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On June 29 2024 01:49 Mohdoo wrote: That debate performance was critically bad. It wasn’t the normal old Biden thing. That was a complete and total disaster. It would be dishonest for me to pretend he is a valid presidential candidate.
This situation will be an interesting test as to how much structural control over the party Biden and his team have. There’s no way the party as a whole views him as a good candidate at this point. If he continues to be the nominee, it will mean the party itself isn’t sufficiently independently powerful to dislodge him.
I'm guessing that if they're going to replace Biden with someone else, then Whittmer (for Michigan) and Shapiro (for Pennsylvania) might end up on that short list. I would hope that the people who are truly in charge of making that decision (whether or not they should replace Biden) make whatever decision is the best option for beating Trump. That might still be keeping Biden, or it might end up being the decision to replace him.
Do we think it's likely for primary voters to be pissed off if Biden is swapped out for someone else? As in, "why do I bother voting in the primary, if even the overwhelming favorite and clear winner of the primary can just be swapped out for someone else?" Or would that potential backlash be far less relevant than having a better chance to win Michigan (if Whittmer is on the ticket) or Pennsylvania (if Shapiro is on the ticket)?
I think this is such an obviously unique situation, people would have no reason to be mad. People didn't vote for what they saw at the debate last night. They voted for "he is really old but is still mentally alert enough to do what he needs to do".
Being mad about Biden being replaced would be like being mad about him dying. Its not like someone forced it to happen. If anything they should be mad the party was irresponsible enough to let someone that old be a liability for exactly this situation.
1: I will vote for whoever is the most statistically likely to defeat Trump when I am holding the ballot in my hand. There's no situation where I sit out this election or whatever. Even if Biden shit his pants and asked where his binky is the day before the election, I'd vote for him. Biden doing a poor job at being a good president is still vastly better than Trump trying to do a wide variety of deeply negative things.
2: Supreme court being deeply weaponized and currently the most powerful legislative branch of the government means keeping a republican out of office is necessary.
3: There is no situation where it is acceptable for the DNC to pretend their hands are tied. They make the rules, this is all their gig to run. Do the right thing, do what needs to be done to replace him. If nothing else, Biden is plain and simply a much weaker candidate at this point.
4: I have a hard time with the idea that this was an "off day" for Biden. It was a long debate. He just totally sucked ass the whole time. My honest guess is Biden is generally on some kind of stimulant to keep him sharp and changes in his medical condition have made it less safe for him to take stimulants. Maybe its because he is sick or something. Or maybe he's just too old. I don't know. But I really think the issue is that he can't take stimulants anymore or something.
On the topic of stimulants and whatnot, I think Jon Stewart did a great job at summarizing that situation. Including the quote below:
"Both of these men should be using performance enhancing drugs. Both. As much of it as they can get, as many times a day as their bodies will allow. If performance enhancing drugs will improve their lucidity, their ability to solve problems, and in one candidate's cases, improve their truthfulness, morality, and malignant narcissism, then suppository away. Guess what everybody, they should be taking whatever magical drugs can kick their brains into gear, because this ain't Olympic swimming. You know what I'm saying? Oh, he solved the middle east, but he was doping so it doesn't count. There's gonna be an asterisk next to his presidency. And by the way, if those drugs don't exist, if there aren't actually performance enhancing drugs for these candidates, I could sure fucking use some recreational ones right now because this cannot be real life. It just can't. FUCK."
I totally agree. I would have zero issue with Biden just slamming adderall all day if it meant he did a good job.
On June 28 2024 21:46 Conaing wrote: The media spin is not what decides the election. Neither is a presidential debate. Yes, Trump won very hard. But it may not matter. The election gets decided by just a few voters in swing states. Those there that vote Biden will know that if Trump wins, it may be the last election.
On top of that, the economy is amazing. People may claim they think that the economy is bad. But they are lying when they are saying that. We have the polls that show that GOP voters completely switch their views on the economy in the 3 months after the presidency switches party. The economy is great and people who don't follow politics or independent will know they have it way way way better than during Trump's term. Because then millions of Americans were dying, you weren't allowed to leave your house, many people couldn't find a job, and for those that did, things were very bad because the economy was in the gutter. And if they did turn on the news to watch politics, it was a chaotic clown show because Trump had done something crazy or stupid.
No joke Trump tells, or gaffe Biden makes, will change that. Unless the economy suddenly implodes, anyone who runs vs Trump will win.
The only way Trump becomes president is if he cheats again and this time it works. Which is probably an above 20% chance. People joke about it, but Trump got very close to staying in power in December 2019 and January 2020. The fake electors almost worked. If Pence had done what Trump had said, it was a 50/50 coin toss and Trump stays president. Even though he lost the vote in the electoral college.This can definitely happen this year. Trump and his team had 4 years to figure out how to do it. In fact, that's probably Trump's main way to stay out of jail. He needs the election to be close enough so he can steal it.
So the worry is not that Biden loses. He won't. Even if he is literally dead, Biden wins. The risk is Biden wins and it is close and Trump steals it. Imagine if Biden literally dies a week before the election. And Biden & Harris win by just 2 swing states with a 10 0000 vote margin. The odds of Trump stealing the election from Harris in that case is above 50%.
Oh and let's talk about the elephant in the room: the popular vote. Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 million votes. And that is what ought to determine the election. And if the voters in states like California knew the election was decided by a popular vote, Biden probably wins it by more than 15 or 20 million votes. Most Americans don't vote because they know their vote doesn't even matter because their state is either going red or blue anyway.
You are the only person I've heard describe the US economy and the last few years in this way.
I don't know what else to tell you. All the headlines, and all the opinions I've heard coming from the US recently seem to say the opposite, in fact.
I hope you're right, that would be a huge, awesome surprise.
Id like the economy more if my industry wasnt at possibly its all time ever low point of layoffs and shit and if I didnt google my 2018 apartment and see it went from 1095 for my 2 bed 2 bath to fucking 2000 dollars lmao.
Theres plenty of reasons for average people to feel like this economy is less than ideal for them for sure.
On June 29 2024 01:49 Mohdoo wrote: That debate performance was critically bad. It wasn’t the normal old Biden thing. That was a complete and total disaster. It would be dishonest for me to pretend he is a valid presidential candidate.
This situation will be an interesting test as to how much structural control over the party Biden and his team have. There’s no way the party as a whole views him as a good candidate at this point. If he continues to be the nominee, it will mean the party itself isn’t sufficiently independently powerful to dislodge him.
I'm guessing that if they're going to replace Biden with someone else, then Whittmer (for Michigan) and Shapiro (for Pennsylvania) might end up on that short list. I would hope that the people who are truly in charge of making that decision (whether or not they should replace Biden) make whatever decision is the best option for beating Trump. That might still be keeping Biden, or it might end up being the decision to replace him.
Do we think it's likely for primary voters to be pissed off if Biden is swapped out for someone else? As in, "why do I bother voting in the primary, if even the overwhelming favorite and clear winner of the primary can just be swapped out for someone else?" Or would that potential backlash be far less relevant than having a better chance to win Michigan (if Whittmer is on the ticket) or Pennsylvania (if Shapiro is on the ticket)?
Pissed off probably, but nothing they could do about it once it's done.
But before its done? Biden and his loyalists can definitely bring down the party and lose the 2024 election with their hubris. Continuing the pattern from RBG, Hillary, and Feinstein to the most devastating consequences yet.
On June 29 2024 01:49 Mohdoo wrote: That debate performance was critically bad. It wasn’t the normal old Biden thing. That was a complete and total disaster. It would be dishonest for me to pretend he is a valid presidential candidate.
This situation will be an interesting test as to how much structural control over the party Biden and his team have. There’s no way the party as a whole views him as a good candidate at this point. If he continues to be the nominee, it will mean the party itself isn’t sufficiently independently powerful to dislodge him.
I'm guessing that if they're going to replace Biden with someone else, then Whittmer (for Michigan) and Shapiro (for Pennsylvania) might end up on that short list. I would hope that the people who are truly in charge of making that decision (whether or not they should replace Biden) make whatever decision is the best option for beating Trump. That might still be keeping Biden, or it might end up being the decision to replace him.
Do we think it's likely for primary voters to be pissed off if Biden is swapped out for someone else? As in, "why do I bother voting in the primary, if even the overwhelming favorite and clear winner of the primary can just be swapped out for someone else?" Or would that potential backlash be far less relevant than having a better chance to win Michigan (if Whittmer is on the ticket) or Pennsylvania (if Shapiro is on the ticket)?
Do we even know the procedure for trying to replace Biden this late? If Biden steps down that’s one thing but what if he doesn’t? I’m sure it wouldn’t be the first time they asked him to step aside. He clearly doesn’t care about embarrassing himself or his legacy. Just swapping the incumbent President that won all the primaries might be easier said than done.
On June 28 2024 21:46 Conaing wrote: The media spin is not what decides the election. Neither is a presidential debate. Yes, Trump won very hard. But it may not matter. The election gets decided by just a few voters in swing states. Those there that vote Biden will know that if Trump wins, it may be the last election.
On top of that, the economy is amazing. People may claim they think that the economy is bad. But they are lying when they are saying that. We have the polls that show that GOP voters completely switch their views on the economy in the 3 months after the presidency switches party. The economy is great and people who don't follow politics or independent will know they have it way way way better than during Trump's term. Because then millions of Americans were dying, you weren't allowed to leave your house, many people couldn't find a job, and for those that did, things were very bad because the economy was in the gutter. And if they did turn on the news to watch politics, it was a chaotic clown show because Trump had done something crazy or stupid.
No joke Trump tells, or gaffe Biden makes, will change that. Unless the economy suddenly implodes, anyone who runs vs Trump will win.
The only way Trump becomes president is if he cheats again and this time it works. Which is probably an above 20% chance. People joke about it, but Trump got very close to staying in power in December 2019 and January 2020. The fake electors almost worked. If Pence had done what Trump had said, it was a 50/50 coin toss and Trump stays president. Even though he lost the vote in the electoral college.This can definitely happen this year. Trump and his team had 4 years to figure out how to do it. In fact, that's probably Trump's main way to stay out of jail. He needs the election to be close enough so he can steal it.
So the worry is not that Biden loses. He won't. Even if he is literally dead, Biden wins. The risk is Biden wins and it is close and Trump steals it. Imagine if Biden literally dies a week before the election. And Biden & Harris win by just 2 swing states with a 10 0000 vote margin. The odds of Trump stealing the election from Harris in that case is above 50%.
Oh and let's talk about the elephant in the room: the popular vote. Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 million votes. And that is what ought to determine the election. And if the voters in states like California knew the election was decided by a popular vote, Biden probably wins it by more than 15 or 20 million votes. Most Americans don't vote because they know their vote doesn't even matter because their state is either going red or blue anyway.
You are the only person I've heard describe the US economy and the last few years in this way.
I don't know what else to tell you. All the headlines, and all the opinions I've heard coming from the US recently seem to say the opposite, in fact.
I hope you're right, that would be a huge, awesome surprise.
Id like the economy more if my industry wasnt at possibly its all time ever low point of layoffs and shit and if I didnt google my 2018 apartment and see it went from 1095 for my 2 bed 2 bath to fucking 2000 dollars lmao.
Theres plenty of reasons for average people to feel like this economy is less than ideal for them for sure.
What your personal specific industry is like has absolutely nothing to do with the entire economy. That's like saying that if you take a math exam and the entire class did very well on their test, but you did badly, that the entire class did badly. They didn't. Some industries are always doing worse than others. That sucks if you work in that industry. In fact, right now some industries are going totally away. And that will have a lot of losers. You realize that the fact that the economy is doing well, that doesn't mean poor people are doing well, right? Or that rural people are doing well. Those two things have nothing to do with each other. You can't say the economy is doing bad when it is doing well, but the benefits only go to the top 40%.
As for your apartment cost. You realize that the more money people have in their wallets, the more expensive things like apartments become, right?
Almost all cities in the western world have housing shortages. Especially because the economy is up. More people have jobs in cities compared to before covid. More people need to live in said cities. And many people have the money to pay pretty unreasonable money for apartments. Which drives up prices. Inflation is partially caused because people have more money to buy more things. The opposite is when many people lose their jobs, default on debts, stop spending money on many stuff they'd normally spend money on. And you can go into a deflationary spiral.
People say things are more expensive now than before covid. Of course they are! We had years with high inflation. What people ask for is literal deflation so prices return to preCovid level. But that would destroy the economy. If some left wing populist came in, used deficit spending to return food and gas prices to preCovid levels, it will destroy the economy and cause the largest recession ever. We live in 2024 and soon in 2025. 2018 will never come back. Neither will 2018 prices. Past inflation is priced in, forever. Right now, the US may actually already be below the ideal level of inflation. There is a huge risk of Biden or Trump taking measures too extreme to lower inflation even more, because of optics.
It would have been great if we never had the 2006 debt crisis and never had the Covid pandemic. And that we had 3% GPD growth every year. And 2% inflation every year. With no recession. If that had happened, we would all be way richer and better off in 2024. Even more so if the US never went to fight a war in Iraq and Afghanistan and didn't spend 3 trillion and the US national debt would be 3 trillion USD lower. That would be great! But we don't live in that world. We live in the real world.
On June 29 2024 01:49 Mohdoo wrote: That debate performance was critically bad. It wasn’t the normal old Biden thing. That was a complete and total disaster. It would be dishonest for me to pretend he is a valid presidential candidate.
This situation will be an interesting test as to how much structural control over the party Biden and his team have. There’s no way the party as a whole views him as a good candidate at this point. If he continues to be the nominee, it will mean the party itself isn’t sufficiently independently powerful to dislodge him.
I'm guessing that if they're going to replace Biden with someone else, then Whittmer (for Michigan) and Shapiro (for Pennsylvania) might end up on that short list. I would hope that the people who are truly in charge of making that decision (whether or not they should replace Biden) make whatever decision is the best option for beating Trump. That might still be keeping Biden, or it might end up being the decision to replace him.
Do we think it's likely for primary voters to be pissed off if Biden is swapped out for someone else? As in, "why do I bother voting in the primary, if even the overwhelming favorite and clear winner of the primary can just be swapped out for someone else?" Or would that potential backlash be far less relevant than having a better chance to win Michigan (if Whittmer is on the ticket) or Pennsylvania (if Shapiro is on the ticket)?
Do we even know the procedure for trying to replace Biden this late? If Biden steps down that’s one thing but what if he doesn’t? I’m sure it wouldn’t be the first time they asked him to step aside. He clearly doesn’t care about embarrassing himself or his legacy. Just swapping the incumbent President that won all the primaries might be easier said than done.
If Democrats want to do it, they can, regardless of Biden's desires.
On June 28 2024 21:31 Conaing wrote: Even if he doesn't lock up Clintons, Obama, the Bidens, Comey, Pence, Vindman, Cohen, and whoever else is on his list. Trump can't leave office in 2029.
Pretty sure the other side already went after Cohen, but it's important to remind Democrats also that nobody is "above the law."
On June 28 2024 21:31 Conaing wrote: He has no policy ideas at all. Zero.
Yeah Drumpf doesn't have a single policy idea. And you should know because you've been listening carefully to him for 8 years with curiosity as to what his policies would be as a serious contender for president of the most powerful country on Earth. But he doesn't have policy ideas. Not a single one. I bet when his advisors talk to him they feel like they're talking to a brick wall.
On June 29 2024 01:39 KwarK wrote: It’s weird that you can recognize that the experts all slant left but can’t recognize that this means it shouldn’t be a partisan issue in the first place. If it became right wing doctrine that the earth was flat that wouldn’t make the spheroid earth a left wing position.
You're confusing experts with workers. Most chiropractors will explain easily why you need chiropracty. That doesn't make them experts, but sellers of chiropracty. They would obviously align with anything that perpetuates their own existence regardless of the truth value of issue at hand.
Oblade are you forgetting things like when Trump’s former luggage guy typed up an executive order closing all US military bases in Germany, gave it to Trump, got Trump to sign it, and then gave it to the Sec Def to carry out?
On June 28 2024 21:46 Conaing wrote: The media spin is not what decides the election. Neither is a presidential debate. Yes, Trump won very hard. But it may not matter. The election gets decided by just a few voters in swing states. Those there that vote Biden will know that if Trump wins, it may be the last election.
On top of that, the economy is amazing. People may claim they think that the economy is bad. But they are lying when they are saying that. We have the polls that show that GOP voters completely switch their views on the economy in the 3 months after the presidency switches party. The economy is great and people who don't follow politics or independent will know they have it way way way better than during Trump's term. Because then millions of Americans were dying, you weren't allowed to leave your house, many people couldn't find a job, and for those that did, things were very bad because the economy was in the gutter. And if they did turn on the news to watch politics, it was a chaotic clown show because Trump had done something crazy or stupid.
No joke Trump tells, or gaffe Biden makes, will change that. Unless the economy suddenly implodes, anyone who runs vs Trump will win.
The only way Trump becomes president is if he cheats again and this time it works. Which is probably an above 20% chance. People joke about it, but Trump got very close to staying in power in December 2019 and January 2020. The fake electors almost worked. If Pence had done what Trump had said, it was a 50/50 coin toss and Trump stays president. Even though he lost the vote in the electoral college.This can definitely happen this year. Trump and his team had 4 years to figure out how to do it. In fact, that's probably Trump's main way to stay out of jail. He needs the election to be close enough so he can steal it.
So the worry is not that Biden loses. He won't. Even if he is literally dead, Biden wins. The risk is Biden wins and it is close and Trump steals it. Imagine if Biden literally dies a week before the election. And Biden & Harris win by just 2 swing states with a 10 0000 vote margin. The odds of Trump stealing the election from Harris in that case is above 50%.
Oh and let's talk about the elephant in the room: the popular vote. Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 million votes. And that is what ought to determine the election. And if the voters in states like California knew the election was decided by a popular vote, Biden probably wins it by more than 15 or 20 million votes. Most Americans don't vote because they know their vote doesn't even matter because their state is either going red or blue anyway.
You are the only person I've heard describe the US economy and the last few years in this way.
I don't know what else to tell you. All the headlines, and all the opinions I've heard coming from the US recently seem to say the opposite, in fact.
I hope you're right, that would be a huge, awesome surprise.
Id like the economy more if my industry wasnt at possibly its all time ever low point of layoffs and shit and if I didnt google my 2018 apartment and see it went from 1095 for my 2 bed 2 bath to fucking 2000 dollars lmao.
Theres plenty of reasons for average people to feel like this economy is less than ideal for them for sure.
What your personal specific industry is like has absolutely nothing to do with the entire economy. That's like saying that if you take a math exam and the entire class did very well on their test, but you did badly, that the entire class did badly. They didn't. Some industries are always doing worse than others. That sucks if you work in that industry. In fact, right now some industries are going totally away. And that will have a lot of losers. You realize that the fact that the economy is doing well, that doesn't mean poor people are doing well, right? Or that rural people are doing well. Those two things have nothing to do with each other. You can't say the economy is doing bad when it is doing well, but the benefits only go to the top 40%.
As for your apartment cost. You realize that the more money people have in their wallets, the more expensive things like apartments become, right?
Almost all cities in the western world have housing shortages. Especially because the economy is up. More people have jobs in cities compared to before covid. More people need to live in said cities. And many people have the money to pay pretty unreasonable money for apartments. Which drives up prices. Inflation is partially caused because people have more money to buy more things. The opposite is when many people lose their jobs, default on debts, stop spending money on many stuff they'd normally spend money on. And you can go into a deflationary spiral.
People say things are more expensive now than before covid. Of course they are! We had years with high inflation. What people ask for is literal deflation so prices return to preCovid level. But that would destroy the economy. If some left wing populist came in, used deficit spending to return food and gas prices to preCovid levels, it will destroy the economy and cause the largest recession ever. We live in 2024 and soon in 2025. 2018 will never come back. Neither will 2018 prices. Past inflation is priced in, forever. Right now, the US may actually already be below the ideal level of inflation. There is a huge risk of Biden or Trump taking measures too extreme to lower inflation even more, because of optics.
If the economy isn’t working for people, a ‘good economy’ isn’t much to cheer about or excite you is it? Or a strong political motivator
Dublin certainly has a better economy than Belfast by almost every metric going, but hey in Belfast my partner can move here and have bought a house, have more money available on discretionary spending than back in her home city, etc etc
Squaring the circle then really becomes the challenge, and as you rightly point out housing costs rising above inflation, above wage increases is more the norm across the West than it isn’t.
There are challenges there that need tackled, if some hypothetical political entity actually cracks them they’re on political easy street for decades.
But until someone does, ‘the economy is doing well’ isn’t particularly resonate to big chunks of electorates if it’s not helping them out.
I mean as a Protoss player, if ZvT is in the greatest spot of perfect balance it’s ever been in, I can appreciate it but if PvZ is in an absolutely awful state I’m not going to have a great time playing the game or think the balance team is doing a good job
Housing being unaffordable means there’s a lot of money around to be spent on houses, and you don’t have enough of it. Nobody in rural Appalachia is complaining about housing prices and it’s not because the economy is too good.
On June 28 2024 21:46 Conaing wrote: The media spin is not what decides the election. Neither is a presidential debate. Yes, Trump won very hard. But it may not matter. The election gets decided by just a few voters in swing states. Those there that vote Biden will know that if Trump wins, it may be the last election.
On top of that, the economy is amazing. People may claim they think that the economy is bad. But they are lying when they are saying that. We have the polls that show that GOP voters completely switch their views on the economy in the 3 months after the presidency switches party. The economy is great and people who don't follow politics or independent will know they have it way way way better than during Trump's term. Because then millions of Americans were dying, you weren't allowed to leave your house, many people couldn't find a job, and for those that did, things were very bad because the economy was in the gutter. And if they did turn on the news to watch politics, it was a chaotic clown show because Trump had done something crazy or stupid.
No joke Trump tells, or gaffe Biden makes, will change that. Unless the economy suddenly implodes, anyone who runs vs Trump will win.
The only way Trump becomes president is if he cheats again and this time it works. Which is probably an above 20% chance. People joke about it, but Trump got very close to staying in power in December 2019 and January 2020. The fake electors almost worked. If Pence had done what Trump had said, it was a 50/50 coin toss and Trump stays president. Even though he lost the vote in the electoral college.This can definitely happen this year. Trump and his team had 4 years to figure out how to do it. In fact, that's probably Trump's main way to stay out of jail. He needs the election to be close enough so he can steal it.
So the worry is not that Biden loses. He won't. Even if he is literally dead, Biden wins. The risk is Biden wins and it is close and Trump steals it. Imagine if Biden literally dies a week before the election. And Biden & Harris win by just 2 swing states with a 10 0000 vote margin. The odds of Trump stealing the election from Harris in that case is above 50%.
Oh and let's talk about the elephant in the room: the popular vote. Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 million votes. And that is what ought to determine the election. And if the voters in states like California knew the election was decided by a popular vote, Biden probably wins it by more than 15 or 20 million votes. Most Americans don't vote because they know their vote doesn't even matter because their state is either going red or blue anyway.
You are the only person I've heard describe the US economy and the last few years in this way.
I don't know what else to tell you. All the headlines, and all the opinions I've heard coming from the US recently seem to say the opposite, in fact.
I hope you're right, that would be a huge, awesome surprise.
Id like the economy more if my industry wasnt at possibly its all time ever low point of layoffs and shit and if I didnt google my 2018 apartment and see it went from 1095 for my 2 bed 2 bath to fucking 2000 dollars lmao.
Theres plenty of reasons for average people to feel like this economy is less than ideal for them for sure.
What your personal specific industry is like has absolutely nothing to do with the entire economy. That's like saying that if you take a math exam and the entire class did very well on their test, but you did badly, that the entire class did badly. They didn't. Some industries are always doing worse than others. That sucks if you work in that industry. In fact, right now some industries are going totally away. And that will have a lot of losers. You realize that the fact that the economy is doing well, that doesn't mean poor people are doing well, right? Or that rural people are doing well. Those two things have nothing to do with each other. You can't say the economy is doing bad when it is doing well, but the benefits only go to the top 40%.
As for your apartment cost. You realize that the more money people have in their wallets, the more expensive things like apartments become, right?
Almost all cities in the western world have housing shortages. Especially because the economy is up. More people have jobs in cities compared to before covid. More people need to live in said cities. And many people have the money to pay pretty unreasonable money for apartments. Which drives up prices. Inflation is partially caused because people have more money to buy more things. The opposite is when many people lose their jobs, default on debts, stop spending money on many stuff they'd normally spend money on. And you can go into a deflationary spiral.
People say things are more expensive now than before covid. Of course they are! We had years with high inflation. What people ask for is literal deflation so prices return to preCovid level. But that would destroy the economy. If some left wing populist came in, used deficit spending to return food and gas prices to preCovid levels, it will destroy the economy and cause the largest recession ever. We live in 2024 and soon in 2025. 2018 will never come back. Neither will 2018 prices. Past inflation is priced in, forever. Right now, the US may actually already be below the ideal level of inflation. There is a huge risk of Biden or Trump taking measures too extreme to lower inflation even more, because of optics.
It would have been great if we never had the 2006 debt crisis and never had the Covid pandemic. And that we had 3% GPD growth every year. And 2% inflation every year. With no recession. If that had happened, we would all be way richer and better off in 2024. Even more so if the US never went to fight a war in Iraq and Afghanistan and didn't spend 3 trillion and the US national debt would be 3 trillion USD lower. That would be great! But we don't live in that world. We live in the real world.
What your personal specific industry is like has absolutely nothing to do with the entire economy.
Lmao, yeah, please expect every single person in america to have some sort of weird specific data driven view of the economy that shows it in its best light rather than a view based on their experience with the economy. Totally reasonable.
You realize that the fact that the economy is doing well, that doesn't mean poor people are doing well, right? Or that rural people are doing well. Those two things have nothing to do with each other. You can't say the economy is doing bad when it is doing well, but the benefits only go to the top 40%.
Imagine saying an economy that is disadvantageous to 60% of the populace is amazing. That seems like a warped view of what it means to have an amazing economy.
As for your apartment cost. You realize that the more money people have in their wallets, the more expensive things like apartments become, right?
I mean, I do make more money now than when I had that apartment, but I certainly dont make double and I know what theyre paying people for the job I was doing in 2018 and they certainly aren't making double, lol.
We live in the real world.
People live in their own worlds informed by their subjective experience, no sane rational human being goes "THE S&P500 IS UP, THE ECONOMY IS ROARING I AM MAKING 7.50 AN HOUR AND PAY 1600 A MONTH IN RENT HELL YEAH THE ECONOMY FEELS GREAT!"
Being surprised when people with bad experiences with the economy dont feel the economy is very good is very silly. Human beings are not robots, data only means so much, what people see and feel and experience every day is far more fundamental to their view of the world around them them some jackass on TV asserting that the economy is doing great because stock market happy.
To me the funniest part about the "we finally beat medicare" bit is how it began. Biden argued that if we followed his plan we could tax billionaires to raise $500b over 10 years. Or $50b/year. Which would allow us to:
We’d be able to right wipe out his debt. We’d be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do – child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we’re able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with the Covid. Excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with – look, if – we finally beat Medicare.
We have a $1 trillion+ budget deficit. Can anyone explain how $50 billion would wipe out a $1.6 trillion deficit and still leave a bunch of money to provide child care, elder care, and healthcare for everyone?
On June 29 2024 05:03 BlackJack wrote: To me the funniest part about the "we finally beat medicare" bit is how it began. Biden argued that if we followed his plan we could tax billionaires to raise $500b over 10 years. Or $50b/year. Which would allow us to:
We’d be able to right wipe out his debt. We’d be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do – child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we’re able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with the Covid. Excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with – look, if – we finally beat Medicare.
We have a $1 trillion+ budget deficit. Can anyone explain how $50 billion would wipe out a $1.6 trillion deficit and still leave a bunch of money to provide child care, elder care, and healthcare for everyone?
That’s still a decent wedge of cash to raise.
I don’t think most informed folks think it’ll be sufficient to adequately fix everything, but it’s very much a moral/fairness argument that I think does resonate a lot.
If memory serves it was Warren Buffet who observed he was paying less tax proportionally than a cleaner in his office, and that was ridiculous.
Especially in an environment we’re seeing a lot of layoffs to boot, so the whole ‘don’t tax the rich because they’re job creators’ has slightly less resonance than it would otherwise.
Given Trump’s entire platform is mostly appeals to moral intuition I don’t think it’s unreasonable for the Biden one to do so in one specific area.
I am all for wealth redistribution. The economy and the purchasing power of impoverished people are two every different thing. Especially here in the US. So then let's stop talking about the former and let's discuss the latter. Admitting that the economy isn't working for everyone and that maybe unbridled capitalism isn't good and not truly American would be great. And let's discuss this rationality without either side invoking the S or C boogeyman.
If you are poor in the US, and you are living paycheck to paycheck. You can't complain about the economy and at the same time claim you want deregulated capitalism and full neoliberalism. Or whatever we would call what the US has right now. The economy is doing great. But you got fucked. You don't own a house. You don't have a upper middle class job. You don't have stocks. You don't have a 401(k).
But even for the lower class people. Real disposable income is actually up. Not down. So even that makes no sense. And if you are worried about wealth distribution for this election, there is one guy whose only piece of legislation was to give a tax cut to corporations and the richest people. So that will be real easy. Maybe some American voters should for a change stop voting against their own economic interest come November 2024.
For context: These are both people you would expect to support him unconditionally.
It is literally two washed up failed UK politicians who probably 0.001% of the US voters ever heard about. They support Biden unconditionally? Why? They are no longer in politics and one is from Labour, the other a Tory. Trying to sell a podcast. People who support Biden unconditionally would be dr. Jill Biden and Kamala Harris.
If tomorrow Gavin Newsom and Obama come out and call for Biden to pull out, that's different.
As bad as this debate was for Biden, he isn't going to pull out. Even if the above two people come out and call on Biden to pull out, he won't. Biden isn't a quitter. He never quit before. He isn't going to quit now. The odds of Trump pulling out are way larger than Biden pulling out. Biden will stay in even if he polls 10 points below Trump AND Obama, Clinton, Newsom, or Schiff or Pelosi call for him to drop out. It's not gonna happen. That ship sailed the moment those people didn't enter the race to try to primary Biden.
Let's not forget that Trump was also horrible. Trump lost big time. Biden just lost more.
I am all for wealth redistribution. The economy and the purchasing power of impoverished people are two every different thing. Especially here in the US. So then let's stop talking about the former and let's discuss the latter. Admitting that the economy isn't working for everyone and that maybe unbridled capitalism isn't good and not truly American would be great. And let's discuss this rationality without either side invoking the S or C boogeyman.
If you are poor in the US, and you are living paycheck to paycheck. You can't complain about the economy and at the same time claim you want deregulated capitalism and full neoliberalism. Or whatever we would call what the US has right now. The economy is doing great. But you got fucked. You don't own a house. You don't have a upper middle class job. You don't have stocks. You don't have a 401(k).
But even for the lower class people. Real disposable income is actually up. Not down. So even that makes no sense. And if you are worried about wealth distribution for this election, there is one guy whose only piece of legislation was to give a tax cut to corporations and the richest people. So that will be real easy. Maybe some American voters should for a change stop voting against their own economic interest come November 2024.
For context: These are both people you would expect to support him unconditionally.
It is literally two washed up failed UK politicians who probably 0.001% of the US voters ever heard about. They support Biden unconditionally? Why? They are no longer in politics and one is from Labour, the other a Tory. Trying to sell a podcast. People who support Biden unconditionally would be dr. Jill Biden and Kamala Harris.
If tomorrow Gavin Newsom and Obama come out and call for Biden to pull out, that's different.
As bad as this debate was for Biden, he isn't going to pull out. Even if the above two people come out and call on Biden to pull out, he won't. Biden isn't a quitter. He never quit before. He isn't going to quit now. The odds of Trump pulling out are way larger than Biden pulling out. Biden will stay in even if he polls 10 points below Trump AND Obama, Clinton, Newsom, or Schiff or Pelosi call for him to drop out. It's not gonna happen. That ship sailed the moment those people didn't enter the race to try to primary Biden.
Let's not forget that Trump was also horrible. Trump lost big time. Biden just lost more.
You absolutely can. Whether that’s reasonable is another thing but a huge component of the growth of right wing populism is amongst folks who are enthusiastic adherents of free market capitalism, except when it negatively impacts them. Not just in the States but elsewhere
It’s why right wing populism so frequently ploughs other furrows like social issues, the ‘culture wars’ etc because it helps avoid the aforementioned coming under too much scrutiny.
People want those same structures, only with the US at the top of the tree in everything. A similar sentiment drove something like Brexit in the UK
The problem arises that well, you can’t actually deliver those two things. You can have the rat race and winners and losers, or you can pursue some other way. You can’t have the rat race that’s always going to be rigged in your favour.
Brexit hasn’t delivered on what was promised, and it never was going to, but at least thus far it made folks who voted for it feel good, so there’s no huge flip in that area.
EPT
