EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 100
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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3FFA
United States3931 Posts
On March 04 2022 01:16 LegalLord wrote: ...I think pressures are inflationary and nothing will be done about inflation any time soon. I kinda wish I had more gold right now, but I don't think a gold position larger than what I have would have been a prudent choice either since stocks are probably better in "the long run" as an asset class. Academic evidence found that unless you're investing for multiple generations worth of family wealth, gold is pretty much a non-starter. It works well as an inflation hedge over multiple centuries. Anything less than that, nope. Managed Futures such as found in the ETF KMLM, however, that's one of the best types of inflation hedges. KMLM is also one of the only proper funds for managed futures accessible to ordinary retail investors. Usually that strategy has been reserved for accredited investors only. | ||
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Vivax
22089 Posts
On March 08 2022 10:16 3FFA wrote: Academic evidence found that unless you're investing for multiple generations worth of family wealth, gold is pretty much a non-starter. It works well as an inflation hedge over multiple centuries. Anything less than that, nope. Managed Futures such as found in the ETF KMLM, however, that's one of the best types of inflation hedges. KMLM is also one of the only proper funds for managed futures accessible to ordinary retail investors. Usually that strategy has been reserved for accredited investors only. https://etfdb.com/etf/KMLM/#holdings How are 62% short term treasuries and 20% dollar a good inflation hedge? The strength of gold is rather that you can have something at hand when you can't access digitally stored assets, which may happen at the flick of a pen. Vienna philharmonics (plat, gold, silver) are now sold out at our national bank which mints them but not on eurobullion. Yet. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4355 Posts
I’ll be hoping to exit my gold mining stock positions within next two weeks - we are looking to build a steel framed kit home on a country block I own.Outright no mortgage.We are leaving the city.The cost of the home has increased 20% in the past 3 months with further rises in June so I’d rather pay it now before it rises again. | ||
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
They went up a lot, but their earnings report a couple days ago is insane. Their forecast is 1.9bil FCF in 2022 (which they already have a lot hedged), is conservative if anything. On a company under 5bil market cap. Really smart management too, natural prices won't just magically drop, its going to be transitory pains for a few years. This is a 10bil company within 1 year imo. As disclaimer, I own a 225k position. I trimmed my SU position by 50% at 39. Rest of portfolio is VOO & Shaw. Looking to sell Shaw at some point in the next half year as I look for a good TQQQ entry. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On March 07 2022 20:32 LegalLord wrote: European natural gas appears to be the new GME. Or maybe nickel. Commodities are all pretty insane right now, naturally. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/fUKHuFn.png) | ||
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Sermokala
United States14047 Posts
On March 09 2022 05:31 Emnjay808 wrote: Cramer recommends $PG and now it’s starting to dive. That’s an interesting talent Going the opposite on Cramer is probably more profitable than any other index fund. | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On March 09 2022 08:37 Sermokala wrote: Going the opposite on Cramer is probably more profitable than any other index fund. There was talk about setting up an inverse Cramer ETF at some point. I wonder if that ever happened. | ||
KwarK
United States43203 Posts
On March 09 2022 09:56 Blitzkrieg0 wrote: There was talk about setting up an inverse Cramer ETF at some point. I wonder if that ever happened. It exists. The problem is when he says to buy something you’d have to short it if you didn’t already own it to sell. Higher transactional costs. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Vivax
22089 Posts
US pursuing inflation while BRICS campaign for deflation. End goal? Negative rates on treasuries, perhaps. My guess is that it's going to be a bad thing for stonks. Otherwise I don't see why oil producing countries would start to load up on dollars right now. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
I broadly expect further measures that try to keep industrial activity up despite the headwinds of higher costs, which will look like a mix of inflation, reserve releases, and price controls. The only meaningful way to stop this oil price growth is to increase interest rates, but I don't think that's likely to happen, so we're going to take panicked half-measures down the inflationary spiral. Looks like commodities have kind of quieted down. That's just from the speculative activities; nothing is actually in short supply yet. We'll see what happens when shortages become real. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Electric truck startup Rivian Automotive will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday afternoon. Trading in the stock following the report should be wild. Investors better buckle up. Wall Street is looking for a loss of about $2 a share in the quarter from $64 million in sales. Sales and earnings, however, don’t matter all that much right now. Rivian (ticker: RIVN) just started shipping vehicles. Investors and analysts will be more interested in the production ramp-up at the company’s facility in Illinois and any guidance for first-quarter and full-year deliveries. Source | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Our net loss for Q4 2021 was $(2,461) million as compared to $(353) million for the same period last year. The increased losses, as compared to Q4 2020, were due primarily to the higher operating losses discussed above. For fiscal year 2021, we recorded a net loss of $(4,688) million as compared to $(1,018) million in 2020. Over the course of fiscal year 2022, we plan to remain focused on ramping up production of both the R1 and RCV lines in Normal, as well as investing in our technology and product portfolio for future growth. We believe that throughout 2022, the supply chain will be a fundamental limiting factor in our total output for the Normal Factory and that our manufacturing equipment and processes would have the ability to produce enough vehicles to deliver over 50,000 vehicles across our R1 and RCV platforms in 2022 if we were not constrained by our supply chain. Our confidence comes from the demonstrated performance of our processes and equipment which is in line with our expectations. Despite this, due to the supply chain constraints currently visible to us, we believe we will have sufficient parts and materials to produce 25,000 vehicles across our R1 and RCV platforms in 2022. We continue to work with suppliers and look for engineered solutions to help us combat any anticipated supply chain issues. edit: yea.... they are refusing. Link | ||
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3FFA
United States3931 Posts
On March 08 2022 11:30 Vivax wrote: https://etfdb.com/etf/KMLM/#holdings How are 62% short term treasuries and 20% dollar a good inflation hedge? ETFdb isn't able to properly show the true full allocation of the fund. Partly due to the complexity of the instruments. Managed Futures have the following advantages: Long-term positive historical returns of a similar magnitude to equities Very low correlations to equities and other global asset classes; Strong historical performance during equity bear markets. ![[image loading]](https://www.pimco.com/-/media/global-assets/resources/education/understanding-blackbox-managed-futures/pimco_education_understanding_blackbox_managed_futures_may2017_fig2.ashx?vs=2&d=20200608175020&hash=EC91175AD647A86A5782B508277C3085A37940D6) For most investors, a 5–15% allocation to managed futures may offer a good balance of diversification and volatility. Over the long term, the volatility of most managed futures strategies will be closer to that of equities than that of core bonds, and this size of allocation generally may be enough to “move the needle” positively in most portfolio allocations. Source: https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/managed-futures-strategies-inside-the-black-box/ Holdings as shown by Interactive Brokers (again, not the full picture and only shows how complex this is) : + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/ZmoCKh2.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/WqKcASH.png) I think one can get a sense for why these strategies were considered too complex for retail investors to even have proper access to explanations of how Managed Futures work. | ||
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nakajima.minoru
3 Posts
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
P&G in particular probably has a lot of petroleum-based products. Took a quick look at the ingredients in my dish & laundry detergent; they back that up in that they're full of all forms of oil derivatives. Household goods like that usually are. Of course, there's all sorts of raw materials that are going to be in short supply beyond just oil. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4355 Posts
On March 23 2022 01:18 Emnjay808 wrote: Boss is saying that all PG items is gonna skyrocket. Gonna really test the loyalty of their customers. I get that PG is THE consumer staple brand but some of the price increases I’ve been hearing are ridiculous. I guess we’re seeing inflation first hand now The other manufacturers will be raising prices as well.Plus the price of diesel for transporting pushing everything up. A few pages back I posted the wheat futures chart going basically vertical.The worlds top wheat exporter is Russia, who have implemented a partial ban on exports (To ex-soviet countries) and are under economic and trade sanctions. Ukraine itself is a top 10 wheat exporter and has implemented a complete ban on wheat and other cereal exports. See : https://time.com/6156160/ukraine-bans-wheat-exports/ Hopefully the situation can turn around, food and energy inflation hurts the poorest most. | ||
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