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On March 28 2024 22:26 Uldridge wrote:
Can't believe you're listening to Tim Pool to be honest.
Oh, I don't. I even have him blocked on Twitter (which I use only for my video game marketing, not even for politics), but his nonsense (and general political nonsense) sometimes goes viral and ends up circulating around Twitter anyway.
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Northern Ireland27269 Posts
Yeah if you’re on any kind of social media platform it’s rather difficult to avoid Dim Pool
DPB when you say video game marketing do you mean marketing your own vidya or just keeping track of stuff you’re interested in? If the former I’m quite intrigued!
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On March 28 2024 22:44 WombaT wrote:
Yeah if you’re on any kind of social media platform it’s rather difficult to avoid Dim Pool
DPB when you say video game marketing do you mean marketing your own vidya or just keeping track of stuff you’re interested in? If the former I’m quite intrigued!
Oh, yeah, the former  I'll PM you some info about my game, as I don't want to post off-topic stuff in this thread!
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On March 28 2024 04:22 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2024 02:11 Gorsameth wrote:On March 28 2024 01:28 Introvert wrote:On March 27 2024 23:22 ChristianS wrote:On March 27 2024 22:46 Introvert wrote:On March 27 2024 22:33 ChristianS wrote:On March 27 2024 20:51 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Isn't Intro californian? So him voting or not isn't really relevant. I do agree he seems to tacitly support him, though. Yeah, his vote is inconsequential (mine too). I am interested in where his political allegiances (and those of other Americans who think similarly to him) lie. Same for Danglars, I mentioned wondering where he’s at on Trump these days, not because his vote matters, but because unlike Intro, he did seem to think January 6th was a travesty and Trump was to blame. IIRC he even said that in retrospect Biden was the right choice in 2020, not long before he got permabanned. There were a decent number of Republicans who were talking that way 3 years ago. I can’t help but wonder how easy they’re finding it to return to the fold, as Trump continues to swear the election was stolen, promise to pardon J6ers, etc. Pretty sure Danglars and I had a similar take on Jan 6 when it was happening, it would be easy to check i think. I don't recall him changing his position, but if he did I suspect it would have more to do with subsequent shenanigans in the states and in the house than the riot. Could be wrong though. Bur if either of us are not supporting Trump that would be him coming around to my side  either way I guess no need speculate on the (forcefully) departed I scrolled through a few pages of the thread on January 6th/7th, but I don’t think you were very active that day. Found a bunch of embattled Danglars posts, though, including (in retrospect, overly optimistic) statements like this: On January 07 2021 05:25 Danglars wrote:On January 07 2021 05:20 Nouar wrote:
At least now, we are pretty sure there is no future for Trump in politics, and it should be the clean break between the republican party and Trump.
Moderate republican voters should be forever reluctant to support him if they value "law and order" (Well I do hope so... But my beliefs in what is sane or not have been consistently shattered by republicans this past decade that I even doubt that now) Yeah, Trump is done with politics. This is the treason stuff. And now Trump's trying to "lock the barn door after the horse has bolted." At least at the time, Danglars’ take was “this is the treason stuff.” Supported impeach and remove, said in retrospect Biden was the right choice in 2020. Idk about then, but at least today your take is essentially “the capital riot was just a riot, NBD” and events like January 6th (and politicians like Trump inciting and celebrating them) are not a threat worth worrying about. Eh, could be wrong about Danglars, but I seem to recall using the phrase "throw the book at them" in reference to the rioters and him agreeing. But along with that (at least in the days following) i disagreed strongly with the idea that this was an event worthy of the "month+#" format and as big a deal as 9/11. So I have been consistent on that I think. Either way, if there is a coup in America at some point I think that would be the very end of Ameican democracy, not the beginning of the end. The system will be broken before that happens. And this "coup" had no chance of success, meanwhile the breakdown of the Constitutional system continues even now. It wasn't the very end because it wasn't successful. "There can't have been a coup attempt because it didn't succeed in ending democracy" is a very weird stance to take. I mean also don't really think it was a coup, I'm not sure the people who broke in really thought they were going to install Trump as president anyways through violent means. I thought it was a protest that went very wrong. Calling it a coup is giving it too much credit.
Y’know, I’ve heard this kind of talk a lot of times from conservatives (including unambiguously anti-Trump conservatives), and to be honest, the more I think about it, the more it pisses me off. I’ll try to keep a level head, but sorry if I come across a little heated.
Let’s start here. A large group of political partisans gathered outside the US Capitol building for the explicit purpose of changing who would be President for the next four years. There’s really no ambiguity about this, the whole reason they’re here today specifically is because that’s when Congress is supposed to certify that it’ll be Joe Biden and they want that to change. They’re also explicitly threatening lethal violence against public officials, even Republicans, who get in the way of that goal – also unambiguous, unless you’re gonna tell me “Hang Mike Pence” is some kind of complex metaphor.
They’re also well-armed. The Capitol Police, in fact, are severely outnumbered and outgunned (and, IIRC, people have even made bomb threats elsewhere in the city just to slow the police response at the Capitol). And they’re willing to beat Capitol Police to death with flagpoles, or crush them in a door, if they try to stop them. What, exactly, are you figuring would happen if these people caught Mike Pence (let alone, say, AOC or Ilhan Omar) in the halls? They would suddenly discover restraint? Capitol Police managed to use fortifications and tactical movement to keep all the elected officials away from the crowd until control was reasserted, but there’s no reason that outcome was guaranteed.
Hypothetically, what if Capitol Police had failed? The crowd catches and surrounds the members of Congress. Do they execute some of them? I don’t think it’s implausible. What I do find implausible is that they would have accepted anything less than Congress (or whatever remaining members of Congress) voting to decertify the real election results and push through something saying Trump stays president (“under duress,” we would have said, although stepping outside the hypothetical, many of them decided to vote that way anyway).
What happens next, I don’t know. Maybe the crowd goes home, Congress immediately recants their vote, and the insurrectionists still get tracked down and put on trial. My guess is they don’t stand down, and call on Trump to declare a national emergency and bring in troops to restore order to the capital (I do hope you won’t try to tell me Trump’s too principled for such a thing). Pretty soon the rest of us are hearing that Trump and his new Vice President Josh Hawley have declared martial law, but not to worry, they’ve got another four years to restore order and Make America Great Again. Note that none of this is actually inconsistent with “just a riot that got out of control.” Couldn’t that be said of the storming of the Bastille? Or the Paris housewives marching on Versailles?
Now Republicans are rewriting the J6ers as heroes and patriots. They’re “hostages” and “political prisoners.” Trump is promising to pardon them on his first day back in office. He’s opening his rallies with a “please stand” while he salutes for the National Anthem (a recording of it sung by imprisoned J6ers). Man, doesn’t that offend you?
I mean, you’re a guy that looks at Joe Biden trying to forgive some student loans instead of just pausing them indefinitely, and sees a slippery slope to authoritarianism. But jackbooted thugs try to seize the seat of power, execute their political enemies, and enact their political will through threat of violence, and that’s just a bad day at the office?
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On March 28 2024 10:43 micronesia wrote:
Is that confirmed to be real? Just have to be careful nowadays...
To his credit, I agree that it is a problem when Joe Buden disinformates our grest American citizens in public.
At first I read it as Joe Burden and I thought "I have to admit, that's a good zinger." but nope.
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aww common you cant be like yeah sure hes a rapist but...
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i cant even listen to chris brown
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On March 28 2024 23:53 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2024 04:22 Introvert wrote:On March 28 2024 02:11 Gorsameth wrote:On March 28 2024 01:28 Introvert wrote:On March 27 2024 23:22 ChristianS wrote:On March 27 2024 22:46 Introvert wrote:On March 27 2024 22:33 ChristianS wrote:On March 27 2024 20:51 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Isn't Intro californian? So him voting or not isn't really relevant. I do agree he seems to tacitly support him, though. Yeah, his vote is inconsequential (mine too). I am interested in where his political allegiances (and those of other Americans who think similarly to him) lie. Same for Danglars, I mentioned wondering where he’s at on Trump these days, not because his vote matters, but because unlike Intro, he did seem to think January 6th was a travesty and Trump was to blame. IIRC he even said that in retrospect Biden was the right choice in 2020, not long before he got permabanned. There were a decent number of Republicans who were talking that way 3 years ago. I can’t help but wonder how easy they’re finding it to return to the fold, as Trump continues to swear the election was stolen, promise to pardon J6ers, etc. Pretty sure Danglars and I had a similar take on Jan 6 when it was happening, it would be easy to check i think. I don't recall him changing his position, but if he did I suspect it would have more to do with subsequent shenanigans in the states and in the house than the riot. Could be wrong though. Bur if either of us are not supporting Trump that would be him coming around to my side either way I guess no need speculate on the (forcefully) departed I scrolled through a few pages of the thread on January 6th/7th, but I don’t think you were very active that day. Found a bunch of embattled Danglars posts, though, including (in retrospect, overly optimistic) statements like this: On January 07 2021 05:25 Danglars wrote:On January 07 2021 05:20 Nouar wrote:
At least now, we are pretty sure there is no future for Trump in politics, and it should be the clean break between the republican party and Trump.
Moderate republican voters should be forever reluctant to support him if they value "law and order" (Well I do hope so... But my beliefs in what is sane or not have been consistently shattered by republicans this past decade that I even doubt that now) Yeah, Trump is done with politics. This is the treason stuff. And now Trump's trying to "lock the barn door after the horse has bolted." At least at the time, Danglars’ take was “this is the treason stuff.” Supported impeach and remove, said in retrospect Biden was the right choice in 2020. Idk about then, but at least today your take is essentially “the capital riot was just a riot, NBD” and events like January 6th (and politicians like Trump inciting and celebrating them) are not a threat worth worrying about. Eh, could be wrong about Danglars, but I seem to recall using the phrase "throw the book at them" in reference to the rioters and him agreeing. But along with that (at least in the days following) i disagreed strongly with the idea that this was an event worthy of the "month+#" format and as big a deal as 9/11. So I have been consistent on that I think. Either way, if there is a coup in America at some point I think that would be the very end of Ameican democracy, not the beginning of the end. The system will be broken before that happens. And this "coup" had no chance of success, meanwhile the breakdown of the Constitutional system continues even now. It wasn't the very end because it wasn't successful. "There can't have been a coup attempt because it didn't succeed in ending democracy" is a very weird stance to take. I mean also don't really think it was a coup, I'm not sure the people who broke in really thought they were going to install Trump as president anyways through violent means. I thought it was a protest that went very wrong. Calling it a coup is giving it too much credit. Y’know, I’ve heard this kind of talk a lot of times from conservatives (including unambiguously anti-Trump conservatives), and to be honest, the more I think about it, the more it pisses me off. I’ll try to keep a level head, but sorry if I come across a little heated. Let’s start here. A large group of political partisans gathered outside the US Capitol building for the explicit purpose of changing who would be President for the next four years. There’s really no ambiguity about this, the whole reason they’re here today specifically is because that’s when Congress is supposed to certify that it’ll be Joe Biden and they want that to change. They’re also explicitly threatening lethal violence against public officials, even Republicans, who get in the way of that goal – also unambiguous, unless you’re gonna tell me “Hang Mike Pence” is some kind of complex metaphor. They’re also well-armed. The Capitol Police, in fact, are severely outnumbered and outgunned (and, IIRC, people have even made bomb threats elsewhere in the city just to slow the police response at the Capitol). And they’re willing to beat Capitol Police to death with flagpoles, or crush them in a door, if they try to stop them. What, exactly, are you figuring would happen if these people caught Mike Pence (let alone, say, AOC or Ilhan Omar) in the halls? They would suddenly discover restraint? Capitol Police managed to use fortifications and tactical movement to keep all the elected officials away from the crowd until control was reasserted, but there’s no reason that outcome was guaranteed. Hypothetically, what if Capitol Police had failed? The crowd catches and surrounds the members of Congress. Do they execute some of them? I don’t think it’s implausible. What I do find implausible is that they would have accepted anything less than Congress (or whatever remaining members of Congress) voting to decertify the real election results and push through something saying Trump stays president (“under duress,” we would have said, although stepping outside the hypothetical, many of them decided to vote that way anyway). What happens next, I don’t know. Maybe the crowd goes home, Congress immediately recants their vote, and the insurrectionists still get tracked down and put on trial. My guess is they don’t stand down, and call on Trump to declare a national emergency and bring in troops to restore order to the capital (I do hope you won’t try to tell me Trump’s too principled for such a thing). Pretty soon the rest of us are hearing that Trump and his new Vice President Josh Hawley have declared martial law, but not to worry, they’ve got another four years to restore order and Make America Great Again. Note that none of this is actually inconsistent with “just a riot that got out of control.” Couldn’t that be said of the storming of the Bastille? Or the Paris housewives marching on Versailles? Now Republicans are rewriting the J6ers as heroes and patriots. They’re “hostages” and “political prisoners.” Trump is promising to pardon them on his first day back in office. He’s opening his rallies with a “please stand” while he salutes for the National Anthem (a recording of it sung by imprisoned J6ers). Man, doesn’t that offend you? I mean, you’re a guy that looks at Joe Biden trying to forgive some student loans instead of just pausing them indefinitely, and sees a slippery slope to authoritarianism. But jackbooted thugs try to seize the seat of power, execute their political enemies, and enact their political will through threat of violence, and that’s just a bad day at the office?
Were capitol police really outgunned by the January 6 rioters? They seemed to disperse pretty quick after one of them got shot. They didn’t hold the line or return fire with their supposed superior weaponry. Doesn’t seem like the actions of some organized paramilitary group that you’re making them sound like. Sounds more like the behavior of a bunch of LARPers with the gunshot serving as a snap back to reality for them to realize posting on Qanon forums from their parents basement might be a safer way to fight the power than storming the capitol.
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Northern Ireland27269 Posts
Do they have to be a rigidly organised paramilitary force for it to be somewhat problematic?
My main bone of contention is less so those events but the reaction to them.
There’s no real ‘Hm ok perhaps this rhetoric was irresponsible, my bad’ kind of mea culpa, hell some quarters have basically doubled down. Trump’s conduct has been wholly disgraceful. Even if it’s entirely disingenuous try to repair your fuckup. The lack of visible efforts to rein in this nonsense are as bad as what precipitated them IMO.
Whipping up a mob is generally bad form after all. Either you can control said mob, in which case you’re absolutely culpable in what they do for the cause, or you can’t, in which case it’s grossly irresponsible to whip up something so volatile.
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On March 29 2024 20:56 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 28 2024 23:53 ChristianS wrote:On March 28 2024 04:22 Introvert wrote:On March 28 2024 02:11 Gorsameth wrote:On March 28 2024 01:28 Introvert wrote:On March 27 2024 23:22 ChristianS wrote:On March 27 2024 22:46 Introvert wrote:On March 27 2024 22:33 ChristianS wrote:On March 27 2024 20:51 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Isn't Intro californian? So him voting or not isn't really relevant. I do agree he seems to tacitly support him, though. Yeah, his vote is inconsequential (mine too). I am interested in where his political allegiances (and those of other Americans who think similarly to him) lie. Same for Danglars, I mentioned wondering where he’s at on Trump these days, not because his vote matters, but because unlike Intro, he did seem to think January 6th was a travesty and Trump was to blame. IIRC he even said that in retrospect Biden was the right choice in 2020, not long before he got permabanned. There were a decent number of Republicans who were talking that way 3 years ago. I can’t help but wonder how easy they’re finding it to return to the fold, as Trump continues to swear the election was stolen, promise to pardon J6ers, etc. Pretty sure Danglars and I had a similar take on Jan 6 when it was happening, it would be easy to check i think. I don't recall him changing his position, but if he did I suspect it would have more to do with subsequent shenanigans in the states and in the house than the riot. Could be wrong though. Bur if either of us are not supporting Trump that would be him coming around to my side either way I guess no need speculate on the (forcefully) departed I scrolled through a few pages of the thread on January 6th/7th, but I don’t think you were very active that day. Found a bunch of embattled Danglars posts, though, including (in retrospect, overly optimistic) statements like this: On January 07 2021 05:25 Danglars wrote:On January 07 2021 05:20 Nouar wrote:
At least now, we are pretty sure there is no future for Trump in politics, and it should be the clean break between the republican party and Trump.
Moderate republican voters should be forever reluctant to support him if they value "law and order" (Well I do hope so... But my beliefs in what is sane or not have been consistently shattered by republicans this past decade that I even doubt that now) Yeah, Trump is done with politics. This is the treason stuff. And now Trump's trying to "lock the barn door after the horse has bolted." At least at the time, Danglars’ take was “this is the treason stuff.” Supported impeach and remove, said in retrospect Biden was the right choice in 2020. Idk about then, but at least today your take is essentially “the capital riot was just a riot, NBD” and events like January 6th (and politicians like Trump inciting and celebrating them) are not a threat worth worrying about. Eh, could be wrong about Danglars, but I seem to recall using the phrase "throw the book at them" in reference to the rioters and him agreeing. But along with that (at least in the days following) i disagreed strongly with the idea that this was an event worthy of the "month+#" format and as big a deal as 9/11. So I have been consistent on that I think. Either way, if there is a coup in America at some point I think that would be the very end of Ameican democracy, not the beginning of the end. The system will be broken before that happens. And this "coup" had no chance of success, meanwhile the breakdown of the Constitutional system continues even now. It wasn't the very end because it wasn't successful. "There can't have been a coup attempt because it didn't succeed in ending democracy" is a very weird stance to take. I mean also don't really think it was a coup, I'm not sure the people who broke in really thought they were going to install Trump as president anyways through violent means. I thought it was a protest that went very wrong. Calling it a coup is giving it too much credit. Y’know, I’ve heard this kind of talk a lot of times from conservatives (including unambiguously anti-Trump conservatives), and to be honest, the more I think about it, the more it pisses me off. I’ll try to keep a level head, but sorry if I come across a little heated. Let’s start here. A large group of political partisans gathered outside the US Capitol building for the explicit purpose of changing who would be President for the next four years. There’s really no ambiguity about this, the whole reason they’re here today specifically is because that’s when Congress is supposed to certify that it’ll be Joe Biden and they want that to change. They’re also explicitly threatening lethal violence against public officials, even Republicans, who get in the way of that goal – also unambiguous, unless you’re gonna tell me “Hang Mike Pence” is some kind of complex metaphor. They’re also well-armed. The Capitol Police, in fact, are severely outnumbered and outgunned (and, IIRC, people have even made bomb threats elsewhere in the city just to slow the police response at the Capitol). And they’re willing to beat Capitol Police to death with flagpoles, or crush them in a door, if they try to stop them. What, exactly, are you figuring would happen if these people caught Mike Pence (let alone, say, AOC or Ilhan Omar) in the halls? They would suddenly discover restraint? Capitol Police managed to use fortifications and tactical movement to keep all the elected officials away from the crowd until control was reasserted, but there’s no reason that outcome was guaranteed. Hypothetically, what if Capitol Police had failed? The crowd catches and surrounds the members of Congress. Do they execute some of them? I don’t think it’s implausible. What I do find implausible is that they would have accepted anything less than Congress (or whatever remaining members of Congress) voting to decertify the real election results and push through something saying Trump stays president (“under duress,” we would have said, although stepping outside the hypothetical, many of them decided to vote that way anyway). What happens next, I don’t know. Maybe the crowd goes home, Congress immediately recants their vote, and the insurrectionists still get tracked down and put on trial. My guess is they don’t stand down, and call on Trump to declare a national emergency and bring in troops to restore order to the capital (I do hope you won’t try to tell me Trump’s too principled for such a thing). Pretty soon the rest of us are hearing that Trump and his new Vice President Josh Hawley have declared martial law, but not to worry, they’ve got another four years to restore order and Make America Great Again. Note that none of this is actually inconsistent with “just a riot that got out of control.” Couldn’t that be said of the storming of the Bastille? Or the Paris housewives marching on Versailles? Now Republicans are rewriting the J6ers as heroes and patriots. They’re “hostages” and “political prisoners.” Trump is promising to pardon them on his first day back in office. He’s opening his rallies with a “please stand” while he salutes for the National Anthem (a recording of it sung by imprisoned J6ers). Man, doesn’t that offend you? I mean, you’re a guy that looks at Joe Biden trying to forgive some student loans instead of just pausing them indefinitely, and sees a slippery slope to authoritarianism. But jackbooted thugs try to seize the seat of power, execute their political enemies, and enact their political will through threat of violence, and that’s just a bad day at the office? Were capitol police really outgunned by the January 6 rioters? They seemed to disperse pretty quick after one of them got shot. They didn’t hold the line or return fire with their supposed superior weaponry. Doesn’t seem like the actions of some organized paramilitary group that you’re making them sound like. Sounds more like the behavior of a bunch of LARPers with the gunshot serving as a snap back to reality for them to realize posting on Qanon forums from their parents basement might be a safer way to fight the power than storming the capitol.
The reason I pointed out
Note that none of this is actually inconsistent with “just a riot that got out of control.” Couldn’t that be said of the storming of the Bastille? Or the Paris housewives marching on Versailles? is that the mob doesn’t have to be smart or organized or well-trained to be attempting to overthrow the government, or even for it to work. Capitol police were outmanned and outgunned in that literally, there were more people with more guns on the other side, not because the J6ers were some elite military force. They were mostly a bunch of fucking idiots; that fact doesn’t really improve the moral calculus here.
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It's absolutely true that these goons were not some elite soviet takeover squad. They were idiots without a plan, no question. But the really important thing is that they didn't need a plan to be a genuine threat.
Democracy is a very fragile, low-entropy state. It depends on a lot of powerful people actively and consistently working against their own short term interests, in service to a fairly nebulous long-term shared goal. It doesn't take much at all to disrupt that.
To me, all the darkest timelines involve:
1. Trump switching from bitter, impotent old man to open insurrectionist once he realises there is an opportunity.
2. The R's in Congress being willing to certify for him and declare some kind of state of emergency
3. The military and the other organs of power failing to immediately resist this, and allowing power to crystallize.
Personally 1 and 2 seem very plausible. Trump would have no scruples at all about taking the crown if he thought he could. And you would absolutely be able to find some rump 30% congress willing to hand him that crown if you got in the chamber and killed and dispersed enough Ds and old-guard Rs. The mob was openly trying to do this of its own accord.
So, really, the survival of the whole edifice depended on the on-site law enforcement blocking or regaining control before Trump decided to take the mask off and stand them down. If that had failed, multiple organs of government would have had to turn against the newly congress-certified commander in chief, which would have basically constituted a counter-coup in itself. Maybe we could have trusted this to happen, but boy it's terrifying to be so close to testing that out.
All up, all it might have taken was a bit of extra entropy. These idiots were almost the crowbar that opened the gap to a world where enough powerful people saw their short- and long-term interests aligning for autocracy. The crowbar doesn't have to be smart, it just has to open the door.
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Hes guilty of attempting a coup for the fake elector plot. That WAS organized. Jan 6th is obviously a plot as well but he can play the riot got out of hand card. The fake electors were 100% pre meditated. All of them should be in jail.
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On March 29 2024 22:16 Belisarius wrote:
It's absolutely true that these goons were not some elite soviet takeover squad. They were idiots without a plan, no question. But the really important thing is that they didn't need a plan to be a genuine threat.
Democracy is a very fragile, low-entropy state. It depends on a lot of powerful people actively and consistently working against their own short term interests, in service to a fairly nebulous long-term shared goal. It doesn't take much at all to disrupt that.
To me, all the darkest timelines involve:
1. Trump switching from bitter, impotent old man to open insurrectionist once he realises there is an opportunity.
2. The R's in Congress being willing to certify for him and declare some kind of state of emergency
3. The military and the other organs of power failing to immediately resist this, and allowing power to crystallize.
Personally 1 and 2 seem very plausible. Trump would have no scruples at all about taking the crown if he thought he could. And you would absolutely be able to find some rump 30% congress willing to hand him that crown if you got in the chamber and killed and dispersed enough Ds and old-guard Rs. The mob was openly trying to do this of its own accord.
So, really, the survival of the whole edifice depended on the on-site law enforcement blocking or regaining control before Trump decided to take the mask off and stand them down. If that had failed, multiple organs of government would have had to turn against the newly congress-certified commander in chief, which would have basically constituted a counter-coup in itself. Maybe we could have trusted this to happen, but boy it's terrifying to be so close to testing that out.
All up, all it might have taken was a bit of extra entropy. These idiots were almost the crowbar that opened the gap to a world where enough powerful people saw their short- and long-term interests aligning for autocracy. The crowbar doesn't have to be smart, it just has to open the door.
Sure we were just shades away from the Shaman guy swearing in Trump as Supreme leader while flanked by Boebert and MTG. Which would have taken heroic levels of “counter-coup” to undo.
You honestly believe that if terrorists put a knife to congresspeople’s throats and demand they vote a certain way that whatever they voted for would be legitimate?
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On March 30 2024 02:16 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 29 2024 22:16 Belisarius wrote:
It's absolutely true that these goons were not some elite soviet takeover squad. They were idiots without a plan, no question. But the really important thing is that they didn't need a plan to be a genuine threat.
Democracy is a very fragile, low-entropy state. It depends on a lot of powerful people actively and consistently working against their own short term interests, in service to a fairly nebulous long-term shared goal. It doesn't take much at all to disrupt that.
To me, all the darkest timelines involve:
1. Trump switching from bitter, impotent old man to open insurrectionist once he realises there is an opportunity.
2. The R's in Congress being willing to certify for him and declare some kind of state of emergency
3. The military and the other organs of power failing to immediately resist this, and allowing power to crystallize.
Personally 1 and 2 seem very plausible. Trump would have no scruples at all about taking the crown if he thought he could. And you would absolutely be able to find some rump 30% congress willing to hand him that crown if you got in the chamber and killed and dispersed enough Ds and old-guard Rs. The mob was openly trying to do this of its own accord.
So, really, the survival of the whole edifice depended on the on-site law enforcement blocking or regaining control before Trump decided to take the mask off and stand them down. If that had failed, multiple organs of government would have had to turn against the newly congress-certified commander in chief, which would have basically constituted a counter-coup in itself. Maybe we could have trusted this to happen, but boy it's terrifying to be so close to testing that out.
All up, all it might have taken was a bit of extra entropy. These idiots were almost the crowbar that opened the gap to a world where enough powerful people saw their short- and long-term interests aligning for autocracy. The crowbar doesn't have to be smart, it just has to open the door. Sure we were just shades away from the Shaman guy swearing in Trump as Supreme leader while flanked by Boebert and MTG. Which would have taken heroic levels of “counter-coup” to undo. You honestly believe that if terrorists put a knife to congresspeople’s throats and demand they vote a certain way that whatever they voted for would be legitimate?
I don't get what your point is.
They didn't succeed in anything so it wasn't a threat?
Holding a knife to a congressperson's throat should be an american right?
Trump is so stupid that the counter-coup would be easy anyways?
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On March 30 2024 02:55 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2024 02:16 BlackJack wrote:On March 29 2024 22:16 Belisarius wrote:
It's absolutely true that these goons were not some elite soviet takeover squad. They were idiots without a plan, no question. But the really important thing is that they didn't need a plan to be a genuine threat.
Democracy is a very fragile, low-entropy state. It depends on a lot of powerful people actively and consistently working against their own short term interests, in service to a fairly nebulous long-term shared goal. It doesn't take much at all to disrupt that.
To me, all the darkest timelines involve:
1. Trump switching from bitter, impotent old man to open insurrectionist once he realises there is an opportunity.
2. The R's in Congress being willing to certify for him and declare some kind of state of emergency
3. The military and the other organs of power failing to immediately resist this, and allowing power to crystallize.
Personally 1 and 2 seem very plausible. Trump would have no scruples at all about taking the crown if he thought he could. And you would absolutely be able to find some rump 30% congress willing to hand him that crown if you got in the chamber and killed and dispersed enough Ds and old-guard Rs. The mob was openly trying to do this of its own accord.
So, really, the survival of the whole edifice depended on the on-site law enforcement blocking or regaining control before Trump decided to take the mask off and stand them down. If that had failed, multiple organs of government would have had to turn against the newly congress-certified commander in chief, which would have basically constituted a counter-coup in itself. Maybe we could have trusted this to happen, but boy it's terrifying to be so close to testing that out.
All up, all it might have taken was a bit of extra entropy. These idiots were almost the crowbar that opened the gap to a world where enough powerful people saw their short- and long-term interests aligning for autocracy. The crowbar doesn't have to be smart, it just has to open the door. Sure we were just shades away from the Shaman guy swearing in Trump as Supreme leader while flanked by Boebert and MTG. Which would have taken heroic levels of “counter-coup” to undo. You honestly believe that if terrorists put a knife to congresspeople’s throats and demand they vote a certain way that whatever they voted for would be legitimate? I don't get what your point is. They didn't succeed in anything so it wasn't a threat? Holding a knife to a congressperson's throat should be an american right? Trump is so stupid that the counter-coup would be easy anyways?
My point was that the post I was replying to is quite imaginative
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On March 30 2024 02:16 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 29 2024 22:16 Belisarius wrote:
It's absolutely true that these goons were not some elite soviet takeover squad. They were idiots without a plan, no question. But the really important thing is that they didn't need a plan to be a genuine threat.
Democracy is a very fragile, low-entropy state. It depends on a lot of powerful people actively and consistently working against their own short term interests, in service to a fairly nebulous long-term shared goal. It doesn't take much at all to disrupt that.
To me, all the darkest timelines involve:
1. Trump switching from bitter, impotent old man to open insurrectionist once he realises there is an opportunity.
2. The R's in Congress being willing to certify for him and declare some kind of state of emergency
3. The military and the other organs of power failing to immediately resist this, and allowing power to crystallize.
Personally 1 and 2 seem very plausible. Trump would have no scruples at all about taking the crown if he thought he could. And you would absolutely be able to find some rump 30% congress willing to hand him that crown if you got in the chamber and killed and dispersed enough Ds and old-guard Rs. The mob was openly trying to do this of its own accord.
So, really, the survival of the whole edifice depended on the on-site law enforcement blocking or regaining control before Trump decided to take the mask off and stand them down. If that had failed, multiple organs of government would have had to turn against the newly congress-certified commander in chief, which would have basically constituted a counter-coup in itself. Maybe we could have trusted this to happen, but boy it's terrifying to be so close to testing that out.
All up, all it might have taken was a bit of extra entropy. These idiots were almost the crowbar that opened the gap to a world where enough powerful people saw their short- and long-term interests aligning for autocracy. The crowbar doesn't have to be smart, it just has to open the door. Sure we were just shades away from the Shaman guy swearing in Trump as Supreme leader while flanked by Boebert and MTG. Which would have taken heroic levels of “counter-coup” to undo. You honestly believe that if terrorists put a knife to congresspeople’s throats and demand they vote a certain way that whatever they voted for would be legitimate? it would obviously be illegitimate.
And?
Who is going to enforce that?
And we're back to hoping the army 'does the right thing' and that their oath to the constitution out way their possibly loyalty to Trump.
An issue the rest of the first and second world doesn't have to consider.
But America apparently does.
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Northern Ireland27269 Posts
On March 30 2024 02:55 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2024 02:16 BlackJack wrote:On March 29 2024 22:16 Belisarius wrote:
It's absolutely true that these goons were not some elite soviet takeover squad. They were idiots without a plan, no question. But the really important thing is that they didn't need a plan to be a genuine threat.
Democracy is a very fragile, low-entropy state. It depends on a lot of powerful people actively and consistently working against their own short term interests, in service to a fairly nebulous long-term shared goal. It doesn't take much at all to disrupt that.
To me, all the darkest timelines involve:
1. Trump switching from bitter, impotent old man to open insurrectionist once he realises there is an opportunity.
2. The R's in Congress being willing to certify for him and declare some kind of state of emergency
3. The military and the other organs of power failing to immediately resist this, and allowing power to crystallize.
Personally 1 and 2 seem very plausible. Trump would have no scruples at all about taking the crown if he thought he could. And you would absolutely be able to find some rump 30% congress willing to hand him that crown if you got in the chamber and killed and dispersed enough Ds and old-guard Rs. The mob was openly trying to do this of its own accord.
So, really, the survival of the whole edifice depended on the on-site law enforcement blocking or regaining control before Trump decided to take the mask off and stand them down. If that had failed, multiple organs of government would have had to turn against the newly congress-certified commander in chief, which would have basically constituted a counter-coup in itself. Maybe we could have trusted this to happen, but boy it's terrifying to be so close to testing that out.
All up, all it might have taken was a bit of extra entropy. These idiots were almost the crowbar that opened the gap to a world where enough powerful people saw their short- and long-term interests aligning for autocracy. The crowbar doesn't have to be smart, it just has to open the door. Sure we were just shades away from the Shaman guy swearing in Trump as Supreme leader while flanked by Boebert and MTG. Which would have taken heroic levels of “counter-coup” to undo. You honestly believe that if terrorists put a knife to congresspeople’s throats and demand they vote a certain way that whatever they voted for would be legitimate? I don't get what your point is. They didn't succeed in anything so it wasn't a threat? Holding a knife to a congressperson's throat should be an american right? Trump is so stupid that the counter-coup would be easy anyways?
Look BJ is just a centrist concerned about principles and the rule of law, which is why he’ll downplay Jan 6th while frequently railing against riots associated with the BLM movement.
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On March 30 2024 03:24 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2024 02:16 BlackJack wrote:On March 29 2024 22:16 Belisarius wrote:
It's absolutely true that these goons were not some elite soviet takeover squad. They were idiots without a plan, no question. But the really important thing is that they didn't need a plan to be a genuine threat.
Democracy is a very fragile, low-entropy state. It depends on a lot of powerful people actively and consistently working against their own short term interests, in service to a fairly nebulous long-term shared goal. It doesn't take much at all to disrupt that.
To me, all the darkest timelines involve:
1. Trump switching from bitter, impotent old man to open insurrectionist once he realises there is an opportunity.
2. The R's in Congress being willing to certify for him and declare some kind of state of emergency
3. The military and the other organs of power failing to immediately resist this, and allowing power to crystallize.
Personally 1 and 2 seem very plausible. Trump would have no scruples at all about taking the crown if he thought he could. And you would absolutely be able to find some rump 30% congress willing to hand him that crown if you got in the chamber and killed and dispersed enough Ds and old-guard Rs. The mob was openly trying to do this of its own accord.
So, really, the survival of the whole edifice depended on the on-site law enforcement blocking or regaining control before Trump decided to take the mask off and stand them down. If that had failed, multiple organs of government would have had to turn against the newly congress-certified commander in chief, which would have basically constituted a counter-coup in itself. Maybe we could have trusted this to happen, but boy it's terrifying to be so close to testing that out.
All up, all it might have taken was a bit of extra entropy. These idiots were almost the crowbar that opened the gap to a world where enough powerful people saw their short- and long-term interests aligning for autocracy. The crowbar doesn't have to be smart, it just has to open the door. Sure we were just shades away from the Shaman guy swearing in Trump as Supreme leader while flanked by Boebert and MTG. Which would have taken heroic levels of “counter-coup” to undo. You honestly believe that if terrorists put a knife to congresspeople’s throats and demand they vote a certain way that whatever they voted for would be legitimate? it would obviously be illegitimate. And? Who is going to enforce that? And we're back to hoping the army 'does the right thing' and that their oath to the constitution out way their possibly loyalty to Trump. An issue the rest of the first and second world doesn't have to consider. But America apparently does.
Um, yeah. If the army wanted to support an illegitimate government they wouldn't need permission from the shaman guy and his army of neckbeards. I don't understand this line of reasoning. The rebellion was squashed and the full weight of the justice system is coming down on them. How am I supposed to respond to "oh yeah but what if that didn't happen."
What if the capitol police joined the mob too and started blasting all the congress people. What then, BJ?!? Are you just going to hope they do the right thing and not murder people?!
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EPT
