On December 04 2021 04:09 Emnjay808 wrote: $AMC is looking good to get into. Exited my position months earlier this year with amazing gains (technically it was a pump n dump). Looking to get back in.
$NIO is also a good buy if ur looking for something long.
Edit: not financial advice
Is there a reason people include this not financial advice thing? What does this do?
Isn't that just american lawyery stuff where you need disclaimers for everything, because stupid people without any common sense will sue you for stupid amounts of money if you do not have them?
I still distinctly remember a glass door when i visited the US. It was so plastered with "careful, glass door, do not run into it!" signs that you could no longer look through the glass door.
Also the stories of people sueing McDonalds after dropping hot coffee in their own lap. This stuff seems to be core to the american "justice" system, so people try to protect themselves from it with disclaimers. Which makes everything annoying and hard to read.
McDonald's Coffee story is a lesson in the power of corporate propaganda. McDonalds coffee was heated to 180 degrees so that it would be hot 5-10 minutes after you left the drive through. The woman who dropped her coffee had her labia fused from the heat and originally only asked McDonald's to pay for her medical bills. McDonalds refused and she ended up getting a huge settlement for their negligence. You'll see people parroting McDonald's propaganda about how Americans are sue happy and too dumb to realize that coffee is hot to this day. They aren't and this disinformation is intentional so that McDonald's could avoid paying out.
Okay, i am confused here. Google tells me that 180°F is about 83°C, which is a perfectly normal temperature for a beverage made by boiling water? Do you not make tea in the US?
When i make tea, i heat the water in a water cooker until it boils, which means it is at nearly 100°C (212°F!) when i pour it in the can. 2 minutes later in an isolating can, the tea is done and almost certainly still at a temperature of 80°C or more. Coffee is also made by boiling water, so why is 83°C too hot? That is absolutely i temperature i would expect my coffee to have.
I assume you did not mean 180°C, because you would need some serious pressure to get water (or coffee) to that temperature.
And of course, the paying medical bills thing is another uniquely american thing.
For reference hot coffee at starbucks is served at ~71 degrees, so significantly cooler.
It is true that the lady was seriously hurt and suffered disfigurement, and also that she initially only wanted her medical bills paid.
I think this case is an interesting illustration of the differences between how American society and most Euro ones deal with individuals suffering harm due to negligence or incompetence from the powers that be (whether those be the state, or corporations).
In the US if something like this happens it can _fuck_ you. A lot of people dont have 20k in cash to drop on medical bills, so they have to go into debt, which can quickly spiral etc. To balance this, the potential penalties for hurting people are very high, causing for example doctors to take out sky high medical malpractice insurance policies or in this case forcing McDonald's to change the their coffee operation to minimize the risk of people getting hurt.
Meanwhile in Europe if an individual gets hurt their life usually isnt over. Hospital costs are manageable, employers usually cant fire you because you're in the hospital for a few months etc etc. On the other hand the compensation and punishment is often limited to "Too bad, we're sorry". See e.g. the the case of the Austrian doctor who chopped of a fully functioning leg by accident: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/02/austrian-surgeon-fined-2700-for-amputating-wrong-leg.
Completely anecdotal tangent: a friend of my sister's presented to her primary care doctor with fatigue, stomach cramps and weight loss over the cause of a year. He referred her to an oncologist who told her that young people don't get cancer and that she should rest more. A year later she went back to the same primary care doctor who sent her to a different oncologist, who promptly diagnosed her with stage-4 butt cancer. In The US doctor number 1 would have been in trouble, in Sweden her company issued a statement like "Routines were followed but we are sorry."
Both systems have advantages and disadvantages, but it's really not as simple as "lol America" which is the reaction of most Euros when they hear the coffee story.
On December 04 2021 04:09 Emnjay808 wrote: $AMC is looking good to get into. Exited my position months earlier this year with amazing gains (technically it was a pump n dump). Looking to get back in.
$NIO is also a good buy if ur looking for something long.
Edit: not financial advice
Is there a reason people include this not financial advice thing? What does this do?
Isn't that just american lawyery stuff where you need disclaimers for everything, because stupid people without any common sense will sue you for stupid amounts of money if you do not have them?
I still distinctly remember a glass door when i visited the US. It was so plastered with "careful, glass door, do not run into it!" signs that you could no longer look through the glass door.
Also the stories of people sueing McDonalds after dropping hot coffee in their own lap. This stuff seems to be core to the american "justice" system, so people try to protect themselves from it with disclaimers. Which makes everything annoying and hard to read.
McDonald's Coffee story is a lesson in the power of corporate propaganda. McDonalds coffee was heated to 180 degrees so that it would be hot 5-10 minutes after you left the drive through. The woman who dropped her coffee had her labia fused from the heat and originally only asked McDonald's to pay for her medical bills. McDonalds refused and she ended up getting a huge settlement for their negligence. You'll see people parroting McDonald's propaganda about how Americans are sue happy and too dumb to realize that coffee is hot to this day. They aren't and this disinformation is intentional so that McDonald's could avoid paying out.
Okay, i am confused here. Google tells me that 180°F is about 83°C, which is a perfectly normal temperature for a beverage made by boiling water? Do you not make tea in the US?
When i make tea, i heat the water in a water cooker until it boils, which means it is at nearly 100°C (212°F!) when i pour it in the can. 2 minutes later in an isolating can, the tea is done and almost certainly still at a temperature of 80°C or more. Coffee is also made by boiling water, so why is 83°C too hot? That is absolutely i temperature i would expect my coffee to have.
I assume you did not mean 180°C, because you would need some serious pressure to get water (or coffee) to that temperature.
And of course, the paying medical bills thing is another uniquely american thing.
The difference in burn times between 80C and 90C is significant and the woman got third degree burns. Corporations used this case to push tort reform with the new Republican majority house. It's just a history lesson if you want to learn it.
On December 04 2021 13:56 BrTarolg wrote: ...Other than that, you just have to do and get results. Academics are mostly bunk to me, credentials mean nothing in trading. If they were good enough to beat the market, they would be doing it (shoutout to Jim Simons)
Academically-based investors choose a balance between the most likely investment portfolio to outperform the market based on the data, the one they perceive as best fit to their personal situation given all information available to them, and the one they can stick with given their personal degree of conviction in it.
It can also mean a simply tilted portfolio, as seen in the Rational Reminder Model Portfolio where the global market is targetted first and foremost with factor-targeting added on.
Again, before investing in anything along these lines I'd suggest anyone do their own research and fully understand these. There's a reason I mentioned them being hard to stick to. By investing in these types of portfolios you are choosing to be different. That can be quite hard to do if you are simultaneously comparing to the daily performance of a 500-stock single country-focused or 100-stock sector-focused portfolio like so many other investors.
Factors are generally how many institutions trade. Not just reading graphs or working off the latest news headlines.
On December 04 2021 04:09 Emnjay808 wrote: $AMC is looking good to get into. Exited my position months earlier this year with amazing gains (technically it was a pump n dump). Looking to get back in.
$NIO is also a good buy if ur looking for something long.
Edit: not financial advice
Is there a reason people include this not financial advice thing? What does this do?
Isn't that just american lawyery stuff where you need disclaimers for everything, because stupid people without any common sense will sue you for stupid amounts of money if you do not have them?
I still distinctly remember a glass door when i visited the US. It was so plastered with "careful, glass door, do not run into it!" signs that you could no longer look through the glass door.
Also the stories of people sueing McDonalds after dropping hot coffee in their own lap. This stuff seems to be core to the american "justice" system, so people try to protect themselves from it with disclaimers. Which makes everything annoying and hard to read.
McDonald's Coffee story is a lesson in the power of corporate propaganda. McDonalds coffee was heated to 180 degrees so that it would be hot 5-10 minutes after you left the drive through. The woman who dropped her coffee had her labia fused from the heat and originally only asked McDonald's to pay for her medical bills. McDonalds refused and she ended up getting a huge settlement for their negligence. You'll see people parroting McDonald's propaganda about how Americans are sue happy and too dumb to realize that coffee is hot to this day. They aren't and this disinformation is intentional so that McDonald's could avoid paying out.
Okay, i am confused here. Google tells me that 180°F is about 83°C, which is a perfectly normal temperature for a beverage made by boiling water? Do you not make tea in the US?
When i make tea, i heat the water in a water cooker until it boils, which means it is at nearly 100°C (212°F!) when i pour it in the can. 2 minutes later in an isolating can, the tea is done and almost certainly still at a temperature of 80°C or more. Coffee is also made by boiling water, so why is 83°C too hot? That is absolutely i temperature i would expect my coffee to have.
I assume you did not mean 180°C, because you would need some serious pressure to get water (or coffee) to that temperature.
And of course, the paying medical bills thing is another uniquely american thing.
The difference in burn times between 80C and 90C is significant and the woman got third degree burns. Corporations used this case to push tort reform with the new Republican majority house. It's just a history lesson if you want to learn it.
There is a Seinfeld episode where Kramer burns himself with a take home coffee and uses the shady lawyer to sue lmao.
On December 04 2021 21:57 farvacola wrote: What makes you think doctor number 1 would have been in trouble in the US?
Fair enough, the certainty was unwarranted. But it would at least be possible to sue, and that possibility introduces an incentive to try and not fuck people. Of course the chances of success in any given case are small and possibly random, which in the end is why I on balance prefer the Euro system. I just wanted to provide some nuance, a lot of my European friends laugh at how Americans sue for things, when that is an absolutely key feature of how the system works there.
Re: the stock market. Can anyone explain how Tesla's market cap is higher than Toyota, Daimler, Volkswagen, GM, and Ford _together_ xp?
It seems likely that in the near future the car market will be 100% battery. It seems extremely unlikely that in that world Tesla will have 100% market share, considering that their market share in the electric car segment is shrinking already ><.
If the profits from selling all the fossil cars are worth x, why do people expect the profits from selling some fraction less than 1 of all electric cars to be worth many times x??
Fair enough, KlaCkoN, I agree; the litigious nature of the US system has some often unaccounted-for value. Though as Blitzkrieg0 pointed out, tort reform has chipped away at some of that value and in many states, holding doctors and providers accountable for mistakes is very difficult, if not impossible.
On December 05 2021 02:30 KlaCkoN wrote: Re: the stock market. Can anyone explain how Tesla's market cap is higher than Toyota, Daimler, Volkswagen, GM, and Ford _together_ xp?
We're in a bubble caused by several decades of aggressively accommodating monetary policy, pushed to the extreme by the prospect of a pandemic-driven economic downturn, leading to generally absurd valuations across the board but especially in companies (and other tradeable assets e.g. crypto) that were able to exploit speculative feedback loops to quickly multiply their market value.
You're barking up the wrong tree in trying to explain it using future market prospects because there is no such explanation that explains the price.
Who could have predicted that printing so much money with near 0 interest rates, bailing out failed companies who dont turn a profit could cause bubbles and inflation. Its unheard of.
Jokes aside, sometimes speculation needs to meet reality.
On December 04 2021 21:57 farvacola wrote: What makes you think doctor number 1 would have been in trouble in the US?
Fair enough, the certainty was unwarranted. But it would at least be possible to sue, and that possibility introduces an incentive to try and not fuck people. Of course the chances of success in any given case are small and possibly random, which in the end is why I on balance prefer the Euro system. I just wanted to provide some nuance, a lot of my European friends laugh at how Americans sue for things, when that is an absolutely key feature of how the system works there.
Re: the stock market. Can anyone explain how Tesla's market cap is higher than Toyota, Daimler, Volkswagen, GM, and Ford _together_ xp?
It seems likely that in the near future the car market will be 100% battery. It seems extremely unlikely that in that world Tesla will have 100% market share, considering that their market share in the electric car segment is shrinking already ><.
If the profits from selling all the fossil cars are worth x, why do people expect the profits from selling some fraction less than 1 of all electric cars to be worth many times x??
Because Tesla changed the entire dynamic of what a vehicle is and what can be achieved with it. Tesla introduced the idea that a car can be patched and fixed in real time via a software fix. Whenever one drives a Tesla it gathers data that the company uses to better it's networks etc.
It also helps that Tesla has the most data of all vehicle companies combined, even more than Google's Waymo. It has the charging network, it also has entered the energy market, and now the Insurance industry.
That is why it is worth more that Ford, or Toyota(which royally screwed up betting against EV's), and GM. There is a guy called Munro who is a retired Ford Engineer who has a YouTube channel who car makers seek out to review their vehicles. Watch the vid where he tries out the Ford self driving.... he is tense the entire drive and brutally honest.
On December 04 2021 13:56 BrTarolg wrote: If they were good enough to beat the market, they would be doing it (shoutout to Jim Simons)
Realized I should address this latter part as well - Jim Simons, and his Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund were indeed pretty incredible.
There's a video on that here:
and as Ben Felix stated in a response to a youtube comment on that same video:
The Medallion Fund trades on what their systems believe to be mispricings. Based on their track record it seems that these mispricings do exist. However, there are not an infinite amount of mispricings to exploit. If they continued to push their strategies to deploy more capital they would eventually hit a hard limit and their returns would likely suffer. Further evidence of this is the fact that they have launched other funds with different systems which have done alright but nowhere near what Medallion has done. Another example of this problem is Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) which is probably also worth covering in a video eventually. They had a beautiful trade they was making them a lot of money, but they kept taking capital until they had to find new trades that ended up blowing up in their faces and nearly collapsed the financial system.
The mispricings (or factors) found by academics, however, were found to be systematic, persistent, pervasive, investable, and intuitive...
...altogether explaining more than 90 percent of the variation of returns of diversified portfolios.
Tesla is a bubble but bubbles tend to inflate. Their whole thing is that they're not a car company, they're a futurism visionary company with their fingers in car manufacture, AI, batteries, charging, crypto, and a bunch of other things. But when diversification isn't generally a strength of a company, most successful companies focus on one thing and do it well. Tesla loses money on all these other things they do that they claim make them a tech company. Ford could lose money on solar batteries if it wanted to but I don't know that anyone would value them more for doing so.
Well Ford also only makes 2 models, and has a debt of over $140 billion.... So the only thing keeping them afloat is their Pickup line. The Mustang has long lost its premium identity to other brands.
On December 05 2021 12:50 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Well Ford also only makes 2 models, and has a debt of over $140 billion.... So the only thing keeping them afloat is their Pickup line. The Mustang has long lost its premium identity to other brands.
Fiesta and Focus seem to be doing plenty well here in Europe. I just bought a Ford Puma, and the Kuga seems decent. That seems like more than 2 models without even counting pickups.
Electric Vehicles might (no guarantees) be the future, but gasoline is still the present and Ford seems to be doing plenty well. The debt is high, but Ford's making a profit despite interest and repayment on it.
I understand the future potential and charisma of Elon Musk selling its futurism. But it's 500% hype. Amazon led the way in this type of business model. But it isn't an easy one to follow, and I suspect the Tesla bubble will crash long before their car business becomes profitable.
Jim Cramer must have done TWO lines in the bathroom when he got this news.
The U.S. Justice Department has launched an expansive criminal investigation into short selling by hedge funds and research firms, scrutinizing their symbiotic relationships and hunting for signs that they improperly coordinated trades or broke other laws to profit, according to people familiar with the matter.
The probe, run by the department’s fraud section with federal prosecutors in Los Angeles, is digging into how hedge funds tap into research and set up their bets, especially in the run-up to publication of reports that move stocks.
Authorities are prying into financial relationships between hedge funds and researchers, and hunting for signs that money managers sought to engineer startling stock drops or engaged in other abuses, such as insider trading, said two of the people, asking not to be named because the inquiries are confidential.
Underscoring the inquiry’s sweep, federal investigators are examining trading in at least several dozen stocks, including well-known short targets such as Luckin Coffee Inc., Banc of California Inc., Mallinckrodt Plc and GSX Techedu Inc. And they’re scrutinizing the involvement of about a dozen or more firms -- though it’s not clear which ones, if any, may emerge as targets of the probe. Toronto-based Anson Funds and anonymous researcher Marcus Aurelius Value are among firms involved in the inquiry, the people said. Other prominent firms that circulated research on stocks under scrutiny include Carson Block’s Muddy Waters Capital and Andrew Left’s Citron Research.
The U.S. probe opens yet another front in an already treacherous era for those who try to profit on stock drops. Some bearish funds threw in the towel as government stimulus buoyed prices during the pandemic. That pressure intensified as retail investors organized counterattacks on popular short targets, bidding up shares to inflict losses on hedge funds this year. By late January, Citron vowed to give up short-selling research and focus on long bets.
Meanwhile, companies criticized by short sellers have become increasingly bold in firing back, sometimes launching legal battles even as they face government probes that ultimately support short sellers’ theses. A number of corporate executives have been hoping U.S. authorities might help to further shift the focus to investors’ tactics.
Still, successfully bringing charges against short sellers could be challenging, given that betting against companies and publishing research believed to be accurate is lawful and even beneficial for markets. So far, nobody has been accused of wrongdoing, and authorities may ultimately decide not to pursue charges.
Government attorneys are trying to determine whether short sellers engaged in some form of deception -- say, by misleading the public about their financing of what appears to be independent research, violating confidentiality agreements with authors, or orchestrating stock plunges to panic shareholders and exacerbate selling.
Spokespeople for the Justice Department and Muddy Waters declined to comment, and there was no response to messages sent to Anson Funds and Aurelius.
An attorney for Citron said he’s aware of an industry probe but that it’s routine for U.S. investigators to open and close cases. He expressed doubt that their theories would be borne out.
That's a bit exaggerated. I mean sure, they're hemorrhaging billions of dollars on highly questionable business ideas, but look at how high their valuation is! They could raise more billions by tapping the capital market again and again and again.
EPT
