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On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine?
Russia for the last 20 years has been trying to rebuild it's Global Influence. I doubt they are going to give up all their progress
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On March 02 2022 16:09 Dav1oN wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 15:27 Mohdoo wrote:On March 02 2022 15:11 Dav1oN wrote:
And once again we're waking up under the rocket fire...city center targeted once again Oh thank god I'm glad you're still ok. I've been stressing out today worrying about you. What city are you in? In Kharkiv, and it's pretty terrifying at the moment
Please stay safe ! And leave further from the frontlines please
On March 02 2022 16:38 AssyrianKing wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? Russia for the last 20 years has been trying to rebuild it's Global Influence. I doubt they are going to give up all their progress
Doesn't matter what the Russians want to when Putin doesn't care about that
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On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine?
What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership?
All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan.
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On March 02 2022 16:38 AssyrianKing wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? Russia for the last 20 years has been trying to rebuild it's Global Influence. I doubt they are going to give up all their progress
Some would argue that they just did it. The mythos of the russian military is done. What do they have left ?
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On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan.
In the future? It could. But definitely not in the near future unless Russia kills or locks up all the people who are aganist them (is that what Putin means with "denazificaton"?) which would be a lot after the invasion. I read from some Ukrainian who said he'll never forget the impact of the nearby bombings and I bet it's the same for many others. It'll be next to impossible to gain trust of the population by normal means.
Then again, I hope it does not get as far and I hope for de-escalation, but how? I don't see it happening sadly - unless from Russians revolting against Putin which puts them at high risk if not done at large scale.
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On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan.
Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced.
What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind?
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7 days to the Rhine my ass. They can't even cross the Dnepr in 7 days. The bear has rotten teeth.
I can only see one possibility to end this quickly and it ends with Putins head in a bag, delivered by his people.
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Zurich15352 Posts
On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan.
I am not sure about Russian victory, but as long as no one else wins, Russia doesn't lose. Since the goal is the destruction of the Ukrainian state, continuous war in Ukraine might be costly, but still within the range of an acceptable outcome, as the prime objective - destruction of the Ukrainian state - is achieved.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan.
1) Ukraine giving up
2) Total destruction of most of the Ukraine
3) Catching/killing prominent figures or them fleeing from the country
They don't(edit> technically they can't) want to occupy Ukraine(at least most of it). Russia doesn't have the military strength required to do so.
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On March 02 2022 17:51 Warfie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced. What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind?
Putin stepping or being forced down is probably the fastest way, but I guess we are talking about scenarios where that doesn't happen.
Beyond that, who knows. There are so many moving pieces in all of this. The only guess I have is that the longer the war goes on, regardless of how it ends, the higher the barrier for Russia to re-enter international community becomes. If Germany develops even concrete plans for replacing Russian energy imports their incentives to lift some of the restrictions become a lot lower. If the war ends tomorrow, it'll be very convenient to return towards 'normal' asap.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 02 2022 18:51 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 17:51 Warfie wrote:On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced. What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind? Putin stepping or being forced down is probably the fastest way, but I guess we are talking about scenarios where that doesn't happen. Beyond that, who knows. There are so many moving pieces in all of this. The only guess I have is that the longer the war goes on, regardless of how it ends, the higher the barrier for Russia to re-enter international community becomes. If Germany develops even concrete plans for replacing Russian energy imports their incentives to lift some of the restrictions become a lot lower. If the war ends tomorrow, it'll be very convenient to return towards 'normal' asap.
What's normal though? pre2008? pre2014? prewar?
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On March 02 2022 18:59 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 18:51 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 17:51 Warfie wrote:On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced. What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind? Putin stepping or being forced down is probably the fastest way, but I guess we are talking about scenarios where that doesn't happen. Beyond that, who knows. There are so many moving pieces in all of this. The only guess I have is that the longer the war goes on, regardless of how it ends, the higher the barrier for Russia to re-enter international community becomes. If Germany develops even concrete plans for replacing Russian energy imports their incentives to lift some of the restrictions become a lot lower. If the war ends tomorrow, it'll be very convenient to return towards 'normal' asap. What's normal though? pre2008? pre2014? prewar?
Exactly.
Edit: If I were to speculate wildly I'd say normal at this point means limited sanctions that hurt some goods trade between Russia and EU countries (and others) but for some funny reason the big countries get to buy Russian gas/oil and house oligarchs and their investments. So 2015-2021 in this case I think. But eventually anything becomes normal, so if the war goes on the normal at some point is the increasing isolation of Russia. Who knows.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 02 2022 19:02 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 18:59 deacon.frost wrote:On March 02 2022 18:51 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 17:51 Warfie wrote:On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced. What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind? Putin stepping or being forced down is probably the fastest way, but I guess we are talking about scenarios where that doesn't happen. Beyond that, who knows. There are so many moving pieces in all of this. The only guess I have is that the longer the war goes on, regardless of how it ends, the higher the barrier for Russia to re-enter international community becomes. If Germany develops even concrete plans for replacing Russian energy imports their incentives to lift some of the restrictions become a lot lower. If the war ends tomorrow, it'll be very convenient to return towards 'normal' asap. What's normal though? pre2008? pre2014? prewar? Exactly. Edit: If I were to speculate wildly I'd say normal at this point means limited sanctions that hurt some goods trade between Russia and EU countries (and others) but for some funny reason the big countries get to buy Russian gas/oil and house oligarchs and their investments. So 2015-2021 in this case I think. But eventually anything becomes normal, so if the war goes on the normal at some point is the increasing isolation of Russia. Who knows.
I can see the following solution
1) Crimea becomes independent country and/or joins Russia
2) NATO declares that Ukraine will never join them
3) Russia declares that Ukraine is free to join any non military pact they want to
4) Both separatist regions stay part of the Ukraine, but they get more freedoms
This should cover what we think Russia wants, should cover most of what is realistically doable and doesn't leave Ukraine totally neutral which should be good for them as well. Not sure what the big people at Moscow/Kyiv want though
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On March 02 2022 17:51 Warfie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced. What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind? I would be very disappointed if the West eases up on sanctions after Russia installs a puppet government. And democratic elections will by definition be basically impossible if Ukraine becomes an unofficial part of Russia.
If Russia backs off to 'only' the 2 peoples republicans and Crimea I could sadly see it happening, even tho Russia certainly does not deserve it.
To truly justify lifting sanctions on Russia it would require them to completely change course. Fully withdraw from everything, replacing the entire upper government for people more conducive to living in peace with their neighbours.
And I don't see a world in which that is happening.
(and no I don't consider a revolution outing Putin a possibility)
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On March 02 2022 19:26 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 19:02 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 18:59 deacon.frost wrote:On March 02 2022 18:51 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 17:51 Warfie wrote:On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced. What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind? Putin stepping or being forced down is probably the fastest way, but I guess we are talking about scenarios where that doesn't happen. Beyond that, who knows. There are so many moving pieces in all of this. The only guess I have is that the longer the war goes on, regardless of how it ends, the higher the barrier for Russia to re-enter international community becomes. If Germany develops even concrete plans for replacing Russian energy imports their incentives to lift some of the restrictions become a lot lower. If the war ends tomorrow, it'll be very convenient to return towards 'normal' asap. What's normal though? pre2008? pre2014? prewar? Exactly. Edit: If I were to speculate wildly I'd say normal at this point means limited sanctions that hurt some goods trade between Russia and EU countries (and others) but for some funny reason the big countries get to buy Russian gas/oil and house oligarchs and their investments. So 2015-2021 in this case I think. But eventually anything becomes normal, so if the war goes on the normal at some point is the increasing isolation of Russia. Who knows. I can see the following solution 1) Crimea becomes independent country and/or joins Russia 2) NATO declares that Ukraine will never join them 3) Russia declares that Ukraine is free to join any non military pact they want to 4) Both separatist regions stay part of the Ukraine, but they get more freedoms This should cover what we think Russia wants, should cover most of what is realistically doable and doesn't leave Ukraine totally neutral which should be good for them as well. Not sure what the big people at Moscow/Kyiv want though What is the point of Russia declaring anything? Their word is literally not worth anything. This would be going back to pre-Crimea annexation in relations and Russia was obviously not content with that.
What Russia wants is to keep Ukraine in their sphere of influence. And a free Ukraine won't do that, triply so at this point.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 02 2022 19:33 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 19:26 deacon.frost wrote:On March 02 2022 19:02 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 18:59 deacon.frost wrote:On March 02 2022 18:51 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 17:51 Warfie wrote:On March 02 2022 17:08 Oukka wrote:On March 02 2022 16:31 Warfie wrote:
To me what's interesting now is what happens after Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine. I believe the current level of sanctions and response from the world has been harsher than expected for Russia, however it still looks like they will push through to depose the Ukrainian gov't and impose a more Kremlin friendly regime. I don't think there's any chance they do not achieve this if they really want to, even with weapons supplied by the West to Ukrainian forces.
What levels of insurgency Ukraine will muster remains to be seen, but what of the sanctions once the main military conflict is over? Will we see sanctions relieved and a normalization if Russia manages to stabilize Ukraine under a puppet regime, or will the world keep Russia isolated?
Right now the sanctions seem to be aimed at "back off or we will ruin you economically", but what will be the prerequisite for lifting sanctions if Russia achieves a post-open-war puppet state Ukraine? What does a Russian military victory look like to you? I at least don't really know. Declare a puppet government in Kyiv? Force the front to Dnieper? Russian flag in all the city halls of the country? Assassination or imprisonment of Ukrainian leadership? All I've seen is that Ukrainians are willing to fight for their country and homes and there is little to no desire to settle for a Russian dictated peace for now. Maybe that changes in the future, but as long as it doesn't any Russian victory looks a lot like the US victory in Afghanistan. Indeed, there are several scenarios and hard to tell which is more likely. But I'm very curious as to the will of the world to keep isolating Russia in case of, say, a scenario similar to US Afghanistan. Will sanctions be lifted then? What will the Western leaders demand if not? If a puppet state is installed, it becomes harder to draw the lines compared to an active military invasion. Demand a fair election? Sure, but elections can be influenced. What does the road to a redeemed Russia look like after a military victory of some kind? Putin stepping or being forced down is probably the fastest way, but I guess we are talking about scenarios where that doesn't happen. Beyond that, who knows. There are so many moving pieces in all of this. The only guess I have is that the longer the war goes on, regardless of how it ends, the higher the barrier for Russia to re-enter international community becomes. If Germany develops even concrete plans for replacing Russian energy imports their incentives to lift some of the restrictions become a lot lower. If the war ends tomorrow, it'll be very convenient to return towards 'normal' asap. What's normal though? pre2008? pre2014? prewar? Exactly. Edit: If I were to speculate wildly I'd say normal at this point means limited sanctions that hurt some goods trade between Russia and EU countries (and others) but for some funny reason the big countries get to buy Russian gas/oil and house oligarchs and their investments. So 2015-2021 in this case I think. But eventually anything becomes normal, so if the war goes on the normal at some point is the increasing isolation of Russia. Who knows. I can see the following solution 1) Crimea becomes independent country and/or joins Russia 2) NATO declares that Ukraine will never join them 3) Russia declares that Ukraine is free to join any non military pact they want to 4) Both separatist regions stay part of the Ukraine, but they get more freedoms This should cover what we think Russia wants, should cover most of what is realistically doable and doesn't leave Ukraine totally neutral which should be good for them as well. Not sure what the big people at Moscow/Kyiv want though What is the point of Russia declaring anything? Their word is literally not worth anything. This would be going back to pre-Crimea annexation in relations and Russia was obviously not content with that. What Russia wants is to keep Ukraine in their sphere of influence. And a free Ukraine won't do that, triply so at this point.
Since 2008 Russia repeatadly stated that Ukraine and Georgia in NATO is for them a safety risk taken very seriously. It's the same is Cuba and possible Russian military base. US wouldn't let Cuba do that. Or Mexico/Canada. There can be UN-based secure policies - e.g. that in case of anybody breaking the points of #2 or #3 then UN gives the countries right to act. Which in the case of Russia breaking their word means no-fly zone and ability to deploy peacekeeping forces under the UN banner.
edit> For them refers to Russia. For the past 14 years Russia is repeating the same thing over and over again. Ukraine and Georgia in NATO is a nogo thing for them. They;re surprisingly consistent about this.
Edit2> Here are sources to the claims:
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This is wrong. Cuban crisis wasnt about Russian bases in Cuba, it was about nuclear weapons being stationed in Cuba. Noone is thinking about stationing nukes in Poland, Lithuania, Latavia, Estonia oven more so in Ukraine. The above analogy is wrong.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 02 2022 20:02 Silvanel wrote:
This is wrong. Cuban crisis wasnt about Russian bases in Cuba, it was about nuclear weapons being stationed in Cuba. Noone is thinking about stationing nukes in Poland, Lithuania, Latavia, Estonia oven more so in Ukraine. The above analogy is wrong.
I didn't say it was the same nor that it's about nuclear weapons.
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On March 02 2022 20:11 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2022 20:02 Silvanel wrote:
This is wrong. Cuban crisis wasnt about Russian bases in Cuba, it was about nuclear weapons being stationed in Cuba. Noone is thinking about stationing nukes in Poland, Lithuania, Latavia, Estonia oven more so in Ukraine. The above analogy is wrong. I didn't say it was the same nor that it's about nuclear weapons.
On March 02 2022 19:40 deacon.frost wrote:
Russia repeatadly stated that Ukraine and Georgia in NATO is for them a safety risk taken very seriously. It's the same is Cuba and possible Russian military base. US wouldn't let Cuba do that.
If you're not going to read your own posts, I don't see why we should either.
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On March 02 2022 19:26 deacon.frost wrote:
I can see the following solution
1) Crimea becomes independent country and/or joins Russia Crimea has essentially been annexed by Russia some 7 years ago. It has already "joined" Russia.
On March 02 2022 19:30 Gorsameth wrote:
If Russia backs off to 'only' the 2 peoples republicans and Crimea I could sadly see it happening, even tho Russia certainly does not deserve it. Unlikely as that is simply the state Ukraine was in before the invasion.
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EPT
