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Trading/Investing Thread - Page 100

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LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
March 07 2022 11:32 GMT
#1981
European natural gas appears to be the new GME.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
3FFA
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States3931 Posts
March 08 2022 01:16 GMT
#1982
On March 04 2022 01:16 LegalLord wrote:
...I think pressures are inflationary and nothing will be done about inflation any time soon. I kinda wish I had more gold right now, but I don't think a gold position larger than what I have would have been a prudent choice either since stocks are probably better in "the long run" as an asset class.


Academic evidence found that unless you're investing for multiple generations worth of family wealth, gold is pretty much a non-starter. It works well as an inflation hedge over multiple centuries. Anything less than that, nope.

Managed Futures such as found in the ETF KMLM, however, that's one of the best types of inflation hedges. KMLM is also one of the only proper funds for managed futures accessible to ordinary retail investors. Usually that strategy has been reserved for accredited investors only.
"As long as it comes from a pure place and from a honest place, you know, you can write whatever you want."
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
March 08 2022 02:30 GMT
#1983
On March 08 2022 10:16 3FFA wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 04 2022 01:16 LegalLord wrote:
...I think pressures are inflationary and nothing will be done about inflation any time soon. I kinda wish I had more gold right now, but I don't think a gold position larger than what I have would have been a prudent choice either since stocks are probably better in "the long run" as an asset class.


Academic evidence found that unless you're investing for multiple generations worth of family wealth, gold is pretty much a non-starter. It works well as an inflation hedge over multiple centuries. Anything less than that, nope.

Managed Futures such as found in the ETF KMLM, however, that's one of the best types of inflation hedges. KMLM is also one of the only proper funds for managed futures accessible to ordinary retail investors. Usually that strategy has been reserved for accredited investors only.


https://etfdb.com/etf/KMLM/#holdings

How are 62% short term treasuries and 20% dollar a good inflation hedge?

The strength of gold is rather that you can have something at hand when you can't access digitally stored assets, which may happen at the flick of a pen.

Vienna philharmonics (plat, gold, silver) are now sold out at our national bank which mints them but not on eurobullion. Yet.
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4329 Posts
March 08 2022 12:06 GMT
#1984
Gold should continue to perform well due to the inflation situation.Petrol prices just hit a record high here today, natural gas which they use to make fertilisers also going vertical and trade sanctions on Russia which is a huge food producer which all combine for higher food prices.See wheat futures right now.

I’ll be hoping to exit my gold mining stock positions within next two weeks - we are looking to build a steel framed kit home on a country block I own.Outright no mortgage.We are leaving the city.The cost of the home has increased 20% in the past 3 months with further rises in June so I’d rather pay it now before it rises again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
Emnjay808
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States10655 Posts
March 08 2022 20:31 GMT
#1985
Cramer recommends $PG and now it’s starting to dive. That’s an interesting talent
Skol
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9858 Posts
March 08 2022 20:55 GMT
#1986
My pick of the week is VET on TSX.

They went up a lot, but their earnings report a couple days ago is insane. Their forecast is 1.9bil FCF in 2022 (which they already have a lot hedged), is conservative if anything. On a company under 5bil market cap.

Really smart management too, natural prices won't just magically drop, its going to be transitory pains for a few years. This is a 10bil company within 1 year imo.

As disclaimer, I own a 225k position. I trimmed my SU position by 50% at 39. Rest of portfolio is VOO & Shaw. Looking to sell Shaw at some point in the next half year as I look for a good TQQQ entry.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
March 08 2022 22:26 GMT
#1987
On March 07 2022 20:32 LegalLord wrote:
European natural gas appears to be the new GME.

Or maybe nickel. Commodities are all pretty insane right now, naturally.
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13926 Posts
March 08 2022 23:37 GMT
#1988
On March 09 2022 05:31 Emnjay808 wrote:
Cramer recommends $PG and now it’s starting to dive. That’s an interesting talent

Going the opposite on Cramer is probably more profitable than any other index fund.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
March 09 2022 00:56 GMT
#1989
On March 09 2022 08:37 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2022 05:31 Emnjay808 wrote:
Cramer recommends $PG and now it’s starting to dive. That’s an interesting talent

Going the opposite on Cramer is probably more profitable than any other index fund.


There was talk about setting up an inverse Cramer ETF at some point. I wonder if that ever happened.
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42674 Posts
March 09 2022 01:20 GMT
#1990
On March 09 2022 09:56 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2022 08:37 Sermokala wrote:
On March 09 2022 05:31 Emnjay808 wrote:
Cramer recommends $PG and now it’s starting to dive. That’s an interesting talent

Going the opposite on Cramer is probably more profitable than any other index fund.


There was talk about setting up an inverse Cramer ETF at some point. I wonder if that ever happened.

It exists. The problem is when he says to buy something you’d have to short it if you didn’t already own it to sell. Higher transactional costs.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
March 09 2022 13:15 GMT
#1991
--- Nuked ---
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-03-09 18:00:10
March 09 2022 17:53 GMT
#1992
Quite the long shot assumption, but OPEC coming out of the woodworks here with increased production means they're going to hit the US dollar and the inflation the US admin hoped for.

US pursuing inflation while BRICS campaign for deflation. End goal? Negative rates on treasuries, perhaps.

My guess is that it's going to be a bad thing for stonks. Otherwise I don't see why oil producing countries would start to load up on dollars right now.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
March 09 2022 18:10 GMT
#1993
OPEC+, US producers, and everyone else have been very clear what they're about: they're going to slow-roll this production increase no matter what happens, and milk it for every penny because they need to make back the money they lost over 2020 and compensate for the years and years of poor prospects on the oil market before that. Conversely, US government wants lower prices on energy because the economy kind of sucks, but don't call it a recession, and high energy prices are going to broadly impact a return to the desired level of economic activity.

I broadly expect further measures that try to keep industrial activity up despite the headwinds of higher costs, which will look like a mix of inflation, reserve releases, and price controls. The only meaningful way to stop this oil price growth is to increase interest rates, but I don't think that's likely to happen, so we're going to take panicked half-measures down the inflationary spiral.

Looks like commodities have kind of quieted down. That's just from the speculative activities; nothing is actually in short supply yet. We'll see what happens when shortages become real.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 10 2022 18:22 GMT
#1994
Rivian's earnings are this afternoon.

Electric truck startup Rivian Automotive will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday afternoon. Trading in the stock following the report should be wild. Investors better buckle up.

Wall Street is looking for a loss of about $2 a share in the quarter from $64 million in sales.

Sales and earnings, however, don’t matter all that much right now. Rivian (ticker: RIVN) just started shipping vehicles. Investors and analysts will be more interested in the production ramp-up at the company’s facility in Illinois and any guidance for first-quarter and full-year deliveries.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-03-10 22:41:07
March 10 2022 21:53 GMT
#1995
They just posted their financial for this quarter. Holy shit it is bad.

Our net loss for Q4 2021 was $(2,461) million as compared to $(353) million for the
same period last year. The increased losses, as compared to Q4 2020, were due
primarily to the higher operating losses discussed above. For fiscal year 2021, we
recorded a net loss of $(4,688) million as compared to $(1,018) million in 2020.


Over the course of fiscal year 2022, we plan to remain focused on ramping up production of both the R1 and RCV lines in Normal, as well as investing in our technology and product portfolio for future growth. We believe that throughout 2022, the supply chain will be a fundamental limiting factor in our total output for the Normal Factory and that our manufacturing equipment and processes would have the ability to produce enough vehicles to deliver over 50,000 vehicles across our R1 and RCV platforms in 2022 if we were not constrained by our supply chain. Our confidence comes from the demonstrated performance of our processes and equipment which is in line with our expectations. Despite this, due to the supply chain constraints currently visible to us, we believe we will have sufficient parts and materials to produce 25,000 vehicles across our R1 and RCV platforms in 2022. We continue to work with suppliers and look for engineered solutions to help us combat any anticipated supply chain issues.


edit:


yea.... they are refusing.

Link
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
3FFA
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States3931 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-03-13 22:11:27
March 13 2022 22:08 GMT
#1996
On March 08 2022 11:30 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2022 10:16 3FFA wrote:
On March 04 2022 01:16 LegalLord wrote:
...I think pressures are inflationary and nothing will be done about inflation any time soon. I kinda wish I had more gold right now, but I don't think a gold position larger than what I have would have been a prudent choice either since stocks are probably better in "the long run" as an asset class.


Academic evidence found that unless you're investing for multiple generations worth of family wealth, gold is pretty much a non-starter. It works well as an inflation hedge over multiple centuries. Anything less than that, nope.

Managed Futures such as found in the ETF KMLM, however, that's one of the best types of inflation hedges. KMLM is also one of the only proper funds for managed futures accessible to ordinary retail investors. Usually that strategy has been reserved for accredited investors only.


https://etfdb.com/etf/KMLM/#holdings

How are 62% short term treasuries and 20% dollar a good inflation hedge?

ETFdb isn't able to properly show the true full allocation of the fund. Partly due to the complexity of the instruments.

Managed Futures have the following advantages:
Long-term positive historical returns of a similar magnitude to equities
Very low correlations to equities and other global asset classes;
Strong historical performance during equity bear markets.


[image loading]


For most investors, a 5–15% allocation to managed futures may offer a good balance of diversification and volatility. Over the long term, the volatility of most managed futures strategies will be closer to that of equities than that of core bonds, and this size of allocation generally may be enough to “move the needle” positively in most portfolio allocations.

Source: https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/managed-futures-strategies-inside-the-black-box/

Holdings as shown by Interactive Brokers (again, not the full picture and only shows how complex this is) :
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
[image loading]


I think one can get a sense for why these strategies were considered too complex for retail investors to even have proper access to explanations of how Managed Futures work.
"As long as it comes from a pure place and from a honest place, you know, you can write whatever you want."
nakajima.minoru
Profile Joined March 2022
3 Posts
March 17 2022 11:16 GMT
#1997
--- Nuked ---
Emnjay808
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
United States10655 Posts
March 22 2022 16:18 GMT
#1998
Boss is saying that all PG items is gonna skyrocket. Gonna really test the loyalty of their customers. I get that PG is THE consumer staple brand but some of the price increases I’ve been hearing are ridiculous. I guess we’re seeing inflation first hand now
Skol
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
March 22 2022 18:29 GMT
#1999
We've been seeing inflation first-hand for a while now; it's just finally affecting the "basket of goods chosen to make inflation look small" price index.

P&G in particular probably has a lot of petroleum-based products. Took a quick look at the ingredients in my dish & laundry detergent; they back that up in that they're full of all forms of oil derivatives. Household goods like that usually are. Of course, there's all sorts of raw materials that are going to be in short supply beyond just oil.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4329 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-03-23 10:53:36
March 23 2022 10:45 GMT
#2000
On March 23 2022 01:18 Emnjay808 wrote:
Boss is saying that all PG items is gonna skyrocket. Gonna really test the loyalty of their customers. I get that PG is THE consumer staple brand but some of the price increases I’ve been hearing are ridiculous. I guess we’re seeing inflation first hand now

The other manufacturers will be raising prices as well.Plus the price of diesel for transporting pushing everything up.

A few pages back I posted the wheat futures chart going basically vertical.The worlds top wheat exporter is Russia, who have implemented a partial ban on exports (To ex-soviet countries) and are under economic and trade sanctions.

Ukraine itself is a top 10 wheat exporter and has implemented a complete ban on wheat and other cereal exports.
See : https://time.com/6156160/ukraine-bans-wheat-exports/

Hopefully the situation can turn around, food and energy inflation hurts the poorest most.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
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