EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 3805
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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
On November 09 2022 14:22 StasisField wrote: Warnock takes back the lead from Walker but unless he can get over 50% of the vote, I fear he'll lose the runoff in December I honestly see him winning like he did last cycle, especially if his election would give Dems 50 seats again | ||
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gobbledydook
Australia2605 Posts
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Introvert
United States4850 Posts
time for Trump to go away, time for DeSantis 2024. be a competent executive, take common sense positions, and don't needlessly antagonize people. house going red will still stop the dems agenda, at least. Biden still quite unpopular. would prob still beat trump again, unless his mental decline continues. edit: or even look at people like Zeldin, who may hold Hochul to under 10 in NY. Even tho he was never going to win, shows there was real weakness to be exploited. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
On November 09 2022 14:34 Introvert wrote: i was talking earlier about how you can't just chalk a 20 point swing in state (and 50 point swing in one of the largest counties) to candidates. but it does matter, so many of these races are frustratingly close. PA, GA, prob AZ. now the gop could still win 2/3, but it shouldn't have been close. glad I wasn't getting too pollyannaish. still, losing by so small amounts... time for Trump to go away, time for DeSantis 2024. be a competent executive, take common sense positions, and don't needlessly antagonize people. house going red will still stop the dems agenda, at least. Biden still quite unpopular. would prob still beat trump again, unless his mental decline continues. What do you think of the recent Trump attacks on DeSantis? Do you think it will cause any affect on the next election cycle if they start seriously infighting? | ||
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L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On November 09 2022 14:07 GreenHorizons wrote: Basically Socialism and the markets associated with it do not. Just as a heads up, I'm highly skeptical of your sociological inferences, they read like a modernized phrenology to me. How does it prey upon such things? Or, if a different framing helps, how does socialism prevent this preying upon? ---- Wrt to genetics we know that both cognitive ability and personality behave in a way that suggests about 80% of the traits are a result of genetic distributions. The remaining 20% is environmental, but not in ways we know of. It's some combination of things that are not families, social upbringing, education, etc. We do know many things that can be damaging though, including obvious ones like malnourishment, abuse, etc. The ways in which we know are a myriad of different ways, drawing across all major disciplines of the biological sciences: neuroscience we know genetically determined characteristics of intelligent brains vs less-intelligent ones (increased synaptic transmission speed, increased pruning, etc.), we know of the natural eugenic tendencies of civilizations in harsher climates as they moved out of Africa (intelligence generally decreases as you move equatorially -> less hostile climate -> less need for neural adaptability [intelligence]), we have hosts of various studies in psychology as IQ is one of the most studied aspects in the discipline (large aggregate studies, school quality switching, many twin studies across different classes, massive number of longitudinal studies, differences in the shape of distribution across the sexes, incredibly well designed Swedish IVF study from a couple years back that put a huge nail in parenting as a possible hope, etc. we know that AI can predict intelligence and political orientation from faces much better than humans (only possible if genetic), and then we have a massive amount of purely anecdotal/observational data; e.g. regional distributions of intelligence suggesting lowest for sub saharan Africans, higher for south americans and arabs, higher still for the more temperate europeans, and then highest for northern europeans and asians, and everything pretty much lines with up with that in terms of what we see from the achievements of the great civilizations with Asian development of face before truth likely being the reason western culture (truth before face) likely being the reason for European dominance. And that's legitimately like.....scratching the surface of what's out there, but I also really don't want to write a 50 page summary of the entirety of the top couple hundred papers across ten disciplines to give testimony to a reasonably obvious observation. | ||
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Symplectos
Luxembourg42 Posts
time for Trump to go away, time for DeSantis 2024. be a competent executive, take common sense positions, and don't needlessly antagonize people. Not needlessly antagonizing people really is DeSantis' strong suit. The same goes for common sense. \s As an European, I am honestly interested in as to how someone as DeSantis can be seen as a good person with common sense, considering each time I hear him speak, he is trolling and behaving like a stubborn child. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28701 Posts
GOP abandoning Trump is one of many, but perhaps the most important, step towards some achieving some degree of political commonality. I mean, it's not like the old status quo yielded particularly good political results, but imo it was still preferable to the whole union unraveling by its seams thing currently going on. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
At this rate it's probably R taking a narrow House win and Dems holding the Senate. Still not much clarity even at this hour, though. | ||
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Introvert
United States4850 Posts
On November 09 2022 14:37 Slaughter wrote: What do you think of the recent Trump attacks on DeSantis? Do you think it will cause any affect on the next election cycle if they start seriously infighting? Fighting is inevitable, this is going to be a Republican primary. I'm not sure the cliché is always true, but GOP voters will go after each other like hell in primaries and come home for general elections. I think Trump is hurt. A bunch of trump people are going down while RDS is winning FL by NINETEEN points. What is Trump's argument for himself? "Hey i lost in 2020 and most of my guys lost in 2022"? to be honest, just from DeSantis' own personal position, this is the perfect result. He really stands out. He has to run this time tho, candidate who "wait their turn" normally lose. (Hillary last example of this). | ||
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
On November 09 2022 14:38 L_Master wrote: How does it prey upon such things? Or, if a different framing helps, how does socialism prevent this preying upon? ---- Wrt to genetics we know that both cognitive ability and personality behave in a way that suggests about 80% of the traits are a result of genetic distributions. The remaining 20% is environmental, but not in ways we know of. It's some combination of things that are not families, social upbringing, education, etc. We do know many things that can be damaging though, including obvious ones like malnourishment, abuse, etc. The ways in which we know are a myriad of different ways, drawing across all major disciplines of the biological sciences: neuroscience we know genetically determined characteristics of intelligent brains vs less-intelligent ones (increased synaptic transmission speed, increased pruning, etc.), we know of the natural eugenic tendencies of civilizations in harsher climates as they moved out of Africa (intelligence generally decreases as you move equatorially -> less hostile climate -> less need for neural adaptability [intelligence]), we have hosts of various studies in psychology as IQ is one of the most studied aspects in the discipline (large aggregate studies, school quality switching, many twin studies across different classes, massive number of longitudinal studies, differences in the shape of distribution across the sexes, incredibly well designed Swedish IVF study from a couple years back that put a huge nail in parenting as a possible hope, etc. we know that AI can predict intelligence and political orientation from faces much better than humans (only possible if genetic), and then we have a massive amount of purely anecdotal/observational data; e.g. regional distributions of intelligence suggesting lowest for sub saharan Africans, higher for south americans and arabs, higher still for the more temperate europeans, and then highest for northern europeans and asians, and everything pretty much lines with up with that in terms of what we see from the achievements of the great civilizations with Asian development of face before truth likely being the reason western culture (truth before face) likely being the reason for European dominance. And that's legitimately like.....scratching the surface of what's out there, but I also really don't want to write a 50 page summary of the entirety of the top couple hundred papers across ten disciplines to give testimony to a reasonably obvious observation. Can't speak to other disciplines but I know that Anthropology would have several mighty bones to pick with a lot of your post, especially Biological and Socio/cultural Anthropologists. | ||
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Introvert
United States4850 Posts
On November 09 2022 14:40 Symplectos wrote: Not needlessly antagonizing people really is DeSantis' strong suit. The same goes for common sense. \s As an European, I am honestly interested in as to how someone as DeSantis can be seen as a good person with common sense, considering each time I hear him speak, he is trolling and behaving like a stubborn child. that's based on the media you consume. Trump used to shoot himself in the foot all the time, DeSantis doesn't. RDS also takes popular positions... his positon on Disney? majority support. the misnamed "Don't say gay bill"? majority support even among Democrats. Hurricane recovery? aced it. when dealing with things like natural disasters he drops the politics and focuses on the work. Winning by 30k votes in 2018 to 1.5 million four years later? Yes, i think the numbers speak to what I'm saying. | ||
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Introvert
United States4850 Posts
On November 09 2022 14:42 Liquid`Drone wrote: While I also think DeSantis has a better chance at winning than Trump, I still strongly hope you can go with him. GOP abandoning Trump is one of many, but perhaps the most important, step towards some achieving some degree of political commonality. I mean, it's not like the old status quo yielded particularly good political results, but imo it was still preferable to the whole union unraveling by its seams thing currently going on. eh, despite nights even like tonight i'm not as pessimistic for the union as some others are. people who learn American history quickly realize that politics in this country has almost always been rancorous, vicious, and swingy. and I know dems have come to despise it, but this is the strength of the federal system. the country WOULD have fallen apart by now without it. I'm concerned about the direction of the country for sure, but the system is resilient. if it goes, it's going to be slower than this. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32742 Posts
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1590220564093886464?s=20&t=AbDIZZHTp42FpVvdumHKNg I'm reading that some of the races for NY's House seats are not going swimmingly for Dems though, so there may be some flips in places like NY-19. | ||
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Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
Also I think he would def come out on top of Trump 1v1 but Trump is a viciously sore loser who won't rally behind someone who beat him like the other GOP politicians. He has taken quite the advantage over the fact that the spotlight has been on Trump for so long. Already people are starting to take a closer look at him now as he gains momentum and we are already seeing stories drop about him like his partying with underage girls story that came out recently. He is Trump with a better coat of paint and if that moniker sticks Dems could be similarly motivated to stop his ascension. Could he win still? Sure, but inflation won't last forever and if the economy is in recovery mode by the next election he will have far less ammunition to strike at Biden with. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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ChristianS
United States3230 Posts
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Introvert
United States4850 Posts
On November 09 2022 15:08 ChristianS wrote: Didn’t DeSantis basically invent the calling people “groomers” thing? Seems like he’s been on the front line of every hot button culture war issue, that’s hardly “not needlessly antagonizing people.” key word "needless" i suppose there is a lot of room there. | ||
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Introvert
United States4850 Posts
On November 09 2022 15:04 Slaughter wrote: I think DeSantis knows how to appeal and galvanize the base same as Trump without saying the quiet parts out loud. Though stunts like shipping immigrants to Martha's Vineyard certainly won't help him in national elections. Crist was not it for Florida Dems Also I think he would def come out on top of Trump 1v1 but Trump is a viciously sore loser who won't rally behind someone who beat him like the other GOP politicians. He has taken quite the advantage over the fact that the spotlight has been on Trump for so long. Already people are starting to take a closer look at him now as he gains momentum and we are already seeing stories drop about him like his partying with underage girls story that came out recently. He is Trump with a better coat of paint and if that moniker sticks Dems could be similarly motivated to stop his ascension. Could he win still? Sure, but inflation won't last forever and if the economy is in recovery mode by the next election he will have far less ammunition to strike at Biden with. that didn't help HWB. He had a recession start and end in his term and was held accountable for it, even though it ended before the election in 92. It's one thing to come into office when things are already bad (Reagan, Obama) another to own them entirely. Remember, Trump was deeply unliked in 2020 and yet Biden barely squeaked past him. Biden is weak, and has been at low approval even before the economy went south (August of last year). and I don't think you can discount his obvious cognitive decline. but things just go interesting for dems, people like Newsom were setting up for a run. now? who knows. edit: to drive this home, president's parties never do this well when they have approval in the low 40s. he's not popular. to me it seems like this is about Trump, who refuses to go away like most normal ex-presidents. | ||
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