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On October 03 2020 04:27 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 04:01 Arghmyliver wrote:On October 03 2020 03:31 Gorsameth wrote:On October 03 2020 03:23 Arghmyliver wrote:
Problem with 45 dying before election is Pence takes control and they can probably at that point risk deploying military and stalling the election under guise of "keeping the peace." 1) the federal government has no control over the election, states decided all that and I don't see the Democratic states pausing an election just because Republican's find it inconvenient. 2) The constitution doesn't care about postponing an election. Middag Jan 20th the current President (be it Trump or Pence) is done, no matter the state of an election or not. In fact I believe without a President or VP-elect Pelosi would become the next POTUS. Pretty sure no Republican wants that to happen. Pence is way more likely to effectively attempt to delay/extend term expiry stall/falsify election results. If it came to such an (albeit unlikely) scenario, I would argue that it would be more likely for the GOP to attempt to stopgap with some kind of appointed layover position than turn power over to Pelosi as you say. term expiring is in the constitution, you can't get around it without amending the constitution which requires the house, senate and a (2/3?) majority of states. Same with any attempt at a stopgap. The US is not a country where your President until after the next election. The Presidential term is hard written to end at noon Jan 20th. To stay President you need to win the electoral college vote. That is why Trump floated the ball for calling the results into question, getting Republican controlled states to appoint their own electors who would ignore the vote and appoint Trump as the winner. Because there is no other possible path to being President on Jan 21st short of a full on coup d'etat.
I think Pence could EO an "Interim" position no? - with control of the senate and SCOTUS (assuming no Nov election).
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Overall this should be pretty bad for trumps elections chances even if he would recover quickly?
Not only because it confronts the voters with how he did handle the disease and because he is for now limited in his campaign and rallies but the disease also has a bit of a stigma.
Storys about people who had the disease beeing avoided by friends afterwards,the potential long term health effects and the effects it can have on the brain. Some voters (specially swing voters who have yet to make up their mind) might have doubts about his health and if he is still fit for office,justified or not.
There is no way this is a hoax or a lie,i dont see how this benefits his chances in the election in any way but maybe i am missing something.
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On October 03 2020 04:39 Arghmyliver wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 04:27 Gorsameth wrote:On October 03 2020 04:01 Arghmyliver wrote:On October 03 2020 03:31 Gorsameth wrote:On October 03 2020 03:23 Arghmyliver wrote:
Problem with 45 dying before election is Pence takes control and they can probably at that point risk deploying military and stalling the election under guise of "keeping the peace." 1) the federal government has no control over the election, states decided all that and I don't see the Democratic states pausing an election just because Republican's find it inconvenient. 2) The constitution doesn't care about postponing an election. Middag Jan 20th the current President (be it Trump or Pence) is done, no matter the state of an election or not. In fact I believe without a President or VP-elect Pelosi would become the next POTUS. Pretty sure no Republican wants that to happen. Pence is way more likely to effectively attempt to delay/extend term expiry stall/falsify election results. If it came to such an (albeit unlikely) scenario, I would argue that it would be more likely for the GOP to attempt to stopgap with some kind of appointed layover position than turn power over to Pelosi as you say. term expiring is in the constitution, you can't get around it without amending the constitution which requires the house, senate and a (2/3?) majority of states. Same with any attempt at a stopgap. The US is not a country where your President until after the next election. The Presidential term is hard written to end at noon Jan 20th. To stay President you need to win the electoral college vote. That is why Trump floated the ball for calling the results into question, getting Republican controlled states to appoint their own electors who would ignore the vote and appoint Trump as the winner. Because there is no other possible path to being President on Jan 21st short of a full on coup d'etat. I think Pence could EO an "Interim" position no? - with control of the senate and SCOTUS (assuming no Nov election).
An EO can't alter something in the Constitution, particularly not something as textually clearcut as this.
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On October 03 2020 04:23 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +Trump leaves in January unless enough electors select him from among the states, period. That a subtle endorsement of the strategy for faithless electors if needed?
I mean you hope states pass enough punitive measures to discourage faithless electors. The electoral college is the selection mechanism.
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On October 03 2020 04:39 Arghmyliver wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 04:27 Gorsameth wrote:On October 03 2020 04:01 Arghmyliver wrote:On October 03 2020 03:31 Gorsameth wrote:On October 03 2020 03:23 Arghmyliver wrote:
Problem with 45 dying before election is Pence takes control and they can probably at that point risk deploying military and stalling the election under guise of "keeping the peace." 1) the federal government has no control over the election, states decided all that and I don't see the Democratic states pausing an election just because Republican's find it inconvenient. 2) The constitution doesn't care about postponing an election. Middag Jan 20th the current President (be it Trump or Pence) is done, no matter the state of an election or not. In fact I believe without a President or VP-elect Pelosi would become the next POTUS. Pretty sure no Republican wants that to happen. Pence is way more likely to effectively attempt to delay/extend term expiry stall/falsify election results. If it came to such an (albeit unlikely) scenario, I would argue that it would be more likely for the GOP to attempt to stopgap with some kind of appointed layover position than turn power over to Pelosi as you say. term expiring is in the constitution, you can't get around it without amending the constitution which requires the house, senate and a (2/3?) majority of states. Same with any attempt at a stopgap. The US is not a country where your President until after the next election. The Presidential term is hard written to end at noon Jan 20th. To stay President you need to win the electoral college vote. That is why Trump floated the ball for calling the results into question, getting Republican controlled states to appoint their own electors who would ignore the vote and appoint Trump as the winner. Because there is no other possible path to being President on Jan 21st short of a full on coup d'etat. I think Pence could EO an "Interim" position no? - with control of the senate and SCOTUS (assuming no Nov election). An EO is not a magic bullet that lets you do whatever you want. No he could not.
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On October 03 2020 04:54 pmh wrote:
Overall this should be pretty bad for trumps elections chances even if he would recover quickly?
Not only because it confronts the voters with how he did handle the disease and because he is for now limited in his campaign and rallies but the disease also has a bit of a stigma.
Storys about people who had the disease beeing avoided by friends afterwards,the potential long term health effects and the effects it can have on the brain. Some voters (specially swing voters who have yet to make up their mind) might have doubts about his health and if he is still fit for office,justified or not.
There is no way this is a hoax or a lie,i dont see how this benefits his chances in the election in any way but maybe i am missing something.
The internet's full of people saying it's a lie that he's using to get out of the debates.
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On October 03 2020 04:39 Arghmyliver wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 04:27 Gorsameth wrote:On October 03 2020 04:01 Arghmyliver wrote:On October 03 2020 03:31 Gorsameth wrote:On October 03 2020 03:23 Arghmyliver wrote:
Problem with 45 dying before election is Pence takes control and they can probably at that point risk deploying military and stalling the election under guise of "keeping the peace." 1) the federal government has no control over the election, states decided all that and I don't see the Democratic states pausing an election just because Republican's find it inconvenient. 2) The constitution doesn't care about postponing an election. Middag Jan 20th the current President (be it Trump or Pence) is done, no matter the state of an election or not. In fact I believe without a President or VP-elect Pelosi would become the next POTUS. Pretty sure no Republican wants that to happen. Pence is way more likely to effectively attempt to delay/extend term expiry stall/falsify election results. If it came to such an (albeit unlikely) scenario, I would argue that it would be more likely for the GOP to attempt to stopgap with some kind of appointed layover position than turn power over to Pelosi as you say. term expiring is in the constitution, you can't get around it without amending the constitution which requires the house, senate and a (2/3?) majority of states. Same with any attempt at a stopgap. The US is not a country where your President until after the next election. The Presidential term is hard written to end at noon Jan 20th. To stay President you need to win the electoral college vote. That is why Trump floated the ball for calling the results into question, getting Republican controlled states to appoint their own electors who would ignore the vote and appoint Trump as the winner. Because there is no other possible path to being President on Jan 21st short of a full on coup d'etat. I think Pence could EO an "Interim" position no? - with control of the senate and SCOTUS (assuming no Nov election).
Pence's term also ends on January 20th. Assuming no election at all, there would be no president, no vp, no congress, and the Democrats would control the Senate since they have a majority among the members who aren't up for re-election. So in theory the Senate Democrats would be able to select the president pro tem. However I'm not sure what extraordinary set of circumstances could possibly lead to no election by then, so speculating about what would result from that is difficult.
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On October 03 2020 05:05 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 04:54 pmh wrote:
Overall this should be pretty bad for trumps elections chances even if he would recover quickly?
Not only because it confronts the voters with how he did handle the disease and because he is for now limited in his campaign and rallies but the disease also has a bit of a stigma.
Storys about people who had the disease beeing avoided by friends afterwards,the potential long term health effects and the effects it can have on the brain. Some voters (specially swing voters who have yet to make up their mind) might have doubts about his health and if he is still fit for office,justified or not.
There is no way this is a hoax or a lie,i dont see how this benefits his chances in the election in any way but maybe i am missing something. The internet's full of people saying it's a lie that he's using to get out of the debates.
The internet is full of shit. Trump loves debates and thinks himself good at it. He would not be shying from one. That's not what I get from the man. I'm pretty sure he is convinced he won the first one (doesn't matter what actually happened).
For Trump/Pence, I'd rather have Pence. I do not mind having a leader with opposite views as me, that's how it is. I loathe having a senseless clown doing damage to the country itself and its foundations.
At least with Pence, you'd have a functioning government, though very conservative and not a president trying to light aflame everything he touches.
About Trump himself, I do hope he gets about the same thing as Johnson : a good scare to realise this is serious shit, then a recovery. Sadly only having mild symptoms is not going to cut it with him... I wish it was, but... (seeing what happened with Bolsonaro...)
edit : I'm pretty amazed they are telling exactly what medicine he is receiving. I'd have thought it mostly a state secret...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news?page=with:block-5f7789d78f080b5d569e3439#block-5f7789d78f080b5d569e3439
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On October 03 2020 05:04 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 04:23 GreenHorizons wrote:Trump leaves in January unless enough electors select him from among the states, period. That a subtle endorsement of the strategy for faithless electors if needed? I mean you hope states pass enough punitive measures to discourage faithless electors. The electoral college is the selection mechanism.
I'm not reading that as a no? Seems you're smart enough to not endorse it in case it doesn't shake out Trump's way but leave the option open that if it does you can "them the rules" it.
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On October 03 2020 05:04 Gorsameth wrote:
An EO is not a magic bullet that lets you do whatever you want. No he could not.
On October 03 2020 04:57 farvacola wrote:
An EO can't alter something in the Constitution, particularly not something as textually clearcut as this.
Obviously it isn't a magic bullet. However, Constitution does not provide guidance on this afaik directly or in the 12th or 25th. You could argue that declaring the position of Interim Pres or whatever is unconstitutional but it may not matter if you control SCOTUS and congress is deadlocked. If senate defaults to kicking out members who are up for election when no election occurs, could lessen risk - not super familiar there. Alternatively you could argue that this constitutes an "election where no candidate receives the required number of electors" and punt to HoR but obv the Reps do not want that.
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Also, keep in mind that a constitution by itself is nothing but paper and has no power. A constitution only has power if people believe it has power.
If Trump just declares he is still president in January after losing the election, whether he actually is president isn't based on what the constitution says. It is based solely on if people keep obeying what he says. Those people might care about the constitution or not. But a constitution by itself has no power.
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“control SCOTUS” is where the leap is, I don’t think that’s an accurate way to describe Trump’s relationship with the court
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Trump's status sounds a lot worse than was implied by the positive test just yesterday. He's symptomatic and has a fever, at the least. He's also taking an experimental treatment (it's in phase 3 with FDA).
“This is an experimental drug that is still just finishing up Phase 3 trials and has not gotten FDA approval yet,” he said. “But they have found in Phase 3 trials that it reduces the viral load in people who are non-hospitalized and have Covid-19.”
Statement from his Dr:
![[image loading]](https://am11.mediaite.com/med/cnt/uploads/2020/10/K.jpeg)
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/breaking-trump-has-a-fever-and-is-fatigued-being-given-experimental-therapeutics/
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On October 03 2020 05:30 Arghmyliver wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 05:04 Gorsameth wrote:
An EO is not a magic bullet that lets you do whatever you want. No he could not.
Show nested quote +On October 03 2020 04:57 farvacola wrote:
An EO can't alter something in the Constitution, particularly not something as textually clearcut as this. Obviously it isn't a magic bullet. However, Constitution does not provide guidance on this afaik directly or in the 12th or 25th. You could argue that declaring the position of Interim Pres or whatever is unconstitutional but it may not matter if you control SCOTUS and congress is deadlocked. If senate defaults to kicking out members who are up for election when no election occurs, could lessen risk - not super familiar there. Alternatively you could argue that this constitutes an "election where no candidate receives the required number of electors" and punt to HoR but obv the Reps do not want that. Its the 20th amendment that your looking for.
Section 1. The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.
Section 2. The Congress shall assemble at least once in every year, and such meeting shall begin at noon on the 3d day of January, unless they shall by law appoint a different day.
Section 3. If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.
Section 4. The Congress may by law provide for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the House of Representatives may choose a President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them, and for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the Senate may choose a Vice President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them.
Section 5. Sections 1 and 2 shall take effect on the 15th day of October following the ratification of this article.
Section 6. This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission.
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WaPo is reporting that Trump is being moved to Walter Reed.
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On October 03 2020 06:14 farvacola wrote:
WaPo is reporting that Trump is being moved to Walter Reed. So much for mild symptoms.
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Removed to Walter Reed AND lack of tweets for a dozen hours is a little concerning. If it's just precautionary, he'll have a sleepy joe tweet out before the day ends.
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Does Trump have the ability to pull off a Dennis Hof?
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That's some fast development. He might've had it for a while then. They are filming Marine One, will be interesting to see if he gets in there on his own power.
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EPT
