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United States10402 Posts
On November 04 2020 18:55 Toadesstern wrote:WI is still super close even with Biden ahead by 11k. With Milwaukee basicly being reported now the areas who aren't done reporting are all Republican leaning. Smaller by population for sure and if it's still mail-in votes they're probably leaning more towards Biden even there but 11k is not a lot: ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/SGFvGeo.png)
Nate Silver is predicting that the absentee in Kenosha should erase that Trump lead, meaning another 12k for Biden. I think Biden has just enough, and Milwaukee still has a tiny bit. Brown county also has a lot of absentee.
We might get Wisconsin tonight. Michigan and PA definitely not.
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It's so surprising that Trump is this close with covid, I wonder what would the results be like if covid didn't happen.
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On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top.
Do we have a timeline for when they'll be counted?
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Worth noting that regardless of how it turns out, Trump picked up millions of votes between 2016 and 2020.
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On November 04 2020 19:02 Dante08 wrote:
It's so surprising that Trump is this close with covid, I wonder what would the results be like if covid didn't happen.
Given that Florida had notoriously awful covid responses, yet still went to Trump, apparently covid didn't matter much in some areas.
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On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top.
So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early?
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On November 04 2020 19:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top. Do we have a timeline for when they'll be counted?
Decision Desk just updated Michigan and has Biden only down 70k with 80-94%
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323929039367741440?s=20
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On November 04 2020 19:04 Dante08 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top. So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early?
basically. no idea how these states do their processes so opposite lol. It's kinda insane.
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On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 19:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top. Do we have a timeline for when they'll be counted? Decision Desk just updated Michigan and has Biden only down 70k with 80-94% https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323929039367741440?s=20
it's at 230k Trump lead at 78% reported if you ignore that update. Just to get a perspective on how big the change would be if true
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On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 19:04 Dante08 wrote:On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top. So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early? basically. no idea how these states do their processes so opposite lol. It's kinda insane.
This has to be the most insane election ever lol. The real winner are the liquor stores!
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On November 04 2020 19:02 Dante08 wrote:
It's so surprising that Trump is this close with covid, I wonder what would the results be like if covid didn't happen.
if anything pandemics helps the one in power...
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I wonder about Nevada. Looks like Trump could still very well take it.
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On November 04 2020 19:07 Dante08 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 04 2020 19:04 Dante08 wrote:On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top. So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early? basically. no idea how these states do their processes so opposite lol. It's kinda insane. This has to be the most insane election ever lol. The real winner are the liquor stores!
And the real losers are the pollsters. I drank too much of the blue koolaid by following the optimistic 538 numbers.
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On November 04 2020 19:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Worth noting that regardless of how it turns out, Trump picked up millions of votes between 2016 and 2020.
That's the one thing that puzzles me.
And there is no way it's a rejection vote of Biden, since last time it was Hillary who is wayyyy more controversial and unpopular. It's genuinely people who think that yeah, the guy is legit and does a good job.
It's mind boggling.
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United States43990 Posts
On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 19:04 Dante08 wrote:On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top. So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early? basically. no idea how these states do their processes so opposite lol. It's kinda insane.
The Republican controlled state legislatures forced them to count mail-in ballots last to deliberately construct a certain narrative.
If you count them first then the narrative is a huge Biden win that becomes more tenuous during the day and ends in a nailbiter. But if you count them last then you can declare victory and have that victory overturned by mail-in ballots. The order is, of course, completely arbitrary, but in terms of narrative storytelling, it matters. Trump has been repeating the same narrative on loop for months, that he will win the election but that it will be stolen from him by mail-in ballot fraud. If you count the mail-in ballots first, as they did in Florida, that narrative doesn't look as good on tv. It starts with "nobody knows who won" and ends with "Trump won". But if you do it the way they're forcing states to do it in PA then you end up with "Trump definitely won" and move towards "ooh, this could be an upset" as if your first conclusion wasn't completely unfounded.
It's fucked up but it's also intentional.
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On November 04 2020 19:08 eviltomahawk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 19:07 Dante08 wrote:On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 04 2020 19:04 Dante08 wrote:On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top. So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early? basically. no idea how these states do their processes so opposite lol. It's kinda insane. This has to be the most insane election ever lol. The real winner are the liquor stores! And the real losers are the pollsters. I drank too much of the blue koolaid by following the optimistic 538 numbers.
I think people don't understand what polls are, that's the problem. They are NOT a crystal ball.
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Considering all the election fraud the democrats are doing, they're sure doing an awful job at it
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EPT
