US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3805

On November 09 2022 14:34 Introvert wrote:
i was talking earlier about how you can't just chalk a 20 point swing in state (and 50 point swing in one of the largest counties) to candidates. but it does matter, so many of these races are frustratingly close. PA, GA, prob AZ. now the gop could still win 2/3, but it shouldn't have been close. glad I wasn't getting too pollyannaish. still, losing by so small amounts...

time for Trump to go away, time for DeSantis 2024. be a competent executive, take common sense positions, and don't needlessly antagonize people. house going red will still stop the dems agenda, at least. Biden still quite unpopular. would prob still beat trump again, unless his mental decline continues.

On November 09 2022 14:07 GreenHorizons wrote:
Basically Socialism and the markets associated with it do not.

Just as a heads up, I'm highly skeptical of your sociological inferences, they read like a modernized phrenology to me.

time for Trump to go away, time for DeSantis 2024. be a competent executive, take common sense positions, and don't needlessly antagonize people.

On November 09 2022 14:37 Slaughter wrote:


What do you think of the recent Trump attacks on DeSantis? Do you think it will cause any affect on the next election cycle if they start seriously infighting?

On November 09 2022 14:38 L_Master wrote:


How does it prey upon such things?

Or, if a different framing helps, how does socialism prevent this preying upon?

----

Wrt to genetics we know that both cognitive ability and personality behave in a way that suggests about 80% of the traits are a result of genetic distributions. The remaining 20% is environmental, but not in ways we know of. It's some combination of things that are not families, social upbringing, education, etc.

We do know many things that can be damaging though, including obvious ones like malnourishment, abuse, etc.

The ways in which we know are a myriad of different ways, drawing across all major disciplines of the biological sciences: neuroscience we know genetically determined characteristics of intelligent brains vs less-intelligent ones (increased synaptic transmission speed, increased pruning, etc.),

we know of the natural eugenic tendencies of civilizations in harsher climates as they moved out of Africa (intelligence generally decreases as you move equatorially -> less hostile climate -> less need for neural adaptability [intelligence]),

we have hosts of various studies in psychology as IQ is one of the most studied aspects in the discipline (large aggregate studies, school quality switching, many twin studies across different classes, massive number of longitudinal studies, differences in the shape of distribution across the sexes, incredibly well designed Swedish IVF study from a couple years back that put a huge nail in parenting as a possible hope, etc.

we know that AI can predict intelligence and political orientation from faces much better than humans (only possible if genetic),

and then we have a massive amount of purely anecdotal/observational data; e.g. regional distributions of intelligence suggesting lowest for sub saharan Africans, higher for south americans and arabs, higher still for the more temperate europeans, and then highest for northern europeans and asians, and everything pretty much lines with up with that in terms of what we see from the achievements of the great civilizations with Asian development of face before truth likely being the reason western culture (truth before face) likely being the reason for European dominance.

And that's legitimately like.....scratching the surface of what's out there, but I also really don't want to write a 50 page summary of the entirety of the top couple hundred papers across ten disciplines to give testimony to a reasonably obvious observation.

On November 09 2022 14:40 Symplectos wrote:

Not needlessly antagonizing people really is DeSantis' strong suit. The same goes for common sense. \s

As an European, I am honestly interested in as to how someone as DeSantis can be seen as a good person with common sense, considering each time I hear him speak, he is trolling and behaving like a stubborn child.

On November 09 2022 14:42 Liquid`Drone wrote:
While I also think DeSantis has a better chance at winning than Trump, I still strongly hope you can go with him.

GOP abandoning Trump is one of many, but perhaps the most important, step towards some achieving some degree of political commonality. I mean, it's not like the old status quo yielded particularly good political results, but imo it was still preferable to the whole union unraveling by its seams thing currently going on.

On November 09 2022 15:08 ChristianS wrote:
Didn’t DeSantis basically invent the calling people “groomers” thing? Seems like he’s been on the front line of every hot button culture war issue, that’s hardly “not needlessly antagonizing people.”

On November 09 2022 15:04 Slaughter wrote:
I think DeSantis knows how to appeal and galvanize the base same as Trump without saying the quiet parts out loud. Though stunts like shipping immigrants to Martha's Vineyard certainly won't help him in national elections. Crist was not it for Florida Dems

Also I think he would def come out on top of Trump 1v1 but Trump is a viciously sore loser who won't rally behind someone who beat him like the other GOP politicians. He has taken quite the advantage over the fact that the spotlight has been on Trump for so long. Already people are starting to take a closer look at him now as he gains momentum and we are already seeing stories drop about him like his partying with underage girls story that came out recently. He is Trump with a better coat of paint and if that moniker sticks Dems could be similarly motivated to stop his ascension.

Could he win still? Sure, but inflation won't last forever and if the economy is in recovery mode by the next election he will have far less ammunition to strike at Biden with.