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On June 28 2024 20:18 Jockmcplop wrote:
As if fact checking Trump would make a blind bit of difference to his levels of support.
People like Trump not because they feel like he's telling truth, but because his lies make them feel good. You can't fact check that away unfortunately.
This is why early on the idea was that Biden wouldn't debate Trump unless he was in serious trouble. It would only platform his lies, lend him undue credibility as a candidate and put Biden at risk of a regular gaffe (not the meltdown he had last night).
While the public perception wasn't that Biden needed this debate and that's why he asked for it, Biden's campaign could only rationalize this risk if they were already pretty desperate.
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On June 28 2024 20:41 zeo wrote:
Shouldnt you want the candidate for this job to be put in high pressure situations and get grilled on everything and come out on top against their rival? Being ready for everything at a moments notice should be high on the list when you want to be president right?
Not necessarily. Its not a gameshow with a timer. Not to mention the president isnt running anything entirely on their own. They have a huge staff.
Basically other than a nuclear weapon in flight, and likely even in this instance, the president would always have time to gather their thoughts.
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I do know that this debate will be looked upon as a huge moment in the forthcoming election.
The Democrats are giving a huge public show of support to Biden right now, which probably makes people feel nice for the moment, but isn't going to look very smart if/when the election is lost.
Put another way, this is the moment that everyone realizes that Biden is going to lose. The question is, should the Democrats stick with him anyway because they like him and he's the President, or not?
The correct answer is completely obvious from where I'm sat.
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Not going to watch the whole thing but saw a 15 minute 'highlight' video on youtube.
Biden was in bad enough shape in 2020 and has obviously been in further decline since then.
He needs to be in a care home at this stage.
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On June 28 2024 20:41 zeo wrote:
Shouldnt you want the candidate for this job to be put in high pressure situations and get grilled on everything and come out on top against their rival? Being ready for everything at a moments notice should be high on the list when you want to be president right?
No. Because both have been president for 4 years and we know exactly what we can expect from both. I'd relist the insanely good economy and the ton of legislation passed through a dysfunctional bipartisan congress by one. And literally nothing by the other who had a majority in both. Also, crime spree, anti democracy, all his staffers thing he is incompetent and dangerous etc etc.
In a normal world, Trump isn't even allowed to run for president. He should be in jail right now. And even if he wasn't, because he didn't commit all these crimes while president and after leaving office, you don't want a rapist to be president. And he did that, and his business fraud, before 2016. On top of that, someone who the intelligence community cannot give any secret documents because the previous time you did that he stole them and sold them to our enemies, cannot function as president.. Or someone who when he gets into power, you aren't even sure if he will leave again. Someone who tried to literally kill their vice president to stay in power cannot run for president again. By any metric.
Trump might win the election. Trump may lose the electoral college but still win the presidency. Then, Trump may sit in the White House. But Trump will never be acting as president. People forgot that after Jan6 Trump was basically removed from power by Pence & McConnel & Pelosi & general Milley. Trump may be inside the White House. But no one of the legislative will want to talk to him. Trump can try to install his sycophants. Who may try to push legislation for their own benefit. But it will be way worse than his first presidency. Trump will be blocked from pulling the US from NATO. If Trump orders an air strike, the generals will ignore his order if it isn't their idea. And after a few months Trump will completely give up and just focus on staying out of jail and dominating the news. He wasn't really president the first time. And that was when the administrators actually felt duty-bound to carry out White House policy. Back then, people tried to get Trump to act as president, take his daily briefings, do meetings, do his job. But Trump was never interested in that. And now, those in administrative positions will avoid Trump as the plague, afraid of illegal orders. In fact, people will be breaking their oath to the constitution by following Trump's orders. Because Trump will be an illegitimate president by any standard. Trump broke is oath.
People don't talk about this enough. Even if Trump wins. Even if he is president for 4 years. Even if by all expectations, it isn't as extreme as we now may fear. Even if he doesn't destroy the economy with no income tax & tarifs. Even if he doesn't destroy NATO. Even if he doesn't lock up Clintons, Obama, the Bidens, Comey, Pence, Vindman, Cohen, and whoever else is on his list. Trump can't leave office in 2029. Because the moment Trump leaves office, he is going to jail. Either Trump will run in 2028 for a third time, one of his lackeys will, or his son or daughter, or there won't even be an election. This may sound like crazy talk. But that's how dictatorships work. That's why Putin or Xi cannot step down, even if they wanted. They'd be killed, their allies stripped or their wealth, and their family put in jail.
By committing so many crimes, Trump created the same scenario for himself. He said last night he'd rather play golf in Florida instead of run. He can't. He would probably be in jail by now if he hadn't run again. The only way he can play golf in Florida is if he becomes president in January 2025. That's why he is running. He has no policy ideas at all. Zero. And that is why Trump is already talking about a third term or about his family being the next to become president. They have no choice.
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On June 28 2024 21:19 Jockmcplop wrote:
I do know that this debate will be looked upon as a huge moment in the forthcoming election.
The Democrats are giving a huge public show of support to Biden right now, which probably makes people feel nice for the moment, but isn't going to look very smart if/when the election is lost.
Put another way, this is the moment that everyone realizes that Biden is going to lose. The question is, should the Democrats stick with him anyway because they like him and he's the President, or not?
The correct answer is completely obvious from where I'm sat.
I would definitely be more confident as a Republican / Trump supporter than as a Democrat / Biden supporter at this moment in time, but I'm not sure I'd characterize the situation exactly the way you're framing it.
There's a huge difference between Biden clearly losing this debate against Trump, and Biden automatically losing the general election. I expect Trump to pull away from Biden in the polls at this point in time, but that doesn't mean it'll stay that way over the next four months, and it certainly doesn't mean that having only a 45% or 40% or 35% chance of victory is the same as having a 0% chance. It also doesn't mean that swapping out Biden for a replacement would increase the chance of Democrats winning in November.
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On June 28 2024 21:33 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2024 21:19 Jockmcplop wrote:
I do know that this debate will be looked upon as a huge moment in the forthcoming election.
The Democrats are giving a huge public show of support to Biden right now, which probably makes people feel nice for the moment, but isn't going to look very smart if/when the election is lost.
Put another way, this is the moment that everyone realizes that Biden is going to lose. The question is, should the Democrats stick with him anyway because they like him and he's the President, or not?
The correct answer is completely obvious from where I'm sat. I would definitely be more confident as a Republican / Trump supporter than as a Democrat / Biden supporter at this moment in time, but I'm not sure I'd characterize the situation exactly the way you're framing it. There's a huge difference between Biden clearly losing this debate against Trump, and Biden automatically losing the general election. I expect Trump to pull away from Biden in the polls at this point in time, but that doesn't mean it'll stay that way over the next four months, and it certainly doesn't mean that having only a 45% or 40% or 35% chance of victory is the same as having a 0% chance. It also doesn't mean that swapping out Biden for a replacement would increase the chance of Democrats winning in November.
Maybe there's a better way to put it, because Trump is a massive wildcard.
I would put it this way on second thought:
There's nothing Biden can say or do now to gain support for the election. Trump can fuck it up and give Biden the win. That's pretty much how Biden wins. Otherwise its just going to get worse for him between now and the election.
Historical evidence suggests the best way to win over undecided voters is to simply not be from the party that is currently in power. This is doubly true when the election is a particularly contentious one. Biden isn't going to be able to overcome that massive hurdle by mumbling incoherent nonsense. Trump can capitalize on it by shouting incoherent nonsense.
The Democrats need someone with a clear plan who can clearly express that plan in a simple way.
For me, saying 'there's no guarantee that changing candidates will increase the chances of a dem win', is a terrible argument for keeping Biden. Its like saying 'we've lost, so we give up', when there's actually plenty that could be done.
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The media spin is not what decides the election. Neither is a presidential debate. Yes, Trump won very hard. But it may not matter.
The election gets decided by just a few voters in swing states. Those there that vote Biden will know that if Trump wins, it may be the last election.
On top of that, the economy is amazing. People may claim they think that the economy is bad. But they are lying when they are saying that. We have the polls that show that GOP voters completely switch their views on the economy in the 3 months after the presidency switches party.
The economy is great and people who don't follow politics or independent will know they have it way way way better than during Trump's term. Because then millions of Americans were dying, you weren't allowed to leave your house, many people couldn't find a job, and for those that did, things were very bad because the economy was in the gutter. And if they did turn on the news to watch politics, it was a chaotic clown show because Trump had done something crazy or stupid.
No joke Trump tells, or gaffe Biden makes, will change that. Unless the economy suddenly implodes, anyone who runs vs Trump will win.
The only way Trump becomes president is if he cheats again and this time it works. Which is probably an above 20% chance. People joke about it, but Trump got very close to staying in power in December 2019 and January 2020. The fake electors almost worked. If Pence had done what Trump had said, it was a 50/50 coin toss and Trump stays president. Even though he lost the vote in the electoral college.This can definitely happen this year. Trump and his team had 4 years to figure out how to do it. In fact, that's probably Trump's main way to stay out of jail. He needs the election to be close enough so he can steal it.
So the worry is not that Biden loses. He won't. Even if he is literally dead, Biden wins. The risk is Biden wins and it is close and Trump steals it. Imagine if Biden literally dies a week before the election. And Biden & Harris win by just 2 swing states with a 10 0000 vote margin. The odds of Trump stealing the election from Harris in that case is above 50%.
Oh and let's talk about the elephant in the room: the popular vote. Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 million votes. And that is what ought to determine the election. And if the voters in states like California knew the election was decided by a popular vote, Biden probably wins it by more than 15 or 20 million votes. Most Americans don't vote because they know their vote doesn't even matter because their state is either going red or blue anyway.
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On June 28 2024 21:46 Conaing wrote:
The media spin is not what decides the election. Neither is a presidential debate. Yes, Trump won very hard. But it may not matter.
The election gets decided by just a few voters in swing states. Those there that vote Biden will know that if Trump wins, it may be the last election.
On top of that, the economy is amazing. People may claim they think that the economy is bad. But they are lying when they are saying that. We have the polls that show that GOP voters completely switch their views on the economy in the 3 months after the presidency switches party.
The economy is great and people who don't follow politics or independent will know they have it way way way better than during Trump's term. Because then millions of Americans were dying, you weren't allowed to leave your house, many people couldn't find a job, and for those that did, things were very bad because the economy was in the gutter. And if they did turn on the news to watch politics, it was a chaotic clown show because Trump had done something crazy or stupid.
No joke Trump tells, or gaffe Biden makes, will change that. Unless the economy suddenly implodes, anyone who runs vs Trump will win.
The only way Trump becomes president is if he cheats again and this time it works. Which is probably an above 20% chance. People joke about it, but Trump got very close to staying in power in December 2019 and January 2020. The fake electors almost worked. If Pence had done what Trump had said, it was a 50/50 coin toss and Trump stays president. Even though he lost the vote in the electoral college.This can definitely happen this year. Trump and his team had 4 years to figure out how to do it. In fact, that's probably Trump's main way to stay out of jail. He needs the election to be close enough so he can steal it.
So the worry is not that Biden loses. He won't. Even if he is literally dead, Biden wins. The risk is Biden wins and it is close and Trump steals it. Imagine if Biden literally dies a week before the election. And Biden & Harris win by just 2 swing states with a 10 0000 vote margin. The odds of Trump stealing the election from Harris in that case is above 50%.
Oh and let's talk about the elephant in the room: the popular vote. Biden will win the popular vote by 5 to 10 million votes. And that is what ought to determine the election. And if the voters in states like California knew the election was decided by a popular vote, Biden probably wins it by more than 15 or 20 million votes. Most Americans don't vote because they know their vote doesn't even matter because their state is either going red or blue anyway.
You are the only person I've heard describe the US economy and the last few years in this way.
I don't know what else to tell you. All the headlines, and all the opinions I've heard coming from the US recently seem to say the opposite, in fact.
I hope you're right, that would be a huge, awesome surprise.
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The US economy is literally the envy of the world. It is a literal miracle. I'd even give Trump's tax cuts some credit for it. Or everything done by the Bushes. This is a simple fact. The US economy is insanely dynamic and successful. And it is crazy to me to see Americans trash their own miracle economy. It doesn't make any sense. The bounce back after covid, the energy transition, the oil independence, the stock market, the unemployment, it is off the scale.
It is absolutely insane to me that the frame on the economy is that it is bad. Literally makes no sense.
The fuck you have any idea how the post-pandemic inflation affected Europe? And the loss of cheap Russian gas? It is literally an unhinged take to suggest the US economy is bad. Pure crazy talk. Let's not even get started about the Chinese or Russian economy.
The US economic boom is literally keeping the entire global economy afloat. The entire world might have goen into a huge post covid recession if not for the US economic miracle.
The level of analysis for some people literally seems to be along the lines of 'When Trump banned us all from using our cars, and all logistic chains were shut down because half of us were literally banned from even working, the gas price was 1.2 USD/gallon. But now with a booming economy, it is 3.2 USD/gallon. So the economy is bad'.
That's literally a room temperature IQ take.
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On June 28 2024 22:05 Conaing wrote:
The US economy is literally the envy of the world. It is a literal miracle. I'd even give Trump's tax cuts some credit for it. Or everything done by the Bushes. This is a simple fact. The US economy is insanely dynamic and successful. And it is crazy to me to see Americans trash their own miracle economy. It doesn't make any sense. The bounce back after covid, the energy transition, the oil independence, the stock market, the unemployment, it is off the scale.
It is absolutely insane to me that the frame on the economy is that it is bad. Literally makes no sense.
The fuck you have any idea how the post-pandemic inflation affected Europe? And the loss of cheap Russian gas? It is literally an unhinged take to suggest the US economy is bad. Pure crazy talk. Let's not even get started about the Chinese or Russian economy.
The US economic boom is literally keeping the entire global economy afloat. The entire world might have goen into a huge post covid recession if not for the US economic miracle.
You don't need to tell me about post covid inflation in Europe.
I'm from the UK. We've had an absolute nightmare.
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Well, it is probably going to pop during the next presidential term. One ought to actually moderate both the booms and the busts. But it is just really unnerving to hear so many people say the economy is inside a bust during a boom.
Say Biden wins and there is the eventual economic crash during Biden's second term. And the economy actually goes to shit. What are people gonna say then?
The MSM needs to call out ordinary people and the voters way harder. And reflect on their own role in the complete decoupling between reality and public opinion. The economy is one example. But you see the same on crime.
Or the US media should talk a whole bit more about other countries. Because right now Trump has most of his voters convinced that Biden caused inflation. Not that the pandemic caused inflation and Biden fixed it. Because we had covid everywhere. We had inflation everywhere. But we didn't have Biden's economic policies everywhere. Or the economic advantages the US has plus their dynamic nature. Including immigrant labour, a younger work force, and less regulations (for good and bad). You must know what happened when Liz Truss presented her economic platform and how the markets responded.
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On June 28 2024 20:41 zeo wrote:
Shouldnt you want the candidate for this job to be put in high pressure situations and get grilled on everything and come out on top against their rival? Being ready for everything at a moments notice should be high on the list when you want to be president right?
no i think a President doing absolutely anything as president on a moments notice can only ever be a mistake. A President should never be impulsive, acting on the spot or in a moments notice. they should surround themselves with experts in all their fields, be desperate for their insight, and much more often than not take their advice in any policy decision. there are few moments in history that couldn’t wait an hour for thoughtful consideration.
realistically I want very little from my president directly. a president is only as good as the team they bring with them.
honestly I wouldn’t even hate a Trump presidency if his team wasn’t entirely nepotism, cronyism, or corruption looking for more power. if he brought actual experts to cabinet positions instead of his entirely unqualified family and millionaires looking to get richer it would have a strong chance to be something more than an insult to the nation, a real risk to our safety (personally and environmentally,) and a massive cash grab.
but that’s not what will happen and it’s not who trump is.
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United States44242 Posts
The price of petrol in the week before the election is going to be far more relevant than any of this.
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SCOTUS just overruled Chevron what the fuck. Ruling appears to be based on the Administrative Procedure Act so there's probably some legislation you could pass to deal with this but still this literally fucks every government agency and just hands all the power to the judiciary.
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On June 28 2024 23:32 frontgarden2222 wrote:
SCOTUS just overruled Chevron what the fuck. Ruling appears to be based on the Administrative Procedure Act but still this literally fucks every government agency.
Can you please elaborate on what this is and what this means?
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On June 28 2024 23:33 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2024 23:32 frontgarden2222 wrote:
SCOTUS just overruled Chevron what the fuck. Ruling appears to be based on the Administrative Procedure Act but still this literally fucks every government agency. Can you please elaborate on what this is and what this means?
Basically Chevron deference argues that government agencies (like the EPA) are best positioned to interpret federal statutes if they're ambigious, within reason of course. The argument against it is that the courts should handle interpretation of law.
Like everything with this SCOTUS, they're absolutely obsessed with the minutiae and completely willing to nuke common sense laws becaue of it.
So the problem they have appears to be with the Administrative Procedure Act. Fine, legislators can resolve the impending quagmire of Art III judges making decisions they have literally no real idea about by drafting new legislation. But lol lmao have you seen Congress operate? Half this Congress takes open "brides" in some way or form and want to dismantle specific parts of the administrative state that get in the way of the people handing the "bribes".
In the meantime there's probably going to be a huge amount of circuit splits and different regions are going to see differing levels of things people take for granted like water quality or workplace protections.
Which already happens I guess because the administrative state keeps getting kneecapped by every subsequent government. But this is rolling out the welcome mat for some real bad actors to do some real bad actor things when combined with some other recent rulings regarding things like gratuities being kinda OK if they're done after the fact.
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On June 28 2024 23:47 frontgarden2222 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2024 23:33 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 28 2024 23:32 frontgarden2222 wrote:
SCOTUS just overruled Chevron what the fuck. Ruling appears to be based on the Administrative Procedure Act but still this literally fucks every government agency. Can you please elaborate on what this is and what this means? Basically Chevron deference argues that government agencies (like the EPA) are best positioned to interpret federal statutes if they're ambigious, within reason of course. The argument against it is that the courts should handle interpretation of law. Like everything with this SCOTUS, they're absolutely obsessed with the minutiae and completely willing to nuke common sense laws becaue of it. So the problem they have appears to be with the Administrative Procedure Act. Fine, legislators can resolve the impending quagmire of Art III judges making decisions they have literally no real idea about by drafting new legislation. But lol lmao have you seen Congress operate? Half this Congress takes open "brides" in some way or form and want to dismantle specific parts of the administrative state that get in the way of the people handing the "bribes". In the meantime there's probably going to be a huge amount of circuit splits and different regions are going to see differing levels of things people take for granted like water quality or workplace protections. Which already happens I guess because the administrative state keeps getting kneecapped by every subsequent government. But this is rolling out the welcome mat for some real bad actors to do some real bad actor things when combined with some other recent rulings regarding things like gratuities being kinda OK if they're done after the fact.
I like the maybe intentional, maybe Freudian slip "The argument against it is that the courts should handle interpretation of law" because yes, that is exactly the issue, but when phrased that way, it's blindingly obvious that it is the job of thr courts to interpret laws!
Theoretically this should force congress to be more clear, and stop administrations of both parties from engaging in policy ping-pong using novel statutory readings.
But of course since the bureaucracy at places like the EPA overwhelming tilt in one direction, it's clear why the big-government left was fearing this day.
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United States44242 Posts
It’s weird that you can recognize that the experts all slant left but can’t recognize that this means it shouldn’t be a partisan issue in the first place. If it became right wing doctrine that the earth was flat that wouldn’t make the spheroid earth a left wing position.
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That debate performance was critically bad. It wasn’t the normal old Biden thing. That was a complete and total disaster. It would be dishonest for me to pretend he is a valid presidential candidate.
This situation will be an interesting test as to how much structural control over the party Biden and his team have. There’s no way the party as a whole views him as a good candidate at this point. If he continues to be the nominee, it will mean the party itself isn’t sufficiently independently powerful to dislodge him.
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EPT
