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justanothertownie
16316 Posts
On May 05 2022 05:05 Ghanburighan wrote: Yeah, that's part of the "unreliable ally" perception. What if it's an article 5 decision? That needs to be unanimous. Shall we wait a week? What an incredibly realistic scenario. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany537 Posts
You are right cepo.org is not - their twitter page uses a broken link that gives me a 503 error which led to the believe it was down. Flicking through the articles of that Östlund guy, I am not impressed. But I do understand his thread now. Allies have sent plenty of material that's in active use. Nobody else (except for the usual culprits like HU, and FR exclusively inside NATO) is making these excuses or raising a political fuss. I really hate to do this, since I generally prefer to assume the person I am talking to knows what they are saying, but can I get a source on that? So far, with maybe the exception of poland and slowenia, I am not aware of any nation sending weapons from active service - and those did so under the mentioned guarantees that their capabilities would still be met through substitution with other systems. The polish MIG deal that did not went through is another good example for this kind of deal. Just because a type of weapon is in service, does not mean the system send was taken from troops. The US has much more Abrahams tanks than are in active service for example. In fact, in Estonia, we had people working weekends and around the clock to have everything shipped to UA in 2-3 days (previously, it would take a week for each step of such a process, such as getting permits to move military equipment across a state border). This is matched by larger allies like the US who go from political decisions to shipments in less than a week. Congratulations. So we are shifting the goalpost back to 'germany is not doing things fast enough'? Great, glad we came to an agreement that we are not doing russias bidding... Look, one of the first mistakes of politics is mistaking the world you'd want to live in for the world you live in. Like assuming that every country face the same challenges in this? If only you would take your own words to heart... On May 05 2022 05:05 Ghanburighan wrote: Yeah, that's part of the "unreliable ally" perception. What if it's an article 5 decision? That needs to be unanimous. Shall we wait a week? I am confident that an attack on a nation that does actually have treaties with us that already regulate what is supposed to happen, combined with the fact that there will be some sort of plans already in place for it is a very comparable scenario to this... | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
I'm tired of being brigaded by half a dozen Germans who appear to only be interested in defending their government instead of discussing the conflict. Any comments on the Mariupol article? Long term outlook? | ||
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Artesimo
Germany537 Posts
On May 05 2022 06:54 Ghanburighan wrote: Here's a link to verify that I do in fact know that Estonia sent javelins from active use. The article gets it wrong, actually, we sent our ammo that was meant for training troops. I'm tired of being brigaded by half a dozen Germans who appear to only be interested in defending their government instead of discussing the conflict. Any comments on the Mariupol article? Long term outlook? Maybe you should reconsider your style and kind of posting then... Talk shit, get challenged. And most of the responses I see are in response to things you brought up, so once again, take your own words to heart... While I disagree with some of the responses from other germans, I think my responses have been fair and given you plenty to argue about. How about you respond to the fact that we do seem to be at the centre of multiple attempts to get ukraine weapons, one of my harder hitting points in regards to the accusation that germany 'does not want to help ukraine'. What is your excuse to criticise the possible training of ukrainian troops in germany, that to my knowledge could not be done elsewhere? What is your excuse to say that germany enabling the slovenia sending tanks is not helping? Also, from the article: "At the moment, these missiles are more useful for Estonia's security in defence of Ukraine rather than at a live fire exercise on an Estonian training area," Lieutenant General Martin Herem, Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, said in a statement. As I understand it, this does not mean what you think. As I understand it, this means those javelins were already written off to be spend on a life firing exercise. This is not estonia sacrificing military capabilities. Also, finding 1 country that does indeed send weapons from active service that were supposed to give a certain capability might score you some internet debate point, it does not defeat the bigger point I made: (Potentially almost) no country sends weapons that they need to maintain capability, unless they have some way to replace that capability in the near future. Therefore, it is disingenuous to criticise a single country for it. I have no problem with criticism towards germany, in fact, I admitted to shortcomings. I also admitted to when I was wrong. but criticism has to be grounded in the world we live in, not the world you want. And when you post a 'great twitter thread' that is really just a bunch of guilt tripping and accusations, that seem rather ignorant of history, and at best can be excused as someone smug looking back and judging things from the perspective of how things actually played out, that just happens to support your opinion, what do you expect? I also think I have done an okay job at keeping this ukraine related. If I wanted to actually excuse decisions, I could go way harder into the german internal politics to explain things, but I chose not to. If criticising the decisions of germany in relation to ukraine is on topic, then so is addressing said criticism. EDIT: Also, I just realised that the there was deployment of additional NATO forces to the NATO countries around russia, I am inclined to count that as the same as that 1 country sending some AA systems in exchange for AA systems from germany and the netherland getting redeployed... | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On May 05 2022 08:01 Artesimo wrote: Maybe you should reconsider your style and kind of posting then... Talk shit, get challenged. And most of the responses I see are in response to things you brought up, so once again, take your own words to heart... While I disagree with some of the responses from other germans, I think my responses have been fair and given you plenty to argue about. Fair?! On May 05 2022 05:53 Artesimo wrote: Flicking through the articles of that Östlund guy, I am not impressed. You dismiss a reputable researcher with "I'm not impressed". What am I supposed to do with this? Impress you? You clearly have no idea who any of these people are. But you keep arguing anyway. How about you respond to the fact that we do seem to be at the centre of multiple attempts to get ukraine weapons, one of my harder hitting points in regards to the accusation that germany 'does not want to help ukraine'. What is your excuse to criticise the possible training of ukrainian troops in germany, that to my knowledge could not be done elsewhere? What is your excuse to say that germany enabling the slovenia sending tanks is not helping? That's very simple. You conflate desire and action. It doesn't want to help, but has been coerced to help by massive pressure from allies, opposition, and, thankfully, the majority of Germans. But, the words of Gerard Araud, the foreign policy of Germany is remarkably consistent and rational and is effectively serving its national interests. Germany decided to go all-in on an export-heavy industry dependent on cheap natural resources from Russia, sacrificing European security and many lives for it. It cannot untangle from this quickly. But Germany was not given a choice. So now it's doing something to help Ukraine. Less than most countries, and definitely less than what's expected of the previously de facto leader of Europe on these topics. Someone just said that it's not like Germany was sending Russia weapons. Well, actually, it was, it was sending missile parts and armored vehicles to Russia for this war. Not to mention ammo. And training the special operatives Russia is using in this war. The last of this was blocked in the middle of April this year. I posted the articles earlier. Making money in Russia, including with weapon sales, has been part of German foreign policy alongside purchasing cheap resources. So, now, many powerful lobby groups are against giving up their profits. Once again, foreign pressure is needed to mitigate those voices. The problem that people have with Germany now is that all this fuss with Steinmeier or Melnyk or whatnot, and constant delays with everything is the greatest threat to Western unity on the Ukraine war. Unity is the most precious commodity in diplomacy, and petty squabbles need to be forgotten. Compare this to France, who have great diplomats. They've had their whole special peace negotiations track with Putin, they oppose more US involvement in Europe in NATO, etc. But it hasn't been felt as a problem because when push comes to shove, they work together with allies. No fuss, no serious problems. And, obviously, people are also starting to ask why Germany's promises of deliveries aren't arriving. Where is the stuff? Ukrainians are dying in the last great push by the Russian military, US artillery is now in UA, where's the German stuff? If I don't want to do something, and I cannot say no, I'll delay. I assume Germany is doing the same. And so are many other people I've cited who happen to be experts on this. As I understand it, this does not mean what you think. As I understand it, this means those javelins were already written off to be spend on a life firing exercise. This is not estonia sacrificing military capabilities. You just flat-out understand wrong. Instead of trying to find faults with everything I say to protect your country, try to actually understand what the article says. Herem has a great many other interviews as well. Go read some of those. Or just take it at my word that I know what Estonia has sent. Estonia doesn't have 220m of gear "written off". That's a third of our military budget. Note that I've been posting quite a few different topics today. About Mariupol. About Putin's options. The only things people want to "challenge me" on are related to Germany. This is honestly derailing the thread. With endless posts about how Germany is doing everything right and bad Ukrainians are treating them badly with their bad policies. I'd like people to refocus on what's important. Figuring out what's happening in Ukraine and what the West (that's us) needs to do help them win this war. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany537 Posts
On May 05 2022 08:41 Ghanburighan wrote: Fair?! Specifics?! I am genuinely curious where you felt I was unfair. From my point of view, I stuck to things you actually said, and did not throw any outrageous claims around. Maybe you are confusing me with one of the chaps that attacked you way harsher in regards to your desire to dehumanize people. You dismiss a reputable researcher with "I'm not impressed". What am I supposed to do with this? Impress you? You clearly have no idea who any of these people are. But you keep arguing anyway. I saw that he has a very small number of articles on that site, some of which also feature a very loaded writing style that makes me feel like they are more opinion pieces that articles. He also has a rather low amount of articles compared to other fellows I checked, and on a quick, admittedly lazy, googlesearch I did not find much. I did notice that him not having any background in history fits his ignorant take on it though. He works at a place that is reputable, but I doubt that thread was him speaking in any 'official' capacity, it did not contain any arguments and was basically 'man shouting at screen'. That's very simple. You conflate desire and action. It doesn't want to help, but has been coerced to help by massive pressure from allies, opposition, and, thankfully, the majority of Germans. But, the words of Gerard Araud, the foreign policy of Germany is remarkably consistent and rational and is effectively serving its national interests. Germany decided to go all-in on an export-heavy industry dependent on cheap natural resources from Russia, sacrificing European security and many lives for it. It cannot untangle from this quickly. So we are now admitting that it is actually not possible to ditch it quickly and thus, things like not immediately stopping all russian gas is reasonable, although unfortunate? I am starting to enjoy our disagreements, even though I will never get you to admit it. Also you do this thing where you throw in some baseless accusation, followed up by facts that do not actually support your statement... germany can be economically tied to russia and still support ukraine. Its not like russia can just completely ditch germany either... But Germany was not given a choice. So now it's doing something to help Ukraine. Less than most countries, and definitely less than what's expected of the previously de facto leader of Europe on these topics. Less than some countries is the fairer characterisation I'd say. Which you can say about most countries. Less than what expected I think I can agree on, though I reserve the right to call anyone who expected more military aid ignorant and clueless at best. Someone just said that it's not like Germany was sending Russia weapons. Well, actually, it was, it was sending missile parts and armored vehicles to Russia for this war. Not to mention ammo. And training the special operatives Russia is using in this war. The last of this was blocked in the middle of April this year. I posted the articles earlier. Making money in Russia, including with weapon sales, has been part of German foreign policy alongside purchasing cheap resources. So, now, many powerful lobby groups are against giving up their profits. Once again, foreign pressure is needed to mitigate those voices. I am not in the business of defending other people, so not sure where the relevance is here. But I agree, that was a bad look, I still need to read up on it but it is not a good look and probably inexcusable. Possibly down to contracts and stupid legal memes, but at the very least very stupid and not something that should have happened. The problem that people have with Germany now is that all this fuss with Steinmeier or Melnyk or whatnot, and constant delays with everything is the greatest threat to Western unity on the Ukraine war. Unity is the most precious commodity in diplomacy, and petty squabbles need to be forgotten. Compare this to France, who have great diplomats. They've had their whole special peace negotiations track with Putin, they oppose more US involvement in Europe in NATO, etc. But it hasn't been felt as a problem because when push comes to shove, they work together with allies. No fuss, no serious problems. Macron has been criticised for trying to also negotiate, with the accusation that having many voices instead of one single line is weakening the wests position. And in regards to unity, the in my opinion unreasonable criticism of germany is exactly threatening that. You don't encourage help by slapping someone because he is not helping you in the way you wanted to, and then spit in his face when he tries to do so... I don't think you can go call the uninviting of steinmeier petty squabbles, but also insist that ukraine is right in keeping their line on that (also reminder that even them realised it was a bad move and deny it happened...). And as I more and more learn, this has hurt public opinion as well as discourse a lot it seems... Just as much as you ask germany to respect ukraines internal politics and views on steinmeier, you gotta give the same respect to german internal politics. If you want the super cynical answer: germany is not the one at risk of ceasing to exist, so they are more justified in considering internal fallouts and long term effects. And, obviously, people are also starting to ask why Germany's promises of deliveries aren't arriving. Where is the stuff? Ukrainians are dying in the last great push by the Russian military, US artillery is now in UA, where's the German stuff? If I don't want to do something, and I cannot say no, I'll delay. I assume Germany is doing the same. And so are many other people I've cited who happen to be experts on this. Or maybe, just maybe, the fact that everything and their mother is telling you 'its complicated' is true... Unless your interesting conspiracy theory. The AA system most certainly arrived. The slovenian tanks I don't see confirmation on yet, but that certainly is not only up to germany. Oh and we also could have blocked the czechs sending stuff, but didn't... You gotta realise that initially I too thought that delays where on purpose, but especially recent developments and the fact that I actually know about the poor state of the german armed forces made me change my mind. The german anti tank and AA weapons also certainly arrived without much problems, except for our AA rockets that turned out to be inoperable - another piece of evidence for the poor state of our military and our military stockpile. Not that anyone even remotely familiar with the bundeswehr would need any further evidence. The deal with the dutch panzerhaubite2000 also seems mostly out of our hands, we gotta wait on the dutch for that one is my impression. Oh and the helmet and vests people ridiculed? I saw a lot of footage of ukrainian troops with flecktarn bodyarmour, seems like that stuff also did arrive... This part really demonstrates my issue with you well. Unreasonable accusations, shifting the goal post, false accusations, creative interpretations presented as facts... You just flat-out understand wrong. Instead of trying to find faults with everything I say to protect your country, try to actually understand what the article says. Herem has a great many other interviews as well. Go read some of those. Or just take it at my word that I know what Estonia has sent. Estonia doesn't have 220m of gear "written off". That's a third of our military budget. Like I added, I am inclined to count the increased NATO presence as balancing out those capabilities. And again, since you conveniently ignore that: finding one outlier only scores you debatebro points. If that concerns you, fine, have your point. Estonia might be the 1 exception. The overarching point still stands, with maybe the exception of estonia, no country seems to be willing to weaken its own defensive capabilities for this. And once again, estonia, stronger nato presence, net defensive capabilities probably raised, but I am willing to give you that point. Note that I've been posting quite a few different topics today. About Mariupol. About Putin's options. The only things people want to "challenge me" on are related to Germany. This is honestly derailing the thread. With endless posts about how Germany is doing everything right and bad Ukrainians are treating them badly with their bad policies. I'd like people to refocus on what's important. Figuring out what's happening in Ukraine and what the West (that's us) needs to do help them win this war. I also challenged you on dehumanizing people. Again, not in the business of defending what other people said, just because they are german. I am not our official spokesperson. And if we want to keep this on me, I stick to things that interest me and where I feel I can give some input. 'damn, the situation in mariupol really sucks' is not very interesting to me. I got friends in this war/affected by it and volunteered in a refugee shelter during the first month of the war, I deliberately avoid those topics because of it. I also have admitted fault in the actions of germany. But I can still call someone out for blowing things out of proportion and mischaracterise faults. You do not figure out what to do by assuming some bogus reasons for why things are happening... To me this is about me finding your criticism delusional at times, and I do think people like you do not benefit the situation. Even if I 100% agreed with your posts, I still would see you as hurting my cause because your way of conducting yourself is not how you win anyone over... If you honestly feel like this is derailing too much, do what I did with the dehumanisation topic and just drop out of the conversation. Well actually not quite what I did, admittedly I did get back in there after you threw in that low effort tweet bait, so be a better man than I am  | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Sweden and Finland could have their NATO memberships approved in just two weeks, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said Wednesday, following reports that the countries will jointly express their wish to join the military alliance this month. Støre told Norwegian tabloid newspaper Verdens Gang (VG) NATO has started a process that could bring Sweden and Finland into the alliance in rapid order, should the two countries apply to join. It comes after tabloid newspapers Iltalehti in Finland and Expressen in Sweden reported on April 25, citing sources close to the matter, that the leaders of the two nations intend to meet in the week of May 16, and will subsequently publicly announce their plans to apply to join NATO. In a sign of intensifying talks between the two nations, the prime ministers of Sweden and Finland, Magdalena Andersson and Sanna Marin, met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on May 3 to discuss security issues. Finland's foreign minister, Pekka Haavisto, said on April 29 that it is Finland's wish that "Finland and Sweden can adhere to the same timetable in respect of applying for membership to NATO." Marin recently said that she expected Finland to make up its mind on whether to apply for NATO membership within weeks. The VG newspaper cited diplomatic sources as saying that lengthy talks have been underway between the NATO countries and Sweden and Finland, to shorten the process as much as possible between application and membership. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's staff in Brussels, in cooperation with the alliance's member countries, are trying to shrink this time window as much as possible, VG reported. Newsweek has been unable to independently verify the reports. Source | ||
zatic
Zurich15313 Posts
On May 05 2022 06:54 Ghanburighan wrote: I'm tired of being brigaded by half a dozen Germans who appear to only be interested in defending their government instead of discussing the conflict. Any comments on the Mariupol article? Long term outlook? What a joke. Half your posts in this thread are about Germany. What do you expect? No one brings up Germany other than in calling you out on your bullshit. Why don't you simply start posting about Ukraine instead? Problem solved. A while back you claimed to wanting to stick to the facts. Germany is now the 3rd biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, and remains one of the top providers of aid overall. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker Germany wants to help Ukraine, at the cost of spoiling it's relationship with the genocidal dictator of Russia. It will build back dependencies, and strengthen European security, world food supply, and hope for a rule based world order. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On May 05 2022 15:00 zatic wrote: What a joke. Half your posts in this thread are about Germany. What do you expect? No one brings up Germany other than in calling you out on your bullshit. Why don't you simply start posting about Ukraine instead? Problem solved. This is disingenuous and intellectually dishonest. And you know it. Where's your original input? I'm also still waiting for an apology from you for accusing me of spreading fake news when I wasn't. A while back you claimed to wanting to stick to the facts. Germany is now the 3rd biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, and remains one of the top providers of aid overall. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker Yeah, I was really happy when those commitments were announced, which I posted about here. And then the delays and obfuscation started... Look, everyone wants Germany to be what they say they are. But in the end there's only one measure for it. And that's whether UA has what it needs to fight back the RU aggression. Anyway, new rule, I only respond to people who baselessly accuse me of stuff. Rainer Saks update: Russia is trying to use missiles and artillery to compensate for failures in attacking Donbas and to regain the initiative. - Near Harkiv, Ukrainians took back Staroi Saltov, which is 40km east of Harkiv. This will provide an opportunity to clear the outskirts of Harkiv on the remaining RU units. Also, UA can use this area to attack the rear of the Izyum grouping, and seriously bother the supply lines of the troops trying to advance south from there. The situation isn't yet dangerous for RU troops, but very uncomfortable. RU will surely take steps to change the situation in this area, which will assumedly make life easier for UA troops in other regions of the Donbas. RU has started to amass missile and attack helicopter units near Harkiv. We'll see if this will lead to balance on the battle line or whether UA can sustain the initiative. - RU troops could not manage a large attack near Izyum. This can be attributed to the lack of leadership after their C2 was blown up. Furthermore, units in this area had major casualties. Because this is the area with the largest amount of RU units, we can expect a resumption of attacks in the following days. It was reported yesterday that RU has 22 BTG in the area. That was at the start of the Donbas campaign about 2 weeks ago. Now, despite recent reinforcements, that number has fallen by about 4-5 BTG. - Elsewhere in Donbas RU tried to use prodding attacks and artillery to influence UA troops. There's no sign of progress. - Azovstal in Mariupol was attacked (besides the now standard artillery fire) with infantry and they managed to breach the area of the factory. Some info came out that either an expert on the factory or a head of management betrayed information to the Russians regarding the layout of the defense which RU tried to capitalize on immediately. Most likely this person was evacuated from the factory. Seems believable. It's unlikely RU can conquer the entire complex. Resistance continues. - On the southern front, RU is trying to amass units for an offensive push, but there's no sign of success in days. UA, on the other hand, managed to take back some villages near Kherson, regaining the initiative. Russian missile attacks are trying to destroy UA rail infrastructure. They managed to disrupt but not stop UA logistics. It's now clear that RU cannot stop Western arms shipments to UA. The situation on the front is such that RU is forced to employ limited and low-quality reserves, equipment of decreasing quality. UA weapons and equipment improve each day. We don't have an overview of UA losses, but we should be reaching the point where reserve troops formed at the end of February should be suitable for combat operations. There are more and more reports of RU troops who faced combat and had casualties refusing to rejoin the battle. It's not massive yet, but a growing problem. RU offensive potential has not been expended, but time is working in favour of the Ukrainians. + Show Spoiler + venemaa üritab raketi ja suurtükitule löökidega kompenseerida ebadu Donbassi pealetungis ja saada tagasi initsiatiivi. - Harkivi juures võtsid Ukrainlased tagasi Starõi Saltovi asula, mis asub ca 40 km Harkivist idas. See annab võimaluse puhastada Harkivi ümbrus sinna veel jäänud vene üksustest. Samuti saavad ukrainlased siit võimaluse tungida edasi venelaste Izjumi grupeeringu tagalasse ja väga korralikult häirida Izjumist edasitungi üirtavate üksuste varustamist. Olukord ei ole veel vene sõjajõudude jaoks ohtlik, aga äärmiselt ebamugav. Kindlasti üritab venemaa midagi ette võtta selles piirkonnas olukorra muutmiseks, mis oletatavasti kergendab survet Ukraina üksustele Donbassi muudes lõikudes. Venemaa on hakanud juba Harkivi suunale koondama raketiväe üksuseid ja ründehelikoptereid. Näis, kas siin kujuneb välja uus tasakaal praegustel positsioonidel, või suudab Ukraina siin initsiatiivi hoida. - Izjumi juures vene üksused suurt pealetungi sooritada ei suutnud. Ilmselt valitseb veel juhtimispunktide kaotamisest tingitud võimelangus. Lisaks kandsid siin piirkonnas edasitungivad üksused eelmise nädala teises pooles väga suuri kaotuseid. Kuna piirkonda on koondatud kõige suurem venelaste vägede grupp, siis võiks eeldada pealetungi ürituste jätkumist päevil. Eile levis info, et vene üksuste suuruseks Izjumi juures on 22 PTG. See oli nii Donbassi kampaania alguses ca 2 nädalat tagasi. Nüüdseks on vaatamta vahepeal saabunud täiendusele see arv mõnevõrra kahanenud vähemalt 4-5 PTG võrra. - Mujal Donbassis üritasid vene üksused juba traditsioonilistes kohtades mõjutada ukrainlasi suurtükitulega ning pealetungi üritustega. Ei ole märke, et kusagil oleks selget edasiminekut olnud - Mariupoli Azovstali tehast rünnati lisaks tavapärasele suurtükitulele ka jalaväe üksustega ja suudeti tungida tehase territooriumile. Leidus infobit, et keegi selle tehase asjatundja või juhtkonna liige reetis vene poolele mingid andmed Ukraina kaitse kohta, mida koheselt üritati ära kasutada. Ilmselt kuulus see inimene siis tehasest evakueeritute hulka. Tundub tõepärane. Vaevalt et vene üksused siiski suudavad kogu selle kompleksi ukrainlastelt vallutada. Vastupanu jätkub. - Lõunarindel üritavad vene üksused uut ründformatsiooni püsti saada, kuid viimastel päevadel ei ole mitte kusagil edeneda suudetud. Ukrainlased omakorda võtsid tagasi mõned väiksemad maatükid Hersoni oblasti piiridel. Ehk siis kerge initsiatiiv oli ukrainlaste käes. Venemaa raketilöögid üritavad nüüd meeleheitlikult purustada Ukraina raudtee taristut. Eile küll suudeti osaliselt raudteeliikulst häirida, kuid mitte peatada. Kindlasti ei suudeta enam väärata relvatarneid Ukrainale. Olukord rindel on selline, kus venemaa peab tooma juurde madalakvaliteedilisi ja väga piiratud suurusega reserve, järjest halvema kvaliteediga tehnikat. Ukraina relvastus ja varustus muutub aga pidevalt järjest kvaliteetsemaks. Puudub küll ülevaade Ukraina poole kaotustest, kuid praeguseks peaks sõja alguses moodustama asutud reservüksused olema rindekõlbulikud. Järjest rohkem leidub ka teavet selle kohta, et lahingus käinud ja kaotusi kandnud vene üksused keelduvad uuesti lahingusse minema. See ei ole veel massiline, kuid probleem selgelt kasvab. Vene vägede ründepotentsiaal ei ole siiski ammendunud, kuid aeg töötab selgelt Ukraina kasuks. | ||
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Artesimo
Germany537 Posts
On May 05 2022 15:00 zatic wrote: A while back you claimed to wanting to stick to the facts. Germany is now the 3rd biggest provider of military aid to Ukraine, and remains one of the top providers of aid overall. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker Germany wants to help Ukraine, at the cost of spoiling it's relationship with the genocidal dictator of Russia. It will build back dependencies, and strengthen European security, world food supply, and hope for a rule based world order. You don't understand, germany doesn't actually want to help, they are forced into this position. They are saruman and if they are not its only because they have not revealed their pact with sauron to gandalf just yet. Don't judge germany by its actions, judge it by its past actions and current intentions, which only I can see the true nature of. On the link you posted, I am extremely surprised by the US being so low in the per GDP graphs. I have seen accusations that the US initially seemed more concerned with seeing russia bleed, and that it was european nations that seemed more committed to being in it for ukraine to win. Not sure if those graphs actually support those claims, or if its just because the US dwarfs other countries economy that much and spending an amount comparable in per GDP would just be unreasonable / inefficient. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
Good news from Germany: As Germany's highest representative to date, Bundestag President Bärbel Bas wants to travel to Kyiv. A spokeswoman said she wanted to go to Ukraine at the invitation of her Ukrainian counterpart, Ruslan Stefanchuk, to commemorate all the victims of World War II with him and to hold political talks. The World War II commemoration in Ukraine is on May 8th, so next Sunday. Source And even more: | ||
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mounteast0
59 Posts
On May 03 2022 21:30 justanothertownie wrote: No, we very much do not. Actually I doubt anyone here agrees with you on that. A first step for that would be to produce proof for the allegation that Ukrainian nazis (unlike their Russian counter parts) are embraced at the state level. I am not holding my breath though. In an attempt to stop a flame war, I present you the diversion flame war lead, please do flame war on this topic instead. In the case of neo-nazis claim of Ukraine, my position is I don't care all that much. Nazis, far right, white supremacist, fundamentalist, (ultra) nationist etc, they are all very similar if you are not on academic discussion. So when I heard the "neo-nazis" in Ukraine, I was thinking, "ok, I guess every country have some psycopath..." But I was not really try to dig into whether the claim is true, especially consider that the "far right" / nationalist (if you use a more general / wide interpretation) is happening all over the world anyways. Also even ukraine have neo-nazis, that does not mean russia have to right to attack ukraine, or the actual reason of attack is as such. However, as for how far / deep of the "neo-nazis" in urkraine is concern, I guess that is deeper than what the western, mainstream, respectable media is potrating, unfortunately. In the linked article, Zelensky go to the Greece parliment (on 7 april) and give a speech, then show a video of a solider, which provoked a strong reaction from the member of greek parliament. In the article, the greek claimed the azos battalion neonazis. I guess if the greek call them neo-nazis, they are likely somewhat close to that. I do not know greek, so I am not able to verify the primary source. But if this article's claim is true (i.e the greek did claim azos battalion neo nazis, then I think it is fairly safe to say the neo-nazis in urkraine is a bit more widespread than "just a few individual". Furthermore, if the president show something to a parliament of a foreign country, it might an indication that, in the eyes of that country, the thing being widely acceptable / endorsed. If the below qouted article is utter bs, I am willing to apologize to anyone being offended by this post. (partial) Quote of the article: Addressing the Greek parliament via videoconference, Zelenskyy called on Athens to put pressure on the EU to adopt stricter sanctions against Moscow. However, a video showing a member of the Azov Battalion, which was broadcast to Greek lawmakers right after Zelenskyy’s speech, has triggered strong reactions in Athens. “The speech of members of the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion in the Greek Parliament is a provocation. The absolute responsibility lies with the Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He talked about a historic day, but it is a historic shame. The solidarity with the Ukrainian people is a given. But the Nazis cannot have a say in Parliament,” Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras posted on Facebook. source https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/zelenskyy-speech-at-greek-parliament-overshadowed-by-azov-video/ | ||
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Artesimo
Germany537 Posts
On May 05 2022 19:18 mounteast0 wrote: + Show Spoiler + In an attempt to stop a flame war, I present you the diversion flame war lead, please do flame war on this topic instead. In the case of neo-nazis claim of Ukraine, my position is I don't care all that much. Nazis, far right, white supremacist, fundamentalist, (ultra) nationist etc, they are all very similar if you are not on academic discussion. So when I heard the "neo-nazis" in Ukraine, I was thinking, "ok, I guess every country have some psycopath..." But I was not really try to dig into whether the claim is true, especially consider that the "far right" / nationalist (if you use a more general / wide interpretation) is happening all over the world anyways. Also even ukraine have neo-nazis, that does not mean russia have to right to attack ukraine, or the actual reason of attack is as such. However, as for how far / deep of the "neo-nazis" in urkraine is concern, I guess that is deeper than what the western, mainstream, respectable media is potrating, unfortunately. In the linked article, Zelensky go to the Greece parliment (on 7 april) and give a speech, then show a video of a solider, which provoked a strong reaction from the member of greek parliament. In the article, the greek claimed the azos battalion neonazis. I guess if the greek call them neo-nazis, they are likely somewhat close to that. I do not know greek, so I am not able to verify the primary source. But if this article's claim is true (i.e the greek did claim azos battalion neo nazis, then I think it is fairly safe to say the neo-nazis in urkraine is a bit more widespread than "just a few individual". Furthermore, if the president show something to a parliament of a foreign country, it might an indication that, in the eyes of that country, the thing being widely acceptable / endorsed. If the below qouted article is utter bs, I am willing to apologize to anyone being offended by this post. (partial) Quote of the article: Addressing the Greek parliament via videoconference, Zelenskyy called on Athens to put pressure on the EU to adopt stricter sanctions against Moscow. However, a video showing a member of the Azov Battalion, which was broadcast to Greek lawmakers right after Zelenskyy’s speech, has triggered strong reactions in Athens. “The speech of members of the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion in the Greek Parliament is a provocation. The absolute responsibility lies with the Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He talked about a historic day, but it is a historic shame. The solidarity with the Ukrainian people is a given. But the Nazis cannot have a say in Parliament,” Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras posted on Facebook. source https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/zelenskyy-speech-at-greek-parliament-overshadowed-by-azov-video/ Mariupol by then had become a symbol for ukrainian reistance and the dire situation, as well as the destruction that the russian invasion has brought with it. Showing a video of someone from the batallion that is defending mariupol to me makes sense. The azov regiment itself has also changed, there are still nazi in their ranks, as well as in their leadership, but they do have come a long way from their initial founding. A good overview is this washington post article, the TLDR is pretty much what I just said. The azov battalion still has neo nazis in their ranks for various reasons, but most of the overt and extreme right wingers have left for politics. Their past means they will remain an attractive unit for nazis for quite a while. From my personal assessment, they are still problematic, but have come a lot closer to the levels of nationalism and right wing sentiments that you expect to find within the military in general, and militias in particular, which they have their roots in. But even if they would be the most overt SS Totenkopf flag waving lunatics, it is impossible to acknowledge their influence on the defence of mariupol. I was not able to find the exact video he showed, but my guess is that it is not some SS flag waving lunatic, but instead some soldier from the azov batallion, that may subscribe to some nazi ideology, but is strictly talking about the situation in mariupol in that vid. To that, I don't really have any objection, given that if you want to get a picture of the situation for soldiers in mariupol, you probably have to ask someone from the azov battalion. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4692 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
As for volunteers - can't say about other regions, heard that they are sending some, but in my city recruitment stations aren't very eager on that. One of my friends (former paratrooper with combat experience in Chechnya) tried to apply twice, but was denied. Though there is increased advertisement of the proffessional military service (or "service by contract" as it's called here). Wagner also often advertises itself in Russian Telegram channels (despite being oficcialy non-existant). Knowledgeable people told me that it's preferrable for those who actually want to fight, since the pay (for the regular grunt at least) is similar to the service by contract, but there is less drill, formality and unnecessary stuff, than in regular army. Also about popular support - there is quite a lot of crowdfunding, both humanitarian and on a war effort, within Russa, mostly for LDPR, but I saw delieveries to the Russian Army units as well. I wasn't tracking the numbers much, but just one of many volunteer organizations over last 1,5 month reported the delivery of 150 differen UAVs (mostly Mavics of different classes), along with huge bunch of clothing, batteries, sights, food and medical supplies etc. According to their reports, the amount of money collected was around 2 million dollars (well, at the current exchange rate at least). | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
Now about the Azov battalion. They're the favourite target for RU to bash, but most of it is lies. Here's their leader in an interview: In the British newspaper The Telegraph , in the summer of 2014, an article appeared in which you said: "The historical mission of our people at this critical moment is to lead the white races of the world in the final crusade for their survival. A crusade against Semitic-led subhumanity" . Hence two questions. Are you an anti-Semite and a racist? And if you didn't say that, did you sue The Telegraph? ... – Am I an adherent of racism and anti-Semitism? No, I am not. Moreover, if you ask which countries I consider examples for the development of Ukraine in the next 20 years, then this is primarily Israel and Japan. Consequently, both racism and anti-Semitism fall away. Now about the quote and about The Telegraph, in fact - a very yellow newspaper. ... – This statement was made during one of the international forums by [Sergey] Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. He was the first to utter this nonsense, without even explaining where he got it. And then everyone started referring to it. The origin of this phrase is not at all clear. There is no source. Lavrov said this, so, sorry, this is his quote, not mine. This nonsense has nothing to do with me. Source Are there neo-nazis in Azov? I think we can say certainly. But there are probably some nazis in every fighting force in the world. And they are a nationalist party, as in, right-wing. Is it nazism the Azov battalion's ideology? Are they trying to rid Ukraine of Jews or Russians? Absolutely not. They're a regional force. It was a private well-funded militia that basically single-handedly took back Mariupol in 2015. And has been fighting the RU southern offensive ever since. Because of this, a large part of their fighters are Russian speakers in Ukraine. Here's a good overview by the BBC on the topic that I have bookmarked, start at the 2 minute mark There's also the cynical view that after what's been happening in Mariupol, this problem might disappear in a few days... But let's hope not. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On May 05 2022 19:47 Ardias wrote: Regarding mobilization - of course we could be up for a surprise, but I don't think it'll happen on the May 9th. Even the spring conscription, that started on the April 1st, has the same number of conscripts required as the last year. As for volunteers - can't say about other regions, heard that they are sending some, but in my city recruitment stations aren't very eager on that. One of my friends (former paratrooper with combat experience in Chechnya) tried to apply twice, but was denied. Though there is increased advertisement of the proffessional military service (or "service by contract" as it's called here). Wagner also often advertises itself in Russian Telegram channels (despite being oficcialy non-existant). Knowledgeable people told me that it's preferrable for those who actually want to fight, since the pay (for the regular grunt at least) is similar to the service by contract, but there is less drill, formality and unnecessary stuff, than in regular army. Also about popular support - there is quite a lot of crowdfunding, both humanitarian and on a war effort, within Russa, mostly for LDPR, but I saw delieveries to the Russian Army units as well. I wasn't tracking the numbers much, but just one of many volunteer organizations over last 1,5 month reported the delivery of 150 differen UAVs (mostly Mavics of different classes), along with huge bunch of clothing, batteries, sights, food and medical supplies etc. According to their reports, the amount of money collected was around 2 million dollars (well, at the current exchange rate at least). The fact that they're denying vets is quite telling if it's happening more generally. But this supports the slowly developing view that mobilization is probably not a solution for RU. If Putin just declared victory on the 9th (UA's military and infrastructure is sufficiently battered to be demilitarized, and there's now a land bridge for Crimea, and a bit of buffer for Donetsk and Lugansk), how do you think people in RU would react? | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On May 05 2022 19:57 Ghanburighan wrote: The fact that they're denying vets is quite telling if it's happening more generally. But this supports the slowly developing view that mobilization is probably not a solution for RU. If Putin just declared victory on the 9th (UA's military and infrastructure is sufficiently battered to be demilitarized, and there's now a land bridge for Crimea, and a bit of buffer for Donetsk and Lugansk), how do you think people in RU would react? I believe that it would be more likely to happen, if our forces controlled the whole territory of Lugansk and Donetsk regions in their administrative borders. 9th May is the symbolic date, but I don't think it's symbolic enough in this case. My take is that Russian Army will at least attempt to close the Donbass pocket first, before declaring anything. Edit: as for reaction - well, there would be a relief of course. Pro-western people would probably start to hope that everything will come around sooner or later (not that it will actually, but it's in human psychology to hope for the best), and a lot of patriots, I guess, would be content with what was achieved already. If there is any counter-reaction, it will be much more mild, than if our troops would suddenly pulled off from Ukraine completely. Also the interesting note - my friend in Kherson says that there are rumors that at least one of their internet providers will be Donetsk-based Phoenix. Though Rostelecom (the most common internet provider in Russia) already has infrastructure in place, and even UNIAN reported that at least one Ukrainian provider is working there through it. https://t.me/uniannet/51656 | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6701 Posts
On May 05 2022 20:14 Ardias wrote: I believe that it would be more likely to happen, if our forces controlled the whole territory of Lugansk and Donetsk regions in their administrative borders. 9th May is the symbolic date, but I don't think it's symbolic enough in this case. My take is that Russian Army will at least attempt to close the Donbass pocket first, before declaring anything. Edit: as for reaction - well, there would be a relief of course. Pro-western people would probably start to hope that everything will come around sooner or later (not that it will actually, but it's in human psychology to hope for the best), and a lot of patriots, I guess, would be content with what was achieved already. If there is any counter-reaction, it will be much more mild, than if our troops would suddenly pulled off from Ukraine completely. Also the interesting note - my friend in Kherson says that there are rumors that at least one of their internet providers will be Donetsk-based Phoenix. Though Rostelecom (the most common internet provider in Russia) has already has infrastructure in place, and even UNIAN reported that at least one Ukrainian provider is working there through it. https://t.me/uniannet/51656 It would make sense though. Putin declares victory of his special operation, successfully "freeing" those regions of "nazis" and claiming it as Russian land. Then when UA is fighting to get those regions back, Putin will put it like "they attacked us out of nowhere and for no reason at all. They started a war but we will defend ourselves" | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On May 05 2022 21:39 Harris1st wrote: It would make sense though. Putin declares victory of his special operation, successfully "freeing" those regions of "nazis" and claiming it as Russian land. Then when UA is fighting to get those regions back, Putin will put it like "they attacked us out of nowhere and for no reason at all. They started a war but we will defend ourselves" Oh, I'm not saying it wouldn't. Actually, incorporating these terriories into Russia gives him internal excuse to use conscripts in defence of them (because for our population they wouldn't be sent to fight in Ukraine, they would be sent to defend the territories of Donetsk, Lugansk and Kherson oblasts (Russian/Ukrainian for "regions") of Russian Federation). But one of the big points in negotiations from the beginning was "Independence of Lugansk and Donetsk Peoples Republics in the administrative borders of Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts of Ukraine". And for the time being I believe Russia will cling to that. Also there was an announcement (like couple of weeks ago) that Russia intends to create land corridor to Transistria. Though this announcement was made just by the Deputy commander of the Central Military District, not by Kremlin officials. So if something goes south, they could say that "it was his personal opinion" or something. | ||
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