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KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On November 05 2020 04:58 farvacola wrote: The Trump Campaign is starting to flood supporters with "DEFEND DEMOCRACY!" emails Which is weird because he isn't claiming that he won the popular vote. | ||
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EnDeR_
Spain2879 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:17 Starlightsun wrote: I think ranked voting and having more parties than two would deal a big blow to the bullshit gridlock we have. Imagine if we had more choices than d and r. This. It's not democrat views or republican views that are the problem - it's the entire shitshow that is the two party system. There's more than two political views. Neither republicans nor democrats can and/or should cater to everyone leaning slightly liberal/conservative despite of the actual political views. It's stupid to even suggest so. Turn the DNC progressive, i'd bet money on it, you lose considerably more votes than you gain from catering to progressives now. Then what? | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Biden doesnt need PA but there is also Nevada with only 8k votes difference. If Nevada flips and everything elses goes the way it has been trending thus far trump would still win. @the tenthdoc. Oh that i didnt see yet,i guess that is more or less safe then. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:22 pmh wrote: It looks kinda tricky still. I dont see how biden can make up 400k votes in PA with about 1 million votes left to count. He would have to win 70% of that and he is slightly below 70% in the most democratic leaning country. Biden doesnt need PA but there is also Nevada with only 8k votes difference. If Nevada flips and everything elses goes the way it has been trending thus far trump would still win. Nevada flipping would be pretty nuts. Most of the outstanding vote is early votes from Vegas/Clark County (in fact, my impression is that ALL outstanding NV vote is early or provisional ballots). It would be very weird to see it favor Trump based on how early voting dynamics have played out elsewhere. Similarly, Biden's margins in PA in the early vote that's currently being counted have been better than 70-30; that's the main reason he still has a chance there. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 13m ago Officials in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, have said they will update results around 9 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local time) on Wednesday. Well shit that's 3am here. I went to bed at 4:30 yesterday, can't afford it again... | ||
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KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:22 pmh wrote: It looks kinda tricky still. I dont see how biden can make up 400k votes in PA with about 1 million votes left to count. He would have to win 70% of that and he is slightly below 70% in the most democratic leaning country. Biden doesnt need PA but there is also Nevada with only 8k votes difference. If Nevada flips and everything elses goes the way it has been trending thus far trump would still win. This is the wrong way of counting it. You don't project based on the votes recorded to date, you project based on the inverse of them. Imagine you have 50 white rocks and 50 black rocks in a jar. You pull 40 white rocks and 10 black rocks from the jar and count them. What you're doing is projecting that the 50 rocks that remain in the jar would also be 40 white and 10 black based on the 4:1 white to black ratio you've already seen. But that ignores the selection bias in your original choosing of which rocks to pick, the reality is that the bigger the white rock win in the 50 you've already counted, the larger the projected black rock win in the 50 yet to be counted. If the votes already counted were randomly picked and proportionate to the population as a whole you'd be right. But they're not. Trump specifically told his supporters not to vote early. Biden specifically told them to. That makes them inversely representative. The bigger the Trump win in the in-person voting, the fewer Trump voters there are left to vote by mail. Hope that makes sense. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:25 Nouar wrote: Well shit that's 3am here. I went to bed at 4:30 yesterday, can't afford it again... Thankfully I'm on the west coast. 6pm for me. If I can sleep at a reasonable time today, my body will thank me. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:25 Nouar wrote: Well shit that's 3am here. I went to bed at 4:30 yesterday, can't afford it again... The fun won't be today; it'll be over the next weeks or so as we litigate the election in the court of forever recounts. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States45937 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:26 KwarK wrote: This is the wrong way of counting it. You don't project based on the votes recorded to date, you project based on the inverse of them. Imagine you have 50 white rocks and 50 black rocks in a jar. You pull 40 white rocks and 10 black rocks from the jar and count them. What you're doing is projecting that the 50 rocks that remain in the jar would also be 40 white and 10 black based on the 4:1 white to black ratio you've already seen. But that ignores the selection bias in your original choosing of which rocks to pick, the reality is that the bigger the white rock win in the 50 you've already counted, the larger the projected black rock win in the 50 yet to be counted. If the votes already counted were randomly picked and proportionate to the population as a whole you'd be right. But they're not. Trump specifically told his supporters not to vote early. Biden specifically told them to. That makes them inversely representative. Hope that makes sense. Well said, although we don't exactly know how many white and black rocks remain to be counted (or else we'd already know who won the state). | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
It relies on a different base and they're reluctant to use it since it has a lower history of turning out (since, duh, it's a group with nearly 0 representation) and demographically is very different. Would be going all-in on the sunbelt instead of the rust belt, basically. I think it's basically a must in the future though. The Rust Belt strategy, with the rust beltiest of candidates barely won this time, and I see 0 signs those states will become easier in 2024. The anti-union actions of 90s democrats (ie NAFTA) lost those voters for good. It's also legitimately hard to feel a connection to someone who is almost 80 if you're 30, and millennials are almost certainly going to be the largest voting group for the democrats from this election on. edit: Something like this (even TX flipping is still a win, just narrower) + Show Spoiler + | ||
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Fleetfeet
Canada2723 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:21 m4ini wrote: This. It's not democrat views or republican views that are the problem - it's the entire shitshow that is the two party system. There's more than two political views. Neither republicans nor democrats can and/or should cater to everyone leaning slightly liberal/conservative despite of the actual political views. It's stupid to even suggest so. Turn the DNC progressive, i'd bet money on it, you lose considerably more votes than you gain from catering to progressives now. Then what? The big question to ask is "Do you (the american voter) feel well-represented by your vote?" and see what the answer comes back as. I -feel like- a majority of the US population's answer is "Not really, but better this one than the other" which makes me believe a multi-party system would better represent the peoples' interests. However, I don't know how the US population would answer and am consistently baffled by the choices they make, so maybe people do feel well represented and are happy with the current system. I'd be curious what a poll in that vein would come back as. | ||
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Diavlo
Belgium2915 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:22 pmh wrote: It looks kinda tricky still. I dont see how biden can make up 400k votes in PA with about 1 million votes left to count. He would have to win 70% of that and he is slightly below 70% in the most democratic leaning country. Biden doesnt need PA but there is also Nevada with only 8k votes difference. If Nevada flips and everything elses goes the way it has been trending thus far trump would still win. Biden numbers are improving with every batch. If the absentee ballots remain in his favor at the same rate (which right now is between 75 and 80%) He will catch up with Trump when 10% of the votes are left to count. There is à Nate cohn article on the NYT explaining thé trend and the most likely outcome. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
I went to bed yesterday after it became clear that florida would not go to the democrats lol. That would have meant an early win for biden which was what i was more or less counting on. There isnt much happening right now but it seems like tonight could be when the decission falls though for all you know you could waste another night in which nothing will be decided. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Also GA is apparently in play. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:29 Fleetfeet wrote: The big question to ask is "Do you (the american voter) feel well-represented by your vote?" and see what the answer comes back as. I -feel like- a majority of the US population's answer is "Not really, but better this one than the other" which makes me believe a multi-party system would better represent the peoples' interests. However, I don't know how the US population would answer and am consistently baffled by the choices they make, so maybe people do feel well represented and are happy with the current system. I'd be curious what a poll in that vein would come back as. Well as someone who grew up in a multi-party system, and now lives in a two party system, i know my answer. | ||
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Shingi11
290 Posts
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Slydie
1936 Posts
On November 05 2020 05:17 Starlightsun wrote: I think ranked voting and having more parties than two would deal a big blow to the bullshit gridlock we have. Imagine if we had more choices than d and r. You can have all the parties you want, but other than the house, it won't matter unless you radically change the fptp system. Unfortunately, the constitution is so sacred changes seem impossible. Also, as seen in Spain, having more parties is so different it needs to be learned. Gridlocks which are unable to even form a government is pretty common, and giving huge concessions to small special interest parties is just a part of the game. But in the perfect world, what about: The US social democrats The US Green Party The Democrats The Soil is our Soul The US christians unified Libertarians The Republicans The US patriot party | ||
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