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I understand the reasoning, even though I personally don't agree with it. Some people reject certain medicine that is considered safe by the scientific community - unless they have to take it for their health. The same reasoning is true for vaccines.
There's a problem with this reasoning: each day that you're out among other people, you have a small risk of getting infected with the virus. Over time that risk accumulates, and at an infinite point, infection would become a certainty. This means that you're not actually safer from health consequences by avoiding vaccination, even if there are unknowns about the vaccines (which there obviously are, as it's not yet FDA approved).
The other problem is that we still don't know all the health issues that come with covid-19. From what I know, they're much more serious than any of the side effects from the vaccines, and some of the effects are permanent. No permanent effects from the vaccines (other than protection against covid-19) are known.
So in total, the chance of getting unlucky and experiencing serious harm to your health is almost certainly greater if you remain unvaccinated than after you got vaccinated.
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While i agree with your general sentiment that vaccination is a much better decision risk-wise than not getting vaccinated (which is also why i am in queue to be vaccinated once it becomes possible for me), i have to disagree on your math.
If you have infinite amounts of very small probabilities, these do not have to sum up to 100%. Depending on how large those very small probabilities are, and how they evolve, they could sum up to basically anything. Dealing with infinite sums has some problems that you can only avoid by using mathematical rigor.
And i do not think that the eventual probability of contracting covid is 100%. I am very certain that after this pandemic is done, some unvaccinated people will have never had the disease. Once again, this does not mean that not getting vaccinated is a good idea. It is not. Just that your maths isn't exact enough.
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I just got the AZ vaccine today. Everyone at work took it 0 hesitation but I work in healthcare so...
Waiting for the ”right” vaccine seems like waiting for the best chance to get into the stockmarket. Almost impossible to time and data shows your basically always better of just getting in earlier anyway if you do it in a sensible way. Odds are everyone will have to take a second type anyway due to mutation and maybe yearly after that but production will be scaled up by then.
Edit: anyone else have a feeling that as soon as this is over EU mandates either all pharma must be produced in the union or at least no imports from UK/US/India?
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Zurich15366 Posts
It's so silly, get the AZ when you can. No reason you can't top it up with an mRNA shot later this year if you want extra protection.
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The problem with the argument that data shows the vaccines are safer than contracting COVID is that everyone thinks they are the outlier. It's like the arguments "You're more likely to shoot a family member than an intruder by having a gun in your home" or "you're more likely to get in a car accident if you're driving than if an AI is driving." Also true statements, but everyone thinks they are James Bond or Michael Andretti and they are the exception.
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On March 16 2021 05:13 zatic wrote:
It's so silly, get the AZ when you can. No reason you can't top it up with an mRNA shot later this year if you want extra protection.
Is this true? I don't know this to be true. But if it is true, yeah, jab me with whatever.
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On March 16 2021 05:17 BlackJack wrote:
The problem with the argument that data shows the vaccines are safer than contracting COVID is that everyone thinks they are the outlier. It's like the arguments "You're more likely to shoot a family member than an intruder by having a gun in your home" or "you're more likely to get in a car accident if you're driving than if an AI is driving." Also true statements, but everyone thinks they are James Bond or Michael Andretti and they are the exception.
Another problem is attribution. If you walk past a group of people striking baseball through the area, a good decision would be to walk faster, because that reduces the chance of getting hit. However, if you get hit when you walk faster, it is your fault. If you walk normally, it doesn't feel like it is your fault, because you didn't do anything specific.
Similarly, if you get vaccinated and something bad happens because of that, it feels as if that is your fault. If you don't get vaccinated and get the disease, it is just tough luck, but at least you didn't cause this.
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On March 16 2021 05:51 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2021 05:17 BlackJack wrote:
The problem with the argument that data shows the vaccines are safer than contracting COVID is that everyone thinks they are the outlier. It's like the arguments "You're more likely to shoot a family member than an intruder by having a gun in your home" or "you're more likely to get in a car accident if you're driving than if an AI is driving." Also true statements, but everyone thinks they are James Bond or Michael Andretti and they are the exception. Another problem is attribution. If you walk past a group of people striking baseball through the area, a good decision would be to walk faster, because that reduces the chance of getting hit. However, if you get hit when you walk faster, it is your fault. If you walk normally, it doesn't feel like it is your fault, because you didn't do anything specific. Similarly, if you get vaccinated and something bad happens because of that, it feels as if that is your fault. If you don't get vaccinated and get the disease, it is just tough luck, but at least you didn't cause this.
The only thing I'd add to this is that for covid, you can do quite a bit to lower your odds. It's not like you're rolling dice whether you get covid or not. There are many ways to avoid it, for most people.
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Norway28866 Posts
Tbh if you gave me two options and option a is I get covid 100% but I can socialize as I want and option b is I can't visit anyone or have any visitors for more than a year but I have a 0% chance of getting it, I'm going with option a. I'm happy that it's working out for you but there really are a lot of people for whom the type of social distancing you described in your earlier post will be extremely detrimental to their well being - I'm not even particularly extrovert.
(There's a big difference between attending big gatherings and concerts vs me and one other friend going to another friend's place, or whatever.)
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On March 16 2021 06:23 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Tbh if you gave me two options and option a is I get covid 100% but I can socialize as I want and option b is I can't visit anyone or have any visitors for more than a year but I have a 0% chance of getting it, I'm going with option a. I'm happy that it's working out for you but there really are a lot of people for whom the type of social distancing you described in your earlier post will be extremely detrimental to their well being - I'm not even particularly extrovert.
(There's a big difference between attending big gatherings and concerts vs me and one other friend going to another friend's place, or whatever.)
Yeah TBH my situation has been a lot easier because I live with my wife. Total isolation would be a lot more brutal. And when the weather allowed for it, we would still go on hikes with friends wearing masks etc
Another advantage we had is that since we have both had long careers in laboratory environments, I could probably sleep with a mask on. We both have absolutely zero issue wearing masks all the time.
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On March 16 2021 06:23 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Tbh if you gave me two options and option a is I get covid 100% but I can socialize as I want and option b is I can't visit anyone or have any visitors for more than a year but I have a 0% chance of getting it, I'm going with option a. I'm happy that it's working out for you but there really are a lot of people for whom the type of social distancing you described in your earlier post will be extremely detrimental to their well being - I'm not even particularly extrovert.
(There's a big difference between attending big gatherings and concerts vs me and one other friend going to another friend's place, or whatever.)
I wouldn't. Not because i particularly care about my own well being, but because i dont want to infect those i love. If my friends or family got infected due to my carelessness, i'd feel terrible. Worse yet, if they died or end up suffering extended complications, i dont think id be able to forgive myself.
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TBH I like the official stop. Better be upfront with it. Imagine they wouldn't have and media somehow got wind of the blod clots? Now THAT would have been a real shitshow.
All they need to do now is tell everyone it's safe, we checked everyone/ everything, don't worry.
To the vaccination vs disease:
I can understand the argumentation. Obviously the risk of getting the disease is waaaaaay higher than any lasting side effects from vaccination but one is a conscious decicision and the other is tough luck.
Since my turn is in about half a year or something I don't really think or care about which vaccine I want/ might get
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On March 16 2021 05:50 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2021 05:13 zatic wrote:
It's so silly, get the AZ when you can. No reason you can't top it up with an mRNA shot later this year if you want extra protection. Is this true? I don't know this to be true. But if it is true, yeah, jab me with whatever.
I even read in local media a couple of days ago that there is a very decent chance that we will have to get another shot no matter what in like a year (after we had our first round) if we want/need to have a high immunization levels. so... while definitely preferable to get one of the "better" western vaccines out there if you can, it's not a done and done job.
and AZ has a good efficacy. the blood clot thing has to be monitored closely and that is already the case, but we have to keep things in perspective.
try reading _any_ information leaflet of the medication you use daily ... and then tell me you feel safer afterwards. I dare you lol.
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On March 16 2021 19:52 Doublemint wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2021 05:50 Mohdoo wrote:On March 16 2021 05:13 zatic wrote:
It's so silly, get the AZ when you can. No reason you can't top it up with an mRNA shot later this year if you want extra protection. Is this true? I don't know this to be true. But if it is true, yeah, jab me with whatever. I even read in local media a couple of days ago that there is a very decent chance that we will have to get another shot no matter what in like a year (after we had our first round) if we want/need to have a high immunization levels. so... while definitely preferable to get one of the "better" western vaccines out there if you can, it's not a done and done job. and AZ has a good efficacy. the blood clot thing has to be monitored closely and that is already the case, but we have to keep things in perspective. try reading _any_ information leaflet of the medication you use daily ... and then tell me you feel safer afterwards. I dare you lol.
In Germany they compared the side effects from anti baby pill. Boy oh boy
Doesn't help AZ but still.
My GF had her shot with AZ and after reading about the blood clots I somewhat unconsciously monitored her super closely and asked her about headaches 10 times a day. When it's on your mind it's hard to get rid of this kind of thinking
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On March 17 2021 17:06 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2021 19:52 Doublemint wrote:On March 16 2021 05:50 Mohdoo wrote:On March 16 2021 05:13 zatic wrote:
It's so silly, get the AZ when you can. No reason you can't top it up with an mRNA shot later this year if you want extra protection. Is this true? I don't know this to be true. But if it is true, yeah, jab me with whatever. I even read in local media a couple of days ago that there is a very decent chance that we will have to get another shot no matter what in like a year (after we had our first round) if we want/need to have a high immunization levels. so... while definitely preferable to get one of the "better" western vaccines out there if you can, it's not a done and done job. and AZ has a good efficacy. the blood clot thing has to be monitored closely and that is already the case, but we have to keep things in perspective. try reading _any_ information leaflet of the medication you use daily ... and then tell me you feel safer afterwards. I dare you lol. In Germany they compared the side effects from anti baby pill. Boy oh boy Doesn't help AZ but still. My GF had her shot with AZ and after reading about the blood clots I somewhat unconsciously monitored her super closely and asked her about headaches 10 times a day. When it's on your mind it's hard to get rid of this kind of thinking
yeah the bad feeling persists no matter what... my mom who is in health care got her shot very early at the end of Jan.? and I remember going through similar stuff back then. in her 60s, slightly overweight... but it turned out perfectly fine. apart from her this time around complaining about too many calls xD
back then it was dumb luck she got Pfizer as it was the one available, and it was not seen as "the best" yet. fear of complications was pretty high (and irrationally so) as well. stay strong and keep watch, and don't get crazy. you need strength for when she gets the second shot 
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On March 17 2021 17:06 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2021 19:52 Doublemint wrote:On March 16 2021 05:50 Mohdoo wrote:On March 16 2021 05:13 zatic wrote:
It's so silly, get the AZ when you can. No reason you can't top it up with an mRNA shot later this year if you want extra protection. Is this true? I don't know this to be true. But if it is true, yeah, jab me with whatever. I even read in local media a couple of days ago that there is a very decent chance that we will have to get another shot no matter what in like a year (after we had our first round) if we want/need to have a high immunization levels. so... while definitely preferable to get one of the "better" western vaccines out there if you can, it's not a done and done job. and AZ has a good efficacy. the blood clot thing has to be monitored closely and that is already the case, but we have to keep things in perspective. try reading _any_ information leaflet of the medication you use daily ... and then tell me you feel safer afterwards. I dare you lol. In Germany they compared the side effects from anti baby pill. Boy oh boy Doesn't help AZ but still. My GF had her shot with AZ and after reading about the blood clots I somewhat unconsciously monitored her super closely and asked her about headaches 10 times a day. When it's on your mind it's hard to get rid of this kind of thinking
For short term use, an aspirin might alleviate some of the concern(I'm not sure on the blood clot timeline, and I'm not a doctor).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2
So I was bored, and decided to look at the wiki article on variants(and associated links). It's actually quite an interesting read with a lot of references. It does a very good job of explaining why countries have been struggling hard to control it. It also notes how UK/SA/BR strain have independently evolved some beneficial mutations. We're basically seeing Plague.Incs increased infectivity, vaccine resistance, and severity increase through Covid.
UK/B.1.1.7 - ~50-75% more infectious, ~60% higher chance of hospitalization, and associated increased chance of death of around 60%. One single change in the Genome on the spike protein does all of that(basically makes it bind more readily, so you're more likely to be infected, and probably as a result of it binding more readily, results in a more severe infection on average)
SA/501.V2 - Has the UK mutation in the spike protein, and a host of other ones as well, including a few that help with antibody avoidance. This one is scary because it spreads just as fast as UK, but can reinfect minor cases of Covid because they don't have an immune response that recognizes it. Not as widespread yet since travel from SA is much more limited than UK, but I'd expect this to start really dominating in the summer in countries without good vaccines. Probably the scariest quotes below, especially about AZ which is being pretty widely deployed at the moment.
The study found that in a sample size of 2,000 the AZD1222 vaccine afforded only "minimal protection" in all but the most severe cases of COVID-19
On 17 February 2021, Pfizer announced neutralization activity was reduced by two-thirds for the 501.V2 variant, while stating no claims about the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing illness for this variant could yet be made
I would guess that 2/3 is a whole lot more than what AZ was doing, so where possible, don't get AZ, or else get AZ and then get a MRNA booster of some sort, because AZ is minimally better than saline for the more dangerous variants.
Brazil/P.1 - 17 spike protein changes, all the scary mutations of above, and more. Definitely the scariest variant. ~80% more infections, 25-61% chance of evading antibodies from previous Covid infections, and 10-80% more lethal. Also not super widespread yet, but I see everybody getting another Covid booster down the line specifically targeting this strain. No official data on vaccine effectiveness atm, but if Pfizer/Moderna are having serious issues, I can't see other vaccines doing any better.
P.1 infections can produce nearly 10 times more viral load than in other COVID-19-infected persons involving B.1.1.28 and B.1.195 lineages. The variant also showed 2.2 times higher transmissibility with the same ability to infect both adults (18–59 years old) and older persons (60 years old and higher), suggesting P.1 lineages are more successful at infecting younger humans with no gender differential.[21]
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On March 17 2021 17:06 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2021 19:52 Doublemint wrote:On March 16 2021 05:50 Mohdoo wrote:On March 16 2021 05:13 zatic wrote:
It's so silly, get the AZ when you can. No reason you can't top it up with an mRNA shot later this year if you want extra protection. Is this true? I don't know this to be true. But if it is true, yeah, jab me with whatever. I even read in local media a couple of days ago that there is a very decent chance that we will have to get another shot no matter what in like a year (after we had our first round) if we want/need to have a high immunization levels. so... while definitely preferable to get one of the "better" western vaccines out there if you can, it's not a done and done job. and AZ has a good efficacy. the blood clot thing has to be monitored closely and that is already the case, but we have to keep things in perspective. try reading _any_ information leaflet of the medication you use daily ... and then tell me you feel safer afterwards. I dare you lol. In Germany they compared the side effects from anti baby pill. Boy oh boy Doesn't help AZ but still. My GF had her shot with AZ and after reading about the blood clots I somewhat unconsciously monitored her super closely and asked her about headaches 10 times a day. When it's on your mind it's hard to get rid of this kind of thinking
Yeah, once people hear about an anomaly or two, they can get paranoid. The only thing I could find about the AZ / blood clot relationship is this:
"In March 2021, a number of countries paused use of the vaccine out of fears it may be implicated in cases of blood clotting observed in vaccine recipients.[29] The European Medicines Agency[30], the MHRA[31] and AstraZeneca[32] have all stated that blood clotting rates were not higher than would be expected naturally. As of 8 March 2021 across the EU and UK there have been 37 blood clotting events out of over 17 million vaccinations.[32]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford–AstraZeneca_COVID-19_vaccine
Is that it, or is there more drama surrounding the AZ vaccine? Because 37 / 17,000,000 = 0.00000218, so if that's the worst thing about the AZ vaccine, then I fully support the AZ vaccine coming to the USA too, if we need more doses. After all, the chance of becoming seriously sick (or dying) from coronavirus is astronomically higher than becoming similarly sick or dying from the vaccines.
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37 instances is the number being reported here as well.
I cannot believe that multiple western governments have overreacted in this way. It gives so much ammunition to the antivaxxers at one of the most critical points in the process, and there is absolutely no basis for it. The world looks to Europe to lead, not to panic like the most poorly-informed facebook karen I've ever seen.
If there is a real problem, we should deal with it, but 37 instances of a possible side-effect from seventeen million doses is not a problem. That is six zeroes. Six.
The population of Australia happens to be about the same as the number of AZ shots that have gone out. Even with the success we've had in controlling the virus, we have still had 30k cases and 1000 deaths. That means we kicked covid's ass and we still ate twenty five times more deaths than there have been blood clot events in the entire rollout.
In countries that didn't kick covid's ass you are looking at a four digit multiple or more. There is no universe where a pause makes sense on this evidence.
I am just flabbergasted. The countries that have done this should hang their heads in shame. The AZ vaccine is going to be the backbone of the response for some astronomical fraction of the world's population. The damage to confidence that this has caused will set the world's battle with the disease back by months. It is absolutely irresponsible.
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The problem here is that any other reaction would also have had the same effect.
Do nothing? "The government hides how dangerous the vaccine is! The vaccine kills people and they still keep on injecting it into people! They clearly are in the pocket of Bill Gates"
Keep injecting and do a study? See above.
The problem is that people are idiots who suck at statistics, and the people want to panic. This was an attempt to deal with this unavoidable fact "See how careful we are, we stop for a while and do better studies"
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Absolutely not. Yes, the people who are already antivaxxers would do that anyway, but I find it extremely hard to believe that more than 10% of the population thinks they are being microchipped by bill gates. There is always a 30-40% fraction above them who are sceptical but can be swayed by good public messaging. This decision instead throws in the towel and hands that fraction to the antivaxxers whole. That is not the same effect at all.
I know that people suck at numbers, but it is hard to overstate how small a number 37 from 17 million is. It is roughly the size ratio between an ant and the entire planet. If you can't convince people of something of that order of magnitude, you are just plain doing it wrong.
Right now, we have remote communities in far northern Australia questioning the safety of the vaccine because Europe, whom we have come to trust as a source of sane governance in the Trump era, has canned it. These communities are poorly connected, in poor health, and very exposed to outbreaks in neighbouring PNG. They're not doing statistics, and they shouldn't need to do statistics to refute a western government's poor advice.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-17/torres-strait-risk-of-covid-coronavirus-virus-spread/13255208
"The message that I would like to get out to everybody that I possibly can is COVID-19 vaccines that we have available in Australia are safe that it is much safer to be vaccinated against COVID-19 than to run the risk of ever getting COVID-19 yourself," she said.
But, Councillor Mosby said some residents had doubts after reports that some European countries had paused rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
"Given the recent reports through the media about the European countries backing out or taking a pause on it, and also the opinions that we are hearing directly from Canberra about [MPs] having divided opinions on this, it has certainly raised alarms and is affecting the confidence of our people wanting to be vaccinated," he said.
For now, Councillor Mosby is urging Torres Strait Islanders to check with Queensland health officials before making up their minds.
This decision has affected the entire world. It is on your governments' heads.
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