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On September 30 2020 08:00 Liquid`Drone wrote:
From 538, looks like Biden 50.2 and Trump 43.2 nationally. Electoral college means Trump wins if the national result is 51/49, maybe even 52/48, but certainly not if it's 55/45. Trump isn't getting any significant number of the 50.2 for Biden, and Biden isn't getting any significant number of the 43.2 for Trump, regardless of how their performance goes.
So a Biden win in this context is showing something like half the undecided voters that he's better than they fear him being.
I think you are under estimating Barr. 100% he will go all-in. I don't think we'll see anything from Barr until at most 2 weeks from the election. My expectation is that something is announced 2 weeks before, then Biden or his family are subpoena'd 3 days before election.
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On September 30 2020 07:55 Belisarius wrote:
What is a Biden win in this context anyway? If you're still voting Trump at this point I can't see anything a democrat says changing your mind.
I feel like Biden has a lot of downside risk and not much upside; it will be disastrous if he screws it up, but if he's flawless, what does it really change?
Trump seems the opposite, he's going to bluster and lie and throw things at the wall the same as always. If you're somehow still undecided, it's not like that will be a surprise, but he has an opportunity to catch Biden out.
Pretty much my view aswell.
How many undecided are there really this time around? This must be one of the most polarised elections in a while.
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Norway28875 Posts
On September 30 2020 08:29 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 07:55 Belisarius wrote:
What is a Biden win in this context anyway? If you're still voting Trump at this point I can't see anything a democrat says changing your mind.
I feel like Biden has a lot of downside risk and not much upside; it will be disastrous if he screws it up, but if he's flawless, what does it really change?
Trump seems the opposite, he's going to bluster and lie and throw things at the wall the same as always. If you're somehow still undecided, it's not like that will be a surprise, but he has an opportunity to catch Biden out.
Pretty much my view aswell. How many undecided are there really this time around? This must be one of the most polarised elections in a while.
As mentioned in my previous post, about 7% undecided right now, and I'm guessing Trump needs to get more than half of those.
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The fact that people are undecided after these last 4 years is a travesty in and of itself. This year alone should have been enough to get minds made up. But hey, as a wise man once said, "This is America."
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As far as political spectrum experience, Biden has Trump crushed, but I'm interested to see how Biden is able to frame exactly what the Democrats stand for this time around.
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For everything saying Trump has nothing to lose forget he is down vs Biden right now. If he just has an average night he is still going to be down. Needs something to reverse the thread. New poll today has him under Biden 3% in Georgia. That should speak volumes about the danger he is in. A subpar debate will get him nothing and he is running out of time.
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On September 30 2020 08:37 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
The fact that people are undecided after these last 4 years is a travesty in and of itself. This year alone should have been enough to get minds made up. But hey, as a wise man once said, "This is America."
My boss saw the music video for the first time recently. It also happened to be a version that was synced up to the audio of "Call me Maybe" because they have the same bpm.
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On September 30 2020 08:46 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 08:37 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
The fact that people are undecided after these last 4 years is a travesty in and of itself. This year alone should have been enough to get minds made up. But hey, as a wise man once said, "This is America." My boss saw the music video for the first time recently. It also happened to be a version that was synced up to the audio of "Call me Maybe" because they have the same bpm.
That is something that should have never occurred. Did you get them the right version at least?
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On September 30 2020 08:47 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 08:46 Gahlo wrote:On September 30 2020 08:37 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
The fact that people are undecided after these last 4 years is a travesty in and of itself. This year alone should have been enough to get minds made up. But hey, as a wise man once said, "This is America." My boss saw the music video for the first time recently. It also happened to be a version that was synced up to the audio of "Call me Maybe" because they have the same bpm. That is something that should have never occurred. Did you get them the right version at least?
I dunno, it's pretty hilarious. She said she's gonna watch it tonight.
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On September 30 2020 08:16 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 08:00 Liquid`Drone wrote:
From 538, looks like Biden 50.2 and Trump 43.2 nationally. Electoral college means Trump wins if the national result is 51/49, maybe even 52/48, but certainly not if it's 55/45. Trump isn't getting any significant number of the 50.2 for Biden, and Biden isn't getting any significant number of the 43.2 for Trump, regardless of how their performance goes.
So a Biden win in this context is showing something like half the undecided voters that he's better than they fear him being. I think you are under estimating Barr. 100% he will go all-in. I don't think we'll see anything from Barr until at most 2 weeks from the election. My expectation is that something is announced 2 weeks before, then Biden or his family are subpoena'd 3 days before election.
Barr's already blown his load in revealing how nakedly partisan he is. Comey hitting Clinton was damaging because he was viewed as the FBI director before a republican, while Barr is the complete opposite.
Barr could have legitimate, convincing proof of anything on any democrat, and I would now assume it was fabricated.
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On September 30 2020 07:59 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 07:36 Zambrah wrote:
I'm predicting this to devolve into insults and Biden challenging Trump to some sort of physical contest or fist fight.
If we're REALLY lucky we'll actually GET the fist fight. I could see a "if this was anything else I'd take trump out behind the barn" kind of comment but I doubt much more. Actual old guy fights are almost always embarrassing but I'd take Biden based on his past athletics and that Trump is the definition of all bark no bite. I think he Biden came at him we would see pure fear, and given the speed at their age it would probably happen really slowly!
If we ARE treated to a fish fight between them Im basically expecting it to go like Kyle vs. Cartman does most of the time in South Park.
Trump obviously being Cartman.
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Norway28875 Posts
On September 30 2020 08:47 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 08:46 Gahlo wrote:On September 30 2020 08:37 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
The fact that people are undecided after these last 4 years is a travesty in and of itself. This year alone should have been enough to get minds made up. But hey, as a wise man once said, "This is America." My boss saw the music video for the first time recently. It also happened to be a version that was synced up to the audio of "Call me Maybe" because they have the same bpm. That is something that should have never occurred. Did you get them the right version at least?
Not to derail, but that synced video is actually pretty amazing.
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I'm more interested in finding that video now than this debate. But I refuse hahaha.
Edit: Gahlo PM'd me the video. I...I...It fucking bangs.
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On September 30 2020 08:53 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 08:16 Mohdoo wrote:On September 30 2020 08:00 Liquid`Drone wrote:
From 538, looks like Biden 50.2 and Trump 43.2 nationally. Electoral college means Trump wins if the national result is 51/49, maybe even 52/48, but certainly not if it's 55/45. Trump isn't getting any significant number of the 50.2 for Biden, and Biden isn't getting any significant number of the 43.2 for Trump, regardless of how their performance goes.
So a Biden win in this context is showing something like half the undecided voters that he's better than they fear him being. I think you are under estimating Barr. 100% he will go all-in. I don't think we'll see anything from Barr until at most 2 weeks from the election. My expectation is that something is announced 2 weeks before, then Biden or his family are subpoena'd 3 days before election. Barr's already blown his load in revealing how nakedly partisan he is. Comey hitting Clinton was damaging because he was viewed as the FBI director before a republican, while Barr is the complete opposite. Barr could have legitimate, convincing proof of anything on any democrat, and I would now assume it was fabricated.
Ya barr has about as much credibility as Ted Cruz. I can't think of anyone that would take anything he brings up at face value that is not a hard core conservative.
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37100 Posts
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United States24784 Posts
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37100 Posts
Everyone, thank you for participating in the debate thread! Thread will now be unlocked and the debate thread will get locked.
The debate thread will reopen on October 7 for the VP debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. We'll lock USPMT again on that date. See you all then!
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On October 02 2020 11:12 Seeker wrote:
Everyone, thank you for participating in the debate thread! Thread will now be unlocked and the debate thread will get locked.
The debate thread will reopen on October 7 for the VP debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. We'll lock USPMT again on that date. See you all then!
Looking forward to the debate! Hoping both sides come with clear ideas and have fun! It's always interesting, because you never know when one of the candidates might change their minds based off of the others' strong arguments.
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EPT
