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United States44355 Posts
On June 14 2025 03:20 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2025 03:09 KwarK wrote:On June 14 2025 01:51 Nebuchad wrote:On June 14 2025 01:35 Mohdoo wrote:On June 14 2025 01:17 Legan wrote:
Weirdly, people are worried that China will increase its global influence when it is hard to say where Western countries are using their influence. How is influence making the world any better currently? Both Gaza and this situation seem obvious cases for using influence. You can, of course, make the case that the missiles and air defence systems are the influence. Who is left after Iran? Entirely depends on who Israel chooses to attack, it'll be that one that is left. This is a weird framing where Israel is just choosing to attack places and that any country could be chosen, regardless of their relations with Israel. If I'm understanding you correctly you'd think it could easily be Jordan, for example, if Israel choose Jordan next. I don't think they're just choosing places at random. If we look at the wars Israel has been fighting all of the other sides have had something in common, they were all already at war with Israel. We've got Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iran, and in none of those cases did Israel just choose them. Given that all of the other parties all have something in common, they were all preexisting parties in the war, I would propose a rival theory, Israel is only pursuing war with the groups it is at war with. They're not choosing these groups. I don't see many enemies left for them. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq have all basically normalized relations with Israel. There isn't any ongoing war there. It'd be weird if Israel decided to start one. I don't want to put words in your mouth so please expand upon your theory. Who does Israel attack after Iran and why? I feel like they're out of enemies after Iran (or more likely that there is no after Iran, Iran works as a permawar). Essentially my argument is that the risk of finding yourself at war with Israel is dramatically increased by declaring war on Israel. Most likely Lebanon or Syria. The reason will be self-defense, there's going to be some reason why Israel must protect itself from its evil neighbor.
Historically the conflict with Lebanon has been driven by Hezbollah who seem to be neutered. In a hypothetical in which Iran doesn't rebuild them (this is post Iran defeat) are you imagining that they find a new sponsor or that Israel attacks the internationally recognized government of Lebanon? Also I think only the latter scenario would count as you being right, a Hezbollah rematch wouldn't be Israel arbitrarily choosing a war. That'd be within the "Israel fighting groups it's at war with" framework rather than "choosing groups and starting wars" framework.
Syria feels more likely than Lebanon because Syria post civil war has nothing like the international recognition and legitimacy of Lebanon. Not going to rule it out but I don't expect it. Save this reply I guess and we'll see what happens. If Israel defeats Iran, gets bored, and randomly invades Syria then quote this and I'll recognize your superior foresight. Assuming that no group takes control over Syria and declares war on Israel first, if that happens then we're still in a world where Israel is going around ending fights with people who have been attacking it.
Also I meant the real why, in your hypothetical. Every nation that has ever gone to war has claimed some flavour of self defence but you're saying that Israel is going to start one and that it'll be a pretext. What's the real why? Land? Oil? Netanyahu needing yet another war?
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On June 14 2025 03:33 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2025 03:20 Nebuchad wrote:On June 14 2025 03:09 KwarK wrote:On June 14 2025 01:51 Nebuchad wrote:On June 14 2025 01:35 Mohdoo wrote:On June 14 2025 01:17 Legan wrote:
Weirdly, people are worried that China will increase its global influence when it is hard to say where Western countries are using their influence. How is influence making the world any better currently? Both Gaza and this situation seem obvious cases for using influence. You can, of course, make the case that the missiles and air defence systems are the influence. Who is left after Iran? Entirely depends on who Israel chooses to attack, it'll be that one that is left. This is a weird framing where Israel is just choosing to attack places and that any country could be chosen, regardless of their relations with Israel. If I'm understanding you correctly you'd think it could easily be Jordan, for example, if Israel choose Jordan next. I don't think they're just choosing places at random. If we look at the wars Israel has been fighting all of the other sides have had something in common, they were all already at war with Israel. We've got Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iran, and in none of those cases did Israel just choose them. Given that all of the other parties all have something in common, they were all preexisting parties in the war, I would propose a rival theory, Israel is only pursuing war with the groups it is at war with. They're not choosing these groups. I don't see many enemies left for them. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq have all basically normalized relations with Israel. There isn't any ongoing war there. It'd be weird if Israel decided to start one. I don't want to put words in your mouth so please expand upon your theory. Who does Israel attack after Iran and why? I feel like they're out of enemies after Iran (or more likely that there is no after Iran, Iran works as a permawar). Essentially my argument is that the risk of finding yourself at war with Israel is dramatically increased by declaring war on Israel. Most likely Lebanon or Syria. The reason will be self-defense, there's going to be some reason why Israel must protect itself from its evil neighbor. Historically the conflict with Lebanon has been driven by Hezbollah who seem to be neutered. In a hypothetical in which Iran doesn't rebuild them (this is post Iran defeat) are you imagining that they find a new sponsor or that Israel attacks the internationally recognized government of Lebanon? Also I think only the latter scenario would count as you being right, a Hezbollah rematch wouldn't be Israel arbitrarily choosing a war. That'd be within the "Israel fighting groups it's at war with" framework rather than "choosing groups and starting wars" framework. Syria feels more likely than Lebanon because Syria post civil war has nothing like the international recognition and legitimacy of Lebanon. Not going to rule it out but I don't expect it. Save this reply I guess and we'll see what happens. If Israel defeats Iran, gets bored, and randomly invades Syria then quote this and I'll recognize your superior foresight. Assuming that no group takes control over Syria and declares war on Israel first, if that happens then we're still in a world where Israel is going around ending fights with people who have been attacking it.
Already been done a few months ago
On February 12 2025 07:56 Nebuchad wrote:
Well it looks like Israel has a good shot at succeeding at ethnically cleansing Palestine, so if that comes to pass we'll have our answer then. If they stop there and live in peace with their neighbors, I'll have been wrong, and you'll have been right. If instead it turns out that Arabs are still a very big threat to Israel's existence because of their antisemitism, and that unfortunately forces Israel's hand and they have to take more land from the Arabs in self-defense, then I hope you'll remember this interaction.
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United States44355 Posts
On June 14 2025 03:35 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2025 07:56 Nebuchad wrote:
Well it looks like Israel has a good shot at succeeding at ethnically cleansing Palestine, so if that comes to pass we'll have our answer then. If they stop there and live in peace with their neighbors, I'll have been wrong, and you'll have been right. If instead it turns out that Arabs are still a very big threat to Israel's existence because of their antisemitism, and that unfortunately forces Israel's hand and they have to take more land from the Arabs in self-defense, then I hope you'll remember this interaction.
That doesn't count and you know that.
What you've done is
1. Take a war that is very much ongoing
2. Declare that it is over, despite a total absence of evidence or it being over
3. Declare that if it appears that it wasn't over then this is actually a brand new war
4. Predict with confidence that there is going to be a brand new war
The sun will set at noon today.
The sun will rise at noon today.
It's light outside.
I'm a genius.
Edit: Better comparison
In mid 1944 declaring that the war in Europe appears to be won but the warmongering Americans want to be at war so badly that they'll probably just start a war with Japan.
In early 1945 declaring that it came to pass.
In 2023 they were at war with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. They've been fighting them non stop. Predicting in 2025 that in 2025 they would be at war with Hamas, Hezbollah (don't think they formally surrendered), the Houthis, and Iran, does not count as a prediction.
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Iran finally responding with the big guns. 300 missiles launched and counting, videos of hits inside Tel Aviv. Its going to be a long night
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You misunderstand, I just said that I've already saved the post like you asked me to do there
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United States44355 Posts
On June 14 2025 03:57 Nebuchad wrote:
You misunderstand, I just said that I've already saved the post like you asked me to do there
Still not understanding but I'll take your word for it. My bad.
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Israel has already attacked Syria. They didn't even defend themselves, they defended a minority in Syria. Syria was not at war with Israel and tried very hard not to get in their cross hairs. Israel still took their land and attacked their sovereignity. They also attacked Lebanon, because no matter how much you say Hezbollah, the land they conquer afterwards is not hezbollan, it's Lebanese.
Iran certainly is at war with Israel. Still it's always Israel that pushes them again and again and again. Are they going to end Irans support of shiite militias? No? So why even keep the war going? I guess they have to keep reminding Iran why Iran should keep being at war with them, so that they may never lose their opponent.
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On June 14 2025 04:23 Broetchenholer wrote:
Israel has already attacked Syria. They didn't even defend themselves, they defended a minority in Syria. Syria was not at war with Israel and tried very hard not to get in their cross hairs. Israel still took their land and attacked their sovereignity. They also attacked Lebanon, because no matter how much you say Hezbollah, the land they conquer afterwards is not hezbollan, it's Lebanese.
Iran certainly is at war with Israel. Still it's always Israel that pushes them again and again and again. Are they going to end Irans support of shiite militias? No? So why even keep the war going? I guess they have to keep reminding Iran why Iran should keep being at war with them, so that they may never lose their opponent.
(I know you know this) The reason why they keep the war going is because that's what they want to do, that's their goal. The Netanyahu government is not afraid, their hand isn't forced, they actively want all of this. All of the things we think are bad, the dead children, the populations displaced, they dream of it. To them only positive things have happened.
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On June 14 2025 04:23 Broetchenholer wrote:
Israel has already attacked Syria. They didn't even defend themselves, they defended a minority in Syria. Syria was not at war with Israel and tried very hard not to get in their cross hairs. Israel still took their land and attacked their sovereignity. They also attacked Lebanon, because no matter how much you say Hezbollah, the land they conquer afterwards is not hezbollan, it's Lebanese.
Iran certainly is at war with Israel. Still it's always Israel that pushes them again and again and again. Are they going to end Irans support of shiite militias? No? So why even keep the war going? I guess they have to keep reminding Iran why Iran should keep being at war with them, so that they may never lose their opponent.
The fact that Israel attacked non-Iranian countries is not an indicator peace isn't possible. This isn't me trying to argue the only problem is Iran and Israel is some peace loving nation. That is of course not true. But I am saying just like how Russia had been friendly/neutral with various European nations until recently, the same is also true of Israel with some of their neighbors. Israel is not in military conflict with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, UAE, etc
I am saying there is a path to peace. I don't think its reasonable to say Israel has plans to conquer Saudi Arabia and Egypt for example. It feels a little bad faith to pretend Israel will just permanently be at war with everyone forever and there are no mechanisms for peace with Israel.
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United States44355 Posts
On June 14 2025 04:23 Broetchenholer wrote:
Still it's always Israel that pushes them again and again and again.
Very strange take. Iran sponsors Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, pretty much anyone willing to take the blame for firing Iranian missiles. Everyone knows this. Israel has been subjected to literally tens of thousands of rocket attacks over the last few years. That's why the Iron Dome exists. It's become so routine for Iranian proxies (or Iran itself) to attack Israel daily that maybe you forgot about it. Israelis haven't though.
There's one side that pushes constantly but it's absolutely not Israel.
Did you genuinely not know how frequently Iranian armed proxies attack Israel? It's unceasing.
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On June 14 2025 06:44 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2025 04:23 Broetchenholer wrote:
Still it's always Israel that pushes them again and again and again. + Show Spoiler +Very strange take. Iran sponsors Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, pretty much anyone willing to take the blame for firing Iranian missiles. Everyone knows this. Israel has been subjected to literally tens of thousands of rocket attacks over the last few years. That's why the Iron Dome exists. It's become so routine for Iranian proxies (or Iran itself) to attack Israel daily that maybe you forgot about it. Israelis haven't though. There's one side that pushes constantly but it's absolutely not Israel. + Show Spoiler +Did you genuinely not know how frequently Iranian armed proxies attack Israel? It's unceasing.
That's weird to say about a country that is illegally invading/occupying land and expanding.
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United States44355 Posts
On June 14 2025 07:03 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2025 06:44 KwarK wrote:On June 14 2025 04:23 Broetchenholer wrote:
Still it's always Israel that pushes them again and again and again. + Show Spoiler +Very strange take. Iran sponsors Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, pretty much anyone willing to take the blame for firing Iranian missiles. Everyone knows this. Israel has been subjected to literally tens of thousands of rocket attacks over the last few years. That's why the Iron Dome exists. It's become so routine for Iranian proxies (or Iran itself) to attack Israel daily that maybe you forgot about it. Israelis haven't though. There's one side that pushes constantly but it's absolutely not Israel. + Show Spoiler +Did you genuinely not know how frequently Iranian armed proxies attack Israel? It's unceasing.
That's weird to say about a country that is illegally invading/occupying land and expanding.
I don't think you're following the conversation and that's okay. You're trying your best.
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On June 14 2025 05:45 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2025 04:23 Broetchenholer wrote:
Israel has already attacked Syria. They didn't even defend themselves, they defended a minority in Syria. Syria was not at war with Israel and tried very hard not to get in their cross hairs. Israel still took their land and attacked their sovereignity. They also attacked Lebanon, because no matter how much you say Hezbollah, the land they conquer afterwards is not hezbollan, it's Lebanese.
Iran certainly is at war with Israel. Still it's always Israel that pushes them again and again and again. Are they going to end Irans support of shiite militias? No? So why even keep the war going? I guess they have to keep reminding Iran why Iran should keep being at war with them, so that they may never lose their opponent. I am saying there is a path to peace. I don't think its reasonable to say Israel has plans to conquer Saudi Arabia and Egypt for example. It feels a little bad faith to pretend Israel will just permanently be at war with everyone forever and there are no mechanisms for peace with Israel.
Obviously there is a path to peace, that path just happens not to be "giving the fascistic dudes everything they want". What happens when you do that is they move on to new goals. There is a reason why the saying doesn't go "First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then we all went home and lived happily ever after."
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Some pretty major missile strikes just hit Tel Aviv. This is a pretty wild thing to witness. Not just the tragedy of life lost, but realizing Iran has concluded they have nothing to lose and may as well go down fighting.
This was the gist of what I was predicting would happen because Iran has no actual sovereignty or power until they get a nuke.
And I think even if we assume the whole conflict is Israel's fault, once Iran became as committed as they are to destroying Israel, I don't think anyone is surprised Israel decided it was intolerable for Iran to ever get a nuke. That's basically the most irreconcilable difference they could possibly have. The core issue of having a nuke did not allow for any wiggle room. Iran would just continue to get chipped away at without one. Israel was unwilling to let them have one. And so it comes to this.
The attack underway against Israel is just not the kinda thing that gets de-escalated. We are probably seeing the beginning of the end of Khomeini. Maybe he's already dead as I type this. I wonder what comes next for Iran.
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United States44355 Posts
Neither has any interest or capability in actually occupying the territory of the other. Nor do they have any competing economic interests. Nor any shared borders. No regime ending damage is taking place.
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On June 14 2025 07:41 KwarK wrote:
Neither has any interest or capability in actually occupying the territory of the other. Nor do they have any competing economic interests. Nor any shared borders. No regime ending damage is taking place.
I'm not so sure. I suppose I am saying I think Israel is going to respond with so much damage that regime change will likely take place incidentally. Israel doesn't need to occupy Iran to achieve their goals. Just tearing the place apart and leaving it unable to do anything is a thumbs up from their perspective. Just leaving Iran as a broken nation needing aid feels like where Israel is currently headed. Based on the current damage being reported, I think Israel is just going to keep hammering until Iran stops responding. And with Iran using their latest and greatest missiles, I think they have nothing to lose.
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United States44355 Posts
On June 14 2025 07:44 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2025 07:41 KwarK wrote:
Neither has any interest or capability in actually occupying the territory of the other. Nor do they have any competing economic interests. Nor any shared borders. No regime ending damage is taking place. I'm not so sure. I suppose I am saying I think Israel is going to respond with so much damage that regime change will likely take place incidentally. Israel doesn't need to occupy Iran to achieve their goals. Just tearing the place apart and leaving it unable to do anything is a thumbs up from their perspective. Just leaving Iran as a broken nation needing aid feels like where Israel is currently headed. Based on the current damage being reported, I think Israel is just going to keep hammering until Iran stops responding. And with Iran using their latest and greatest missiles, I think they have nothing to lose.
Let's assume you're right. In the broken Iran it's still the IRGC with all the guns. There's a point where regime security starts going up as things get worse, like NK for example. That's why I said yesterday that doing nothing is better for Israel, the Iranian middle class is who they're depending upon for a revolution.
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On June 14 2025 07:45 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2025 07:44 Mohdoo wrote:On June 14 2025 07:41 KwarK wrote:
Neither has any interest or capability in actually occupying the territory of the other. Nor do they have any competing economic interests. Nor any shared borders. No regime ending damage is taking place. I'm not so sure. I suppose I am saying I think Israel is going to respond with so much damage that regime change will likely take place incidentally. Israel doesn't need to occupy Iran to achieve their goals. Just tearing the place apart and leaving it unable to do anything is a thumbs up from their perspective. Just leaving Iran as a broken nation needing aid feels like where Israel is currently headed. Based on the current damage being reported, I think Israel is just going to keep hammering until Iran stops responding. And with Iran using their latest and greatest missiles, I think they have nothing to lose. Let's assume you're right. In the broken Iran it's still the IRGC with all the guns. There's a point where regime security starts going up as things get worse, like NK for example. That's why I said yesterday that doing nothing is better for Israel, the Iranian middle class is who they're depending upon for a revolution.
Yeah, that's fair. I think Israel's general idea is to just leave Iran so weakened it doesn't really matter what they do. I think the fact still remains that Israel intends to completely remove the ability to pursue nukes. So I think until that is done, we're probably just going to keep seeing more and more strikes. Netanyahu said 2 weeks of strikes have been planned, but that could just be bluster
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How many countries have successfully been bombed into becoming liberal Western democracies? Especially without any ground forces occupying the country. Also, I doubt that Iran's national strategic interests disappear even if their leadership changes. Why would they give up their sources of regional influence? Any pivot would only benefit in a decade or two, as there would be turmoil over the changes. It seems naive to expect other regional powers not to try to abuse the situation, especially when everyone in the region is known for upholding human rights.
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On June 14 2025 08:58 Legan wrote:
How many countries have successfully been bombed into becoming liberal Western democracies? Especially without any ground forces occupying the country. Also, I doubt that Iran's national strategic interests disappear even if their leadership changes. Why would they give up their sources of regional influence? Any pivot would only benefit in a decade or two, as there would be turmoil over the changes. It seems naive to expect other regional powers not to try to abuse the situation, especially when everyone in the region is known for upholding human rights.
I don't think Israel's objectives include trying to make them western or whatever. Focusing only on what Israel is claiming, they want to make sure Iran is entirely incapable of ever making a nuclear weapon. After they rip apart all of the various facilities they have, kill everyone involved with their nuclear programs, kill off all the military leadership, the path to making a nuke is unfathomably long and difficult.
To your second point, I don't think Israel minds if regional powers capitalize on Iran's sudden weakness. As you and others have pointed out, converting Iran into some kinda ally simply won't ever happen. But Israel can definitely make Iran totally irrelevant to their military. As I understand, that's the only actual goal they have described.
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EPT
