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On November 05 2020 06:12 sharkie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 06:10 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 06:07 StasisField wrote:On November 05 2020 05:54 TheTenthDoc wrote:On November 05 2020 05:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Some various thoughts I have about the election so far. These will probably will be wrong as more information comes in or smarter people correct me, but based on what I'm seeing...
-COVID wasn't as big of an issue as Democrats projected. Re-opening economy, social and moral issues like abortion, fears about social unrest and rioting, the strength of Trump support and the spectre of socialism on Democrats maybe surpassed concerns about the pandemic.
-Democrats continue to face a critical rural vote problem. They need to make inroads outside of urban centres and suburban areas if they want safer victories.
-Florida and Ohio don't appear to be promising swing states for Democrats anymore. They're getting distinctly Trumpier and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
-The Sun Belt pivot from Democrats has to succeed because anointing a candidate who was sold on having the best bona fides with the Rust Belt just barely pulled it off it seems. I dunno. I think COVID was huge. Without it I don't think Democrats carry Wisconsin or Michigan, and they're both virtual locks at this point (especially if Trump stops the Michigan count LOL). Yeah I think Trump easily wins 2020 if not for covid. Defeating an incumbent president is incredibly rare in the US. Biden had the perfect storm of events to help him win and he's still barely looking like he will. Yep I agree. If Trump had a strong economy, nothing was going really wrong for him, Supreme Court was insane for him this term, he would've won handily. Probably mightve even picked up Nevada. Whats with this myth that covid lost trump the election? Covid has been horrible all over the world. It's not just Trump who has failed against it and in Europe the ruling parties gained votes in elections during covid A crisis helps sure up votes if your seeing as dealing with the crisis. Its not going to help you (shouldn't help you) if you pretend there is no crisis and actively make things worse.
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Honestly all Biden's numbers in called states look pretty much completely recount proof. They might even end up recount-proof in Pennsylvania.
It will take throwing away ballots to change the results.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 05 2020 06:22 Pr0wler wrote:
There is a difference between, "I think that nothing will happen." , "Its not likely to happen." and "It actually happened." The votes are not counted, so the factual truth is that the election is still not decided.
My dude you just tried to imply a Trump recount in Wisconsin is gonna flip 20k votes.
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United States43991 Posts
On November 05 2020 06:22 Pr0wler wrote:
There is a difference between, "I think that nothing will happen." , "Its not likely to happen." and "It actually happened." The votes are not counted, so the factual truth is that the election is still not decided.
That’s not how it works. You’re ignorant and strangely proud of it.
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So TL, you guys are smart. Think it's safe to throw a couple more grand at -525 on Biden at this point?
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What a rollercoaster ride. Trump is scrambling to hold on to his early win.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 05 2020 06:23 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So TL, you guys are smart. Think it's safe to throw a couple more grand at -525 on Biden at this point?
its 2020, you never know. Give me 1:1 odds and I'll take them, not at -525 LOL
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On November 05 2020 06:08 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +Are all the new Trump voters going to stay republican if they go with a non Trump?
No. My guess is, they will go with whoever libertarian is running. Probably not to the point where it's a realistic choice, but i'd bet we'll see a surge there.
What we are starting to hear from the reporters on the ground was that people where excited to vote for Trump. No one in the republican party has close to that level of personal appeal right now. As it looked Trump has lost and I dont think Ted Cruz is going to be pulling the same voters. Obama and now Trump have showen how massive your personal presence is no matter the party.
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On November 05 2020 06:23 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So TL, you guys are smart. Think it's safe to throw a couple more grand at -525 on Biden at this point?
Bruh should've done that when Biden was +300
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United States10402 Posts
Another batch in PA: Trump lead is down to 320k.
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On November 05 2020 05:40 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 05:37 m4ini wrote:Also, as seen in Spain, having more parties is so different it needs to be learned. Gridlocks which are unable to even form a government is pretty common, and giving huge concessions to small special interest parties is just a part of the game.
That's what makes it work though. Not everyone gets everything that they want, but most get something they can agree with in a coalition. Sometimes you even get liberal/progressive outcomes with a conservative party (like the CDU/conservatives in germany allowing a free vote on same sex marriage). I'm not saying there are no flaws, there certainly are. But the benefits so far outweigh the flaws by magnitudes so far. This. Parties cannot become as hostile to each other and rhetorics won't get as inflammatory when you know that in the election cycle you may cooperate with whoever is on the other side of the opposition-government divide. FPTP and resulting two-party system removes all incentives to cooperation (but should theoretically push both parties to the centre, which I feel was more true in the pre-Trump US)
Furthermore, being hostile doesn't work as well if there are more than two options. Usually being hostile makes both sides look bad, but ideally makes the other side look more bad than yourself. In a multi-party system, if you make yourself and some other guy look bad, a third party wins.
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On November 05 2020 06:24 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 06:23 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So TL, you guys are smart. Think it's safe to throw a couple more grand at -525 on Biden at this point? its 2020, you never know. Give me 1:1 odds and I'll take them, not at -525 LOL
I'm asking because I want to throw some more on the election on an actual site lol. the sentiment here seems guaranteed lmao
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On November 05 2020 06:23 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 06:19 sharkie wrote:On November 05 2020 06:15 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 06:12 sharkie wrote:On November 05 2020 06:10 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 06:07 StasisField wrote:On November 05 2020 05:54 TheTenthDoc wrote:On November 05 2020 05:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Some various thoughts I have about the election so far. These will probably will be wrong as more information comes in or smarter people correct me, but based on what I'm seeing...
-COVID wasn't as big of an issue as Democrats projected. Re-opening economy, social and moral issues like abortion, fears about social unrest and rioting, the strength of Trump support and the spectre of socialism on Democrats maybe surpassed concerns about the pandemic.
-Democrats continue to face a critical rural vote problem. They need to make inroads outside of urban centres and suburban areas if they want safer victories.
-Florida and Ohio don't appear to be promising swing states for Democrats anymore. They're getting distinctly Trumpier and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
-The Sun Belt pivot from Democrats has to succeed because anointing a candidate who was sold on having the best bona fides with the Rust Belt just barely pulled it off it seems. I dunno. I think COVID was huge. Without it I don't think Democrats carry Wisconsin or Michigan, and they're both virtual locks at this point (especially if Trump stops the Michigan count LOL). Yeah I think Trump easily wins 2020 if not for covid. Defeating an incumbent president is incredibly rare in the US. Biden had the perfect storm of events to help him win and he's still barely looking like he will. Yep I agree. If Trump had a strong economy, nothing was going really wrong for him, Supreme Court was insane for him this term, he would've won handily. Probably mightve even picked up Nevada. Whats with this myth that covid lost trump the election? Covid has been horrible all over the world. It's not just Trump who has failed against it and in Europe the ruling parties gained votes in elections during covid We're saying if covid didn't exist at all, Trump wins. I know that my family would've still voted for Trump, and many other families would have done the same in the swing states. And if his covid response was better, same thing would happen, many families would still want to support trump. COVID has been bad, but look at the countries that have done amazing like those eastern and south eastern asian countries, new zealand, australia. Because those countries have people who follow rules like you are supposed to. Europeans and US not so much. But covid isnt the topic of this thread so I will stop talking about it This is not the Covid thread, but it is much more complex than that. Having worked for as free movement of people as possible in Europe for decades did not help, for example. Asians have more experience dealing with pandemics, and being an island makes it a lot easier
Also, cultures, especially mask culture, are radically different in at least the US (idk about Europe) compared to Asia. It's definitely not as simple as "people in Asia follow rules and people in the West don't."
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On November 05 2020 06:23 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So TL, you guys are smart. Think it's safe to throw a couple more grand at -525 on Biden at this point?
I'd rather put like 10 bucks on Pence getting some time in office because Trump goes fully bananas, but the fees to make the bets kinda suck.
Most of the markets are a little too shady for me to feel comfortable putting down any money, and I don't know enough about their fee and withdrawal structure. But others are obviously more informed (and less risk-averse!)
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On November 05 2020 06:23 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 06:22 Pr0wler wrote:
There is a difference between, "I think that nothing will happen." , "Its not likely to happen." and "It actually happened." The votes are not counted, so the factual truth is that the election is still not decided. My dude you just tried to imply a Trump recount in Wisconsin is gonna flip 20k votes.
I'm trying to imply that facts actually matter.
Does Biden actually have 270 on the board ? No. So he called a win prematurely.
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On November 05 2020 06:24 shawster wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 06:23 FiWiFaKi wrote:
So TL, you guys are smart. Think it's safe to throw a couple more grand at -525 on Biden at this point? Bruh should've done that when Biden was +300
I likely won't need to work for a year after the election is called. Just want to go in even harder.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 05 2020 06:26 Pr0wler wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 06:23 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 06:22 Pr0wler wrote:
There is a difference between, "I think that nothing will happen." , "Its not likely to happen." and "It actually happened." The votes are not counted, so the factual truth is that the election is still not decided. My dude you just tried to imply a Trump recount in Wisconsin is gonna flip 20k votes. I'm trying to imply that facts actually matter. Does Biden actually have 270 on the board ? No. So he called a win prematurely.
holy shit youre actually just this dense. He never called a confirmed victory. He said the path looks like we'll have the 270 to win. Go rewatch it and troll somewhere else, this is got old fast.
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Official. Biden takes Michigan, everyone is calling it now.
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Do the democrats have a realistic path to a senate majority? What happens with the Georgia run offs?
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EPT
