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On February 18 2021 11:57 JimmiC wrote:
Going to 0, or close to has lead to the biggest openness and "normal" in society currently. (Outside of travel which is heavily restricted)
When vaccines become more common if they drastically reduce hospitizations and deaths then what you are talking about is more feasible. Anytime it has been tried (which it has a lot in every western democracy) it has led to uncontrolled spread, hospitals stretched to the limit and then the harsh measures you are talking about are implemented because they feel they have no other choice.
Keeping hospitalizations and deaths at acceptable levels is what everyone has been trying and failing with leading to harsher and harsher measures and eventual full lockdowns and curfews.
Afaik, every country which has succeeded in going close to 0 never had a big wave of infections. Once that has happened, it is virtually impossible to achieve, even with moderate opening.
But, there are differences, both previous waves and vaccines do help protecting against the next ones.
There are a lot of countries which did not ever strain their hospitals, but still did very harsh measures FEARING it could happen. If they overreact is an important question.
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Zurich15366 Posts
On February 18 2021 17:30 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2021 11:57 JimmiC wrote:
Going to 0, or close to has lead to the biggest openness and "normal" in society currently. (Outside of travel which is heavily restricted)
When vaccines become more common if they drastically reduce hospitizations and deaths then what you are talking about is more feasible. Anytime it has been tried (which it has a lot in every western democracy) it has led to uncontrolled spread, hospitals stretched to the limit and then the harsh measures you are talking about are implemented because they feel they have no other choice.
Keeping hospitalizations and deaths at acceptable levels is what everyone has been trying and failing with leading to harsher and harsher measures and eventual full lockdowns and curfews. Afaik, every country which has succeeded in going close to 0 never had a big wave of infections. Once that has happened, it is virtually impossible to achieve, even with moderate opening. But, there are differences, both previous waves and vaccines do help protecting against the next ones. There are a lot of countries which did not ever strain their hospitals, but still did very harsh measures FEARING it could happen. If they overreact is an important question.
Germany had all of that - cases close to zero in June/July, never had overstrained health care systems, and is generally known for competent institutions and a compliant public. And they never opened up completely, distancing and mask wearing was mandatory throughout the year. Yet they were hit massively by the second wave in October, surpassing the worst of March by an order of magnitude.
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Removed rant about irresponsible people during a pandemic.
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On February 18 2021 23:30 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2021 17:30 Slydie wrote:On February 18 2021 11:57 JimmiC wrote:
Going to 0, or close to has lead to the biggest openness and "normal" in society currently. (Outside of travel which is heavily restricted)
When vaccines become more common if they drastically reduce hospitizations and deaths then what you are talking about is more feasible. Anytime it has been tried (which it has a lot in every western democracy) it has led to uncontrolled spread, hospitals stretched to the limit and then the harsh measures you are talking about are implemented because they feel they have no other choice.
Keeping hospitalizations and deaths at acceptable levels is what everyone has been trying and failing with leading to harsher and harsher measures and eventual full lockdowns and curfews. Afaik, every country which has succeeded in going close to 0 never had a big wave of infections. Once that has happened, it is virtually impossible to achieve, even with moderate opening. But, there are differences, both previous waves and vaccines do help protecting against the next ones. There are a lot of countries which did not ever strain their hospitals, but still did very harsh measures FEARING it could happen. If they overreact is an important question. Australia would be a county that had massive waves and brought it down close to zero. Can you source which countries never had strains on their healthcare systems but put in harsh measures?
Australia is surrounded by ocean, and shut down their boarders, I don't think that is a fair comparison.
At least Norway, Denmark, all of Asia and New Zealand has had harsh measures at times, but were never close to being overloaded, even Sweden, with the very liberal approach to the first wave, always had spare emergency beds. In countries where there has been strain for certain period (Spain, Italy, Germany), it typically did not happen everywhere at once. Fortunately, strained HC systems seem to be the exception, not the norm.
It is of course a very difficult line to balance, but I wish the governments would be brave enough to clearly state what the goal of their strategy is. They seem to throw around measures and reopening without an overall plan.
I remember back in the day when "flatten the curve" was the motto. Most curved now look more like the rocky mountains than sand dunes...
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A friend just got back to Australia from here.
It's quarantine for 2 weeks upon arrival in a hotel.
Having to travel quite some distance from the arrival airport, it's 2 more weeks at the final destination with family.
Very strict it is. The exact trigger for the second quarantining is unknown to me.
Australia takes the continued eradication of the virus rather serious!
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Did they go through Melbourne?
There shouldn't be two quarantines in normal circumstances. If they did the first one in Melbourne and then went somewhere like WA they might be pinged again for having come from a hotspot, but I would hope we'd have worked out a way to avoid that by now.
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He must have crossed state lines.You really shouldn't have to go through two sets of 2 week quarantine.Four weeks is brutal.
I've avoided all interstate travel since they could lockdown over one case and you'd struggle to get back (to WA) then have to pay for your two weeks hotel quarantine on top.Too much bother.
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On February 20 2021 13:18 Belisarius wrote:
Did they go through Melbourne?
There shouldn't be two quarantines in normal circumstances. If they did the first one in Melbourne and then went somewhere like WA they might be pinged again for having come from a hotspot, but I would hope we'd have worked out a way to avoid that by now.
I was told it was quite a ways home so I suppose it must've been something like being in or passing a relative hotspot?
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You just can't use fighting the pandemic as an excuse justify everything. Every country has overreacted at times, and it HAS to be debated and criticised.
I am completely aware that Denmark was close to getting a very big 3rd wave, and they avoided it by closing down over Christmas. But did they still do too much and use the right criteria? I know the population there is extremely tired now.
If you want to see overreaction, Norway is a good place currently. The number of Covid related deaths hide perfectly well within the expected deaths for lower respiratory infections, and the the number of deaths was LOWER in 2020 than in other recent years.
At this point, predicting the development anfew weeks ahead should not be that difficult, and every country has more or less learned what works. I just wish they were brave enough to state what is acceptable and what is not, and consider well the costs and benefits. Careers, businesses, education, mental health, sports, social and cultural life also have value.
It feels like covid-19 cases and deaths is the only thing that matters now. Tens of thousands of all ages die all the time from all kinds of terrible conditions, but the truth is, as we don't know them and it isn't reported, we don't give a shit. I can't wait for the day this will be considered just one of many illnesses that can kill you.
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On February 23 2021 01:09 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2021 21:30 Slydie wrote:
You just can't use fighting the pandemic as an excuse justify everything. Every country has overreacted at times, and it HAS to be debated and criticised.
I am completely aware that Denmark was close to getting a very big 3rd wave, and they avoided it by closing down over Christmas. But did they still do too much and use the right criteria? I know the population there is extremely tired now.
If you want to see overreaction, Norway is a good place currently. The number of Covid related deaths hide perfectly well within the expected deaths for lower respiratory infections, and the the number of deaths was LOWER in 2020 than in other recent years.
At this point, predicting the development anfew weeks ahead should not be that difficult, and every country has more or less learned what works. I just wish they were brave enough to state what is acceptable and what is not, and consider well the costs and benefits. Careers, businesses, education, mental health, sports, social and cultural life also have value.
It feels like covid-19 cases and deaths is the only thing that matters now. Tens of thousands of all ages die all the time from all kinds of terrible conditions, but the truth is, as we don't know them and it isn't reported, we don't give a shit. I can't wait for the day this will be considered just one of many illnesses that can kill you. Why does this mean that they overreacted and not that they did a good job? What or who did what you would consider a good job? All those things you speak of are being considered at every meeting on these issues. There are not just doctors at them. I can't wait until this illness is considered one of those things that our healthcare systems can deal with without measures. And I hate how many people still think this only impacts the old and only deaths matter. There is currently a bunch of NHL players out months (hopefully not forever because of it), UFC fighters, NBA players, so on. All these young people, in their prime, best possible care and they are being rocked. This is not the flu, it is not close if people went on as normal and acted as if it was just one of the things you could catch it would be absolutely horrendous.
Pretty much. When top level athletes suddenly have heart and lung problems after catching even mild bouts of covid, you can pretty much be sure that the average person without the same level of access and poorer health will also have the same issues, just undiagnosed. The cost isn't just now, it's all the productive years lost from people who aren't the same and the cost of taking care of them down the line.
On a different note, we're now 6 weeks into the Biden presidency, and we can see what competent leadership towards Covid on a federal level has done. Not all of it can be attributed to Biden, as some policies were implemented right as the transition was occuring, and vaccinations undoubtedly have helped push the number down further. I would say he deserves a passing grade on that part at least.
Cases - 250k average -> 70k average. Dropping by about 19% a week.
Deaths - 3k average(peak of 3.4k) to just under 2k. The 3.4k peak I would say is still attributable to Trump, as the vast majority of those dying at that point would've been infected under Trump.
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On February 23 2021 09:39 Amui wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2021 01:09 JimmiC wrote:On February 22 2021 21:30 Slydie wrote:
You just can't use fighting the pandemic as an excuse justify everything. Every country has overreacted at times, and it HAS to be debated and criticised.
I am completely aware that Denmark was close to getting a very big 3rd wave, and they avoided it by closing down over Christmas. But did they still do too much and use the right criteria? I know the population there is extremely tired now.
If you want to see overreaction, Norway is a good place currently. The number of Covid related deaths hide perfectly well within the expected deaths for lower respiratory infections, and the the number of deaths was LOWER in 2020 than in other recent years.
At this point, predicting the development anfew weeks ahead should not be that difficult, and every country has more or less learned what works. I just wish they were brave enough to state what is acceptable and what is not, and consider well the costs and benefits. Careers, businesses, education, mental health, sports, social and cultural life also have value.
It feels like covid-19 cases and deaths is the only thing that matters now. Tens of thousands of all ages die all the time from all kinds of terrible conditions, but the truth is, as we don't know them and it isn't reported, we don't give a shit. I can't wait for the day this will be considered just one of many illnesses that can kill you. Why does this mean that they overreacted and not that they did a good job? What or who did what you would consider a good job? All those things you speak of are being considered at every meeting on these issues. There are not just doctors at them. I can't wait until this illness is considered one of those things that our healthcare systems can deal with without measures. And I hate how many people still think this only impacts the old and only deaths matter. There is currently a bunch of NHL players out months (hopefully not forever because of it), UFC fighters, NBA players, so on. All these young people, in their prime, best possible care and they are being rocked. This is not the flu, it is not close if people went on as normal and acted as if it was just one of the things you could catch it would be absolutely horrendous. Pretty much. When top level athletes suddenly have heart and lung problems after catching even mild bouts of covid, you can pretty much be sure that the average person without the same level of access and poorer health will also have the same issues, just undiagnosed. The cost isn't just now, it's all the productive years lost from people who aren't the same and the cost of taking care of them down the line. On a different note, we're now 6 weeks into the Biden presidency, and we can see what competent leadership towards Covid on a federal level has done. Not all of it can be attributed to Biden, as some policies were implemented right as the transition was occuring, and vaccinations undoubtedly have helped push the number down further. I would say he deserves a passing grade on that part at least. Cases - 250k average -> 70k average. Dropping by about 19% a week. Deaths - 3k average(peak of 3.4k) to just under 2k. The 3.4k peak I would say is still attributable to Trump, as the vast majority of those dying at that point would've been infected under Trump.
I see no reason to speculate in long-term effects right now, we will know in a year or two. For the vast majority, this IS equivalent to a MILD flu, or they have no symptoms at all, but around 15% get severely ill, and between 0,5 and 2,5% die, which is obviously too much. The good news is the vaccines all seem very effective against the more severe cases, so I hope we can learn to not worry too much at the pure number of infections soon.
The decline is an almost global trend following an upswing during Christmas. I don't think policy changes take effect that quickly, unless we are talking about very dramatic measures like lockdowns.
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On February 23 2021 09:39 Amui wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2021 01:09 JimmiC wrote:On February 22 2021 21:30 Slydie wrote:
You just can't use fighting the pandemic as an excuse justify everything. Every country has overreacted at times, and it HAS to be debated and criticised.
I am completely aware that Denmark was close to getting a very big 3rd wave, and they avoided it by closing down over Christmas. But did they still do too much and use the right criteria? I know the population there is extremely tired now.
If you want to see overreaction, Norway is a good place currently. The number of Covid related deaths hide perfectly well within the expected deaths for lower respiratory infections, and the the number of deaths was LOWER in 2020 than in other recent years.
At this point, predicting the development anfew weeks ahead should not be that difficult, and every country has more or less learned what works. I just wish they were brave enough to state what is acceptable and what is not, and consider well the costs and benefits. Careers, businesses, education, mental health, sports, social and cultural life also have value.
It feels like covid-19 cases and deaths is the only thing that matters now. Tens of thousands of all ages die all the time from all kinds of terrible conditions, but the truth is, as we don't know them and it isn't reported, we don't give a shit. I can't wait for the day this will be considered just one of many illnesses that can kill you. Why does this mean that they overreacted and not that they did a good job? What or who did what you would consider a good job? All those things you speak of are being considered at every meeting on these issues. There are not just doctors at them. I can't wait until this illness is considered one of those things that our healthcare systems can deal with without measures. And I hate how many people still think this only impacts the old and only deaths matter. There is currently a bunch of NHL players out months (hopefully not forever because of it), UFC fighters, NBA players, so on. All these young people, in their prime, best possible care and they are being rocked. This is not the flu, it is not close if people went on as normal and acted as if it was just one of the things you could catch it would be absolutely horrendous. Pretty much. When top level athletes suddenly have heart and lung problems after catching even mild bouts of covid, you can pretty much be sure that the average person without the same level of access and poorer health will also have the same issues, just undiagnosed. The cost isn't just now, it's all the productive years lost from people who aren't the same and the cost of taking care of them down the line. On a different note, we're now 6 weeks into the Biden presidency, and we can see what competent leadership towards Covid on a federal level has done. Not all of it can be attributed to Biden, as some policies were implemented right as the transition was occuring, and vaccinations undoubtedly have helped push the number down further. I would say he deserves a passing grade on that part at least. Cases - 250k average -> 70k average. Dropping by about 19% a week. Deaths - 3k average(peak of 3.4k) to just under 2k. The 3.4k peak I would say is still attributable to Trump, as the vast majority of those dying at that point would've been infected under Trump.
Does politics have to be so ingrained into everything? COVID peaked in the US in the middle of January and has been declining since. Before Biden even took office. Any changes in policies would take weeks or even months to show up in the numbers. And those changes would be small anyway because the policies that actually matter are done at the state and local levels. California had the worst surge of any state leading up to this decline and California is the most anti-trump blue state in the country.
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I'm watching the numbers for Israel a little closer than I should be.
They're doing around 10% of their population in doses per week, and assuming it's a 3 week gap between doses, there's approximately 87%/2 +10% of their population with at least one dose, so around 55%ish. Their cases are still stagnating/rising after dipping for a couple weeks.
We're going to still have some restrictions for a pretty long year in Canada. Unless our supply ramps up dramatically because Biden decides to be nice, it ain't happening.
I think with the studies showing single dose efficacy though for Biontech/Moderna, you can probably reach normality with ~90% of your population in doses. Everyone aged 70+, or with other health conditions requiring strong protection gets two doses, everyone else gets one until supply catches up with demand. UK and Quebec are doing long gaps between first and second doses, so we'll have enough data soon to make an informed decision about what the best plan is.
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On February 24 2021 06:54 Lmui wrote:
I'm watching the numbers for Israel a little closer than I should be.
They're doing around 10% of their population in doses per week, and assuming it's a 3 week gap, there's approximately 87%/2 +10% of their population with at least one dose, so around 55%ish. Their cases are still stagnating/rising after dipping for a couple weeks.
We're going to still have some restrictions for a pretty long year in Canada. Unless our supply ramps up dramatically because Biden decides to be nice, it ain't happening.
I think with the studies showing single dose efficacy though for Biontech/Moderna, you can probably reach normality with ~90% of your population in doses. Everyone aged 70+, or with other health conditions requiring strong protection gets two doses, everyone else gets one until supply catches up with demand. UK and Quebec are doing long gaps between first and second doses, so we'll have enough data soon to make an informed decision about what the best plan is. Israel's deaths seem to keep the downward trend tho and I think that is more indicative. The main benefit of the vaccine is the reduction in 'severe' cases and that shows in hospitalisations/deaths more then in new cases.
Either way, I think everyone was hoping the numbers would crash harder then they are, even with much vaccination.
2021 is probably just going to be a repeat of 2020 
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On February 24 2021 00:27 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2021 09:39 Amui wrote:On February 23 2021 01:09 JimmiC wrote:On February 22 2021 21:30 Slydie wrote:
You just can't use fighting the pandemic as an excuse justify everything. Every country has overreacted at times, and it HAS to be debated and criticised.
I am completely aware that Denmark was close to getting a very big 3rd wave, and they avoided it by closing down over Christmas. But did they still do too much and use the right criteria? I know the population there is extremely tired now.
If you want to see overreaction, Norway is a good place currently. The number of Covid related deaths hide perfectly well within the expected deaths for lower respiratory infections, and the the number of deaths was LOWER in 2020 than in other recent years.
At this point, predicting the development anfew weeks ahead should not be that difficult, and every country has more or less learned what works. I just wish they were brave enough to state what is acceptable and what is not, and consider well the costs and benefits. Careers, businesses, education, mental health, sports, social and cultural life also have value.
It feels like covid-19 cases and deaths is the only thing that matters now. Tens of thousands of all ages die all the time from all kinds of terrible conditions, but the truth is, as we don't know them and it isn't reported, we don't give a shit. I can't wait for the day this will be considered just one of many illnesses that can kill you. Why does this mean that they overreacted and not that they did a good job? What or who did what you would consider a good job? All those things you speak of are being considered at every meeting on these issues. There are not just doctors at them. I can't wait until this illness is considered one of those things that our healthcare systems can deal with without measures. And I hate how many people still think this only impacts the old and only deaths matter. There is currently a bunch of NHL players out months (hopefully not forever because of it), UFC fighters, NBA players, so on. All these young people, in their prime, best possible care and they are being rocked. This is not the flu, it is not close if people went on as normal and acted as if it was just one of the things you could catch it would be absolutely horrendous. Pretty much. When top level athletes suddenly have heart and lung problems after catching even mild bouts of covid, you can pretty much be sure that the average person without the same level of access and poorer health will also have the same issues, just undiagnosed. The cost isn't just now, it's all the productive years lost from people who aren't the same and the cost of taking care of them down the line. On a different note, we're now 6 weeks into the Biden presidency, and we can see what competent leadership towards Covid on a federal level has done. Not all of it can be attributed to Biden, as some policies were implemented right as the transition was occuring, and vaccinations undoubtedly have helped push the number down further. I would say he deserves a passing grade on that part at least. Cases - 250k average -> 70k average. Dropping by about 19% a week. Deaths - 3k average(peak of 3.4k) to just under 2k. The 3.4k peak I would say is still attributable to Trump, as the vast majority of those dying at that point would've been infected under Trump. It was clear before the election there was a big blue red divide. https://apnews.com/article/counties-worst-virus-surges-voted-trump-d671a483534024b5486715da6edb6ebf
You couldn't cherry pick this any harder even if you tried (maybe you were trying). You're posting a 4 month old article from the time that the middle rural states were getting their big surge to point out a red/blue divide? Why not post a recent article when California was getting their big surge? Or a article from last Spring when NY/NJ were stacking up the body bags? Last Spring Coronavirus didn't even exist in these middle states like Montana and Wyoming. Is it because those red states were so great at keeping it contained? No, it's common sense that coronavirus is going to take time to make it's way to small towns in middle America that people rarely visit. Waiting until coronavirus makes it to those middle insulated states while it declines in the coastal states to say "see how shit those red states are doing?" is just opportune partisan hackery and it's absolutely nauseating.
If you're going to make coronavirus all about politics maybe at least talk a little about Andrew Cuomo who is currently under investigation of his handling of the pandemic instead of just about trump trump trump who isn't even in office anymore. At least feign some objectivity so people (me) don't become nauseated from the partisanship.
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