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On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though.
Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway.
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On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway.
I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics.
I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy.
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On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy.
I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump.
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On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump.
While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign.
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On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign.
Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise.
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On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign.
Hopefully no one handles it, as it's likely to be contagious given his policy on vaccination.
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On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise.
As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol)
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On June 08 2023 21:49 JimmiC wrote:
Did I miss something last night? I did not see Biden lose the primary and then him throw a big rally to have his supporters over turn it.
Yeah there's simply no comparison in "how democratic each side is being" when one side may or may not field a bunch of candidates, while the other side's leader is a literal fascist.
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On June 08 2023 21:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:49 JimmiC wrote:
Did I miss something last night? I did not see Biden lose the primary and then him throw a big rally to have his supporters over turn it. Yeah there's simply no comparison in "how democratic each side is being" when one side may or may not field a bunch of candidates, while the other side's leader is a literal fascist.
It's usually safe to say whatever bad thing is happening Republicans are worse about it, it's just disconcerting that democracy so easily gets added to the list of things Democrat voters wish wasn't decaying while voting for people who are openly undermining it. At least as long as it is perceptibly less than the literal fascists that they still might just lose to anyway. Never mind that even when they win, they can only feebly negotiate over the rate of decline.
Maybe RFK Jr. tops out here and this is as bad as rationalizations have to get, but I think if he continues to rise, especially in the early primary states (there's no public state level polling for him yet afaik), they'll get worse
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On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run).
Can you be a bit more specific about what undemocratic measures you think the Dems will take? I doubt they’ll schedule any debates, for instance, but if they claim is “they’re demonstrably more undemocratic than the Republicans” I’d want to see more than that. “Ignore the challenger and pretend there isn’t even a primary” was also the Republican playbook in the 2020 primary (and is pretty standard whenever there’s an incumbent).
If your point is just “it’s undemocratic in general how hard it is to unseat an incumbent from the same party as you” that’s maybe true of every elected office in the US. That’s certainly a problem, just not sure if you’re referring to something more specific than that.
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On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run).
Honestly, I think the reason why Fox and other mainstream conservative outlets will give more time to non-Trump candidates is because they want Trump to lose their primary. I think they'd much rather try to create traction and popularity for a consistent, predictable, establishment Republican, and they're willing to try anyone. On the Democrat's side, however, Biden is already that moderately-left, establishment politician, so there's no reason to replace him with an unknown / less popular candidate who may have new skeletons in their closet that voters haven't accepted yet (like being an anti-vaxxer) and who might therefore be more likely to lose the general election than Biden.
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On June 08 2023 22:28 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:49 JimmiC wrote:
Did I miss something last night? I did not see Biden lose the primary and then him throw a big rally to have his supporters over turn it. Yeah there's simply no comparison in "how democratic each side is being" when one side may or may not field a bunch of candidates, while the other side's leader is a literal fascist. It's usually safe to say whatever bad thing is happening Republicans are worse about it, it's just disconcerting that democracy so easily gets added to the list of things Democrat voters wish wasn't decaying while voting for people who are openly undermining it. At least as long as it is perceptibly less than the literal fascists that they still might just lose to anyway. Never mind that even when they win, they can only feebly negotiate over the rate of decline. Maybe RFK Jr. tops out here and this is as bad as rationalizations have to get, but I think if he continues to rise, especially in the early primary states (there's no public state level polling for him yet afaik), they'll get worse
As I just stated, I don't think that this is an example of "openly undermining democracy", because I don't think it's appropriate to force whoever-I-want-to-run-for-president to actually run for president. There's a lot of time and money and effort and political capital at stake, and plenty of people don't want to do it.
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On June 08 2023 22:30 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run). Can you be a bit more specific about what undemocratic measures you think the Dems will take? I doubt they’ll schedule any debates, for instance, + Show Spoiler +but if they claim is “they’re demonstrably more undemocratic than the Republicans” I’d want to see more than that. “Ignore the challenger and pretend there isn’t even a primary” was also the Republican playbook in the 2020 primary (and is pretty standard whenever there’s an incumbent).
If your point is just “it’s undemocratic in general how hard it is to unseat an incumbent from the same party as you” that’s maybe true of every elected office in the US. That’s certainly a problem, just not sure if you’re referring to something more specific than that. Besides not hosting debates (which is typically rationalized by no other candidates meeting the polling/funding thresholds, not some manufactured bs anti-democratic "tradition") the current plan is to disregard votes from Iowa and New Hampshire.
That's not to say I don't fully expect Democrats to rationalize that, but that the better RFK Jr. (and Williamson to a lesser degree) poll (and/or the worse Biden/DeSantis polls) the more ridiculous I expect the rationalizations for a faux Democrat primary to get.
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United States43799 Posts
Biden can beat Trump and when it comes to that I’m a single issue voter.
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On June 08 2023 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 22:30 ChristianS wrote:On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run). Can you be a bit more specific about what undemocratic measures you think the Dems will take? I doubt they’ll schedule any debates, for instance, + Show Spoiler +but if they claim is “they’re demonstrably more undemocratic than the Republicans” I’d want to see more than that. “Ignore the challenger and pretend there isn’t even a primary” was also the Republican playbook in the 2020 primary (and is pretty standard whenever there’s an incumbent).
If your point is just “it’s undemocratic in general how hard it is to unseat an incumbent from the same party as you” that’s maybe true of every elected office in the US. That’s certainly a problem, just not sure if you’re referring to something more specific than that. Besides not hosting debates (which is typically rationalized by no other candidates meeting the polling/funding thresholds, not some manufactured bs anti-democratic "tradition") the current plan is to disregard votes from Iowa and New Hampshire. That's not to say I don't fully expect Democrats to rationalize that, but that the better RFK Jr. (and Williamson to a lesser degree) poll (and/or the worse Biden/DeSantis polls) the more ridiculous I expect the rationalizations for a faux Democrat primary to get.
Do you mean just ignore the Iowa and NH caucus/primary outcomes altogether? Like, only count votes/delegates from the other 48 states? How is it that legal and who is proposing that?
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On June 08 2023 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 22:30 ChristianS wrote:On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run). Can you be a bit more specific about what undemocratic measures you think the Dems will take? I doubt they’ll schedule any debates, for instance, + Show Spoiler +but if they claim is “they’re demonstrably more undemocratic than the Republicans” I’d want to see more than that. “Ignore the challenger and pretend there isn’t even a primary” was also the Republican playbook in the 2020 primary (and is pretty standard whenever there’s an incumbent).
If your point is just “it’s undemocratic in general how hard it is to unseat an incumbent from the same party as you” that’s maybe true of every elected office in the US. That’s certainly a problem, just not sure if you’re referring to something more specific than that. Besides not hosting debates (which is typically rationalized by no other candidates meeting the polling/funding thresholds, not some manufactured bs anti-democratic "tradition") the current plan is to disregard votes from Iowa and New Hampshire. That's not to say I don't fully expect Democrats to rationalize that, but that the better RFK Jr. (and Williamson to a lesser degree) poll (and/or the worse Biden/DeSantis polls) the more ridiculous I expect the rationalizations for a faux Democrat primary to get.
I haven’t followed the story much, but my understanding is the Iowa and New Hampshire thing goes something like:
Dems: Iowa and New Hampshire, we’re not gonna let you go first any more.
Iowa and New Hampshire: screw you, we can schedule it first if we want to.
Dems: yeah, but if you do we won’t count the votes for anything.
I’m not sure it’s that easy to say what the democratic or undemocratic outcome to that dispute would be. Iowa and New Hampshire have had an outsized influence on presidential nominations for ages because of going first, now the party is trying to take that away and the states are mad about it. There’s a decent chance that their primaries would *still* have more weight than other states even if the party does refuse to count their votes, although if the only challenger is RFK at <25% support it presumably won’t matter much.
The primary system is byzantine and unintuitive in general. There are *some* rationales for it working the way it does, but you’re gonna have some trouble convincing me to worry about the poor Iowans not having their voices heard in presidential primaries.
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On June 08 2023 23:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 22:30 ChristianS wrote:On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run). Can you be a bit more specific about what undemocratic measures you think the Dems will take? I doubt they’ll schedule any debates, for instance, + Show Spoiler +but if they claim is “they’re demonstrably more undemocratic than the Republicans” I’d want to see more than that. “Ignore the challenger and pretend there isn’t even a primary” was also the Republican playbook in the 2020 primary (and is pretty standard whenever there’s an incumbent).
If your point is just “it’s undemocratic in general how hard it is to unseat an incumbent from the same party as you” that’s maybe true of every elected office in the US. That’s certainly a problem, just not sure if you’re referring to something more specific than that. Besides not hosting debates (which is typically rationalized by no other candidates meeting the polling/funding thresholds, not some manufactured bs anti-democratic "tradition") the current plan is to disregard votes from Iowa and New Hampshire. That's not to say I don't fully expect Democrats to rationalize that, but that the better RFK Jr. (and Williamson to a lesser degree) poll (and/or the worse Biden/DeSantis polls) the more ridiculous I expect the rationalizations for a faux Democrat primary to get. Do you mean just ignore the Iowa and NH caucus/primary outcomes altogether? Like, only count votes/delegates from the other 48 states? How is it that legal and who is proposing that? A reminder that there are actually no legal rules for a party Primary. Any party can operate however they want.
The constitution cares about the actual election, not how people arrive at who they chose to be their candidate.
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On June 08 2023 23:44 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 22:30 ChristianS wrote:On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 20:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
Democratic primary is probably going to be a dud in a variety of ways but there are some wildcard possibilities.
One question is how much of a coronation for someone the majority of the party didn't even want to run Dem voters will stomach?
Democrats going all-in on an obviously antidemocratic primary side by side with campaigning against Trump destroying democracy is going to test people's mental and rhetorical gymnastics for sure though. Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run). Can you be a bit more specific about what undemocratic measures you think the Dems will take? I doubt they’ll schedule any debates, for instance, + Show Spoiler +but if they claim is “they’re demonstrably more undemocratic than the Republicans” I’d want to see more than that. “Ignore the challenger and pretend there isn’t even a primary” was also the Republican playbook in the 2020 primary (and is pretty standard whenever there’s an incumbent).
If your point is just “it’s undemocratic in general how hard it is to unseat an incumbent from the same party as you” that’s maybe true of every elected office in the US. That’s certainly a problem, just not sure if you’re referring to something more specific than that. Besides not hosting debates (which is typically rationalized by no other candidates meeting the polling/funding thresholds, not some manufactured bs anti-democratic "tradition") the current plan is to disregard votes from Iowa and New Hampshire. That's not to say I don't fully expect Democrats to rationalize that, but that the better RFK Jr. (and Williamson to a lesser degree) poll (and/or the worse Biden/DeSantis polls) the more ridiculous I expect the rationalizations for a faux Democrat primary to get. I haven’t followed the story much, but my understanding is the Iowa and New Hampshire thing goes something like: Dems: Iowa and New Hampshire, we’re not gonna let you go first any more. Iowa and New Hampshire: screw you, we can schedule it first if we want to. Dems: yeah, but if you do we won’t count the votes for anything. I’m not sure it’s that easy to say what the democratic or undemocratic outcome to that dispute would be. Iowa and New Hampshire have had an outsized influence on presidential nominations for ages because of going first, now the party is trying to take that away and the states are mad about it. There’s a decent chance that their primaries would *still* have more weight than other states even if the party does refuse to count their votes, although if the only challenger is RFK at <25% support it presumably won’t matter much. The primary system is byzantine and unintuitive in general. There are *some* rationales for it working the way it does, but you’re gonna have some trouble convincing me to worry about the poor Iowans not having their voices heard in presidential primaries. Punitively disenfranchising voters in Iowa and New Hampshire for voting is pretty unambiguously undemocratic in the holistic sense.
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On June 09 2023 00:57 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2023 23:44 ChristianS wrote:On June 08 2023 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 22:30 ChristianS wrote:On June 08 2023 21:56 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:38 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 21:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 08 2023 21:09 GreenHorizons wrote:On June 08 2023 20:41 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]
Wouldn't something like "I wish the Democrats had had a serious primary (assuming one doesn't occur), but I understand that some potential, up-and-coming candidates might not want to jeopardize their political future by challenging the incumbent and current leader of the party right now - especially when that person is Joe Biden, who has beaten the almost-certain-to-be-Republican-nominee Donald Trump once already" be a reasonable stance to take without needing crazy mental gymnastics? In four years, the field will be clear for new primary candidates anyway. I mean I think those are already pretty ridiculous, but also mostly standard gymnastics for US politics. I'm more referencing how Democrat's primary is going to be observably less democratic than the Republicans who are supposed to be nominating the guy destroying democracy. I think that's just how the incumbent advantage + other candidates thinking about their long-term goals work. We can't force someone to run for president if they don't want to / if they don't think it's worth it / if they want to wait for another election cycle. I don't think it's undemocratic to allow people to not run for president, even if we think other people would do a better job as president than Biden or Trump. While I certainly interpret all that more as structural coercion and corruption built into US institutions/processes, I'm more referring to how they are handling/going to handle RFK Jr.'s campaign. Ah okay. Personally, I think he's a joke of a candidate, but there is still plenty of time to be convinced otherwise. As is to be expected. Thing is, Democratic voters take him more seriously than Republicans take 10 (almost 11) out of 12 of their declared candidates, yet the Republican party (and corporate media) is going to give them + Show Spoiler +(and their supporters, which is basically extended family and people getting paid to help lol) all a more holistically democratic primary than Democrats will give RFK Jr. and ~15-20% of their party voters (or the 50%+ that didn't want Biden to even run). Can you be a bit more specific about what undemocratic measures you think the Dems will take? I doubt they’ll schedule any debates, for instance, + Show Spoiler +but if they claim is “they’re demonstrably more undemocratic than the Republicans” I’d want to see more than that. “Ignore the challenger and pretend there isn’t even a primary” was also the Republican playbook in the 2020 primary (and is pretty standard whenever there’s an incumbent).
If your point is just “it’s undemocratic in general how hard it is to unseat an incumbent from the same party as you” that’s maybe true of every elected office in the US. That’s certainly a problem, just not sure if you’re referring to something more specific than that. Besides not hosting debates (which is typically rationalized by no other candidates meeting the polling/funding thresholds, not some manufactured bs anti-democratic "tradition") the current plan is to disregard votes from Iowa and New Hampshire. That's not to say I don't fully expect Democrats to rationalize that, but that the better RFK Jr. (and Williamson to a lesser degree) poll (and/or the worse Biden/DeSantis polls) the more ridiculous I expect the rationalizations for a faux Democrat primary to get. I haven’t followed the story much, but my understanding is the Iowa and New Hampshire thing goes something like: Dems: Iowa and New Hampshire, we’re not gonna let you go first any more. Iowa and New Hampshire: screw you, we can schedule it first if we want to. Dems: yeah, but if you do we won’t count the votes for anything. I’m not sure it’s that easy to say what the democratic or undemocratic outcome to that dispute would be. Iowa and New Hampshire have had an outsized influence on presidential nominations for ages because of going first, now the party is trying to take that away and the states are mad about it. There’s a decent chance that their primaries would *still* have more weight than other states even if the party does refuse to count their votes, although if the only challenger is RFK at <25% support it presumably won’t matter much. The primary system is byzantine and unintuitive in general. There are *some* rationales for it working the way it does, but you’re gonna have some trouble convincing me to worry about the poor Iowans not having their voices heard in presidential primaries. Punitively disenfranchising voters in Iowa and New Hampshire for voting is pretty unambiguously undemocratic in the holistic sense.
Okay, but the whole idea of this primary system is “we need to get all the states on board with a plan that spaces out their primaries and makes sure everyone’s vote still matters.” Earlier states get fewer delegates, later states get more, but going earlier in the process has an outsized influence on the outcome so it’s still “better” (i.e. has more influence on the final outcome).
But the DNC has no power to actually make the states wait until their prescribed date, that’s up to the actual states. All they can do is disqualify the results if somebody goes out of turn. It’s a bit like if you’re in a race and you start running before you’re supposed to - they don’t really have a choice but to DQ you.
Of course, Iowa and New Hampshire are just wanting to keep their previous time slot, and the DNC wants to bump them back in the order. We can argue about whether the DNC is right to do so. But in general “it’s undemocratic to disqualify results of a state that goes early” is like saying “the race was rigged, they DQ’d me because I started running early.”
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EPT
