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On June 30 2024 09:24 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 08:04 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:49 KwarK wrote:On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. Biden opted not to run in 2016 for personal reasons and instead they ran Hillary who, despite being a competent and seasoned politician with a decent track record, lost to an old white game show host promising incoherent nonsense. The lesson they took from that was that Biden's personal reasons were a mistake and that they needed to run the oldest whitest man they could find. And that actually worked out decently in 2020. In 2024 the Republicans have come back with their own super old super incoherent white man, older and whiter than before. It would be folly for the Democrats to not use their very oldest white man. Let me see if I'm getting this right. The last Democrat President that was a white man was elected in 1992 and 1996. He was the 3rd youngest President ever. Then they won with a black man twice in 2008 and 2012. By the way, he was also one of the youngest Presidents ever. Then they lost one election and the correct conclusion they should draw is "we can only win with a very very old white man." Ok, sure. Btw, Biden wasn't even their oldest white man in 2020. That would be Bernie Sanders. Bernie was their oldest whitest Jewish man. That's like a whole 4th thing.
Well it's a good thing that the Democrats didn't collectively decide to adopt your strategy of running old white men after they lost to old white man Ronald Reagan or we never would have had 16 years of Clinton and Obama.
Or perhaps they never adopted that strategy and the only reason we're talking about it now is because it's the fashionable thing to do.
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It's almost like the people running the DNC are the Clinton-era Democrats!
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On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place.
but for any democrat in touch with reality, there was an 81% chance Biden would lose 81% of the debate, before it even started. the campaign narrative, from the start, should've been "good, wise, old grandpa", rather than "strong, powerful leader".
i've read the other replays too(communists gonna hate, they seem unable to get over the Bernie fiasco) and i don't see an answer. it's like, form the beginning, all the dems stuck their heads into the sand then hoped and prayed Trump would lose more(due to lawsuits, his lies, his character ...etc), forgetting they'd have to actually prop up someone for the next 4 years.
and now, still with their heads in the sand, they're abandoning ship because ... aesthetic obligations disguised as ethic/moral reasons?.
fucking hell, there's no plausible deniability to be had here; you(dems) all new.
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On June 30 2024 10:16 Husyelt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 04:30 KwarK wrote:On June 30 2024 04:13 Husyelt wrote:On June 29 2024 12:48 KwarK wrote:On June 29 2024 12:22 Husyelt wrote:On June 29 2024 08:57 Conaing wrote:
Rory Stewart is a Tory who ran against Boris Johnson and lost. He is like the Jeb Bush of UK politics. He can go back into Labour? You don't even know who he is, do you? Yeah, they do a great podcast. So does Gary Lineker. But he isn't going to carry England to the Euro 24 victory either. He is doing a podcast. Jeb Bush is also not going to replace Biden as the Democratic candidate, if that's your next point.
This would be as if Jeb Bush and John Edwards had a podcast together. And they asked Rishi Sunak to step down because he is gonna lose to Starmer. And nether Jeb Bush or Edwards ever talked to Sunak or anyone on their staff.
The economy is the economy. Yes, you fundamentally misunderstand. The economy itself is not your own wallet after all your fixed charges. What you are saying is that the supermarket doesn't have enough toilet paper. Because you forgot to buy toilet paper. But actually the supermarket has a ton of toilet paper. It is just you that doesn't have it. So the problem is not to get more toilet paper to the supermarket. Same with the economy. The economy is doing great. It just doesn't benefit everyone the same way. Which in the US has always been true. And which has been a cornerstone of one of the two parties. Remember Reagan's welfare nanny? Remember trickle down economics. Making the economy grow more isn't going to solve any legitimate problems some US voters will have.
Yes, inequality is an economic issue. But it isn't 'the economy'. In a previous episode he said he would love to join in a Labour or Tory government if it was related to a technocratic role. Lots of people would like to be in government. Right but the point is he is happy being more influential on the outside looking in. Im sort of a stan for Rory, I believe he is a dying breed of a "good politician". UK hasnt fully succumbed to the orgy of horror that the US is in right now. Their scandals actually still matter when brought to the publics attention. I’m really struggling to reconcile who you think this person is. He’d love to be in the Labour cabinet but he’s not because he doesn’t want to right now because he’s more influential from the outside with his podcast and also he’s not in the Labour Party and not an MP and also failed in the Conservative Party which makes him the natural Biden supporter and therefore we should listen to his commentary? Am I following correctly? No one has given him the call, but he's in legacy mode. Rory has a goated career tbh, highly check out his work in the middle east. The US offshoot pod is with Anthony Scaramucci & Katty Kay, also very insightful, although in Anthony's case you can defintiely tell he aint going back into politics beyond fundraising and media events
Anybody claiming anything with Scaramucci talking politics is serious and insightful automatically disqualified their opinion.
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On June 30 2024 14:46 xM(Z wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. but for any democrat in touch with reality, there was an 81% chance Biden would lose 81% of the debate, before it even started. the campaign narrative, from the start, should've been "good, wise, old grandpa", rather than "strong, powerful leader". i've read the other replays too(communists gonna hate, they seem unable to get over the Bernie fiasco) and i don't see an answer. it's like, form the beginning, all the dems stuck their heads into the sand then hoped and prayed Trump would lose more(due to lawsuits, his lies, his character ...etc), forgetting they'd have to actually prop up someone for the next 4 years. and now, still with their heads in the sand, they're abandoning ship because ... aesthetic obligations disguised as ethic/moral reasons?. fucking hell, there's no plausible deniability to be had here; you(dems) all new.
Honestly I think you are overestimating exactly how many people, on both sides of the aisle frankly, are in touch with reality. Here's a post I made 5 months ago:
On January 26 2024 10:47 BlackJack wrote:
If I were Biden’s team I would definitely advise him to not have any debates. He did okay at them 4 years ago but who knows what will happen now. You can really only get away with ending sentences by drifting off into mutterings on friendly territory. Besides he already has the perfect excuse - Trump being a danger to democracy and not wanting to give him a platform.
Here's some of the responses I got to that post
Yeah, comparing Trump to Biden and then pretending like Biden is the incoherent mentally deteriorating one is just about the dumbest thing I've heard this week.
In terms of age-related issues and mental deterioration and cognitive/verbal mess-ups, it's approximately a draw, which is why we might as well look at their policies and past presidencies.
There were a decent amount of Democrats that had been drinking the Kool-Aid and actually thought Biden could hang. I'm no nostradamus and yet I could easily predict that Biden would end sentences by drifting off into mutterings. It's fine if you're at a rally and the crowd is going to cheer no matter what. It's not okay at a debate. If anyone was shocked/surprised at the display Biden put on at the debate then I suggest they reflect on where they get their news from and how diverse their feed is. Republicans by and large were not shocked. It's what they have been saying for months.
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On June 30 2024 07:36 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. It's been bizarre to watch. Biden calls for the debate in a desperate effort to boost his significantly worse poll numbers compared to this point in 2020.
This perfectly epitomizes why I've been saying that people shouldn't be overly focused with spring polling, as plenty can happen in the summer and fall to dramatically change how the public views each candidate. The fact that most general election polls in the spring had Biden roughly equal to Trump / Biden slightly lower than Trump, apparently freaked out Biden's team enough for them to think this debate was worth the risk.
I expect Biden to see a drop in the polls over the next two weeks or so, and I think it'll be really interesting to see what happens after that timeframe: do we see a slight recovery for Biden in the polls by weeks 3 and 4 and 5, because news cycles are fast and the public has short memory, or does the likely incoming drop in the polls stay like that through July and into August? The fact that Trump's remaining court cases keep getting pushed back certainly doesn't help distract the public or focus negative attention towards Trump.
For better or for worse, I think if Biden's polling numbers start to recover by the end of July, then I think the DNC is going to stick with Biden for their official nominee. Quite frankly, I think it's pretty likely that the DNC sticks with Biden even if his numbers aren't great anyway. There's a decent chance that Biden also takes a second hit in September's polling, when he either dodges or fails at the second debate that was originally scheduled too.
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On June 30 2024 14:46 xM(Z wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. but for any democrat in touch with reality, there was an 81% chance Biden would lose 81% of the debate, before it even started. the campaign narrative, from the start, should've been "good, wise, old grandpa", rather than "strong, powerful leader". i've read the other replays too(communists gonna hate, they seem unable to get over the Bernie fiasco) and i don't see an answer. it's like, form the beginning, all the dems stuck their heads into the sand then hoped and prayed Trump would lose more(due to lawsuits, his lies, his character ...etc), forgetting they'd have to actually prop up someone for the next 4 years. and now, still with their heads in the sand, they're abandoning ship because ... aesthetic obligations disguised as ethic/moral reasons?. fucking hell, there's no plausible deniability to be had here; you(dems) all new.
I'm over Bernie personally, but I'd probably not be as opposed to supporting him if Democrats gave a shit about people to their left and replaced Biden with him. Unfortunately he's still too favorable towards Israel's ongoing ethnic cleansing campaign against Palestinians for me and not enough for Democrats, so that's not happening (he's also old, but clearly more with it than Trump or Biden).
Beyond that I agree with BJ that you're overestimating Democrats grip on reality when it comes to Biden. Or at least what they can publicly admit and reconcile with their ongoing denialism.
What I said in January:
On January 26 2024 10:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
...
From my perspective, Biden's in trouble and his supporters are in denial. I say it's 55-45 favoring Trump.
More important than what the polls specifically say on a given day is how they compare to Biden's 2020 run against Trump and he's been running ~8-10 points worse for months. Biden barely won in 2020, and just losing half as much support in Michigan as he has nationally, would mean an electoral college loss for Biden.
...
EDIT: Forgot to mention Biden's favorability is worse than Trump's was at this point in 2020 and even more worse than Trump's current favorability.
All of this is still true (and was for the last 5 months), as well as Biden running about the same distance behind Democrats running for Senate in several battleground states, all while dragging down Tester in Montana as well.
Biden's in so much worse shape than he was in 2020 at this point in the race with way less outs. There's still time, but things are not looking good for Democrats for president or the Senate. Especially if they lose Arizona along with WV, and possibly MT
If you watch clips of the lib talking heads immediately after the debate you can see (what appears to be genuine to me) shock. They might have all known Biden could be like that, but they didn't think they'd put him on a debate stage in front of 50,000,000+ people like that (or he'd be oblivious enough to do it to himself). Especially after provoking Trump into the debate in the first place.
DPB's right that they aren't going to replace Biden unless they have to due to him just falling off a cliff medically.
Why DPB and other Democrats/Biden supporters think the next 4 months will be so much better for Biden than the last 8 months I can't say though.
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On June 30 2024 20:00 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 14:46 xM(Z wrote:On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. but for any democrat in touch with reality, there was an 81% chance Biden would lose 81% of the debate, before it even started. the campaign narrative, from the start, should've been "good, wise, old grandpa", rather than "strong, powerful leader". i've read the other replays too(communists gonna hate, they seem unable to get over the Bernie fiasco) and i don't see an answer. it's like, form the beginning, all the dems stuck their heads into the sand then hoped and prayed Trump would lose more(due to lawsuits, his lies, his character ...etc), forgetting they'd have to actually prop up someone for the next 4 years. and now, still with their heads in the sand, they're abandoning ship because ... aesthetic obligations disguised as ethic/moral reasons?. fucking hell, there's no plausible deniability to be had here; you(dems) all new. I'm over Bernie personally
Out of curiosity, why are you over Bernie?
DPB's right that they aren't going to replace Biden unless they have to due to him just falling off a cliff medically.
Why DPB and other Democrats/Biden supporters think the next 4 months will be so much better for Biden than the last 8 months I can't say though.
I never said that the next 4 months will be "so much better for Biden than the last 8 months". In fact, what I've been consistently saying is that the election will most likely come down to a coinflip. Spring polling (for whatever that's worth) agreed with me, and if summer/fall polling end up showing a post-debate dip for Biden that eventually starts to rebalance in 1-3 months, then it'll continue to be a coinflip. If the debate never happened, then staying the course of a coinflip would have also been a reasonable prediction. At no point had I suggested that Biden is going to start doing "so much better" in the polls.
For what it's worth, even if Biden is replaced, I think it'll still be a coinflip between the new candidate and Trump. Maybe the new candidate will have 55-45 odds instead of the reverse, but running an event like this only one time means that neither side can be super confident, even if it's 60-40 or 65-35 in favor of a candidate.
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On June 30 2024 20:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 20:00 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 30 2024 14:46 xM(Z wrote:On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. but for any democrat in touch with reality, there was an 81% chance Biden would lose 81% of the debate, before it even started. the campaign narrative, from the start, should've been "good, wise, old grandpa", rather than "strong, powerful leader". i've read the other replays too(communists gonna hate, they seem unable to get over the Bernie fiasco) and i don't see an answer. it's like, form the beginning, all the dems stuck their heads into the sand then hoped and prayed Trump would lose more(due to lawsuits, his lies, his character ...etc), forgetting they'd have to actually prop up someone for the next 4 years. and now, still with their heads in the sand, they're abandoning ship because ... aesthetic obligations disguised as ethic/moral reasons?. fucking hell, there's no plausible deniability to be had here; you(dems) all new. I'm over Bernie personally Out of curiosity, why are you over Bernie? Show nested quote +DPB's right that they aren't going to replace Biden unless they have to due to him just falling off a cliff medically.
Why DPB and other Democrats/Biden supporters think the next 4 months will be so much better for Biden than the last 8 months I can't say though. I never said that the next 4 months will be "so much better for Biden than the last 8 months". In fact, what I've been consistently saying is that the election will most likely come down to a coinflip. Spring polling (for whatever that's worth) agreed with me, and if summer/fall polling end up showing a post-debate dip for Biden that eventually starts to rebalance in 1-3 months, then it'll continue to be a coinflip. If the debate never happened, then staying the course of a coinflip would have also been a reasonable prediction. At no point had I suggested that Biden is going to start doing "so much better" in the polls. For what it's worth, even if Biden is replaced, I think it'll still be a coinflip between the new candidate and Trump. Maybe the new candidate will have 55-45 odds instead of the reverse, but running an event like this only one time means that neither side can be super confident, even if it's 60-40 or 65-35 in favor of a candidate.
Bernie was a compromise to start with. The potential of him being the nominee/president was enough to keep a sliver of electoralism alive for me (back in 2016).
"Coinflip" (~50:50 and down by ~1-2% nationally) sounds a lot better than it is when you realize Biden was a 9:1 favorite with a 8.5% lead (4:1 with a 9%+ lead at this point in the race) going into an election he won by the skin of his teeth against the same guy in 2020 while citizens were dying by the hundreds or thousands per day from an ongoing pandemic Trump had clearly mismanaged.
Mind you this is up against a 2x impeached, 34x felony convicted, insurrectionist (who wasn't any of those things at this point last time, though he had been impeached once)
Biden/Democrats are in so much more trouble than you/his supporters/Democrats are prepared/willing to accept. This hubris could cost Dems the most important election of their lives and it's clear to anyone that isn't obsequiously supporting Biden imo.
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On June 30 2024 21:00 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 20:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 30 2024 20:00 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 30 2024 14:46 xM(Z wrote:On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. but for any democrat in touch with reality, there was an 81% chance Biden would lose 81% of the debate, before it even started. the campaign narrative, from the start, should've been "good, wise, old grandpa", rather than "strong, powerful leader". i've read the other replays too(communists gonna hate, they seem unable to get over the Bernie fiasco) and i don't see an answer. it's like, form the beginning, all the dems stuck their heads into the sand then hoped and prayed Trump would lose more(due to lawsuits, his lies, his character ...etc), forgetting they'd have to actually prop up someone for the next 4 years. and now, still with their heads in the sand, they're abandoning ship because ... aesthetic obligations disguised as ethic/moral reasons?. fucking hell, there's no plausible deniability to be had here; you(dems) all new. I'm over Bernie personally Out of curiosity, why are you over Bernie? DPB's right that they aren't going to replace Biden unless they have to due to him just falling off a cliff medically.
Why DPB and other Democrats/Biden supporters think the next 4 months will be so much better for Biden than the last 8 months I can't say though. I never said that the next 4 months will be "so much better for Biden than the last 8 months". In fact, what I've been consistently saying is that the election will most likely come down to a coinflip. Spring polling (for whatever that's worth) agreed with me, and if summer/fall polling end up showing a post-debate dip for Biden that eventually starts to rebalance in 1-3 months, then it'll continue to be a coinflip. If the debate never happened, then staying the course of a coinflip would have also been a reasonable prediction. At no point had I suggested that Biden is going to start doing "so much better" in the polls. For what it's worth, even if Biden is replaced, I think it'll still be a coinflip between the new candidate and Trump. Maybe the new candidate will have 55-45 odds instead of the reverse, but running an event like this only one time means that neither side can be super confident, even if it's 60-40 or 65-35 in favor of a candidate. Bernie was a compromise to start with. The potential of him being the nominee/president was enough to keep a sliver of electoralism alive for me (back in 2016). "Coinflip" (~50:50 and down by ~1-2% nationally) sounds a lot better than it is when you realize Biden was a 9:1 favorite with a 8.5% lead ( 4:1 with a 9%+ lead at this point in the race) going into an election he won by the skin of his teeth against the same guy in 2020 while citizens were dying by the hundreds or thousands per day from an ongoing pandemic Trump had clearly mismanaged. Mind you this is up against a 2x impeached, 34x felony convicted, insurrectionist (who wasn't any of those things at this point last time, though he had been impeached once) Biden/Democrats are in so much more trouble than you/his supporters/Democrats are prepared/willing to accept. This hubris could cost Dems the most important election of their lives and it's clear to anyone that isn't obsequiously supporting Biden imo.
Maybe I'll end up being wrong about my coinflip prediction - maybe in September and October, we'll see the polls tilted 70-30 or worse, in favor of Trump. Maybe things spiral out of control over the next few months. And if that happens, I'll have no problem saying that my prediction was wrong. But let's at least agree that my coinflip prediction is not the same as your claim that I "think the next 4 months will be so much better for Biden than the last 8 months", okay? I didn't say that, and I don't believe that.
With Biden's terrible debate performance, his chances of winning are surely worse now than they were a week ago. I said that I expect Biden to dip in the polls, and that I wonder if he'll recover from it; I'd hardly call that "hubris".
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Northern Ireland23799 Posts
On June 30 2024 17:52 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2024 14:46 xM(Z wrote:On June 30 2024 06:45 BlackJack wrote:On June 30 2024 06:36 xM(Z wrote:
why your dems are fucking Biden so hard?.
i get that your progressives(socialists/communists) hate him, but still ... it seems fucked, it looks like dems main concern is aesthetics. Because the “let’s not state the obvious because it will make Biden look bad” is the entire reason they are in this predicament in the first place. but for any democrat in touch with reality, there was an 81% chance Biden would lose 81% of the debate, before it even started. the campaign narrative, from the start, should've been "good, wise, old grandpa", rather than "strong, powerful leader". i've read the other replays too(communists gonna hate, they seem unable to get over the Bernie fiasco) and i don't see an answer. it's like, form the beginning, all the dems stuck their heads into the sand then hoped and prayed Trump would lose more(due to lawsuits, his lies, his character ...etc), forgetting they'd have to actually prop up someone for the next 4 years. and now, still with their heads in the sand, they're abandoning ship because ... aesthetic obligations disguised as ethic/moral reasons?. fucking hell, there's no plausible deniability to be had here; you(dems) all new. Honestly I think you are overestimating exactly how many people, on both sides of the aisle frankly, are in touch with reality. Here's a post I made 5 months ago: Show nested quote +On January 26 2024 10:47 BlackJack wrote:
If I were Biden’s team I would definitely advise him to not have any debates. He did okay at them 4 years ago but who knows what will happen now. You can really only get away with ending sentences by drifting off into mutterings on friendly territory. Besides he already has the perfect excuse - Trump being a danger to democracy and not wanting to give him a platform. Here's some of the responses I got to that post Show nested quote +Yeah, comparing Trump to Biden and then pretending like Biden is the incoherent mentally deteriorating one is just about the dumbest thing I've heard this week. Show nested quote +
In terms of age-related issues and mental deterioration and cognitive/verbal mess-ups, it's approximately a draw, which is why we might as well look at their policies and past presidencies.
There were a decent amount of Democrats that had been drinking the Kool-Aid and actually thought Biden could hang. I'm no nostradamus and yet I could easily predict that Biden would end sentences by drifting off into mutterings. It's fine if you're at a rally and the crowd is going to cheer no matter what. It's not okay at a debate. If anyone was shocked/surprised at the display Biden put on at the debate then I suggest they reflect on where they get their news from and how diverse their feed is. Republicans by and large were not shocked. It's what they have been saying for months.
I think there was a pretty widespread acceptance that Biden wasn’t a sharp as in his youth, but that erred the side of being a bit old rather than noticeable cognitive decline, or senility as some were saying.
Whether it was a particularly bad day at the office, he was previously stage-managed or he’s declined noticeably in the interim, people in this thread noticeably changed their tune after that debate.
As to whether that’s reflected more widely I’ve little exposure to wider sentiment so can’t speak to that.
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The economy is the size of the pie. You can debate on how to cut the pie and who gets which part. But if you aren't getting any pie, you don't complain about the pie not being big enough.
There are so much things wrong with all of this. But many people need a reality check. Obviously MAGA morons. Also those saying Biden absolutely needs to be replaced by their own pet candidate. And even more so those who now think Biden did ok and he just had a cold and a bad night. But, I have seen only Biden surrogates say that. No one anti Trump that is analyzing this said they were not shocked and worried.
The first issue is that Biden should have run in 2014. He was vice president after a long career in DC politics. For 'personal reasons' he didn't run against Clinton. He was already too old in 2020.
Second is Trump. Trump was a failed businessman who then decided to play a successful businessman in reality tv. Even I was fooled by the media back in 2016, thinking Trump actually was a billionaire. The media did this. Full stop. NBC & MSNBC created Trump. Then CNN ran with him hard. Why should a failed businessman who fucked a porn star and who committed fraud over and over even be on the stage of a GOP primary? That was unacceptable. Every US voter should have instantly recognized that. As should the media. The fact that in 2016 we cared more about how funny it was to see Trump make fun of Jeb Bush is the problem.
Third issue is about post-truth politics. The MSM and also social media have absolutely no idea how to deal with post-truth politics. I'll get to how the Dems also have not dealt with this. Buit media first. If the media don't change how they deal with post-Truth, then Democracy is at risk. You cannot have a democracy with politicians who constantly lie about anything, and the media lets them. Trump is an idiot and a buffoon. He is really good in hijacking the media cycle, looking good on tv, and finding people loyal to him. But he is incompetent. He doesn't know how government works. Whatever he is going to try to do to government in his second term, most of it is going to fail because of that. But, post-Truth politics is here to stay. We will get extremely competent post-Truth politicians. Probably on the far right, but maybe also on the left. We have them now all over Europe as well. And if the media don't completely change how they deal with it, every western country is headed towards becoming a flawed democracy. No exceptions.
This includes fact checks. If you can't fact check Trump, then don't invite him to a debate. Period. If you do, it is part on you if democracy is lost. If you worry that Trump will walk off halfway the debate if you do your journalistic due diligence, then don't even invite him.
Fourth, the Democrats have no idea how to deal with Trump. After 8 years, they still have no clue. Why didn't Biden deliberately weaponize the DoJ against Trump? He is going to accuse you of it doing anyway. Trump's supporters are going to believe you did anyway. So why not just do it? Why not just remove Trump from the chessboard. There is literally only upsides to this. Instead, he and Garland waited 2 years to appoint a special council. Biden is even going to lock up his own son to make it look like he is impartial regarding Trump's trials. How insane is that? He did everything he could to support his son Hunter. But now he is throwing his son Hunter under the bus, just so he can continue using the absolute worst strategy to deal with Trump. Now I don't know how exactly how to most successfully deal with Trump in terms of media spin and US politics. I am not a politician. But I don't see much that Biden did effectively, apart from the Dark Brandon thing that kinda worked. Why isn't Kamala Harris on tv every week absolutely blasting Trump and playing the bad cop while Biden is the competent good cop focusing on running the country? I should make a fifth point about Kamala Harris because something very strange is going on with her as to why no one likes her, we don't see her, but she also wasn't replaced. But I didn't do enough of a deep dive into her. And she isn't that important. Back to Trump. Trump literally was responsible for the deaths of millions of Americans, AND tried to steal the election results from the American people, AND tried to kill his on vice President. And Biden is just using kitty gloves. We have a complete normalization of Trump as a presidential candidate. And part of that is on Biden and his team.
Fifth. Biden's presidency has been shockingly competent. Biden did more than Obama did in 8 years. And Obama had a term where he controlled both the house and the senate. This isn't talked about enough. While Biden has failed to attack Trump, he also failed to spin his own successes. No one expected Biden's administration to be so good at running the country.
Sixth, people in Biden's administration must know Biden is too old to run for president against Trump. These people are around him every day. I am absolutely sure Biden knows what he is doing and is sharp when talking to world leaders at the G7. And it is actually insane how much Biden traveled abroad. Jet lag hits you hard when you get older. And Biden is ancient. So I have no doubt these people think that Biden right now can be president. And if they aren't doctors, they can't know if Biden is likely to be able to do so in 4 years. But that's not the problem. The problem is beating Trump. And you do that on tv. Not in the oval office.
These people decided that Biden was too old, too senile to do a superbowl interview. If they do that, why is he allowed to run again? Even back in 2020, most people assumed Biden would be a one term president because of his age. What is wrong with the Democratic party that they can't set up a new presidential candidate that can easily blow Trump away? That's literally the function of a political party: to create competent appealing candidates for all positions of office. The US has 330 million people. There's a ton of states, tons of people in congress, tons of talented staffers, tons of local administrators. Where is your recruitment program for top talent?
These people knew. And they did nothing. Because they wanted to keep their own jobs. They'd rather have 10% odds to be a Biden staffer in the White House for 4 more years, but 90% odds that Trump wins, than 100% odds they lose their White House staffer job, but Trump loses.
Seventh. The debate strategy was horrible. Ignoring the fact that Biden's own team strategy with this debate was to just show that Biden wasn't old. And that's why they had the debate early. Let's look at what Biden was actually trying to do. Biden was trying to have a radio-style policy debate with facts and numbers. That's insane! It was actually the Biden team that asked CNN to make sure Trump couldn't interrupt. When in fact those interruptions in the first Fox News debate by Trump were the reason people thought Biden won that debate. All you had to do is for Biden to start next to a raving lunatic Trump and have Biden say some very simple things. Crack a few jokes. Say Trump shouldn't even be allowed to run. And say you are a steady hand at the wheel. Instead, Biden's staffers crammed Biden's head full of policy talking points. And Biden thought he could recall all of that and talk circles around Trump, giving lectures about how the economy works, how many good treaties we have, rattle off numbers and statistics like a policy wonk. Biden tried to be Al Gore in 2000. Problem is, Biden isn't Al Gore. Biden is 81, not 52 which Al Gore was in 2000. And it is 2024, not 2000. Al Gore was debating W Bush, not Trump. And Al Gore lost that debate. The only thing they should have told to Biden was "Just listen what Trump said. Then when it is your turn, just remind the audience of how insane those Trump lies are. That Trump is a criminal and wants to be a dictator from day one, but that the country has been stable under your presidency." Yes, Biden wouldn't even have been able to do that. But it was not just the execution that was bad. The strategy was horrible as well. The worst part is where Biden was asked about abortion and he started talking about a girl who was murdered by an illegal immigrant. So he was simply not coherent to do any strategy. But the strategy should have been to keep it simple and basic. Just do the same thing every time. 1) Call Trump a liar. 2) Point out how unhinged and nonsensical the lies are. Like post-birth abortions. 3) Call him a danger to the country. Say either Jan6/abortion/loving dictators/project 2025. 4) Then say your economy/your green deal/your infrastructure deal/your competence/your alliances. That's it.
All Biden had to do was say "Look, I am old. I am slow. I can't debate properly anymore. But I am not a crazy criminal. That guy over there is. He shouldn't even be allowed on the stage with me. I have a great team around me. When that guy was a president, it was chaos. Everyone that worked for him in his White House now says that guy is a danger to the country. My presidency has been one of competence. And I can offer that the the American people for 4 more years."
And have Biden literally say that same thing over and over.
Don't have Biden cite exactly which general said what about Trump not visiting which US graveyard in France. Don't have Biden cite the percentage increase in taxes on billionaires. BAN HIM FROM SAYING ANY NUMBER. In a mock debate, any time Biden tries to give a detail or a number. END THE MOCK DEBATE. Take a break and start over in the afternoon or the next day. Even having Biden try to explain to the audience that congress had a bipartisan border deal and that Trump called Johnson to block it because Trump wants chaos at the border probably would be too complex. To complex for Biden to put into words. But also too complex for the viewer to understand. And it won't score as a one liner. Just have Biden say "We all remember Jan6, where HIS supporters, people he called to the capital, beat our cops. And our politicians, both Republicans and Democrats, had to flee. And that guy, he wanted to hang Mike Pence. His vice president. He wanted to kill him. That's despicable!"
What people don't seem to get is that the questions don't matter. Especially not with this format. It is not a debate. It is a bunch of elevator pitches interrupted by CNN questions. You aren't supposed to answer the questions. You should completely ignore them. Trump answered ZERO questions. Half the questions he started to talk about the border and illegal immigration. And guess what. PEOPLE THINK TRUMP WON THE DEBATE.
Eight, the debate format is horrible. Ignoring the fact that tv debates isn't how voters should decide who would be the best president. And ignoring that these debates are way less important than people in the media make them out to be. This format is horrible. If the Dems had a competent candidate that could blow away Trump in a debate, then part of the strategy should have been for the Democratic candidate to constantly attack CNN and the format. Say Gavin Newsom was up there. Have Newsum attack the moderators EVERY SINCE TIME after Trump lied and the moderators didn't fact check Trump. Do it relentlessly. That's what Trump would do if they did fact check him. Just say the format is unfair, anti Democratic, below even the basic journalistic standards, and go after Jake Tapper and Dana Bash personally.
Also the camera optics and the split screen, so the Biden debate prep team had a mock debate, they had Biden on the same split screen that they knew CNN would, and Biden's mouth was constantly open. And they then concluded "Yes, let's do a June CNN debate, no audience, split screen, no interruptions." That's insane to me. If Biden really had a could, they should 100% have canceled the debate. But they didn't even tell the media that Biden had a cold but would continue with the debate anyway. It is just insane. Those people should be fired and disbarred from politics for 20 years.
Nine, Trump's debate performance was absolutely horrible. People don't talk about this because Biden was worse. But this Trump would not have won the 2016 primaries. Even with this format, any young sharp debater in the Democratic party would have wiped the floor with Trump. Trump was good on climate 'because we had H2O'. Trump was also demented and confused. He just does it in a commanding and confident way.
Tenth, you can't replace Biden. It is just not possible. The risk of losing if you replace Biden is just too large. I think there's a ton of people that would have beat Trump in a debate. But many of them would run very poorly as a presidential candidate vs Trump. People all have their own pet favourite politician to replace Biden. But the fact is, Trump is going to spin this against you. Biden was Trump's kryptonite, and might still be. Trump will come up with nicknames for Newsom, Andy Beshear or Pete Buttigieg. Like Trump did with everyone before, except Biden. The Dems will look like a chaos party, when they should be running on being the party of order and competence. They will lose the incumbent bonus. It will look like a backstab and a betrayal of Harris/the back woman voters. It will prove Trump's lies about Biden correct. If Trump was correct about Biden all that time, what else was he correct about? On top of that, if Biden can't be president in 2025, why can he be president right now? Should they not use the 25th amendment right now?
Replacing your incumbent presidential candidate with a complete unknown wildcard is a way way way bigger problem than losing a tv debate is. It will open a completely new can of worms will will be impossible to control.
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United States41980 Posts
The conventional wisdom is that Biden had planned to run in 2016 but his son’s death derailed that.
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True. And he also didn't want to run in 2020 but he did because he thought no one else could beat Trump.
Biden's problem is that there will literally be voters that won't vote for him because they feel sorry for Biden and they don't want to see him struggle through a second presidency. There is something very painful, unsettling and confrontational about a very old person who tries to do things they can't do. The pope when he is near death is the prime example.
People will vote for Trump, or not vote at all, because they like and respect Biden and hope for Biden to get some decent humane senior years. Because otherwise every time they see Biden be really old on tv, they feel personally responsible for that.
Which is really bad for your campaign.
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On June 30 2024 23:55 Conaing wrote:
True. And he also didn't want to run in 2020 but he did because he thought no one else could beat Trump.
Biden's problem is that there will literally be voters that won't vote for him because they feel sorry for Biden and they don't want to see him struggle through a second presidency. There is something very painful, unsettling and confrontational about a very old person who tries to do things they can't do. The pope when he is near death is the prime example.
People will vote for Trump, or not vote at all, because they like and respect Biden and hope for Biden to get some decent humane senior years. Because otherwise every time they see Biden be really old on tv, they feel personally responsible for that.
Which is really bad for your campaign.
People who like and respect biden won't vote for trump full stop. It's like saying "respectable people with human decency will vote for trump".
Your point about the turnout being bad is very valid though. This is all very worrisome from an european pov tbh.
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People actually believe the garbage these politicians say about why they do and don't run? Biden didn't run in 2016 because everyone told him not to and data suggested he would have lost the primary to Clinton who already had infrastructure in place. The idea that a man who has been openly craving the presidency since the 1980s only ran because he felt some duty to beat Trump may be one of the most naive things I've ever read here and is countered the fact that he decided to seek a second term from the very beginning.
And DBP, thr polls have been remarkably consistent all year. There's also less reason to think they will change because these are the two most well-known candidates in modern American history. They both have records people are evaluating, maybe with rose-tinted glasses but still. It's not like there's a magical date where polls become extra predictive, it's summer anyways and nothing has changed significantly in polling for 9 months.
I think most dems just don't know how to handle being behind, they haven't had to see it for 2 decades, so depending on their age they either have never been here before or just don't remember.
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United States41980 Posts
Are you so cynical and partisan that you cannot imagine that Biden was in any way impacted by his son’s terminal cancer diagnosis and death?
I hate Trump but if, like Biden, he lost his wife, daughter, and son then I wouldn’t question him needing some time off. He’s a narcissistic racist misogynistic asshole, not a robot.
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On July 01 2024 01:14 Introvert wrote:
And DBP, thr polls have been remarkably consistent all year. There's also less reason to think they will change because these are the two most well-known candidates in modern American history. They both have records people are evaluating, maybe with rose-tinted glasses but still. It's not like there's a magical date where polls become extra predictive, it's summer anyways and nothing has changed significantly in polling for 9 months.
My prediction has been that the election will end up being a coinflip, which would indeed be "remarkably consistent" with how the polls have shaped up so far, so there's a good chance that you and I end up being right! You seem to dismiss the idea that there may be any volatility between now and November though, such as Biden taking a dip due to his poor debate performance. I'm impressed by your confidence - that Biden's chances won't be affected and that he remains at basically a 50/50 chance with Trump - but I think it's more likely that we'll see at least a little movement in the polls (negative for Biden), especially over the next few weeks. Maybe his polling numbers will recover after that though. We'll have to see what happens in July and August, and then Biden's team will potentially need to deal with another problem around September (second debate), which could also lead to more volatility. But maybe you're correct that Biden's polling will end up being immune to negatives; that would certainly help to balance out the massive number of negative consequences that haven't affected Trump's polling!
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Politicians give a lot of BS reasons, but "my son just died" is really really high on the list of legitimate reasons to not want to run for President right this minute.
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On July 01 2024 01:56 Gorsameth wrote:
Politicians give a lot of BS reasons, but "my son just died" is really really high on the list of legitimate reasons to not want to run for President right this minute.
Agreed, and Joe Biden has dealt with family tragedy after family tragedy after family tragedy.
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EPT
