EPT2020 US Election - Page 121
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 05 2020 06:28 kidcrash wrote: Do the democrats have a realistic path to a senate majority? What happens with the Georgia run offs? The most realistic path is the pretty morbid one of covid indiscriminately hitting GOP senators instead of democratic ones. Still not very realistic or likely though. The ones who were vulnerable were the idiots who went to the rose garden maskless and they're all still fine. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims. I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote: One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters. He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims. I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote: One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters. He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims. I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately If it was trafalgar or rasmussen they ask them how their neighbors are voting and count that as their vote, iirc. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12595 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:09 Nevuk wrote: If it was trafalgar or rasmussen they ask them how their neighbors are voting and count that as their vote, iirc. Which is entirely stupid, by the way | ||
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Sent.
Poland9331 Posts
On November 05 2020 06:55 Shingi11 wrote: I just don't understand how you can be embarrassed to say you are going to vote for someonr and have to hide it in shame but still do it anyway. How do you cognitively process that and not have your brain explode. What's so hard to understand? They want to avoid dealing with annoying people who don't accept their views, and hiding your views when speaking to strangers is the easiest way to achieve that. They're not embarrassed when speaking to their friends. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
Yes. It's moronic. Trafalgar wound up with a bunch of way too R results and flooded the RCP average with them, even going by apparent results. Their crosstabs were also insane things like Trump getting 20-25% of the democratic vote. We have to see how the vote ends up at the end, really, to accurately judge polls. The last counted votes are going to be late mail in ballots, and they could make MI wind up within the normal MOE (though on the low end : +3 vs +7) for instance, not to mention GA/NC and NV or others. State polls look like they were at least as off as in 2016. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Kyadytim
United States886 Posts
On November 05 2020 06:43 FlaShFTW wrote: These polls are whacky. Texas was +2 trump, he won by +6. Florida was a toss up, even lean biden by 1 point, Trump won by 2.5 points. Ohio was +2/3 Trump, he won by 8, same thing in Iowa (that Selzer poll was dead on actually). NC was +2 Biden, most likely it'll be +1 Trump by the end of the counting. Wisconsin and Michigan were +6 for Biden, Wisconsin is less than 1 point, Michigan probs will be around 2-3 points. These polls were once again an entire standard deviation off in favor of Trump. Maybe it's just the Trump effect, maybe hte polls are just bad. who knows anymore, regardless, they suck. I am pretty sure that all of the states you listed are states where the GOP has held the statehouse for a while, so part of the gap between polling and voting could be explained by Republican voter suppression efforts paying off. | ||
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farvacola
United States18870 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:21 Kyadytim wrote: I am pretty sure that all of the states you listed are states where the GOP has held the statehouse for a while, so part of the gap between polling and voting could be explained by Republican voter suppression efforts paying off. A trend which will start changing as neutral redistricting commissions start getting to work. Michigan's will go through its first cycle in '22 iirc, and Virginia just passed one. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote: I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. Also, hey, look, a bunch of republicans finally found their spine. Exactly at the same time as Trump came up a loser in the election. I'm sure there's absolutely no connection there. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote: Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. Also, hey, look, a bunch of republicans finally found their spine. Exactly at the same time as Trump came up a loser in the election. I'm sure there's absolutely no connection there. https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1324095568315060236 Yep they're fleeing in droves now that they realize tying themselves to the trump boat is actually an anchor now, not a lifeboat. Fuck these spineless republicans. Also PA batch came in: lead is now 303k. Expect the next update to have Trump leading by less than 300k. Georgia still no updates, holding at 68k lead for Trump. Atlanta has a ton of votes left. | ||
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Shingi11
290 Posts
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Diavlo
Belgium2915 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:19 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: No idea if Atlanta area has been counted... https://twitter.com/DeanObeidallah/status/1324112416855216134 Looking at the counties, if trend stay the same, there are around 50000 swing votes in DeKalb, Richmond and Clayton alone. It's looking more and more likely that it will flip. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:24 Shingi11 wrote: The thing is we are starting to gather is a lot of the ground reporters who where covering the days and weeks up to the vote said they could feel the enthusiasm for Trump. Pollsters had to be felling that to but despite that they still called it that Trump was going to lose in a landslide. What data point where they get that massively counter balanced this enthusiasm for there numbers. Enthusiasm helps with big voter turnout, while the opposite always hurts (see Clinton). Trump has done one thing right, which is to really rile up his supporters and get those massive crowds for his rallies. Every political running for Senate/President should take a page out of Trump's and Sander's book. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32755 Posts
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