On November 06 2020 06:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Looks like Biden is about to move ahead in PA.
Looks like Biden is about to move ahead in PA.
This, with Esper resigning, indicates Trump may have asked the military to intervene. Chilling.
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Looks like Biden is about to move ahead in PA. This, with Esper resigning, indicates Trump may have asked the military to intervene. Chilling. | ||
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Husyelt
United States837 Posts
This, with Esper resigning, indicates Trump may have asked the military to intervene. Chilling. where do you make that connection? | ||
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Broetchenholer
Germany1961 Posts
Also, what declaration of political bankruptcy is it to say, the GOP would never win DC or PR? | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9847 Posts
I take it from everyone's reaction here that isn't really the case, or is it just the timing of it? NBC says: It’s not uncommon for Cabinet secretaries to prepare undated letters of resignation during a presidential transition, giving the commander in chief the chance to replace them for a second term. The president decides whether to accept the resignation letters, and the process usually occurs after the election results are clear. But defense officials say Esper prepared his letter because he is one of the Cabinet officials long expected to be pushed out after the election. As his tenure may be coming to an end, Esper is helping members of Congress draft legislation that will strip names of Confederate leaders from military bases in a move that could put him further at odds with President Donald Trump https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/nov/05/us-election-results-joe-biden-donald-trump-live-updates?page=with:block-5fa467ee8f08578732a63eac#block-5fa467ee8f08578732a63eac | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10402 Posts
Nevada nothing til tomorrow, Arizona looks like a big dump tonight, PA is still just trickling in, Georgia no idea, they seem to have stopped or are waiting for a big announcement. I think they said something about Chatam county (Savannah) is running slower and might only get reported tomorrow morning. | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:29 ChristianS wrote: IIRC Republicans currently have like a ~+8 advantage in the Senate relative to the popular vote (that is, if they lost every election by 8 points in the popular vote, they’d keep 50 senators on average). Adding PR and DC would bring that to ~+4. “That would give Dems too much advantage” is a pretty weak argument against, and basically every argument against using the popular vote (e.g. ensuring less populous groups’ interests are still represented) would cut in favor of representing the people of DC and PR, too. Of course, the reason it doesn’t happen is because Republicans have a lot of power, and appear not to have a single principle they prioritize more highly than obtaining more power. Designing the whole system around incentivizing politicians to do whatever it takes to win elections has really negative consequences in situations where those same politicians get to make decisions about the electoral machinery. It’s not obvious how to solve that problem democratically, but gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Electoral College stuff are all victims of that problem (and all seem to be getting worse as time goes on). A few years ago people were optimistic about a judicial branch solution to the gerrymandering issue, but I assume everyone’s given up on that. The political unit and polity of this country is not based on individual persons. Its based off the 50 states. It has been since our inception (which preceded both parties). Using the popular vote is meaningless when talking about the power dynamics of our institutions (do you care about those now or do you want to alter and abolish still?). | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:28 Wegandi wrote: Show nested quote + On November 06 2020 06:25 Nevuk wrote: On November 06 2020 06:06 Wegandi wrote: On November 06 2020 05:54 Nevuk wrote: On November 06 2020 05:52 eviltomahawk wrote: On November 06 2020 05:51 Nevuk wrote: On November 06 2020 05:43 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Even if Biden won Georgia he probably wouldn't win senate race there due to massive difference in people not voting in senate race compared to Trump voters Trump: 2,432,799 GOP Sen: 2,433,617 Dif: 818 Biden: 2,414,651 Dem Sen: 2,318,850 Dif: 95,801 Doesn't matter. The GOP senator needs 50% of the vote to win, and he's going to fall short. Otherwise there's a runoff. I wonder if enough Dems will come out to vote in the runoffs to be able to tip the senate election in the other direction. Possibly. Trump clearly turbo boosted turnout unexpectedly from the "new" parts of the GOP base that rarely vote (ie white males without college degrees), and I think if he's not on the ticket that we get 2018 turnout rates, which were very favorable to democrats. GOP tend to heavily weigh down ballot (as you saw with the vote there) while Dems dont as much. Plus theyll be incentivized as much as the Dems to turnout because the balance of power in the Senate will be determined by those 2 run offs. I expect huge GOP turnout to prevent Dems from holding all 3 branches. We're in a new era. In the past I think you'd be right, but 2018 turnout favored dems by 8 points while it looks like Trump on the ballot cut that support in half, mainly from extra Republican turnout. On November 06 2020 06:25 FlaShFTW wrote: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324459786247770118?s=20 Not going to lie, as much as I depend upon Nate's updates and tweets, I hate him with a passion. The man continuously is trying to defend his reputation by basically twisting and shifting goalposts all the time. He had huge margins in the North and Biden winning close races in Arizona, Florida, NC, Georgia. Biden did not win by the suggested margins up north, Florida and NC were losses for Biden (NC not yet but projected). The dude cannot just acknowledge that maybe he's wrong. I don't really see the issue. He's not in the business of predicting margins. New era? You cant extrapolate mid term elections that much. Would you have done the same when the GOP pounced Obama in 2010? By new era, I'm referring to demographic groupings. The GOP's past diehard base was affluential white voters, who made up a smaller portion of the electorate but voted frequently. IE, suburbs. The most reliable voters of those groups have flipped to democrats (college educated voters), while some of the least reliable democratic voters have flipped to republicans ( This may just be a Trump effect, though - I'm not 100% that it's a new era (these voters could revert their patterns), but I think that those white rare voters aren't going to stick around without him. 2010 was also just a continuation of a long pattern. Republican leaning groups have always had higher turnout than could be expected for their size comparative to the population in midterms and special elections, until 2018. On November 06 2020 06:33 Jockmcplop wrote: The Guardian is saying its perfectly normal for cabinet secretaries to prepare a resignation letter in case the president doesn't want them in his second term. I take it from everyone's reaction here that isn't really the case, or is it just the timing of it? Prepare letter, sure. Not to do it before January. This is resigning 2 months before retirement levels of strange. | ||
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KungKras
Sweden484 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:20 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote: Weird timing for Esper. Wonder if Trump asked him to do something wild. If he's resigning because Trump told him to do crazy stuff relating to the election, then I hope that at least removes any and all doubs about Trump being a facist. Allthough MAGA people will probably just go "FACISM IS FREEDOM, USA USA USA!!!" ..... | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:32 Broetchenholer wrote: The reasoning against a representation of million of Americans is from the completely wrong point of view. It's not the voting populace that needs to adopt to the political parties, it's the parties needing to adopt to to the voting populace. It's exactly the same mindset that ends with voter disenfranchisement because politiciansthink it's their right to only represent the people they care about. If the only way the GOP can cling to power is to hold onto the abitrary ruling that 52 GOP senators represent only 153 million americans and no more can ever be included, why did the US ever create more states, clearly, at some point before, new states would have meant a shift in political power somewhere else. Also, what declaration of political bankruptcy is it to say, the GOP would never win DC or PR? You realize we had a civil war in large part to the Missouri Compromise which ya know...was about adding new states. Foreigners ignorant of US history shouldnt be so boisterous on this topic. PS GOP would have as much chance of winning DC as they would if Cuba, NK, or Venezuela were added as a state (DC literally votes like 92-94% Democrat). PR is more like Wyoming levels of partisanship than DC (70% rather than 95%). | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:35 Wegandi wrote: Show nested quote + On November 06 2020 06:32 Broetchenholer wrote: The reasoning against a representation of million of Americans is from the completely wrong point of view. It's not the voting populace that needs to adopt to the political parties, it's the parties needing to adopt to to the voting populace. It's exactly the same mindset that ends with voter disenfranchisement because politiciansthink it's their right to only represent the people they care about. If the only way the GOP can cling to power is to hold onto the abitrary ruling that 52 GOP senators represent only 153 million americans and no more can ever be included, why did the US ever create more states, clearly, at some point before, new states would have meant a shift in political power somewhere else. Also, what declaration of political bankruptcy is it to say, the GOP would never win DC or PR? You realize we had a civil war in large part to the Missouri Compromise which ya know...was about adding new states. Foreigners ignorant of US history shouldnt be so boisterous on this topic. That is some wild causation and correlation. The Missouri Compromise was made to delay the civil war. It didn't CAUSE it. | ||
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KungKras
Sweden484 Posts
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Shinokuki
United States923 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:33 Wegandi wrote: Show nested quote + On November 06 2020 06:29 ChristianS wrote: IIRC Republicans currently have like a ~+8 advantage in the Senate relative to the popular vote (that is, if they lost every election by 8 points in the popular vote, they’d keep 50 senators on average). Adding PR and DC would bring that to ~+4. “That would give Dems too much advantage” is a pretty weak argument against, and basically every argument against using the popular vote (e.g. ensuring less populous groups’ interests are still represented) would cut in favor of representing the people of DC and PR, too. Of course, the reason it doesn’t happen is because Republicans have a lot of power, and appear not to have a single principle they prioritize more highly than obtaining more power. Designing the whole system around incentivizing politicians to do whatever it takes to win elections has really negative consequences in situations where those same politicians get to make decisions about the electoral machinery. It’s not obvious how to solve that problem democratically, but gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Electoral College stuff are all victims of that problem (and all seem to be getting worse as time goes on). A few years ago people were optimistic about a judicial branch solution to the gerrymandering issue, but I assume everyone’s given up on that. The political unit and polity of this country is not based on individual persons. Its based off the 50 states. It has been since our inception (which preceded both parties). Using the popular vote is meaningless when talking about the power dynamics of our institutions (do you care about those now or do you want to alter and abolish still?). Just like amy coney barrett and any other slimy GOP trying to reason why HURR DURR should be like this. No country is adopting this archaic voting system based on some 1800 slave owner | ||
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:35 Zambrah wrote: America was founded with 50 states?! Man, I knew American education was bad but I didnt think my history education was that shitty. You get my point. I wasnt saying that in 1775 we had 50 colonies. Good lord don't be daft. | ||
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Diavlo
Belgium2915 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10402 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:40 Diavlo wrote: So AP and Fox won't call Nevada because they don't want to admit they were wrong to call Arizona that soon? Pretty much. I expect the other stations that have not called Arizona to call Nevada right away tomorrow morning when Nevada finally releases the last bit of Clark county. They really want to say "apparent winner" instead of "projected winner" I guess. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:40 Diavlo wrote: So AP and Fox won't call Nevada because they don't want to admit they were wrong to call Arizona that soon? Almost certainly, though if they were to continue applying the same standards they used to call AZ then they should call it for Biden now anyways. | ||
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IyMoon
United States1249 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:42 FlaShFTW wrote: Show nested quote + On November 06 2020 06:40 Diavlo wrote: So AP and Fox won't call Nevada because they don't want to admit they were wrong to call Arizona that soon? Pretty much. I expect the other stations that have not called Arizona to call Nevada right away tomorrow morning when Nevada finally releases the last bit of Clark county. They really want to say "apparent winner" instead of "projected winner" I guess. we will see tonight in AZ dump. Once that happens we will have a really good idea if Biden is keeping it or Trump will flip | ||
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/supreme-court-leans-in-favor-of-catholic-foster-agency-that-refuses-to-work-with-g.html Seems relevant to Wegandi's pleading for "balance of power" (which is supposed to refer to government branches, not parties?) | ||
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