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2020 US Election - Page 79

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DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46248 Posts
November 04 2020 10:14 GMT
#1561
Just woke up to Donald Trump announcing he's already won, which means he *definitely* hasn't yet. Looks like it's going to come down to the mail-in ballots, which should lean Dem, but we don't know yet if it'll be enough. Looks like my map prediction is pretty spot on, which is certainly validating.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France8153 Posts
November 04 2020 10:14 GMT
#1562
On November 04 2020 19:13 Excludos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:10 Toadesstern wrote:
https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864?s=20

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323928217397399558?s=20

vote counting machine ran out of ink. Clerk had to fill her up again. I can already see this isn't going to go well with people who think Dems are literally forging votes.


Considering all the election fraud the democrats are doing, they're sure doing an awful job at it

Sir, logic is not allowed here, it has been clearly stated. We will have to ask you to leave.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Neneu
Profile Joined September 2010
Norway492 Posts
November 04 2020 10:16 GMT
#1563
On November 04 2020 19:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:08 eviltomahawk wrote:
On November 04 2020 19:07 Dante08 wrote:
On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 04 2020 19:04 Dante08 wrote:
On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top.


So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early?

basically. no idea how these states do their processes so opposite lol. It's kinda insane.


This has to be the most insane election ever lol. The real winner are the liquor stores!

And the real losers are the pollsters. I drank too much of the blue koolaid by following the optimistic 538 numbers.

I think people don't understand what polls are, that's the problem. They are NOT a crystal ball.


Lets not forget that people also have a big problem with understanding the differences between likelyhoods/simulations and polls.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10530 Posts
November 04 2020 10:16 GMT
#1564
https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323930196765003777?s=20

There is a world where Biden has now stolen Michigan back.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Laurens
Profile Joined September 2010
Belgium4557 Posts
November 04 2020 10:17 GMT
#1565
Still puzzling to me that Arizona has been called.

At 70% votes counted, Biden was ~200k votes ahead.
We're now at 84% votes counted and the lead has shrunk to ~93k votes.
ABC News refuses to call it yet but Politico and various other news outlets have.
IyMoon
Profile Joined April 2016
United States1249 Posts
November 04 2020 10:18 GMT
#1566
On November 04 2020 19:17 Laurens wrote:
Still puzzling to me that Arizona has been called.

At 70% votes counted, Biden was ~200k votes ahead.
We're now at 84% votes counted and the lead has shrunk to ~93k votes.
ABC News refuses to call it yet but Politico and various other news outlets have.


It is really really weird. But AZ staying blue is SUPER important to biden.

If that flips his path is a lot more narrow
Something witty
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France8153 Posts
November 04 2020 10:20 GMT
#1567
AP is also notoriously conservative with calling elections apparently.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
dbRic1203
Profile Joined July 2019
Germany2655 Posts
November 04 2020 10:20 GMT
#1568
On November 04 2020 19:17 Laurens wrote:
Still puzzling to me that Arizona has been called.

At 70% votes counted, Biden was ~200k votes ahead.
We're now at 84% votes counted and the lead has shrunk to ~93k votes.
ABC News refuses to call it yet but Politico and various other news outlets have.

btw is ABC the most central news channel with a stream?
I feel like they at least try to get representatives from both parties in.
MaxPax
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9958 Posts
November 04 2020 10:23 GMT
#1569
On November 04 2020 19:08 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Worth noting that regardless of how it turns out, Trump picked up millions of votes between 2016 and 2020.

That's the one thing that puzzles me.

And there is no way it's a rejection vote of Biden, since last time it was Hillary who is wayyyy more controversial and unpopular. It's genuinely people who think that yeah, the guy is legit and does a good job.

It's mind boggling.

It could be a rejection of democrats though.
RIP Meatloaf <3
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18400 Posts
November 04 2020 10:23 GMT
#1570
On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top.


Do we have a timeline for when they'll be counted?

Decision Desk just updated Michigan and has Biden only down 70k with 80-94%

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323929039367741440?s=20

How do they not even know whether they have counted 80% of the vote or 94% of the vote?
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10530 Posts
November 04 2020 10:23 GMT
#1571
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323933721674788866?s=20

nevada looking scary now
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44205 Posts
November 04 2020 10:24 GMT
#1572
Yep, basically it's all to play for.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Wegandi
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2455 Posts
November 04 2020 10:26 GMT
#1573
Lockdowns super unpopular in NV with its reliance on tourism. If Trump wins NV that's huge.
Thank you bureaucrats for all your hard work, your commitment to public service and public good is essential to the lives of so many. Also, for Pete's sake can we please get some gun control already, no need for hand guns and assault rifles for the public
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10530 Posts
November 04 2020 10:27 GMT
#1574
Been spamming f5 on like 5 different pages. I just want those Wisconsin numbers so I can go to bed after Brown county.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Luolis
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Finland7190 Posts
November 04 2020 10:27 GMT
#1575
Nevada could fuck it all up for everyone.
pro cheese woman / Its never Sunny in Finland. Perkele / FinnishStarcraftTrivia
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France8153 Posts
November 04 2020 10:27 GMT
#1576
On November 04 2020 19:23 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:08 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 04 2020 19:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Worth noting that regardless of how it turns out, Trump picked up millions of votes between 2016 and 2020.

That's the one thing that puzzles me.

And there is no way it's a rejection vote of Biden, since last time it was Hillary who is wayyyy more controversial and unpopular. It's genuinely people who think that yeah, the guy is legit and does a good job.

It's mind boggling.

It could be a rejection of democrats though.

They haven't been in office for four years. I get that Trump 16 was a rejection of the dems, but it's hard to blame them for much of what happened recently.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18400 Posts
November 04 2020 10:27 GMT
#1577
On November 04 2020 19:08 eviltomahawk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:07 Dante08 wrote:
On November 04 2020 19:05 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 04 2020 19:04 Dante08 wrote:
On November 04 2020 18:43 FlaShFTW wrote:
Nate Cohn says that Biden should actually be leading in every state right now sans NC. The absentee city ballots are really going to push Biden over the top.


So Penn, WI and Mich counted the mail in votes late while Ohio etc counted them early?

basically. no idea how these states do their processes so opposite lol. It's kinda insane.


This has to be the most insane election ever lol. The real winner are the liquor stores!

And the real losers are the pollsters. I drank too much of the blue koolaid by following the optimistic 538 numbers.

No clue if it's the pollsters or the media reporting on it, but I work in data science, and when there is even the slightest chance people will misinterpret my conclusions, I always always always make damn sure the most prominent thing I explain is the error bars and what that means.

That said, this is the second time in as many presidential elections that everybody reporting on polls has been wildly overestimating the democrats' position. I think they *really* need to rethink their methodologies, or if the methodology is sound, how they present their results.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18400 Posts
November 04 2020 10:28 GMT
#1578
On November 04 2020 19:26 Wegandi wrote:
Lockdowns super unpopular in NV with its reliance on tourism. If Trump wins NV that's huge.

Trump totally mishandles the COVID crisis.

Democrats take the blame.

HOW DOES THIS MAKE SENSE?
Laurens
Profile Joined September 2010
Belgium4557 Posts
November 04 2020 10:30 GMT
#1579
On November 04 2020 19:28 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:26 Wegandi wrote:
Lockdowns super unpopular in NV with its reliance on tourism. If Trump wins NV that's huge.

Trump totally mishandles the COVID crisis.

Democrats take the blame.

HOW DOES THIS MAKE SENSE?


Because Nevada has a Democratic governor? And he decided on the lockdowns?
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18721 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 10:31:21
November 04 2020 10:30 GMT
#1580
On November 04 2020 19:28 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:26 Wegandi wrote:
Lockdowns super unpopular in NV with its reliance on tourism. If Trump wins NV that's huge.

Trump totally mishandles the COVID crisis.

Democrats take the blame.

HOW DOES THIS MAKE SENSE?


Pandemics help the ruling parties.

On November 04 2020 19:30 Laurens wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 19:28 Acrofales wrote:
On November 04 2020 19:26 Wegandi wrote:
Lockdowns super unpopular in NV with its reliance on tourism. If Trump wins NV that's huge.

Trump totally mishandles the COVID crisis.

Democrats take the blame.

HOW DOES THIS MAKE SENSE?


Because Nevada has a Democratic governor? And he decided on the lockdowns?


ooh
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