US Politics Mega-thread - Page 4228

On June 28 2024 10:53 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Here's my stream of consciousness:

Biden vs. Trump Debate 6-27-24

Issue #1: Inflation/Economy, with Biden answering first.
- Biden talked about how Trump left us in a bad spot, and how Biden has done some things already and listed some future plans. Substance: pretty solid first response. Optics: His voice is a little raspy/quiet, right off the bat.
- Trump responds with how everything was amazing before covid, though he doesn’t list specifics. Substance: it was a fine response. Optics: His tone is more measured, more patient, and less crazy than usual, which I think is a good strategy.
- Biden and Trump each had additional follow-ups. Trump asserted that Biden messed up handling covid. Biden didn’t have very good follow-ups and lost his train of thought, which looks pretty bad. 15 minutes in and it’s not looking good for Biden so far.

Issue #2: Abortion, with Trump answering first.
- Trump lying about Democrats wanting to abort babies after 9 months, and lying about the idea that everyone wanted abortion laws to be left up to the states. Wondering if Biden will call out Trump’s lies, because that’s what Biden needs to do.
- Biden gives a weak response, barely got out the fact that he wants to restore Roe v. Wade, and then Trump responds that Democrats want to kill born babies. Biden having the truth and moral high ground on his side aren’t going to help if Trump keeps getting away with lies and sounding like a normal person.

Issue #3: Illegal Immigration, with Biden answering first.
- Biden brings up the bipartisan agreement and has a decent response, although he stuttered at the end.
- Trump responded with his first personal attack so far, saying that he couldn’t understand what Biden said and that he doesn’t think even Biden understood what he said. Trump made a few on-topic comments, some accurate and some not.
- Biden stuttering and completely on defense, denying what Trump said but not counterpunching.
- Biden weakly calling Trump a loser and a sucker, after they argue over who helped veterans more.

Issue #4: Russia vs. Ukraine, with Trump answering first.
- Trump blamed Biden for Russia’s attack, saying that Putin probably noticed how weak Biden was when it came to Afghanistan and decided to attack Ukraine. Trump also blamed Biden for Hamas’s attack on Israel.
- Biden needs to respond faster and more efficiently; he’s not keeping up with Trump’s assertions, and he’s not putting Trump on the defensive at all.
- Trump makes the case that we wouldn’t need to give Ukraine billions of dollars if Biden were strong enough to deter Putin from attacking Ukraine in the first place.

Issue #5: Israel vs. Hamas, with Biden answering first.
- Biden comes out as extremely pro-Israel, and doesn’t do a great job of explaining how he’d end the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
- Trump accuses Biden of being “like a weak Palestinian”, which is Trump’s worst-landing response so far. The rest of Trump’s debate points have been landing (whether they’re lies or truths), so much so that the moderators haven’t needed to moderate at all, and have been completely silent except to ask questions.

Issue #6: Democracy and the January 6th Insurrection, with Trump answering first.
- Trump dodges the question completely and talks about how our country was fine on January 6th (e.g., “we had a great border”). He ends his answer very early, and Jake Tapper reiterates the question to Trump. Trump attacks Nancy Pelosi. Biden has a great opportunity to land a jab that Trump used to incorrectly blame Nikki Haley, not Nancy Pelosi.
- Biden doesn’t land that jab, but has a pretty decent response that includes how Trump didn’t act quickly enough to stop the insurrection and how he wants to commute the sentences of the insurrectionists.
- Trump called the insurrectionists “innocent”, and then pivots to talking about Seattle and Portland. Trump says other people should be jailed.
- Biden points out that Trump is the only convicted felon around here, which was a pretty good line (especially compared to Biden’s performance so far).
- Trump was just asked if he’d jail Joe Biden or his other political opponents, if Trump wins again (which Trump has said in the past that he’d be justified in doing). He doesn’t answer the question but instead attacks Hunter Biden. Trump also accuses Joe Biden of being a criminal (Trump doesn’t state what crime Joe Biden has committed).
- Biden had a pretty good comeback here, listing a bunch of criminal and moral issues with Trump (molesting women, fraud, cheating on his pregnant wife, etc.).
- Trump denied sleeping with a porn star. I’m confused by this.
- Biden mentioned Trump’s Nazi / white supremacist / racist rhetoric and that Trump’s top officers aren’t endorsing him this time.
- Trump accused Biden of making those things up (they’re actually true though).
- This issue’s back-and-forth is probably Biden’s most successful dialogue so far, although Biden still has a raspy voice while Trump’s voice is still strong (and Trump hasn’t gone crazy with insults and conspiracy theories).

Commercial Break #1

On June 28 2024 11:31 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:


Issue #7: Racial Inequality, with Biden answering first.
- Biden listed some of his accomplishments, such as lowering Black unemployment and lowering childcare costs by half. Biden didn’t give the most sympathetic response possible though, given that the question was primarily “What do you say to Black families who feel like not enough has been done?”
- Trump ignored the question and blamed Biden on inflation several times, which I really hope Biden corrects.
- Biden says that the reason why Trump’s inflation was so low was because of high unemployment and so few jobs created under Trump. Biden could have said a lot more, a lot better.
- No real-time fact-checking by moderators is definitely hurting Biden, as Trump is getting away with countless lies.

Issue #8: Climate Change, with Trump answering first.
- Trump says that Biden lost much of the Black vote, and that law enforcement supports Trump. The question was about slowing the climate crisis, but Trump doesn’t address it at all.
- Biden starts to talk about his climate change progress, but then decides to get baited by Trump’s remarks about losing the Black vote. Biden misses an opportunity here.
- Biden and Trump quarrel over the Paris Agreement and healthcare costs.
- Trump says that Trump has a big heart.

Issue #9: Social Security, with Biden answering first.
- Biden says that making the rich pay their fair share will help keep Social Security solvent. (This is a direct answer to the question asked – how can we keep Social Security solvent.)
- Trump says Biden doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Biden mentions suckers and losers again.

Issue #10: Childcare, with Trump answering first.
- To the question of how childcare will become more affordable, Trump accuses Biden of not firing enough people. Trump rambles for a while with an unhinged answer about how terrible Biden is, which is weird because he was doing totally fine up until now. Trump says our country is doing terrible.
- Biden defends our country and says we’re great. Then, thankfully, he actually talks about childcare.
- Trump has another opportunity to talk about childcare. He doesn’t. He resumes his rant about how Biden is “the worst president in history, by far”.

Issue #11: Fentanyl, Addiction, and Drug Crisis, with Trump answering first.
- Trump accuses Biden of being bought by China. He then says addiction wasn’t a problem until covid occurred. (Reiterating: No real-time fact-checking by moderators is definitely hurting Biden, as Trump is getting away with countless lies.)
- Biden mentions a bipartisan deal to fund medical machines that can reduce these drug/addiction-related issues (I’m unfamiliar with this specific deal).
- Trump then says something about Putin and swapping prisoners.

Issue #12: Age Concerns, with Biden answering first.
- Biden notes that he and Trump are both similar in age, and then Biden lists some of his presidential accomplishments. It would have been stronger if he contrasted his successes with Trump’s failures (comparing unemployment rates, comparing job rates, relevant Biden bills/acts vs. Trump’s lack of relevant bills/acts, etc.).
- Trump notes that he aced two cognitive tests and took physical tests. He said he just won two golf championships, to which Biden appropriately laughed. (Trump notoriously cheats at golf, and his opponents just let him win because his ego can’t take a loss.)
- Biden and Trump are now arguing about golf. Sigh.

Issue #13: Accepting Election Results, with Trump answering first.
- Trump is now saying that he’d accept the 2024 election results *as long as the election is fair* and that violence is not an appropriate reaction *as long as the election is fair*. We all know this means that he won’t accept the election results if Biden wins again, even if it’s a fair election.
- Biden says Trump would team up with Putin against NATO to start World War III.
- Trump says he didn’t want to run again for president, but felt he had to because of how bad of a president Biden is.
- Biden says Trump is a whiner and points out that Trump’s election lawsuits all over the country were rejected because Trump lost fair and square.

Commercial Break #2

On June 28 2024 12:07 NovaTheFeared wrote:
Political futures market Biden odds of dropping out of the presidential race:
pre-debate: 21%
post-debate: 36%

This seems reactionary but it's pretty clear who won the debate.


EDIT: It's continuing to spike, 50% chance Biden drops out?! Either there's a crazy overreaction or people know something this is literally 2.5x predebate levels.

On June 28 2024 12:41 NovaTheFeared wrote:


I also think it's way too high, what it really reveals is that people are flipping out about Biden's performance.