EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 176
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5296 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
We see that Sweden's cases aren't slowing down, which is a bad sign. We see that ICU numbers aren't Italy-like, which is a good sign. There are plenty of others to look at - antibody studies, economics, death rate relative to analogous countries, and so on. Looks to me exactly like a mixed bag that we can and should make value judgments on. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5296 Posts
time is a part of the equation whether you like it or not. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15723 Posts
My impression is that when an infection is new, part of the issue is that we aren't dealing with it correctly. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23460 Posts
Without venturing too close to inciting needless fear or blind hope there can still be information that could radically change the long term ramifications of their strategy that we're still unaware of. A generally true statement about practically anything, but the novel nature and rapid development of information on this particular strain means it's more significant a factor than it would be for something like swallowing gum or not managing insulin levels. | ||
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
They did have more deaths but it's still probably in line with bad heatwave or bad-flu years, and it's early to judge the economic impact - and also not fair, since they will suffer from drops in trade due to everyone else also shutting down. It's shitty but I wouldn't call this a massive failure yet. | ||
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On June 06 2020 01:36 warding wrote: What's weird about Sweden is that they were predicting reaching herd immunity somewhere around now and yet the serological studies there showed way lower levels than they had expected. So Sweden, even while daring the virus to come at it with full force, like a portuguese forcado, couldn't get enough people to get infected. Then while still far away from herd immunity and with no great change in policy (correct me if I'm wrong?) they are indeed seeing drops in new infections and mortality although rather slowly. They did have more deaths but it's still probably in line with bad heatwave or bad-flu years, and it's early to judge the economic impact - and also not fair, since they will suffer from drops in trade due to everyone else also shutting down. It's shitty but I wouldn't call this a massive failure yet. Herd immunity by now would've come with a massive death toll. As much as it sounds like a nice plan on paper to get ahead of other countries and reopen simply because it can't spread any more, it only works if enough citizens are on board with the idea. If everyone wants everybody but them to take the risk, it just isn't going to happen. BC (not canada in general) has managed to get it down to mostly single digit new cases each day, from hundreds, which shows that it can be controlled with a few months of diligence from the population, with masks, distancing etc. NY state had some data come out that despite 0.28% of the population dying so far(based on excess deaths, rather than identified deaths), only 20% of the population had antibodies. I don't think it's a viable option when you need about 3x that. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18113 Posts
That said, if you just let it spread somewhat uncontrolledly as Sweden is doing, and Spain and most other countries did to start with, it's largely going to depend on how well prepared your hospitals are, and what the population demographics are like. Spain is comparatively old and comparatively poor when put next to Sweden. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21951 Posts
On June 06 2020 01:36 warding wrote: Sweden did not go full balls to the wall, they didn't close some things others did (like restaurants) but large gatherings were still banned and social distancing guidelines introduced (tho I am not sure on how far they went, maybe someone from Sweden reads here and can chime in?)What's weird about Sweden is that they were predicting reaching herd immunity somewhere around now and yet the serological studies there showed way lower levels than they had expected. So Sweden, even while daring the virus to come at it with full force, like a portuguese forcado, couldn't get enough people to get infected. Then while still far away from herd immunity and with no great change in policy (correct me if I'm wrong?) they are indeed seeing drops in new infections and mortality although rather slowly. They did have more deaths but it's still probably in line with bad heatwave or bad-flu years, and it's early to judge the economic impact - and also not fair, since they will suffer from drops in trade due to everyone else also shutting down. It's shitty but I wouldn't call this a massive failure yet. Also do not underestimate measures people take on their own accord, aka maintaining more distance and better hygiene. Which, judging by the nations opening back up, social distancing on its own already appears to have a big impact in reducing spread. | ||
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
I just think it's weird that the virus hasn't gone above 15% in any region, practically. This thing is supposed to spread quite fast and up to 60-70% of the population, and yet even the alarmingly dysfunctional countries are not seeing high prevalence. This would lead me to believe the virus is really easy to contain - even the countries/states not trying hard or not capable of trying seem to contain it. On the other hand, other things suggest it's quite difficult to contain and get the Rt way under 1 even in countries with hard lockdown. Portugal is stuck in 300 cases a day for a while now and the government and people are following the playbook. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
On June 06 2020 02:49 warding wrote: I wasn't defending herd immunity. It's clear that if the virus strikes even only 5%-10% of the population quickly enough it'll overload your health system and that's awful on all aspects. I just think it's weird that the virus hasn't gone above 15% in any region, practically. This thing is supposed to spread quite fast and up to 60-70% of the population, and yet even the alarmingly dysfunctional countries are not seeing high prevalence. This would lead me to believe the virus is really easy to contain - even the countries/states not trying hard or not capable of trying seem to contain it. On the other hand, other things suggest it's quite difficult to contain and get the Rt way under 1 even in countries with hard lockdown. Portugal is stuck in 300 cases a day for a while now and the government and people are following the playbook. I think out of any area New York City has been hit the hardest at 20% antibody rate. But I was there in early March and everything was completely normal whereas Northern California was already getting quite paranoid with masks/sanitizing/WFH | ||
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arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
1 - Test, trace and isolate until the virus disappears from the country, like in New Zealand. 2 - Vaccine. 3 - Efficient treatment. 4 - Herd immunity. I think 1 is the best case. And it could be achieved pretty much everywhere if we had cheap and fast testing available. South Korea and Australia are doing quite well and might have success there. Unfortunately most of the money have gone to 2 & 3. Cases 2 and 3 look like a gamble currently. There are money in, but nobody knows if we will get there. Case 4 is looking like the most countries expect to be in. And that's the worst case scenario. I don't know what kind of math the people estimating it are doing, but having reached 5% in Spain in half a year, and needing to reach 70% means it will take 7 years! If the case 4 is the final result in the most of the countries, then the Sweden approach is the best here. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4356 Posts
On June 06 2020 00:25 xM(Z wrote: on Sweden - you can't draw a line and start adding things up; covid is not done, it's not over. come autumn/winter, other infection waves could come. Could do, but some specialists are now saying the virus is weakening for now.Great timing for the USA considering organisers for the BLM protest this weekend in Washington DC are hoping to get up to one million people there.How much things can change in a week! https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/06/04/upmc-gives-update-on-coronavirus/ “The total amount of the virus that the patient has is much less than in earlier stages of the pandemic,” says Dr. Donald Yealy, UPMC senior medical director and chair of Emergency Medicine. “We’ve seen a continual decline in positive test results in the past few weeks.” Coronavirus is not as prevalent today compared to weeks ago. That’s for our community and others. “Recent reports from northern Italy indicate that the SARS-CoV2 virus, that is what causes COVID-19 illness and infection, may be changing, with some patterns suggesting that the potency has diminished,” Dr. Yealy said. | ||
opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On June 06 2020 23:28 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Could do, but some specialists are now saying the virus is weakening for now.Great timing for the USA considering organisers for the BLM protest this weekend in Washington DC are hoping to get up to one million people there.How much things can change in a week! https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/06/04/upmc-gives-update-on-coronavirus/ Pretty sure that Italian opinion has been overturned/debunked. It's even noted in the article you linked, further down... | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria832 Posts
On June 06 2020 16:32 arbiter_md wrote: I see 4 ways to get out of this virus: 1 - Test, trace and isolate until the virus disappears from the country, like in New Zealand. 2 - Vaccine. 3 - Efficient treatment. 4 - Herd immunity. I think 1 is the best case. And it could be achieved pretty much everywhere if we had cheap and fast testing available. South Korea and Australia are doing quite well and might have success there. Unfortunately most of the money have gone to 2 & 3. Cases 2 and 3 look like a gamble currently. There are money in, but nobody knows if we will get there. Case 4 is looking like the most countries expect to be in. And that's the worst case scenario. I don't know what kind of math the people estimating it are doing, but having reached 5% in Spain in half a year, and needing to reach 70% means it will take 7 years! If the case 4 is the final result in the most of the countries, then the Sweden approach is the best here. Option 4 won't work, you need a looooong time and coronavirus parties to achieve that. Sweden is no where near herd immunity and they picked that option. Now they regret it. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On June 07 2020 00:51 SC-Shield wrote: Option 4 won't work, you need a looooong time and coronavirus parties to achieve that. Sweden is no where near herd immunity and they picked that option. Now they regret it. But you can't know anything about Sweden until like a year into this! /s One of the things most striking about the Sweden story is that, unlike its neighbors that handled it the "traditional" way and have finally brought the infection down to manageable levels, Sweden still very much has an active infection. It seems that there is a strong critical mass effect where if the virus spreads far enough, you start to have a very tough time localizing and eliminating it. Sure, you eventually have to find a sustainable strategy to limit the spread, but that's much easier if you knock it down to a much more manageable base level of infection. Sweden didn't, and now they get to have their "sustainable strategy" with an order of magnitude more people infected than Norway / Finland / Denmark / etc. | ||
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AxionSteel
United States7754 Posts
Here in NYC it’s certainly dropped off, Which is making the USA graph look misleading as it is spiking in many other places.. but with the protests, summer coming on, people bored of quarantine and then eventually businesses opening up, I have no confidence there won’t be a resurgence. Took a while but finally seeing the spike I expected in the Southern States. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria832 Posts
On June 07 2020 01:16 LegalLord wrote: But you can't know anything about Sweden until like a year into this! /s One of the things most striking about the Sweden story is that, unlike its neighbors that handled it the "traditional" way and have finally brought the infection down to manageable levels, Sweden still very much has an active infection. It seems that there is a strong critical mass effect where if the virus spreads far enough, you start to have a very tough time localizing and eliminating it. Sure, you eventually have to find a sustainable strategy to limit the spread, but that's much easier if you knock it down to a much more manageable base level of infection. Sweden didn't, and now they get to have their "sustainable strategy" with an order of magnitude more people infected than Norway / Finland / Denmark / etc. Has no scientist done some simulation to say how long it will take to achieve herd immunity? Sure, it's 100% possible but it depends on cost and that's why most people don't believe in it. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
We don't know the level of immunity because the test results for antibodies that were made public a couple of weeks ago (7% immunity) reflected the situation in mid April here (the tests were taken in the beginning of may and it takes a couple of weeks to get the antibodies). What that means for the level of immunity in the population is very hard to say though and the experts seem conflicted from what I can see. | ||
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