EPTCan we finally call this a second wave rather than "first wave that never ends?"
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Can we finally call this a second wave rather than "first wave that never ends?" | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
On October 11 2020 14:51 LegalLord wrote: Really looks like across the board things are going pretty bad. Not a lot of countries are trending positively and those that are, are the ones that never got things under control to start with. Pretty much right on schedule with the onset of colder weather. If that's truly the cause rather than just an ill-timed coincidence, we probably have a brutal 6 months in store. Can we finally call this a second wave rather than "first wave that never ends?" Interestingly, the global chart is basically just a steady rise. Countries like France look very similar to the Spanish flu second wave. Pretty creepy how similar. The planet is still riding a single wave, but that is due to individual countries taking turns. So I think it depends on where you're talking about. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4374 Posts
Lockdowns are reversing years of progress regarding poverty reduction in low & middle income countries. https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74 Coronavirus: WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies. Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus. He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved. “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said. | ||
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arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
I'm really surprised we don't get more answers to these questions, since this would be useful both, when taking lock-down decisions and for people to know how to protect themselves. | ||
KwarK
United States43368 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On October 11 2020 20:58 arbiter_md wrote: What I find strange is that the question "where have you caught the virus" and "how did you get the virus" is never asked. We need to look specifically at the places where and how most people get infected to know what scenarios we want to fight against if we want to contain this. E.g. I don't know what's the chance of getting the infection in a plane, assuming one passenger is infected during a two hour flight. Or what's the chance getting it if riding in the same car with someone infected for one hour. Do the people get infected in supermarkets? I'm really surprised we don't get more answers to these questions, since this would be useful both, when taking lock-down decisions and for people to know how to protect themselves. To know where people got infected, you need to know who infected them. Unfortunately, the contact tracing system has completely degenerated in most places with community spread, so it's difficult to assess this is any area where it's relevant (keep in mind that the hotspots have changed immensely from early on the pandemic; good old Biogen). Between that and the difficulty generating denominators in the # of people passing through places, it's an epi methods nightmare. The best you see is some scattered tallies of # of cases linked to specific bars/etc., and even that is really painful to get (there's a clear interest not to share that data both for the bar and the city as a whole). As an example in air travel, where you'd think the denominator would be easy to get, it's not really just the plane flight-it's the terminal coming in, the terminal going out, etc., etc. Early on before any safety measures were taken, there was at least one study of a dozen + infected on a flight. There has also been some evidence that the combination of the air filters all planes come with and then the subsequent mask rules appeared to drop the risk a great deal, though. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
“We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Nabarro said. “The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.” Basically a verbatim account of what I have been saying in this thread for over 6 months. I'm glad the health professionals and I agree. | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On October 11 2020 18:23 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: WHO has now come out strongly against Lockdown policies. Lockdowns are reversing years of progress regarding poverty reduction in low & middle income countries. https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74 Coronavirus: WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns Its so strange. The first world " second waves" are proceeding exactly how lockdown-skeptics predicted in April, yet somehow pro-lockdown people are pointing at them as a point in favor of more lockdowns. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On October 12 2020 06:27 JimmiC wrote: This is what everyone has been saying. No one thinks lockdowns should be the primary method, nor have they been. The big strawman is that there a pro lockdown people wanting permanent lockdowns. I see we are just rewriting history now, as if the last 6 months weren't just filled of criticism of all the governors that were "reopening their states too early." Also are you really going to try to make the argument that the lockdowns weren't used as a primary method of controlling the virus? Hospital census was down across the country. Nurses and Doctors were laid off by the thousands. What about any of that seems like "last resort" to you? Btw I've never even made the argument that the "pro-lockdown" people want permanent lockdowns so I don't know where you see that strawman at, but even if I did want to make that argument I would only have to go back a few pages in this thread to find an example of it On October 08 2020 14:34 Mohdoo wrote: Things with limited value yet high rates of transmission should be closed. ... They should re-open when a vaccine is distributed. I've managed to live a happy life despite not going to a movie theater for the past 7 months. It is ok to make concessions in life. I don't need to always have everything. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On October 12 2020 07:34 JimmiC wrote: People reopening early would be a problem even with what the WHO said, reread it. And then having awful policy (and behavior) after you reopen letting spread get out control again is also bad and might lead to future lock downs because again you might need too "lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it." It does not say never use lockdown as a tool, it says it is not the only tool. There is nothing new or shocking about that statement. lol My county went into shelter-in-place before we had our first death. Since that time until today we've had a total of 230 deaths. About 1 death a day in a county with over 1 million people. Gyms/movies/salons, etc. just opened in my county a week or 2 ago. But ok, nothing new or shocking about the idea of lockdowns as a last resort. Even when I re-quoted my post from back in April when I called for loosening the lockdowns I got shit on for 3 pages straight by the people in this thread. Now the WHO says the same thing and it's eerily quiet in here except for you trying to rewrite history. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4374 Posts
On October 12 2020 06:27 JimmiC wrote: This is what everyone has been saying. No one thinks lockdowns should be the primary method, nor have they been. The big strawman is that there a pro lockdown people wanting permanent lockdowns. There are plenty in Australia.Victoria has been in lockdown for over half of this year.Thankfully the Premiers secretary resigned a few hours ago and there are rumblings that the premiers own party will remove him from office. Seems like his comments recently that restrictions may not be lifted as much as expected (on Oct 19th) even though a state of 6 million is only getting 10-15 cases per day may have been the last straw. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On October 12 2020 06:27 JimmiC wrote: This is what everyone has been saying. No one thinks lockdowns should be the primary method, nor have they been. The big strawman is that there a pro lockdown people wanting permanent lockdowns. Lockdowns are the only primary method being used. There is no pro-lockdown straw man. Pro-lockdown governors (such as in IL) have often introduced "opening" phases where it was obvious to anyone with a brain that some stages were unobtainable until vaccine (full deployment) or herd immunity. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
Is it purely whether non-essential businesses are open? Is it whether non-essential businesses are open but high-risk of transmission businesses are not allowed to open? Does it have less to do with businesses than it does with enforcing limited social contact (and I mean actually enforcing it)? Is it bans on gatherings of 30 people? 100 people? Is it mandating work from home? Is it largely about limiting local and international travel, as discussed in the WHO article? It doesn't help that special interests groups are doing their best to muddle the answers to all these questions. I mean, is "social distancing" a lockdown/part of lockdowns? Or not? | ||
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Longshank
1648 Posts
On October 12 2020 15:58 TheTenthDoc wrote: I think part of the issue is that "lockdown" means different things in different places, and its efficacy varies wildly based on geography and culture. A handy illustration is NZ's alert levels. I think their level 4 would definitely qualify as a lockdown. But what about level 3? Level 2? Is it purely whether non-essential businesses are open? Is it whether non-essential businesses are open but high-risk of transmission businesses are not allowed to open? Does it have less to do with businesses than it does with enforcing limited social contact (and I mean actually enforcing it)? Is it bans on gatherings of 30 people? 100 people? Is it mandating work from home? Is it largely about limiting local and international travel, as discussed in the WHO article? It doesn't help that special interests groups are doing their best to muddle the answers to all these questions. I mean, is "social distancing" a lockdown/part of lockdowns? Or not? Well, the entire world has been screaming at Sweden for not doing a lockdown so you can look at our restrictions and go from there. I can give you a starting point, it's not shutting down on-site education for people aged 15+, it's not banning all visits to our care home and it's not bans on gatherings of more than 50 people. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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