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dbRic1203
Germany2655 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:10 Biff The Understudy wrote: Yes that makes sense. Geez this is soooo complicated compared to the french presidential election. Thanks for your answers guys, I was losing my mind. You are awesome. Well its an insanely big country and it has an insanly old, outdated voting system, so yeah.. | ||
KwarK
United States44393 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:14 FlaShFTW wrote: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive®ion=FooterNavigation I just don't see a path to victory for Trump unless that Milwaukee vote is a lot more than the current projection. Current number isn't a projection, it's the actual for Milwaukee in-person voting. That matters because mail-in voters aren't likely to vote in the same proportions. Another 6k votes counted in WI, they went 4k Biden 2k Trump. Trump lead down to 107k. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8209 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:16 dbRic1203 wrote: Well its an insanely big country and it has an insanly old, outdated voting system, so yeah.. The fact that it's technically 51 completely different elections with their own system that combine into one clusterfuck of nonsensical arithmetics doesn't help. It's like a super shitty election megatron. | ||
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Furikawari
France2522 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:19 Biff The Understudy wrote: The fact that it's technically 51 completely different elections with their own system that combine into one clusterfuck of nonsensical arithmetics doesn't help. It's like a super shitty election megatron. All on purpose though. | ||
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dbRic1203
Germany2655 Posts
Yeah, the winner takes all is just dumb. You can see the same in the UK, where it leads to a 2 party sythem, where the partys just drift further and further away as they radicalise themselves. | ||
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Diavlo
Belgium2915 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:18 KwarK wrote: Current number isn't a projection, it's the actual for Milwaukee in-person voting. That matters because mail-in voters aren't likely to vote in the same proportions. Another 6k votes counted in WI, they went 4k Biden 2k Trump. Trump lead down to 107k. Looking at the numbers I actually don't really see a way for Biden to close down the gap except if mail-in ballots really heavily go to Biden in every county. Milwaukee is at 50% with Biden 22 points up, so that's a 30.000 change for Biden, 55000 if Biden gets the same results as Hillary in 2016. I don't see how that's enough if Trump's lead is not also significantly diminished n the counties he's leading. Is it realistic to expect such a change? | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10573 Posts
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:19 Biff The Understudy wrote: The fact that it's technically 51 completely different elections with their own system that combine into one clusterfuck of nonsensical arithmetics doesn't help. It's like a super shitty election megatron. The US is more like the EU than any specific European country where they are mostly centralized provincial units not Federalized Republics (more akin to say Switzerlands Cantons). Stop comparing everything to you guys and saying shit like that. Is the EU out-dated? If the US is then the EU has to be. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10573 Posts
not sure if this is an error or real. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8209 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:33 Wegandi wrote: The US is more like the EU than any specific European country where they are mostly centralized provincial units not Federalized Republics (more akin to say Switzerlands Cantons). Stop comparing everything to you guys and saying shit like that. Is the EU out-dated? If the US is then the EU has to be. The EU is not a federation at all, and the election of the parliament are incredibly smooth compared to this byzantine shitshow. | ||
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Batmankills
145 Posts
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:33 FlaShFTW wrote: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323921129824784384/photo/1 not sure if this is an error or real. That seems insane if true. Trump gains 18k while Biden 127k+. Doesn't seem right. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10573 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:37 Wegandi wrote: That seems insane if true. Trump gains 18k while Biden 127k+. Doesn't seem right. It's because of the city absentee ballots. Think Milwaukee is similar to DC, its gonna be skewed 90/10 in favor of Dems. | ||
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Diavlo
Belgium2915 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:33 Wegandi wrote: The US is more like the EU than any specific European country where they are mostly centralized provincial units not Federalized Republics (more akin to say Switzerlands Cantons). Stop comparing everything to you guys and saying shit like that. Is the EU out-dated? If the US is then the EU has to be. But the EU same rules for the European parlement elections in every country and all our state elections are not counted to elect one leader. Xtf are you talking about. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
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dbRic1203
Germany2655 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:33 Wegandi wrote: The US is more like the EU than any specific European country where they are mostly centralized provincial units not Federalized Republics (more akin to say Switzerlands Cantons). Stop comparing everything to you guys and saying shit like that. Is the EU out-dated? If the US is then the EU has to be. Have you been visiting an European Country before? The EU is a bunch of independet countries. We don t have a mutual government and the countries are fastly different, political and cultural. Saying a european country is like a US state is just wrong. And we don t have a EU president, who has so much power. The presidents and cnacelors from the countries have more power than the EU president. And when we vote on the EU parliment, it s not the winner from every country get s all the seats for that nation. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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KwarK
United States44393 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:37 Wegandi wrote: That seems insane if true. Trump gains 18k while Biden 127k+. Doesn't seem right. As I've been saying, we can't extrapolate what they should be based on the county records. The city is not the county and the early voting population has no overlap with the in person voting population. I've been saying over and over "the county is 50% reported and +20 Biden so we can expect X swing" doesn't work. That said, I'd feel a lot more comfortable if more news orgs confirmed it. | ||
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eviltomahawk
United States11135 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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