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On February 02 2021 06:14 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2021 05:25 Lmui wrote:
Israel I think makes a good case that covid isn't going to go away until everyone is vaccinated. They had 10% at the beginning of January, they're at 55% now.
Two weeks ago, they were at around 35%, 1/3rd of their population vaccinated. Their cases are falling, slowly, but that's as much a combination of the lockdown that they have going as well as the vaccines. I've seen some news reports that the vaccines are very effective at preventing infections among the people who've been vaccinated for more than two weeks, or have received second doses. The problem is that the remaining population of susceptible people are more than capable of continuing the spread at a barely contained rate.
You'd expect the rate at which cases drop to be plummeting as each subsequent vaccine takes an increasingly large bite out of the remaining pool of unvaccinated people, but even 1/3 immunity barely makes a dent.
I'd expect it to take a good 60-80% vaccination for it to really make an impact. Getting 1/3 vaccinated is merely going to give you a slower exponential of infection. And that's with a good 90%+ efficacy vaccine. Weaker ones like Sinovac or AstraZeneca will be useless for herd immunity and will only provide individual protection even at 100%.
At the current vaccination rates, not too many countries will reach 60-80% by summer, which is a shame. I'd have liked to enjoy a worry free summer. I was kinda hoping that with around 30% vaccination rates, and minor things like masks, social distancing etc, we could wipe it out to a fair degree in Canada by summer, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards.
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I'm expecting next calendar year to be the earliest practical "full return to normal" timeline. There simply isn't enough time to resolve all the major vaccine deployment issues by summer no matter how much effort we pour into it. Hopefully death rates take a nosedive by March, as the most vulnerable get their vaccines.
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At least here in North Carolina, deaths are already cratering and *new* hospitalizations are trending downwards pretty quickly (there are plenty of "long tail" hospitalizations that make it tough to see the decreases in). We were admitting 450-500 confirmed cases daily statewide early in January, now it's only ~300 (we have a pretty nifty dashboard). It's a little tough to tell how much is vaccines vs leaving behind the destruction wrought by traveling in the November/December season, though; I think that was particularly bad for deaths.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the next month or two. I want to no longer have to fight to impulse to check Nate Silver's 50% awful 50% average takes on COVID. And do the whole traveling safely and seeing friends thing, of course.
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I honestly haven't been tracking SC that much; they did just get a case of the South African strain, but obviously that hasn't kicked in yet. Both states have about the same vaccinations per capita as well from some napkin math.
North Carolina does have a pretty robust healthcare infrastructure between Duke and UNC's various campuses and affiliates, and Cooper has been fairly aggressive with his policies (even if they're ultimately toothless because of a lack of will to enforce them).
I suspect some of the deaths may just be fluctuation/when or if care homes were hit; that's why you see a lot of these numbers pogo up and down. COVID ripped through more than a few of our long term care/senior living facilities early in the pandemic, and I think that may have heightened our guard in at least one vulnerable population.
(it's also pretty difficult to compare numbers across states without doing a lot of digging, since there can be different update timings and some use suspected and some use confirmed COVID)
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Somebody fairly close to me got stye (eyelid infection) on both eyes. That and other eye and skin infections are known side effects of mask wearing, and the ophthalmologist said there had been a massive upswing in cases following the mask mandates in Spain.
There are many reasons to be very careful wearing those, and I will never stop being annoyed about how overrated they are, and there are negative health issues which can outweigh the potential benefits in most situations.
I wish we could go back to last spring where people just kept a distance and washed hands. Sigh.
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On February 03 2021 06:53 Slydie wrote:
Somebody fairly close to me got stye (eyelid infection) on both eyes. That and other eye and skin infections are known side effects of mask wearing, and the ophthalmologist said there had been a massive upswing in cases following the mask mandates in Spain.
There are many reasons to be very careful wearing those, and I will never stop being annoyed about how overrated they are, and there are negative health issues which can outweigh the potential benefits in most situations.
I wish we could go back to last spring where people just kept a distance and washed hands. Sigh.
I imagine there's an almost 1:1 overlap between the group of people that can't be arsed to wash their hands and the group of people that haven't figured out how to use masks in a year.
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Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On February 03 2021 07:36 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2021 06:53 Slydie wrote:
Somebody fairly close to me got stye (eyelid infection) on both eyes. That and other eye and skin infections are known side effects of mask wearing, and the ophthalmologist said there had been a massive upswing in cases following the mask mandates in Spain.
There are many reasons to be very careful wearing those, and I will never stop being annoyed about how overrated they are, and there are negative health issues which can outweigh the potential benefits in most situations.
I wish we could go back to last spring where people just kept a distance and washed hands. Sigh. I imagine there's an almost 1:1 overlap between the group of people that can't be arsed to wash their hands and the group of people that haven't figured out how to use masks in a year.
I’m just loathe to cede ground to people who are itching to find any excuse to not wear masks.
Denizens of this thread I think by and large know that masks aren’t a panacea and need used correctly. While I’d prefer this to be more common knowledge, I fear people would ditch mask wearing rather than improving their usage of masks.
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Flew home to Florida to see my parents for the first time since last January. San Francisco airport was a ghost town but Ft. Lauderdale airport was pretty lit. Props to Florida on being able to stay open for so long. California is now basically worst in the country in unemployment rate ahead of only the tourism-heavy states of Hawaii and Nevada.
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On February 03 2021 07:48 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2021 07:36 Dan HH wrote:On February 03 2021 06:53 Slydie wrote:
Somebody fairly close to me got stye (eyelid infection) on both eyes. That and other eye and skin infections are known side effects of mask wearing, and the ophthalmologist said there had been a massive upswing in cases following the mask mandates in Spain.
There are many reasons to be very careful wearing those, and I will never stop being annoyed about how overrated they are, and there are negative health issues which can outweigh the potential benefits in most situations.
I wish we could go back to last spring where people just kept a distance and washed hands. Sigh. I imagine there's an almost 1:1 overlap between the group of people that can't be arsed to wash their hands and the group of people that haven't figured out how to use masks in a year. I’m just loathe to cede ground to people who are itching to find any excuse to not wear masks. Denizens of this thread I think by and large know that masks aren’t a panacea and need used correctly. While I’d prefer this to be more common knowledge, I fear people would ditch mask wearing rather than improving their usage of masks.
I believe the reason mask mandates are likely to be removed very slowly is that it is feared that if you stop wearing them, you will stop doing everything else as well, like reintroduce handshakes, talk more closely, hugs, kisses etc.
The Spanish government is AWFUL at promoting good use of masks, the youtube video from the government only has 90k views...
Good use isnt "sexy", A LOT of use is, preferably in situations where people are SEEN. The latest fashions are multiple and more protective masks. At least "obligatorio uso de mascarilla" is not on top of most posters anymore.
The focus here has been all wrong while the plame is showed around for unforgivable and impactful mistakes like opening up for more travel for Christmas and Summer holidays. Privately, I have a theory that this was how the population survived the Franco era: do what is required in public and live your life behind closed doors. What people did for Christmas celebrations is obviously a taboo.
When that is said, closing down all bars, restaurants, travel etc. has finally made the christmas 3rd wave regress almost all over the country. Unfortuntaely the vaccine rollout is to slow for a safe reopening any time soon.
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On February 03 2021 22:04 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2021 07:48 WombaT wrote:On February 03 2021 07:36 Dan HH wrote:On February 03 2021 06:53 Slydie wrote:
Somebody fairly close to me got stye (eyelid infection) on both eyes. That and other eye and skin infections are known side effects of mask wearing, and the ophthalmologist said there had been a massive upswing in cases following the mask mandates in Spain.
There are many reasons to be very careful wearing those, and I will never stop being annoyed about how overrated they are, and there are negative health issues which can outweigh the potential benefits in most situations.
I wish we could go back to last spring where people just kept a distance and washed hands. Sigh. I imagine there's an almost 1:1 overlap between the group of people that can't be arsed to wash their hands and the group of people that haven't figured out how to use masks in a year. I’m just loathe to cede ground to people who are itching to find any excuse to not wear masks. Denizens of this thread I think by and large know that masks aren’t a panacea and need used correctly. While I’d prefer this to be more common knowledge, I fear people would ditch mask wearing rather than improving their usage of masks. The focus here has been all wrong while the plame is showed around for unforgivable and impactful mistakes like opening up for more travel for Christmas and Summer holidays. Privately, I have a theory that this was how the population survived the Franco era: do what is required in public and live your life behind closed doors. What people did for Christmas celebrations is obviously a taboo. When that is said, closing down all bars, restaurants, travel etc. has finally made the christmas 3rd wave regress almost all over the country. Unfortuntaely the vaccine rollout is to slow for a safe reopening any time soon.
I would argue Spain has barely stabilized, and is still at an extremely high case load. If you want to reopen any time soon, you need harsher measures, not softer. From what I see, cases have dropped just over 10% in two weeks. It barely qualifies as regression when you're one holiday from square one.
Assuming you need a tenth of current cases to relax measures, it would take ~10 months at that rate. Based on your posting I don't have high hopes for you, or Spain in general for holding out for that long.
For comparison, UK is dropping 10% every ~2.5 days, which is roughly 6 weeks for an order of magnitude. US is a bit slower at ~3 days, Germany is at ~2.5 days, Canada is at 3 and so on. I would argue that any lockdown which can't accomplish at least a 10x reduction in cases within 2 months just isn't worth doing.
Vaccination isn't going to save you either. If Israel, with a third or more of the population immune by now still can't seem to control an outbreak, the 10-20% most countries will be at by the end of Q1 will do fuck all for preventing outbreaks, only reducing the severity and increasing the ease at which it can be brought under control.
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In something of a different topic, one of the big programs to get vaccines to poorer countries is the WHO's Covax program, and they just published a distribution plan for near-term deliverables to mostly poorer nations, plus Canada. It's remarkable both how strongly this program leans on the AstraZeneca vaccine and how minimal the coverage is, providing for a mere 3% vaccination over the next few months. The failure to live up to expectations of the AstraZeneca vaccine is going to have long-term repercussions for most of the world, with some preliminary figures suggesting that it might take until as far out as 2023 for some of these countries to have widespread vaccine coverage. Yikes.
All the countries that have good quality vaccines have them pretty much booked out for their own use for the rest of the calendar year. It looks like everyone else will be either striking desperate supply deals or waiting their turn.
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Masks are no quick fix for this pandemic, on a large scale, they should be expected to have only limited effectiveness. My local idiot politicians (desperate to appear responsable) just obliged them for outside exercise as well, even thought the WHO states it is dangerous, and nobody should expect it to prevent a single case of covid-19.
I have been quite careful about switching my masks around, washing them and wearing them as little as possible. Breathing through those fungus and bacteria is obviously a hazard for myself.
If you are positive, instead of dilluting the virus into the air where it does not harm, you are bringing it with you inside your mask. If you are not very careful when taking it off and handeling it, wearing a mask is counterproductive.
It is too bad "wear a mask" is so much easier to say and promote than proper use and in which situations they are expected to actually make a real difference.
Don't take it personally, but, you know.. Bullshit.
First, the WHO doesn't "state it's dangerous", lol. They advice against it - and only because there's disgusting humans out there unable to wash their masks. Doesn't sound as screechy though, i guess you took some artistical liberties there. Here's what they're actually saying.
People should NOT wear masks when exercising, as masks may reduce the ability to breathe comfortably.
Sweat can make the mask become wet more quickly which makes it difficult to breathe and promotes the growth of microorganisms. The important preventive measure during exercise is to maintain physical distance of at least one meter from others.
Other than that: they very much advice to wear a mask.
Your second "wisdom" is by far the dumbest fucking thing i've heard in a while, and i have talked to plandemics people recently.
The entire point of the mask is to NOT "dilute" the virus into the air, the fuck is that even supposed to mean? Yes you're bringing it with you inside your mask, but the fuck does it matter when the alternative is "diluting it into the air", with the guy behind you potentially still collecting enough viral load to get sick?
And funny you mention stuffs easier to say than to promote proper use, while simultaneously being one of them dumbasses who can't wait to get their sweaty hands on an excuse to not wear a stupid piece of cloth for a while.
You know when they make a real difference? When you're positive. Masks, and the advice surrounding them were never designed to protect you. They're to protect others from you.
Now, masks obviously don't work by themselves, you're still required to socially distance and disinfect/wash your hands regularly. Guess why that is.
Well the masks dont really do anything anyways unless you are sick and sneezy/coughing anyway. Especially if its a bandana , cloth, etc. My mom got me one of those copper fit gaiters and I can hold a lighter out arms length and blow it out.
You need a surgical mask/n95 for any real prevention of getting others sick. And even then, if I hit my vape and blow it out it all comes out the side of my mask (its essentially water vapor). And they do not prevent you from getting sick. Especially since you can touch shit then touch your nose,mouth,eyes whatever and it gets in that way. With all the mask on off, im touching my face more than ever.
Well i guess there's always a dumber person.
In this entire post, there's a single factual statement. First of all, a gaiter clearly isn't a mask, so i'm not sure why you're bringing that up. The advice isn't to wear a gaiter, it's to wear a gaiter if you're too stupid to get a decent mask after almost a year into a pandemic.
Yes, N95 or higher is what you actually want. You got that one right. And no, it's not the only way for "real prevention of getting others sick", but lets go with the statement that makes clear that you don't actually know what you're even talking about.
First. Here's a high def 3d image of how a mask actually helps even if your "scientific douche flute test" might suggest otherwise.
+ Show Spoiler +
Second, your breath carries a lot less liquid than a load of vape. Do you think that steam coming out of your mask is in any way, shape or form comparable to your actual breathing?
Here's how it actually works. To get sick you need a certain amount of "viral load". You wearing a mask means that if you look in my direction and breath, talk, cough or do anything, the spray doesn't reach me but stays with you. With social distancing, the pathogen can not bridge the gap between you and me. I wear my mask as an added layer of protection (and of course in case i'm asymptomatic). All these measures aren't to make you immune to the virus, it's to reduce the viral load to a point where you don't break out.
It really isn't rocket science.
And the entire face touching part, i mean.. I'd understand that argument for a 6 year old. If a grown ass man tells me that he now is at a higher risk because he constantly "has to" touch his face even though there might be something seriously dangerous on his fingers, rather than, i don't know, washing his hands or using one of the billions of disinfectants that lie around everywhere, not sure what to tell you. Natural selection, i guess. Sidenote, your fingers touch shit around you, and your eyes start itching whether or not you wear a mask.
This stupid anti-mask bullshit really gets old, and i'm absolutely tired of explaining things 800 times a day to people who can't grasp even basic facts and concepts.
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Meanwhile it's now 3 weeks since the new lockdown and 2 weeks after schools closed in Portugal. Thankfully, the peak in cases was reached on Jan 28 with the 7 day average being 12 890 that day, and coming down to 8100 just over a week later. Cases are coming down just as fast as they went up, thankfully. Any other scenario would have been utterly catastrophic as hospitals reached breaking point.
It must be really hard to make the case that hard lockdowns don't work at this point. We don't know how long this lockdown is going to be, but most are prepared to spend February in confinement. Hopefully that brings cases way down, at a time when vaccinations will ramp up and sunny days come.
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On February 06 2021 00:42 warding wrote:
Meanwhile it's now 3 weeks since the new lockdown and 2 weeks after schools closed in Portugal. Thankfully, the peak in cases was reached on Jan 28 with the 7 day average being 12 890 that day, and coming down to 8100 just over a week later. Cases are coming down just as fast as they went up, thankfully. Any other scenario would have been utterly catastrophic as hospitals reached breaking point.
It must be really hard to make the case that hard lockdowns don't work at this point. We don't know how long this lockdown is going to be, but most are prepared to spend February in confinement. Hopefully that brings cases way down, at a time when vaccinations will ramp up and sunny days come.
You'd be surprised...
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Poland is easing restrictions on 12 of February so i expect new cases to soar in March.
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What exactly is Poland opening up again? Maybe it isn't that bad...
Maybe in combination with that. There is/was much talk about this "Britain-mutant" and that it is much more infectious.
And I scrolled through the numbers of most European countries. And basically _all_ numbers are going down or at least it is stagnating. Finland is going up, but we are talking 400 persons. And probably the most infections are in "moving sideways" France.or Italy. The rest? And espacially GB? Downwards it goes!
So for all the "hype" around this "new" virus it is doing exactly nothing ... aside maybe inducing "fear" in some people...
http://www.dkriesel.com/corona
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EPT![[image loading]](https://cdn.msuk-forum.co.uk/monthly_2020_09/1785621797_NewBitmapImage(3).thumb.jpg.b27464a721a7cc93650bf027c2c6a243.jpg)
