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On April 01 2020 04:18 Emnjay808 wrote:
I have a creeping suspicion that the lockdown in Hawaii won’t end at the 30th of April. Everyone has the “stay home so we can get this over with” mentality. I hope they can keep that energy if/when our governor announces a lockdown extension. It could honestly go till August just to guarantee that we will be prepared for an outbreak.
I find that highly unlikely. Hawaii has 204 confirmed cases, so a 5 week lockdown should me more than enough to completely stop the first wave of infections. I doubt any country in the world can survive a 5 months lockdown, neither mentally nor economically.
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Don't forget, everyone you guys know who said Corona is "overblown". Shame them, remind them they were wrong.
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On April 01 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Don't forget, everyone you guys know who said Corona is "overblown". Shame them, remind them they were wrong.
I mean that's a terrific sliding scale of when and how. The World Health Organization was saying that in January. De Blasio as late as March. Northam even later. And some dumb college kids might've not taken it seriously and think they have nothing to lose.
I also think this world has enough shaming in it, no?
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On April 01 2020 04:18 Emnjay808 wrote:
I have a creeping suspicion that the lockdown in Hawaii won’t end at the 30th of April. Everyone has the “stay home so we can get this over with” mentality. I hope they can keep that energy if/when our governor announces a lockdown extension. It could honestly go till August just to guarantee that we will be prepared for an outbreak.
"Stay home so we can get this over with" is unlikely to work out anywhere and I doubt that any government is planning with such a scenario. For this to work, it would require a) extremely strict measures (akin to Wuhan) to completely eliminate any community spread and b) severe restrictions on travel in and out of the territory in question to prevent a new wave of local infections. My personal guess for a next step out of the lockdowns imposed around the world is measure(s) that restrict the spread of of the virus while still leaving room for a certain degree of movement freedom. A possiblity I can fathom is for example mandatory masks when going out (like in South Korea), which is currently impossible due to severe shortages in such masks. Additionally, (or alongside) quick antibody tests could allow free movement to people who have already fought of an infection with the virus while restrictions on yet uninfected groups are left in place (the obvisous requirement is widespread availability of such tests). Other possible measures are widespread, preventive quick tests to see if somebody is currently infected and then isolating infected people (this measure alone seems extremely unlikely given the extreme amount of test kits required to screen nearly the entire population on say a weekly basis). Previous methods can and probably will be paired with other minor restrictions - e.g. limiting the number of people allowed in shops/offices/restaurants/etc; hygiene requirements for businesses open to the public (masks, distancing, desinfections). Logging people's movement via smartphones/cameras to quickly discover contacts of confirmed infected cases is another possible supplementary tool.
All of the considerations above are based on the assumptions that
- spread elimination is impossible (due to a) and b))
- preventing the health care system from being overwhelmed remains a priority
- the preliminary estimates on case severity distribution (80% mild and asymptomatic cases) is accurate
- seasonal changes do not suddenly wipe out the virus
Europe and continental America will most likely have to live with the virus for another year at least. If no vaccines or treatments become available and if mild cases do not constitute significantly more than 80%, measures to restrict the speed of new infections may be neccessary for quite a bit longer than a year. However, given Hawaii's remote location and fairly small population it may be possible to eliminate the virus locally and impose strict travel regulations to prevent imported cases.
On April 01 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Don't forget, everyone you guys know who said Corona is "overblown". Shame them, remind them they were wrong.
Today, I met two people who still consider Corona "overblown"... Looking at worldometer, they should be changing their position no later than a week from now...
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On April 01 2020 07:29 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Don't forget, everyone you guys know who said Corona is "overblown". Shame them, remind them they were wrong. I mean that's a terrific sliding scale of when and how. The World Health Organization was saying that in January. De Blasio as late as March. Northam even later. And some dumb college kids might've not taken it seriously and think they have nothing to lose. I also think this world has enough shaming in it, no?
Anyone who said if wasn't a huge deal during February is a complete moron. We had all the necessary data.
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On April 01 2020 07:46 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 07:29 Danglars wrote:On April 01 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Don't forget, everyone you guys know who said Corona is "overblown". Shame them, remind them they were wrong. I mean that's a terrific sliding scale of when and how. The World Health Organization was saying that in January. De Blasio as late as March. Northam even later. And some dumb college kids might've not taken it seriously and think they have nothing to lose. I also think this world has enough shaming in it, no? Anyone who said if wasn't a huge deal during February is a complete moron. We had all the necessary data.
This is gonna sound like a defense of morons but here goes. I expect to listen to dozens of people so excited that they're getting their tax return, free money from the government, to spend. They're mad when it's lower than normal, and that's when they tell me it's the government stealing morer of their money.
Tell your average person that it kills at some 2% rate, and just (***) the elderly and immunocompromised. They'll say what a pussy disease. No word of exponential growth and conditional mortality rate when all hospital beds are filled. And I will say shaming these people for their ignorance is not gonna reap you anything worthwhile.
The ones that can learn will learn over time when people they know are affected and 20 billion times of the "flattening the curve" graphic, and news shows or Trump broadcasts. I don't put much faith in any beneficial effects of shaming done now. It's just gonna make people resentful. It won't change minds. People already regard them with distaste. Not that I haven't been tempted myself on subjects like people trusting China's numbers, or the WHO now or then, or supporting the non-broadcast of presidential coronavirus updates...
User was warned for this post.
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Northern Ireland27464 Posts
On April 01 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Don't forget, everyone you guys know who said Corona is "overblown". Shame them, remind them they were wrong.
Hell even i was wrong for once, admittedly I did adjust that position when more information came in.
I was skeptical that any Western country would come close to emulating Wuhan levels of lockdown too, thought that money would keep things open but was (thankfully) wrong on that one.
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Hawaii has third highest testing rate per capita in the US.. pleasantly surprised by that, we're usually behind in everything. Hospitalization rate is ~10/200 confirmed cases.
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On April 01 2020 11:13 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Don't forget, everyone you guys know who said Corona is "overblown". Shame them, remind them they were wrong. Hell even i was wrong for once, admittedly I did adjust that position when more information came in. I was skeptical that any Western country would come close to emulating Wuhan levels of lockdown too, thought that money would keep things open but was (thankfully) wrong on that one.
I started worrying about this almost immediately and told my wife to buy extra stuff when she's shopping in Januray and insisted on it throughout February. She laughed at me then, she's not laughing now.
Also, businesses are adjusting. The company I'm working for in Germany is implementing the reduced journey policy for the next 3 months. They're not working on fridays and get 20% salary cut (of which 60% will be covered by the government so it's not that bad). It was a decision between this and firing a bunch of people. I like how they approach it, knowing we're all in this together and we're all taking a hit so we can get through it together.
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Always worth testing, but i can see a bunch of additional possible reasons for what you describe.
The Berlin/Brandenburg situation is easily explained by Brandenburg being rural, while Berlin is a large city with lots of international travel. Berlin will get the disease quicker, and it will spread more because people simply interact with a lot more people on a daily basis.
I think the media is a bit too quick to jump onto anything that sounds as if something might possibly be a cure.
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BCG vaccine was compulsory in France until 2007, so all adults have it. I can't see an impact when you look at our numbers. Our deaths are underestimated due to only counting hospital deaths, and we don't even test mild cases.
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Czech Republic12134 Posts
On April 01 2020 19:07 Nouar wrote:BCG vaccine was compulsory in France until 2007, so all adults have it. I can't see an impact when you look at our numbers. Our deaths are underestimated due to only counting hospital deaths, and we don't even test mild cases.
Is re-inoculation compulsory for adults? It doesn't work forever, or does it? I have to inoculate against tetanus every 10 years so I expect this to be similar.
(I believe anti-tbc vaccine is still mandatory in Cze for kids, mine is over 15 years old so I expect it to not work properly)
Edit> I honestly have no idea, so this is more of a question, because if the vaccine fade away and re-inocculation isn't compulsory then, sadly, it has no effect on adults in France, especially old ones 
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Holy shit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
New Jersey and Michigan are following New York to an even greater extreme now that their data is available.
NJ has a 42.3% positive rate of 52.6k tests, Michigan has a 35.3%.
What's terrifying is New York's positive rate has skyrocketed from 30% earlier this month to 37.9% despite increased testing. They're essentially just confirming cases which is good, but assuming reasonable test criteria, it's an incredible amount of positives, and I don't think they're catching up to community spread cases at all.
For perspective, car crashes were ~40k/year dead in USA. Heart disease is ~640k
Coronavirus is on pace to fit in the middle of that at this rate in the states.
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These next few weeks are gonna be scary
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On April 02 2020 03:30 Emnjay808 wrote:
These next few weeks are gonna be scary
The white house modeling for the US basically forecasting weeks of daily 9/11esque bodycounts is pretty unsettling for me personally.
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Glad I bought a chest freezer. Probably gonna not even leave the house for over a month lol
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EDIT: This was a very foolish post.
Not only did my sentiment not belong in this thread, I didn't even really represent my own feelings. I wanted to make a point and wholly missed the mark, and for that I apologize. Just going to edit this 6 weeks later, will most likely not be noticed, as there is no point to derail the thread again with my thoughts.
My bad; I've felt quite bad about this. /EDIT
User was temp banned for this post.
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EPT
