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On November 05 2020 07:24 Shingi11 wrote:
The thing is we are starting to gather is a lot of the ground reporters who where covering the days and weeks up to the vote said they could feel the enthusiasm for Trump. Pollsters had to be felling that to but despite that they still called it that Trump was going to lose in a landslide. What data point where they get that massively counter balanced this enthusiasm for there numbers.
The pollsters have talked about how the biggest issue they had in 2016 was that they had a really hard time getting white non-college educated voters as respondents for their polls, and that this was still an issue going into 2020.
The response rates are <.01%, iirc, so it's frankly astonishing that polls have held predictive for as long as they have.
This is a group that gets turboboosted turnout when Trump is on the ballot, and their lack of showing (relatively) in 2018 could explain the more accurate polls.
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WH has called a lid for tonight, at 530 in the evening.
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On November 05 2020 07:26 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Republicans got what they needed from Trump. The SCOTUS and courts are in their hands, they passed the tax cuts and other legislation, and the Senate remains under their control. Biden's in for a rough two years with McConnell to check him, unless he's able to be the negotiator he was as Obama's VP or as a senator.
Agreed. No need for the GOP to stick their necks too far for trump at this point
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On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist.
Thats one reason,Another reason for latino voters in general (not specifically cubans) to support the conservatives has to do with the conservative platform on christian values like pro life which is an important issue for many catholics.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:30 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Thats one reason,Another reason for latino voters in general (not specifically cubans) to support the conservatives has to do with the conservative platform on christian values like pro life which is an important issue for many catholics.
Yeah, it's really bad for the pollsters and the news orgs to keep lumping all hispanics/latinos as one group. There's a major separation within that community.
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On November 05 2020 07:29 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:26 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Republicans got what they needed from Trump. The SCOTUS and courts are in their hands, they passed the tax cuts and other legislation, and the Senate remains under their control. Biden's in for a rough two years with McConnell to check him, unless he's able to be the negotiator he was as Obama's VP or as a senator. Agreed. No need for the GOP to stick their necks too far for trump at this point
They have to be carefull,trump did bring them a lot of new supporters and succes that they would not want to lose.
I think the change that trump brought to the party is at least partially permanent.
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On November 05 2020 07:26 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:24 Shingi11 wrote:
The thing is we are starting to gather is a lot of the ground reporters who where covering the days and weeks up to the vote said they could feel the enthusiasm for Trump. Pollsters had to be felling that to but despite that they still called it that Trump was going to lose in a landslide. What data point where they get that massively counter balanced this enthusiasm for there numbers. Enthusiasm helps with big voter turnout, while the opposite always hurts (see Clinton). Trump has done one thing right, which is to really rile up his supporters and get those massive crowds for his rallies. Every political running for Senate/President should take a page out of Trump's and Sander's book.
I honestly don't know a single person who was enthusiastic about Biden. My left-leaning friends and family all still voted but that's because we always vote. Thinking about how many would-be first time voters and detached independents who said they'd vote Biden but skipped out on election day there are is pretty disheartening. I mean, the meme has been Sleepy Joe since the start of the primary. The guy has no energy and he excites no one. If he wins, the Dems ought to thank the coronavirus and Trump's abysmal mishandling of it.
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On November 05 2020 07:32 StasisField wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:26 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:24 Shingi11 wrote:
The thing is we are starting to gather is a lot of the ground reporters who where covering the days and weeks up to the vote said they could feel the enthusiasm for Trump. Pollsters had to be felling that to but despite that they still called it that Trump was going to lose in a landslide. What data point where they get that massively counter balanced this enthusiasm for there numbers. Enthusiasm helps with big voter turnout, while the opposite always hurts (see Clinton). Trump has done one thing right, which is to really rile up his supporters and get those massive crowds for his rallies. Every political running for Senate/President should take a page out of Trump's and Sander's book. I honestly don't know a single person who was enthusiastic about Biden. My left-leaning friends and family all still voted but that's because we always vote. Thinking about how many would-be first time voters and detached independents who said they'd vote Biden but skipped out on election day there are is pretty disheartening. I mean, the meme has been Sleepy Joe since the start of the primary. The guy has no energy and he excites no one. If he wins, the Dems ought to thank the coronavirus and Trump's abysmal mishandling of it.
enthusiasm against trump does not HAVE to mean enthusiasm for Joe B. which is depressing, but the current state of affairs around my parts.
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On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo.
My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist".
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On November 05 2020 07:26 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:24 Shingi11 wrote:
The thing is we are starting to gather is a lot of the ground reporters who where covering the days and weeks up to the vote said they could feel the enthusiasm for Trump. Pollsters had to be felling that to but despite that they still called it that Trump was going to lose in a landslide. What data point where they get that massively counter balanced this enthusiasm for there numbers. Enthusiasm helps with big voter turnout, while the opposite always hurts (see Clinton). Trump has done one thing right, which is to really rile up his supporters and get those massive crowds for his rallies. Every political running for Senate/President should take a page out of Trump's and Sander's book.
They're going to take the wrong messages away from it. The current crop of leading politicians are just... very bad at that type of politics. (Pelosi and McConnell are very skilled at in-person politics but that's a very different skillset).
Examples I can see happening:
Rubio dying his hair white, standing on stage, and talking in a brooklyn jewish accent about how we need to support the millionaires and billionaires.
Kamala Harris bragging that her hands aren't small, so something else isn't small.
Chuck Schumer calling mexicans "murderers, rapists, and some, I assume, are good people"
Ted Cruz bragging about watching incest porn, while making creepy motions towards his (underage) daughter at an evangelical prayer breakfast.
Pete Buttigieg saying that he avoided paying taxes to look smart (it's later a scandal when it turns out he DID, in fact, pay his taxes properly).
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On November 05 2020 07:30 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Thats one reason,Another reason for latino voters in general (not specifically cubans) to support the conservatives has to do with the conservative platform on christian values like pro life which is an important issue for many catholics.
also his rhetoric this election season was a lot less racist than in 2016.
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On November 04 2020 12:21 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 12:16 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Dems just flipped a house seat in Missouri with a notably progressive candidate. I'm happy libertarian Nick Freitas walloped Spanberger in VA.
Good call on that one! Spanberger currently leads with one batch of absentee ballots remaining by 1.2.
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Honestly, I worry about potential chaos in the streets either late tonight or tomorrow, once Trump supporters realize they lost the election.
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Looking at how the election is turning out and still.. this many people voting for trump I wonder.. had koreans/japanese were given the size of US territory/resources would they have dominated the world?
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On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist".
Yep that somewhat worked.
Go figure.
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On November 05 2020 07:38 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist". Yep that somewhat worked. Go figure.
If that worked on Biden, I can only imagine how persuasive it'd be against a Sanders run, where even some moderate Democrats think Sanders is a full-blown socialist/Communist.
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Makes me wonder what the trump campaign will do if NV is called later tonight, what if PA as well? They called a lid already so they can't go back out and try to talk to a press that has left. We might see a very deranged Twitter cycle in the next few hours.
Gabriel Sherman: A civil war is raging between Fox News and Donald Trump over Fox's controversial decision to be the first media outlet to call Arizona for Joe Biden just before 11:30 p.m. last night. According to a source, Trump phoned Fox owner Rupert Murdoch to scream about the call and demand a retraction. Murdoch refused, and the call stood. Trump and Murdoch have been at odds for months over election coverage. In September, I reported that Trump complained to Murdoch about Fox's polling. Murdoch has been telling associates for months that Trump would lose the election.
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I think biden did great. Such a long career and then in the end defeat (or not,yet to be seen) the most controversial president since a long time who went for his 2nd term. Who else from the democratic nominees could have done this? I dont think anyone else could have pulled this off or come this close. Biden had the name recognition and he was a safe choice for many people in the middle.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Honestly, I worry about potential chaos in the streets either late tonight or tomorrow, once Trump supporters realize they lost the election.
yeah i expect the chaos to start soon. Michigan already saw people at the clerks office trying to get them to stop counting, and Nevada we saw that guy run up to the broadcast. It's gonna start, expect the worst in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan
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I hope Biden wins. As a European, that will give us more unity around the world. Also, America could rejoin the Paris agreement.
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EPT
