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On November 06 2020 05:52 eviltomahawk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:43 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Even if Biden won Georgia he probably wouldn't win senate race there due to massive difference in people not voting in senate race compared to Trump voters
Trump: 2,432,799
GOP Sen: 2,433,617
Dif: 818
Biden: 2,414,651
Dem Sen: 2,318,850
Dif: 95,801 Doesn't matter. The GOP senator needs 50% of the vote to win, and he's going to fall short. Otherwise there's a runoff. I wonder if enough Dems will come out to vote in the runoffs to be able to tip the senate election in the other direction.
Possibly. Trump clearly turbo boosted turnout unexpectedly from the "new" parts of the GOP base that rarely vote (ie white males without college degrees), and I think if he's not on the ticket that we get 2018 turnout rates, which were very favorable to democrats.
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On November 06 2020 05:52 eviltomahawk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:43 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Even if Biden won Georgia he probably wouldn't win senate race there due to massive difference in people not voting in senate race compared to Trump voters
Trump: 2,432,799
GOP Sen: 2,433,617
Dif: 818
Biden: 2,414,651
Dem Sen: 2,318,850
Dif: 95,801 Doesn't matter. The GOP senator needs 50% of the vote to win, and he's going to fall short. Otherwise there's a runoff. I wonder if enough Dems will come out to vote in the runoffs to be able to tip the senate election in the other direction.
Its a weird balance, do Trump supports care about the down ballot stuff and show up again, or are Democrats just going to see Biden won and shrug off back to brunch?
If this goes to a run off the results could be very interesting.
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On November 06 2020 05:41 Diavlo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 06 2020 05:34 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:31 Zambrah wrote:
Neither state wants DC, let them be a state. Puerto Rico too, while we're at it. Puerto Rico doesn't really seem to want to be a state tho. There's a very recent piece of data that runs contrary to this... The referendum was 52-48, that's not exactly the biggest endorsement. Only the brits would completely change their political system on a 52% referendum...
48% against. wow. What are the disadvantages to becoming a state?
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senate could end up being 50-50 :o
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Also, note that adding DC to VA wouldn't be really be much better for the GOP than DC statehood.
They wouldn't lose any senatorial power, but it would make the house and presidency MUCH harder for them, as VA would go from trending blue to deep blue, would add several blue seats to the house, and would make VA state house unwinnable for republicans.
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On November 06 2020 05:55 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:41 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 06 2020 05:34 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:31 Zambrah wrote:
Neither state wants DC, let them be a state. Puerto Rico too, while we're at it. Puerto Rico doesn't really seem to want to be a state tho. There's a very recent piece of data that runs contrary to this... The referendum was 52-48, that's not exactly the biggest endorsement. Only the brits would completely change their political system on a 52% referendum... 48% against. wow. What are the disadvantages to becoming a state?
I'm not sure about all of the specifics, but once you are a state, there really is no leaving.
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On November 06 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:52 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:43 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Even if Biden won Georgia he probably wouldn't win senate race there due to massive difference in people not voting in senate race compared to Trump voters
Trump: 2,432,799
GOP Sen: 2,433,617
Dif: 818
Biden: 2,414,651
Dem Sen: 2,318,850
Dif: 95,801 Doesn't matter. The GOP senator needs 50% of the vote to win, and he's going to fall short. Otherwise there's a runoff. I wonder if enough Dems will come out to vote in the runoffs to be able to tip the senate election in the other direction. Its a weird balance, do Trump supports care about the down ballot stuff and show up again, or are Democrats just going to see Biden won and shrug off back to brunch? If this goes to a run off the results could be very interesting.
Well if they don't get those two seats, we can kiss goodbye to Biden 3,5 trillion stimulus bill, the raise of minimal salary or the green new deal. Those are pretty progressive policies that would really make a change, but the GOP is never going to negotiate any of those.
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On November 06 2020 05:57 FragKrag wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:55 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:41 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 06 2020 05:34 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:31 Zambrah wrote:
Neither state wants DC, let them be a state. Puerto Rico too, while we're at it. Puerto Rico doesn't really seem to want to be a state tho. There's a very recent piece of data that runs contrary to this... The referendum was 52-48, that's not exactly the biggest endorsement. Only the brits would completely change their political system on a 52% referendum... 48% against. wow. What are the disadvantages to becoming a state? I'm not sure about all of the specifics, but once you are a state, there really is no leaving.
They can't leave now either.
The disadvantages are that they get taxed differently, iirc (somewhat higher).
The advantage is that they can't be flat out ignored for federal aid from disasters(as happened in 2017, and is definitely going to happen within the next 10 years again due to changing weather patterns) and they get represented in Congress in a voting manner.
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On November 06 2020 05:58 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On November 06 2020 05:52 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:43 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Even if Biden won Georgia he probably wouldn't win senate race there due to massive difference in people not voting in senate race compared to Trump voters
Trump: 2,432,799
GOP Sen: 2,433,617
Dif: 818
Biden: 2,414,651
Dem Sen: 2,318,850
Dif: 95,801 Doesn't matter. The GOP senator needs 50% of the vote to win, and he's going to fall short. Otherwise there's a runoff. I wonder if enough Dems will come out to vote in the runoffs to be able to tip the senate election in the other direction. Its a weird balance, do Trump supports care about the down ballot stuff and show up again, or are Democrats just going to see Biden won and shrug off back to brunch? If this goes to a run off the results could be very interesting. Well if they don't get those two seats, we can kiss goodbye to Biden 3,5 trillion stimulus bill, the raise of minimal salary or the green new deal. Those are pretty progressive policies that would really make a change, but the GOP is never going to negotiate any of those.
Right but it looks like Biden is president so Democrats win.
Sarcasm off, I HOPE people go out and vote hard and realize how fucking important the Senate is but I've seen how incredibly eager some people are to see Trump gone and then go back to pretending politics doesnt exist. I am DESPERATE to see more Justices added to the court. I am DESPERATE to see a proper continuous stimulus (like what Canada gets.)
This'll be an interesting potential referendum on whether or not Democrats are going to be reliable down ballot voters or if were going to see a Back to Brunch mentality imo.
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Some of the resistance to statehood among Puerto Ricans comes from distrust of the US and its government, which is totally understandable, if not futile given their involuntary connection to the US regardless.
And to your point Zambrah, as someone interested in pulling Dems to the left not on principle, but because I think that's how votes are won, I consider it a duty to agitate the back to brunch crew as much as possible, my friend group knows this all too well haha
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On November 06 2020 05:55 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:41 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 06 2020 05:34 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:31 Zambrah wrote:
Neither state wants DC, let them be a state. Puerto Rico too, while we're at it. Puerto Rico doesn't really seem to want to be a state tho. There's a very recent piece of data that runs contrary to this... The referendum was 52-48, that's not exactly the biggest endorsement. Only the brits would completely change their political system on a 52% referendum... 48% against. wow. What are the disadvantages to becoming a state?
Theyd have to pay a bunch of taxes that they currently arent while getting minimally more benefits.
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On November 06 2020 06:00 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:57 FragKrag wrote:On November 06 2020 05:55 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:41 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 06 2020 05:34 Diavlo wrote:On November 06 2020 05:31 Zambrah wrote:
Neither state wants DC, let them be a state. Puerto Rico too, while we're at it. Puerto Rico doesn't really seem to want to be a state tho. There's a very recent piece of data that runs contrary to this... The referendum was 52-48, that's not exactly the biggest endorsement. Only the brits would completely change their political system on a 52% referendum... 48% against. wow. What are the disadvantages to becoming a state? I'm not sure about all of the specifics, but once you are a state, there really is no leaving. They can't leave now either. The disadvantages are that they get taxed differently, iirc (somewhat higher). The advantage is that they can't be flat out ignored for federal aid from disasters(as happened in 2017, and is definitely going to happen within the next 10 years again due to changing weather patterns) and they get represented in Congress in a voting manner.
I think legally they are allowed a referendum, and Congress gets the final say.
As to what Congress would say, that's an entirely different issue, but it is legally possible for Puerto Rico to leave.
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On November 06 2020 05:56 TT1 wrote:
senate could end up being 50-50 :o
Which means that Vice President Harris is the tiebreaker!
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On November 06 2020 05:54 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:52 eviltomahawk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 06 2020 05:43 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Even if Biden won Georgia he probably wouldn't win senate race there due to massive difference in people not voting in senate race compared to Trump voters
Trump: 2,432,799
GOP Sen: 2,433,617
Dif: 818
Biden: 2,414,651
Dem Sen: 2,318,850
Dif: 95,801 Doesn't matter. The GOP senator needs 50% of the vote to win, and he's going to fall short. Otherwise there's a runoff. I wonder if enough Dems will come out to vote in the runoffs to be able to tip the senate election in the other direction. Possibly. Trump clearly turbo boosted turnout unexpectedly from the "new" parts of the GOP base that rarely vote (ie white males without college degrees), and I think if he's not on the ticket that we get 2018 turnout rates, which were very favorable to democrats.
GOP tend to heavily weigh down ballot (as you saw with the vote there) while Dems dont as much. Plus theyll be incentivized as much as the Dems to turnout because the balance of power in the Senate will be determined by those 2 run offs. I expect huge GOP turnout to prevent Dems from holding all 3 branches.
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United States43990 Posts
On November 06 2020 05:42 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:38 farvacola wrote:On November 06 2020 05:36 Wegandi wrote:On November 06 2020 05:31 Zambrah wrote:
Neither state wants DC, let them be a state. Puerto Rico too, while we're at it. Ya, no. Do you want to purposefully disentegrate the country because thats what +4 permanent D senators will do (plus the added reps and electoral votes). How would you feel if the GOP added +4 Senators and 12+ electoral votes into their column? If MD or VA doesnt want them then their SOL. Did you skip your history lesson with the Missouri Compromise or what? This is a dumb and unnecessarily hostile take, it's not as though the Missouri Compromise worked, did you skip yours? On November 06 2020 05:36 Zambrah wrote:On November 06 2020 05:34 farvacola wrote:
Was gonna say, who's gonna force either Va or Md to absorb DC? That's not politically palatable anywhere around here as far as I can tell. If we're real, VA would win that fight, we're bigger and richer than MD, so we'd wind up shoving DC up MD's pooper. But yeah, noone wants DC, frankly I don't blame 'em, lol. Never driven in a more psychotic traffic environment. Midnight on a Saturday, basically LAWLESSNESS in driving form. EDIT: I saw WV mentioned and Im compelled to state that in VA it is legal to marry your first cousin, wheras contrary to popular imagination, in WV its illegal to marry your first cousin! Weird stuff. Having just come from the Toledo-Detroit area, I find the driving around here annoyingly familiar, but with way better roads Thats the point. Of course it didnt work. You alter the balance of power to ensure one party rule youre going to force the red states to just say fuck you again and youll say nuh huh you cant leave and then we'll have 1860 all over again.
That's not how it works at all. You'd get one party rule if the opposition refused to change their stances but that never happens because the opposition always evolves when faced with losing policies. The Republicans would move left to poach some of the more right wing Democrats and the balance would be restored.
You view the status quo as some divinely appointed neutral zone that must be maintained at all costs when it's neither neutral nor divinely appointed. The status quo favours conservative politics and is artificially dragging the political centre of gravity right. Splitting CA into 3 states or giving statehood to PR wouldn't be any more partisan than not doing that because there is no innate virtue to the status quo, it's no more partisan than denying PR statehood.
Honestly your failure to recognize that the political middle ground is artificial and arbitrary speaks to an elementary misunderstanding of political theory. Shifting representation to make it more democratic would not lead to a one party state, it would lead to a new political middle ground that more accurately reflected the middle ground of the population as a whole.
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On November 06 2020 05:57 Nevuk wrote:
Also, note that adding DC to VA wouldn't be really be much better for the GOP than DC statehood.
They wouldn't lose any senatorial power, but it would make the house and presidency MUCH harder for them, as VA would go from trending blue to deep blue, would add several blue seats to the house, and would make VA state house unwinnable for republicans.
Ya Im sure VA state GOP would hate it. They would definitely push back but if its that or statehood I bet they'd rather absorb them. It also wouldnt change the electoral college dynamic as the GOP has no shot at VA anymore. The influx of statists into NoVo as power concentrates on the Potomac has destroyed any hope of VA ever going GOP again. Adding a few house seats isnt going to change any dynamic.
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United States10402 Posts
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On November 06 2020 05:42 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2020 05:41 PhoenixVoid wrote:
A fractious call between House Democrats between Rep. Spanberger who barely held on to her Virginia seat and Pelosi is the embodiment of the ideological soul-searching Democrats are having right now.
The rest of the tweet chain is Spanberger complaining that 2022 will be a bloodbath for Dems and Pelosi disagreeing, saying they won the presidency and held the House. Pelosi has failed in her leadership of the Dems. She has no idea wtf she is doing and does not understand how to construct a winning democratic message. Though, this has, and always will be, the reason why Republicans remain relevant in this current political battle.
It's not that she is in over her head, she simply doesn't care. This is a woman known for not sharing power or letting younger House Members into leadership positions.
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United States10402 Posts
PA UPDATE: Philly dropped another small batch, Biden gained 10k, up from a 370k lead to 380k.
PA according to the NYT is now less than 100k.
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On November 06 2020 06:05 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Which means that Vice President Harris is the tiebreaker!
Would still be really tight because Sinema and Manchin have been known to swing vote from time to time.
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EPT
