EPT2020 US Election - Page 169
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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farvacola
United States18857 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10402 Posts
Here's that PA update in numbers. Thank god for Decision Desk maintaining the records so we can analyze the raw numbers. Trump +3.6k Biden +8.4k Exactly 70% gain for Biden on the nose. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:13 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Mark Esper is preparing to resign per NBC. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1324454055863898114 And reportedly helping to draft legislation to strip confederate generals names off of military bases. | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:13 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Mark Esper is preparing to resign per NBC. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1324454055863898114 Is this just Esper telling an NBC reporter that he wants out lol. What other source could this be. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10402 Posts
NC confirmed that they will only start releasing absentee and provisional ballots on the 12th. | ||
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FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32747 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:16 FlaShFTW wrote: https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324460325383655426?s=20 NC confirmed that they will only start releasing absentee and provisional ballots on the 12th. I'd be watching this closely next week because it could mean the difference between Senator Tillis and Senator Cunningham. A 51-49 Senate is easier to work with for Democrats than a 52-48 Senate. | ||
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IyMoon
United States1249 Posts
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
HOO BOY | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10402 Posts
Not going to lie, as much as I depend upon Nate's updates and tweets, I hate him with a passion. The man continuously is trying to defend his reputation by basically twisting and shifting goalposts all the time. He had huge margins in the North and Biden winning close races in Arizona, Florida, NC, Georgia. Biden did not win by the suggested margins up north, Florida and NC were losses for Biden (NC not yet but projected). The dude cannot just acknowledge that maybe he's wrong. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:06 Wegandi wrote: GOP tend to heavily weigh down ballot (as you saw with the vote there) while Dems dont as much. Plus theyll be incentivized as much as the Dems to turnout because the balance of power in the Senate will be determined by those 2 run offs. I expect huge GOP turnout to prevent Dems from holding all 3 branches. We're in a new era. In the past I think you'd be right, but 2018 turnout favored dems by 8 points while it looks like Trump on the ballot cut that support in half, mainly from extra Republican turnout. On November 06 2020 06:25 FlaShFTW wrote: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324459786247770118?s=20 Not going to lie, as much as I depend upon Nate's updates and tweets, I hate him with a passion. The man continuously is trying to defend his reputation by basically twisting and shifting goalposts all the time. He had huge margins in the North and Biden winning close races in Arizona, Florida, NC, Georgia. Biden did not win by the suggested margins up north, Florida and NC were losses for Biden (NC not yet but projected). The dude cannot just acknowledge that maybe he's wrong. I don't really see the issue. He's not in the business of predicting margins. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:24 Zambrah wrote: "System of governance thats the envy of the world" HOO BOY So he is senile then? | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Wegandi
United States2455 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:25 Nevuk wrote: We're in a new era. In the past I think you'd be right, but 2018 turnout favored dems by 8 points while it looks like Trump on the ballot cut that support in half, mainly from extra Republican turnout. I don't really see the issue. He's not in the business of predicting margins. New era? You cant extrapolate mid term elections that much. Would you have done the same when the GOP pounced Obama in 2010? | ||
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
That or he might be hitting that victory liquor a little hard... | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10402 Posts
On November 06 2020 06:25 Nevuk wrote: We're in a new era. In the past I think you'd be right, but 2018 turnout favored dems by 8 points while it looks like Trump on the ballot cut that support in half, mainly from extra Republican turnout. I don't really see the issue. He's not in the business of predicting margins. He's in the business of adjusting margins though. His whole website is on the grounds of "well we collect this data and interpret it, then make adjustments as we think to describe what the polls actually mean". So clearly, either the polls are wrong, his adjustments are off, or a combination of the two, which I lean to the last suggestion. Polls are definitely wrong and the overall polling industry needs to be turned upsidedown, but his adjustments also are really bad if he's barely adjusting those polls. He lost a lot of credibility in 2016, he's further losing more this time around. He's just trying to save face, and while I don't blame him on a business level to defend your credibility, he's really not a place I look for in terms of what to expect anymore. | ||
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ChristianS
United States3304 Posts
Designing the whole system around incentivizing politicians to do whatever it takes to win elections has really negative consequences in situations where those same politicians get to make decisions about the electoral machinery. It’s not obvious how to solve that problem democratically, but gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Electoral College stuff are all victims of that problem (and all seem to be getting worse as time goes on). A few years ago people were optimistic about a judicial branch solution to the gerrymandering issue, but I assume everyone’s given up on that. | ||
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