|
United States10532 Posts
Update: PA lead is now down to exactly 300k.
|
On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist".
It’s almost as if any Dem nominee would’ve been branded a socialist, so Donna Shalala and CNN disingenuously claiming that Bernie would lose Florida seem really dumb. Icing on the cake is that Shalala was upset last night in Miami-Dade and lost her House seat to boot. It was probably Bernie’s fault
|
On November 05 2020 07:40 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Honestly, I worry about potential chaos in the streets either late tonight or tomorrow, once Trump supporters realize they lost the election. yeah i expect the chaos to start soon. Michigan already saw people at the clerks office trying to get them to stop counting, and Nevada we saw that guy run up to the broadcast. It's gonna start, expect the worst in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan
On the positive side, my buddy living in the Ferndale area, a fabulous little area north of Detroit known for its LGBTQ community, tells me the sidewalks are full of giddy people wearing Biden gear.
On November 05 2020 07:41 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist". It’s almost as if any Dem nominee would’ve been branded a socialist, so Donna Shalala and CNN disingenuously claiming that Bernie would lose Florida seem really dumb. Icing on the cake is that Shalala was upset last night in Miami-Dade and lost her House seat to boot. It was probably Bernie’s fault
Shalala is the opposite of politicians like Tlaib imo, she represents baggage Dems need to shed before they can truly build consensus.
|
United States10532 Posts
Biden has broken the 300k vote difference between him and Trump in PA now. 290k! Philly county is still sitting at 70% reporting so there's still that 150k vote to be counted.
|
On November 05 2020 07:41 FlaShFTW wrote:
Update: PA lead is now down to exactly 300k.
with total reported votes only being at 85% that seems like secure flip. Trumps lead was like 800k at around 70% votes reported iirc?
|
United States10532 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:46 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:41 FlaShFTW wrote:
Update: PA lead is now down to exactly 300k. with total reported votes only being at 85% that seems like secure flip. Trumps lead was like 800k at around 70% votes reported iirc?
Yeah something like that. Biden has more than cut it in half. and with the philly votes still out there, it's looking like a strong flip.
|
On November 05 2020 07:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:38 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist". Yep that somewhat worked. Go figure. If that worked on Biden, I can only imagine how persuasive it'd be against a Sanders run, where even some moderate Democrats think Sanders is a full-blown socialist/Communist.
Who should they have run instead of Biden to avoid it? There's almost no one to his right in the party. I think chasing those votes is a pipe dream (and dem strategists seem to agree : they've spent either 200 or 400 million in the last two cycles and lost and say they're just skipping it in 2024 per some twitter talk).
On November 05 2020 07:41 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist". It’s almost as if any Dem nominee would’ve been branded a socialist, so Donna Shalala and CNN disingenuously claiming that Bernie would lose Florida seem really dumb. Icing on the cake is that Shalala was upset last night in Miami-Dade and lost her House seat to boot. It was probably Bernie’s fault
Basically this. Biden worked this year, but his strategy is going to fall flat on its face in 2024, unless Trump is an isolated one off (possibly, but unlikely).
|
|
|
On November 05 2020 07:34 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 12:21 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 12:16 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Dems just flipped a house seat in Missouri with a notably progressive candidate. I'm happy libertarian Nick Freitas walloped Spanberger in VA. Good call on that one! Spanberger currently leads with one batch of absentee ballots remaining by 1.2.
Thank God, I had never heard of Nick Freitas but I presume he’s the fuckstick who has bombarded me with Spanberger hate ads for a fucking month, the dumb shitty prick. I WANT TO REWATCH JIMQUISITIONS IN PEACE THANKS.
|
So another question for you all. In another world where Bernie won the primary do you see him improving this map at all. If I am going to be honest I think he loses. I dont think the berne bros pull him over the blue wall.
|
Aww man. I could have sworn he'd had it if he'd just held on a bit longer.
|
Northern Ireland27240 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:34 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:26 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:24 Shingi11 wrote:
The thing is we are starting to gather is a lot of the ground reporters who where covering the days and weeks up to the vote said they could feel the enthusiasm for Trump. Pollsters had to be felling that to but despite that they still called it that Trump was going to lose in a landslide. What data point where they get that massively counter balanced this enthusiasm for there numbers. Enthusiasm helps with big voter turnout, while the opposite always hurts (see Clinton). Trump has done one thing right, which is to really rile up his supporters and get those massive crowds for his rallies. Every political running for Senate/President should take a page out of Trump's and Sander's book. They're going to take the wrong messages away from it. The current crop of leading politicians are just... very bad at that type of politics. (Pelosi and McConnell are very skilled at in-person politics but that's a very different skillset). Examples I can see happening: Rubio dying his hair white, standing on stage, and talking in a brooklyn jewish accent about how we need to support the millionaires and billionaires. Kamala Harris bragging that her hands aren't small, so something else isn't small. Chuck Schumer calling mexicans "murderers, rapists, and some, I assume, are good people" Ted Cruz bragging about watching incest porn, while making creepy motions towards his (underage) daughter at an evangelical prayer breakfast. Pete Buttigieg saying that he avoided paying taxes to look smart (it's later a scandal when it turns out he DID, in fact, pay his taxes properly).
What a glorious future we have ahead of ourselves.
But aye people tend to be pretty bad in their analysis of x worked so let’s do x. It really doesn’t work like that.
I think there is some degree of appetite for say, a more firey and charged rhetoric sure, but only when it’s allied to actual conviction. Especially when augmented with some actual competence around issues.
This election has been pretty bizarre. These are the kind of results I could have seen if the Trump administration had knocked it out of the park with Covid and that pseudo-wartime mentality superseding what came before it and ‘normal’ politics.
That Trump is this close having not knocked it out of the park, but struck out including one effort where he accidentally threw his bat and brained the pitcher is genuinely confusing to me.
That said it’s early doors and a lot of the data and analysis will follow that shall not doubt make things more explicable for filthy European lefties like myself.
|
On November 05 2020 07:48 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:34 darthfoley wrote:On November 04 2020 12:21 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 12:16 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Dems just flipped a house seat in Missouri with a notably progressive candidate. I'm happy libertarian Nick Freitas walloped Spanberger in VA. Good call on that one! Spanberger currently leads with one batch of absentee ballots remaining by 1.2. Thank God, I had never heard of Nick Freitas but I presume he’s the fuckstick who has bombarded me with Spanberger hate ads for a fucking month, the dumb shitty prick. I WANT TO REWATCH JIMQUISITIONS IN PEACE THANKS.
Yeah I voted for her but I became very tried of the Spanberger "I worked for the CIA and will fight tax raises on craft beer brewers" commercials lol
|
Northern Ireland27240 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:48 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:34 darthfoley wrote:On November 04 2020 12:21 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 12:16 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Dems just flipped a house seat in Missouri with a notably progressive candidate. I'm happy libertarian Nick Freitas walloped Spanberger in VA. Good call on that one! Spanberger currently leads with one batch of absentee ballots remaining by 1.2. Thank God, I had never heard of Nick Freitas but I presume he’s the fuckstick who has bombarded me with Spanberger hate ads for a fucking month, the dumb shitty prick. I WANT TO REWATCH JIMQUISITIONS IN PEACE THANKS.
A fellow man of taste I see. Thank god for me.
|
On November 05 2020 07:50 Shingi11 wrote:
So another question for you all. In another world where Bernie won the primary do you see him improving this map at all. If I am going to be honest I think he loses. I dont think the berne bros pull him over the blue wall.
Frankly it's hard to know. The existing data suggest that he would have lost, but there would have been a campaign, debates and a lot of time to rally liberals around his banner.
It's just too hypothetical to get even an educated answer.
|
On November 05 2020 07:40 SC-Shield wrote:
I hope Biden wins. As a European, that will give us more unity around the world. Also, America could rejoin the Paris agreement.
For the next four years, until Trump runs again and Democrats nominate a sack of potatoes because they couldn't find a bland enough human.
|
On November 05 2020 07:50 Shingi11 wrote:
So another question for you all. In another world where Bernie won the primary do you see him improving this map at all. If I am going to be honest I think he loses. I dont think the berne bros pull him over the blue wall.
i think he would do better in swing states and worse in red states
|
On November 05 2020 07:47 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 05 2020 07:38 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist". Yep that somewhat worked. Go figure. If that worked on Biden, I can only imagine how persuasive it'd be against a Sanders run, where even some moderate Democrats think Sanders is a full-blown socialist/Communist. Who should they have run instead of Biden to avoid it? There's almost no one to his right in the party. I think chasing those votes is a pipe dream (and dem strategists seem to agree : they've spent either 200 or 400 million in the last two cycles and lost and say they're just skipping it in 2024 per some twitter talk). Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 07:41 darthfoley wrote:On November 05 2020 07:34 Starlightsun wrote:On November 05 2020 07:22 Nevuk wrote:On November 05 2020 07:17 JimmiC wrote:On November 05 2020 07:08 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 07:06 Artisreal wrote:
One pollster interviewed on BBC world service today whose polls supposedly have been more accurate told the interviewer that they assure more anonymity (however they do that) compared to other pollsters. Citing fear of social repercussions as a deterrent to not even tell friends of the voting intention, or other pollsters.
He didn't go into detail what else they do differently, to not lose the advantage, or so he claims.
I think it was in the first hour of newshour iirc. Didn't catch the name unfortunately So shy trump/tory is still real and alive then. I'm not sure we will know until all the demographics and stuff are all analyzed. One person was saying yesterday that Trump had done a "exceptional job Fracking his base" and went on to explain that he had got way more of his base to show up than was expected rather than that people were not honest with who they were going to vote for. I do think the Cuban vote so heavily favoring Trump was shocking to most and also shocking to many progressive's just how deep the hatred for Castro and his Cuba are. I think there is a misconception that all of the bad you hear about Cuba is American propaganda, the numbers here suggest that Cubans themselves hate Castro's Cuba so much that even the remote chance of America becoming close to it is too frightening for them to even vote for a centerist. Well, they're morons then. The only balm for progressives was that it looked like "Biden is a communist" attacks weren't sticking as well as they would have with Bernie or Warren. Now we know that they did, and it feels entirely pointless to run a moderate in the future. People who believed Biden is a communist will never be convinced that any democrat isn't a socialist. That was the strongest argument for Bernie when this point was brought up : that criticism was going to be used no matter WHO the nominee was. Their vote has directly increased the likelihood of a socialist on the ticket in the future, imo. My Mom lives in Florida and she said they were completely bombarded with over-the-top ads about Biden being a socialist or communist. Maybe that campaign was effective against Cubans who might not otherwise think "Democrat = communist". It’s almost as if any Dem nominee would’ve been branded a socialist, so Donna Shalala and CNN disingenuously claiming that Bernie would lose Florida seem really dumb. Icing on the cake is that Shalala was upset last night in Miami-Dade and lost her House seat to boot. It was probably Bernie’s fault Basically this. Biden worked this year, but his strategy is going to fall flat on its face in 2024, unless Trump is an isolated one off (possibly, but unlikely).
Trump is an unicum,i think its very likely that he is indeed an isolated one off for the republicans.
Though i do agree that the democrats will most likely need a different strategy in 2024.
And to another question:no i dont think sanders would have been able to win against trump.
|
United States10532 Posts
On November 05 2020 07:50 Shingi11 wrote:
So another question for you all. In another world where Bernie won the primary do you see him improving this map at all. If I am going to be honest I think he loses. I dont think the berne bros pull him over the blue wall.
Problem with Bernie is that he would get railed on by Trump for being socialist/communist, and for sure the northern blue wall is still moderate dems that would not want someone like a Bernie. With how close the north states are, I think Trump would repeat and even flip Nevada.
|
United States10532 Posts
GA UPDATE: Lead down to 60k flat. Chatam county just had some votes come in. Biden looks like he's actually gonan do it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
