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2020 US Election - Page 116

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Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1937 Posts
November 04 2020 21:12 GMT
#2301
A friend of mine is convinced that the inevitable legal steps the Trump campaign will take will be enough to overturn the result.

Is it anything in this? It seems like a lot of hot air about rigged elections and vote fraud coming from them so far, so I have serious doubts about how they stand up in court.
Buff the siegetank
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32747 Posts
November 04 2020 21:12 GMT
#2302
On November 05 2020 06:07 StasisField wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 05:54 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Some various thoughts I have about the election so far. These will probably will be wrong as more information comes in or smarter people correct me, but based on what I'm seeing...

-COVID wasn't as big of an issue as Democrats projected. Re-opening economy, social and moral issues like abortion, fears about social unrest and rioting, the strength of Trump support and the spectre of socialism on Democrats maybe surpassed concerns about the pandemic.
-Democrats continue to face a critical rural vote problem. They need to make inroads outside of urban centres and suburban areas if they want safer victories.
-Florida and Ohio don't appear to be promising swing states for Democrats anymore. They're getting distinctly Trumpier and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
-The Sun Belt pivot from Democrats has to succeed because anointing a candidate who was sold on having the best bona fides with the Rust Belt just barely pulled it off it seems.


I dunno. I think COVID was huge. Without it I don't think Democrats carry Wisconsin or Michigan, and they're both virtual locks at this point (especially if Trump stops the Michigan count LOL).

Yeah I think Trump easily wins 2020 if not for covid. Defeating an incumbent president is incredibly rare in the US. Biden had the perfect storm of events to help him win and he's still barely looking like he will.

As cynical and depraved as it sounds, I agree that COVID was really good for Biden politically. It may have shifted just enough voters in the Rust Belt to save him. And yeah, you're right that toppling an incumbent in today's political environment is still an impressive achievement. The last one-termer was H.W. Bush for reference.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
RenSC2
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States1090 Posts
November 04 2020 21:13 GMT
#2303
One thing I'd love to see and it might actually be viable is to use ranked preference voting in the primaries. Trying to do it right away in the main election would require a lot of legal changes whereas the parties have the ability to determine their own voting methods. In doing so, it would help familiarize people with ranked preference voting while also building the infrastructure to effectively do it. After a few cycles, it could get a large enough amount of support to change actual laws for the general election, which then opens the door for a multi-party system.

Like, the democrats could do it in 2022 primaries if there's enough party pressure to do it. Get rid of those god awful caucuses and maybe get better candidates without worrying about electability.
Playing better than standard requires deviation. This divergence usually results in sub-standard play.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 21:16:32
November 04 2020 21:14 GMT
#2304
On November 05 2020 06:12 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 06:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 05 2020 06:07 StasisField wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:54 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Some various thoughts I have about the election so far. These will probably will be wrong as more information comes in or smarter people correct me, but based on what I'm seeing...

-COVID wasn't as big of an issue as Democrats projected. Re-opening economy, social and moral issues like abortion, fears about social unrest and rioting, the strength of Trump support and the spectre of socialism on Democrats maybe surpassed concerns about the pandemic.
-Democrats continue to face a critical rural vote problem. They need to make inroads outside of urban centres and suburban areas if they want safer victories.
-Florida and Ohio don't appear to be promising swing states for Democrats anymore. They're getting distinctly Trumpier and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
-The Sun Belt pivot from Democrats has to succeed because anointing a candidate who was sold on having the best bona fides with the Rust Belt just barely pulled it off it seems.


I dunno. I think COVID was huge. Without it I don't think Democrats carry Wisconsin or Michigan, and they're both virtual locks at this point (especially if Trump stops the Michigan count LOL).

Yeah I think Trump easily wins 2020 if not for covid. Defeating an incumbent president is incredibly rare in the US. Biden had the perfect storm of events to help him win and he's still barely looking like he will.

Yep I agree. If Trump had a strong economy, nothing was going really wrong for him, Supreme Court was insane for him this term, he would've won handily. Probably mightve even picked up Nevada.


Whats with this myth that covid lost trump the election? Covid has been horrible all over the world. It's not just Trump who has failed against it and in Europe the ruling parties gained votes in elections during covid


Trump's polling numbers tracked with COVID outbreaks decently well. While the polls were off, I'm not sure there's a reason to believe *trends* in the polls were off, and Michigan and Wisconsin are currently facing disastrous spreads of the disease with Trump providing no relief whatsoever. I cannot help but feel that could change the vote of ~10K people.

On November 05 2020 06:12 Slydie wrote:
A friend of mine is convinced that the inevitable legal steps the Trump campaign will take will be enough to overturn the result.

Is it anything in this? It seems like a lot of hot air about rigged elections and vote fraud coming from them so far, so I have serious doubts about how they stand up in court.


It seems extremely unlikely. The only strategy I could see having a chance is faithless electors. There just aren't large enough vote margins* for anything like Bush v Gore to happen in enough states to win him the day. By now he would have signaled about specific legal issues, it's not like his lawyers haven't been thinking about this.

*pending AZ and NV results*
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10402 Posts
November 04 2020 21:15 GMT
#2305
On November 05 2020 06:12 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 06:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 05 2020 06:07 StasisField wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:54 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Some various thoughts I have about the election so far. These will probably will be wrong as more information comes in or smarter people correct me, but based on what I'm seeing...

-COVID wasn't as big of an issue as Democrats projected. Re-opening economy, social and moral issues like abortion, fears about social unrest and rioting, the strength of Trump support and the spectre of socialism on Democrats maybe surpassed concerns about the pandemic.
-Democrats continue to face a critical rural vote problem. They need to make inroads outside of urban centres and suburban areas if they want safer victories.
-Florida and Ohio don't appear to be promising swing states for Democrats anymore. They're getting distinctly Trumpier and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
-The Sun Belt pivot from Democrats has to succeed because anointing a candidate who was sold on having the best bona fides with the Rust Belt just barely pulled it off it seems.


I dunno. I think COVID was huge. Without it I don't think Democrats carry Wisconsin or Michigan, and they're both virtual locks at this point (especially if Trump stops the Michigan count LOL).

Yeah I think Trump easily wins 2020 if not for covid. Defeating an incumbent president is incredibly rare in the US. Biden had the perfect storm of events to help him win and he's still barely looking like he will.

Yep I agree. If Trump had a strong economy, nothing was going really wrong for him, Supreme Court was insane for him this term, he would've won handily. Probably mightve even picked up Nevada.


Whats with this myth that covid lost trump the election? Covid has been horrible all over the world. It's not just Trump who has failed against it and in Europe the ruling parties gained votes in elections during covid

We're saying if covid didn't exist at all, Trump wins. I know that my family would've still voted for Trump, and many other families would have done the same in the swing states.

And if his covid response was better, same thing would happen, many families would still want to support trump.

COVID has been bad, but look at the countries that have done amazing like those eastern and south eastern asian countries, new zealand, australia.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Deleted User 26513
Profile Joined February 2007
2376 Posts
November 04 2020 21:15 GMT
#2306
Biden just declared victory prematurely... Someone outraged ?
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10402 Posts
November 04 2020 21:16 GMT
#2307
On November 05 2020 06:12 Slydie wrote:
A friend of mine is convinced that the inevitable legal steps the Trump campaign will take will be enough to overturn the result.

Is it anything in this? It seems like a lot of hot air about rigged elections and vote fraud coming from them so far, so I have serious doubts about how they stand up in court.

I mean it shouldn't have any legal grounds in court. But that being said, we do have a 6-3 Court with really really partisan judges. I do expect Roberts to obvious rule against Trump, but we just need to see if Thomas, Alito will join him.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
November 04 2020 21:17 GMT
#2308
CNN calling MI for Biden.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10402 Posts
November 04 2020 21:17 GMT
#2309
On November 05 2020 06:15 Pr0wler wrote:
Biden just declared victory prematurely... Someone outraged ?

Theoretical victory not a confirmed victory.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45937 Posts
November 04 2020 21:17 GMT
#2310
On November 05 2020 06:15 Pr0wler wrote:
Biden just declared victory prematurely... Someone outraged ?


It's not premature.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 21:19:16
November 04 2020 21:18 GMT
#2311
Only thing I kind of question Biden saying is they flipped AZ. I think we won't know that with 99% certainty until 9PM.

I wonder how mad it makes Trump that he's going to lose the popular vote by over 3 million votes.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43991 Posts
November 04 2020 21:18 GMT
#2312
On November 05 2020 06:15 Pr0wler wrote:
Biden just declared victory prematurely... Someone outraged ?

They counted the votes. Do you not see how it’s different to declare before vs after?
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18636 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 21:20:14
November 04 2020 21:19 GMT
#2313
On November 05 2020 06:15 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 06:12 sharkie wrote:
On November 05 2020 06:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 05 2020 06:07 StasisField wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:54 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Some various thoughts I have about the election so far. These will probably will be wrong as more information comes in or smarter people correct me, but based on what I'm seeing...

-COVID wasn't as big of an issue as Democrats projected. Re-opening economy, social and moral issues like abortion, fears about social unrest and rioting, the strength of Trump support and the spectre of socialism on Democrats maybe surpassed concerns about the pandemic.
-Democrats continue to face a critical rural vote problem. They need to make inroads outside of urban centres and suburban areas if they want safer victories.
-Florida and Ohio don't appear to be promising swing states for Democrats anymore. They're getting distinctly Trumpier and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
-The Sun Belt pivot from Democrats has to succeed because anointing a candidate who was sold on having the best bona fides with the Rust Belt just barely pulled it off it seems.


I dunno. I think COVID was huge. Without it I don't think Democrats carry Wisconsin or Michigan, and they're both virtual locks at this point (especially if Trump stops the Michigan count LOL).

Yeah I think Trump easily wins 2020 if not for covid. Defeating an incumbent president is incredibly rare in the US. Biden had the perfect storm of events to help him win and he's still barely looking like he will.

Yep I agree. If Trump had a strong economy, nothing was going really wrong for him, Supreme Court was insane for him this term, he would've won handily. Probably mightve even picked up Nevada.


Whats with this myth that covid lost trump the election? Covid has been horrible all over the world. It's not just Trump who has failed against it and in Europe the ruling parties gained votes in elections during covid

We're saying if covid didn't exist at all, Trump wins. I know that my family would've still voted for Trump, and many other families would have done the same in the swing states.

And if his covid response was better, same thing would happen, many families would still want to support trump.

COVID has been bad, but look at the countries that have done amazing like those eastern and south eastern asian countries, new zealand, australia.


Because those countries have people who follow rules like you are supposed to. Europeans and US not so much.
But covid isnt the topic of this thread so I will stop talking about it
Deleted User 26513
Profile Joined February 2007
2376 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 21:20:16
November 04 2020 21:19 GMT
#2314
There are still NV, AZ, PA, NC, GA still not decided... You just can't stop building your narative, do you ?

THere will be second counting in WI, too.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10402 Posts
November 04 2020 21:21 GMT
#2315
On November 05 2020 06:19 Pr0wler wrote:
There are still NV, AZ, PA, NC, GA still not decided... You just can't stop building your narative, do you ?

AP already called Arizona, Nevada only has blue votes left. Even if Biden loses PA, NC, GA, he has exactly 270.

It's not a narrative. I personally don't think that Arizona can be called right now with the margin shrinking but it's not entirely premature when AP, a very conservative calling station, has called Arizona.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 21:22:03
November 04 2020 21:21 GMT
#2316
On November 05 2020 06:19 Pr0wler wrote:
There are still NV, AZ, PA, NC, GA still not decided... You just can't stop building your narative, do you ?

THere will be second counting in WI, too.


WI is locked. There's no way a recount there turns up 10K Trump votes. It would be the most impactful recount in the history of the United States by a factor of more than 10.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10402 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-04 21:21:56
November 04 2020 21:21 GMT
#2317
On November 05 2020 06:19 Pr0wler wrote:
THere will be second counting in WI, too.

My guy there has never been a recount with over .5% difference that has ever made a difference. Trump only got 100 votes more in the 2016 Wisconsin recount. You think 20k votes are gonna get flipped? Jesus. Who's the narrative guy now?
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
StasisField
Profile Joined August 2013
United States1086 Posts
November 04 2020 21:22 GMT
#2318
On November 05 2020 06:19 Pr0wler wrote:
There are still NV, AZ, PA, NC, GA still not decided... You just can't stop building your narative, do you ?

THere will be second counting in WI, too.

And Biden leads in 2 of those states with only early and mail-in ballots to go for all of those states, and Biden's numbers are exceptional with early and mail-in ballot voters.

If you really think a recount is going to change 21,000+ votes then I don't know what to say lol
What do you mean Immortals can't shoot up?
Deleted User 26513
Profile Joined February 2007
2376 Posts
November 04 2020 21:22 GMT
#2319
There is a difference between, "I think that nothing will happen." , "Its not likely to happen." and "It actually happened." The votes are not counted, so the factual truth is that the election is still not decided.
Slydie
Profile Joined August 2013
1937 Posts
November 04 2020 21:23 GMT
#2320
On November 05 2020 06:19 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 06:15 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 05 2020 06:12 sharkie wrote:
On November 05 2020 06:10 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 05 2020 06:07 StasisField wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:54 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 05:42 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Some various thoughts I have about the election so far. These will probably will be wrong as more information comes in or smarter people correct me, but based on what I'm seeing...

-COVID wasn't as big of an issue as Democrats projected. Re-opening economy, social and moral issues like abortion, fears about social unrest and rioting, the strength of Trump support and the spectre of socialism on Democrats maybe surpassed concerns about the pandemic.
-Democrats continue to face a critical rural vote problem. They need to make inroads outside of urban centres and suburban areas if they want safer victories.
-Florida and Ohio don't appear to be promising swing states for Democrats anymore. They're getting distinctly Trumpier and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
-The Sun Belt pivot from Democrats has to succeed because anointing a candidate who was sold on having the best bona fides with the Rust Belt just barely pulled it off it seems.


I dunno. I think COVID was huge. Without it I don't think Democrats carry Wisconsin or Michigan, and they're both virtual locks at this point (especially if Trump stops the Michigan count LOL).

Yeah I think Trump easily wins 2020 if not for covid. Defeating an incumbent president is incredibly rare in the US. Biden had the perfect storm of events to help him win and he's still barely looking like he will.

Yep I agree. If Trump had a strong economy, nothing was going really wrong for him, Supreme Court was insane for him this term, he would've won handily. Probably mightve even picked up Nevada.


Whats with this myth that covid lost trump the election? Covid has been horrible all over the world. It's not just Trump who has failed against it and in Europe the ruling parties gained votes in elections during covid

We're saying if covid didn't exist at all, Trump wins. I know that my family would've still voted for Trump, and many other families would have done the same in the swing states.

And if his covid response was better, same thing would happen, many families would still want to support trump.

COVID has been bad, but look at the countries that have done amazing like those eastern and south eastern asian countries, new zealand, australia.


Because those countries have people who follow rules like you are supposed to. Europeans and US not so much.
But covid isnt the topic of this thread so I will stop talking about it


This is not the Covid thread, but it is much more complex than that. Having worked for as free movement of people as possible in Europe for decades did not help, for example. Asians have more experience dealing with pandemics, and being an island makes it a lot easier
Buff the siegetank
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