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I would much prefer governments to focus on informing rather than enforcing. For a liberal mind like me, it makes an enormous difference to do something because I choose to rather than fearing punishment. Limiting the spread is a lot easier than we think, and the very basics are the most effective. What I have always been interested in has been the real-life outbreaks and what caused them, while largely disregarding computersimulations, theorycrafts and lab experiments.
I also think the burden of proof should be switched. Instead of proving that fully vaccinated and previously infected people can't pass the virus on, why not assume they will never or extremely rarely infect others first, as that is the most likely? A friend of mine had to do a TRIPLE quarentine after cathing the virus, as he had to do one for his family members after recovering himself.
I have started to theorycraft what would happen if we did threated this virus as a normal flu.
Napkinmath warning:
If the Swine flu is a fair comparison, 11-21% of the worlds population got it, which means between 700 million and 1,6 billion now. We are now up to 126 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 even with all the measures, but the total number influding undetected cases might be at least the double of that number.
A lot of people would obviously die, but if it would somehow be possible to sheild the most vulnerable and bring the deathrate down close to the one of Singapore (30 deaths per 60k confirmed cases), would it have been a viable option just let the virus lose among younger people get this over with quickly and avoid the recession and other disasterous consequences?
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-singapore-explainer-idUSKBN2680TF
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On March 26 2021 19:32 Slydie wrote:
I have started to theorycraft what would happen if we did threated this virus as a normal flu.
Napkinmath warning:
If the Swine flu is a fair comparison, 11-21% of the worlds population got it, which means between 700 million and 1,6 billion now. We are now up to 126 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 even with all the measures, but the total number influding undetected cases might be at least the double of that number.
I think the number of infected is at least triple of what we know. The whole Asian sector around China doesn't give any numbers, then there is Russia. Add to that countries like Brazil which wasn't really forthcoming with numbers and the whole African continent we know very little about
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We've already been over this numerous times. The idea of treating it like seasonal flu is asinine.
Let's look at the UK as an example. The government initially tried to avoid lockdowns and adopted the strategy of shielding the vulnerable. Guess what, it didn't fucking work. They had to impose several lockdowns.
The IFR for this virus is roughly 1% in developed countries. The herd immunity threshold is about 70% (with the new variant it's actually higher). 70% x 1% x 67M population gives about 0.5M deaths if you let the epidemic run its course. That is assuming you can keep the spread under control, which is obviously nonsense. Realistically, you will quickly reach hospital capacity and most people who need help will not get it. If the system collapses, you can expect 2-3M COVID deaths + a lot of collateral deaths.
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On March 26 2021 20:13 maybenexttime wrote:
We've already been over this numerous times. The idea of treating it like seasonal flu is asinine.
Let's look at the UK as an example. The government initially tried to avoid lockdowns and adopted the strategy of shielding the vulnerable. Guess what, it didn't fucking work. They had to impose several lockdowns.
The IFR for this virus is roughly 1% in developed countries. The herd immunity threshold is about 70% (with the new variant it's actually higher). 70% x 1% x 67M population gives about 0.5M deaths if you let the epidemic run its course. That is assuming you can keep the spread under control, which is obviously nonsense. Realistically, you will quickly reach hospital capacity and most people who need help will not get it. If the system collapses, you can expect 2-3M COVID deaths + a lot of collateral deaths.
Especially with the newer strains, if you were to infect everyone in a short period of time, I think you'd get closer to the 10% mark. There's a lot more hospitalizations even among younger, healthier demographics.
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Got my first vaccine dose this morning. Went out of the way to get Pfizer, since I'd be doing myself a disservice if I settled for any of the inferior vaccines being offered. Qualified under an "essential worker" classification; I expect that by the time I get a second dose, vaccinations will start opening up to the general public.
Overall, not the most pleasant vaccine I've ever taken. Causes a pretty strong headache and numbness, and I hear the second dose is more severe on side effects. Oh well, at least it provides reasonable protection from infection rather than 62%.
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On March 27 2021 05:06 LegalLord wrote:
Got my first vaccine dose this morning. Went out of the way to get Pfizer, since I'd be doing myself a disservice if I settled for any of the inferior vaccines being offered. Qualified under an "essential worker" classification; I expect that by the time I get a second dose, vaccinations will start opening up to the general public.
Overall, not the most pleasant vaccine I've ever taken. Causes a pretty strong headache and numbness, and I hear the second dose is more severe on side effects. Oh well, at least it provides reasonable protection from infection rather than 62%.
I've also got 1st dose of this vaccine. Apart from very insignificant pain in arm exactly near where vaccine was taken, I have no complaints. I've heard that some of side-effects are felt after 2nd dose. For instance, my GP says she was feeling very tired for up to 24 hours. She says some side-effects (not hers) are face paralysis for up to 24 hours (rare probably), fever, muscleache, etc. After all, these are all neglibile when compared to what COVID does to some people. Also, as Russian, don't you have faith in Sputnik? 
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On March 27 2021 19:51 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2021 05:06 LegalLord wrote:
Got my first vaccine dose this morning. Went out of the way to get Pfizer, since I'd be doing myself a disservice if I settled for any of the inferior vaccines being offered. Qualified under an "essential worker" classification; I expect that by the time I get a second dose, vaccinations will start opening up to the general public.
Overall, not the most pleasant vaccine I've ever taken. Causes a pretty strong headache and numbness, and I hear the second dose is more severe on side effects. Oh well, at least it provides reasonable protection from infection rather than 62%. I've also got 1st dose of this vaccine. Apart from very insignificant pain in arm exactly near where vaccine was taken, I have no complaints. I've heard that some of side-effects are felt after 2nd dose. For instance, my GP says she was feeling very tired for up to 24 hours. She says some side-effects (not hers) are face paralysis for up to 24 hours (rare probably), fever, muscleache, etc. After all, these are all neglibile when compared to what COVID does to some people. Also, as Russian, don't you have faith in Sputnik?
Yeah, side effects can vary immensely. I had Pfizer and my first dose gave me no side effects except for a little nausea for one day, and my second dose gave me zero side effects at all! I guess I'm on the luckier side of the spectrum, with regard to symptoms. Congrats to both of you for getting dosed 
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On March 27 2021 20:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2021 19:51 SC-Shield wrote:On March 27 2021 05:06 LegalLord wrote:
Got my first vaccine dose this morning. Went out of the way to get Pfizer, since I'd be doing myself a disservice if I settled for any of the inferior vaccines being offered. Qualified under an "essential worker" classification; I expect that by the time I get a second dose, vaccinations will start opening up to the general public.
Overall, not the most pleasant vaccine I've ever taken. Causes a pretty strong headache and numbness, and I hear the second dose is more severe on side effects. Oh well, at least it provides reasonable protection from infection rather than 62%. I've also got 1st dose of this vaccine. Apart from very insignificant pain in arm exactly near where vaccine was taken, I have no complaints. I've heard that some of side-effects are felt after 2nd dose. For instance, my GP says she was feeling very tired for up to 24 hours. She says some side-effects (not hers) are face paralysis for up to 24 hours (rare probably), fever, muscleache, etc. After all, these are all neglibile when compared to what COVID does to some people. Also, as Russian, don't you have faith in Sputnik? Yeah, side effects can vary immensely. I had Pfizer and my first dose gave me no side effects except for a little nausea for one day, and my second dose gave me zero side effects at all! I guess I'm on the luckier side of the spectrum, with regard to symptoms. Congrats to both of you for getting dosed
Or you're in the 5% and didn't develop an immune response.  Just kidding, hope it worked. :-)
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On March 27 2021 19:51 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2021 05:06 LegalLord wrote:
Got my first vaccine dose this morning. Went out of the way to get Pfizer, since I'd be doing myself a disservice if I settled for any of the inferior vaccines being offered. Qualified under an "essential worker" classification; I expect that by the time I get a second dose, vaccinations will start opening up to the general public.
Overall, not the most pleasant vaccine I've ever taken. Causes a pretty strong headache and numbness, and I hear the second dose is more severe on side effects. Oh well, at least it provides reasonable protection from infection rather than 62%. I've also got 1st dose of this vaccine. Apart from very insignificant pain in arm exactly near where vaccine was taken, I have no complaints. I've heard that some of side-effects are felt after 2nd dose. For instance, my GP says she was feeling very tired for up to 24 hours. She says some side-effects (not hers) are face paralysis for up to 24 hours (rare probably), fever, muscleache, etc. After all, these are all neglibile when compared to what COVID does to some people. Also, as Russian, don't you have faith in Sputnik?
I’d take Sputnik if it were offered... obviously not an option in the US. Here, it’s Pfizer and a bunch of vaccines worse than Pfizer.
Feeling a lot better this morning and it’s down to just pain at the injection point. Not particularly looking forward to a repeat of these same side effects in three weeks, but at least it’s pretty good evidence that the vaccine worked.
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Would you take Sputnik over j&j?
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Why would you take a vaccine that does not have approval outside of the nation it was developed by instead of the vaccine that has been approved by a nation outside of it?
Or more generous what information on Sputnik gives you preference of Sputnik over j&j.
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On March 28 2021 00:09 Sermokala wrote:
Why would you take a vaccine that does not have approval outside of the nation it was developed by instead of the vaccine that has been approved by a nation outside of it?
Or more generous what information on Sputnik gives you preference of Sputnik over j&j.
Asking LL about the quality or wisdom of something Russian may result in confusion.
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On March 28 2021 00:09 Sermokala wrote:
Why would you take a vaccine that does not have approval outside of the nation it was developed by instead of the vaccine that has been approved by a nation outside of it?
Or more generous what information on Sputnik gives you preference of Sputnik over j&j.
Well that's a pretty disingenuous question. I live in the US, so I take the best vaccine available in the US. Sputnik has approval in a lot of countries, including Russia and dozens of others, but the US isn't one of those countries, so it's not an option I have. My options are Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J based on geography, and Pfizer is the clear winner there.
I'd prefer Sputnik over J&J because the data shows it's a better vaccine. What's confusing about that? 92% is a lot better than 68% or whatever J&J claims within their confusing way of reporting it. Both are better than AstraZeneca at least.
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On March 28 2021 00:32 JimmiC wrote:
I learned something new today, I had no idea there was vaccine snobs. I'll happily take whatever approved one they offer me and ASAP hoping others do the same and we can get to herd immunity ASAP. I'm sick of this.
I can kind of see the opposing viewpoint - the "snob" viewpoint - if the currently-accessible vaccine is significantly less effective, and if waiting for a few weeks more would lead to access to the "better" vaccine options. Of course, it totally depends on the location, distribution, available vaccines, etc. If, for example, I was vaccinated with a 70%-effective option today, but could have received a 90%-effective option in a month, getting the 70%-effective option would end up being redundant, a waste of time, and could even force me to the back of the line for the 90%-effective option (if people who are still unvaccinated get priority over me, since I at least have some sort of vaccination, even if it's not the ideal one).
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On March 28 2021 00:32 JimmiC wrote:
I learned something new today, I had no idea there was vaccine snobs. I'll happily take whatever approved one they offer me and ASAP hoping others do the same and we can get to herd immunity ASAP. I'm sick of this.
I've been just fine for over a year and I have no intention of changing my habits. I see no incentive to settle for 65% when 95% is achievable. JnJ is better for poor countries where its harder for people to make 2 long trips.
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On an unrelated note, I have to say that I'm disappointed that most vaccination clinics have you schedule an appointment without telling you ahead of time which you're actually getting - play the vaccine lottery and hope that the one you get is a good one! Withholding key information from patients out of some misplaced notion of serving the public good is disingenuous as fuck.
I have to give credit to the clinic I went to that they were a shining exception to this rule - they made it very clear which vaccination site was Pfizer, which was Moderna, and which was J&J. The latter were easier to get, of course, but driving the distance to get Pfizer is worth it.
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EPT
