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On September 30 2020 00:45 Mohdoo wrote:https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/28/new-poll-biden-leads-trump-in-tight-florida-race-trump-ahead-with-hispanics/Show nested quote +Trump outperforms Biden with Hispanics with 43 percent viewing him favorably compared to 40 percent for Biden. And Trump is winning more Hispanic support than Biden, topping him 45-43 percent. This is consistent with a Nevada poll released over the weekend by the Center for American Greatness and with Florida polling conducted by NBC News. Reminder: It is completely and totally ridiculous to lump "Hispanic" voters into a single group. We are not remotely cohesive. Tons of racism within south america directed inwards. Cubans in particular are extremely distinct and the least "connected".
Are you alleging the only reason Trump is leading in Hispanics is that some are racist and not connected?
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On September 30 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 00:45 Mohdoo wrote:https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/28/new-poll-biden-leads-trump-in-tight-florida-race-trump-ahead-with-hispanics/Trump outperforms Biden with Hispanics with 43 percent viewing him favorably compared to 40 percent for Biden. And Trump is winning more Hispanic support than Biden, topping him 45-43 percent. This is consistent with a Nevada poll released over the weekend by the Center for American Greatness and with Florida polling conducted by NBC News. Reminder: It is completely and totally ridiculous to lump "Hispanic" voters into a single group. We are not remotely cohesive. Tons of racism within south america directed inwards. Cubans in particular are extremely distinct and the least "connected". Are you alleging the only reason Trump is leading in Hispanics is that some are racist and not connected?
Nope, saying that lumping hispanics into a single group doesn't make sense. No different than saying asians or europeans. And since florida has a shit load of Cubans, it is even less representative of hispanics as a whole because Cubans are notably less similar to the already dissimilar group of hispanics
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On September 30 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 00:45 Mohdoo wrote:https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/28/new-poll-biden-leads-trump-in-tight-florida-race-trump-ahead-with-hispanics/Trump outperforms Biden with Hispanics with 43 percent viewing him favorably compared to 40 percent for Biden. And Trump is winning more Hispanic support than Biden, topping him 45-43 percent. This is consistent with a Nevada poll released over the weekend by the Center for American Greatness and with Florida polling conducted by NBC News. Reminder: It is completely and totally ridiculous to lump "Hispanic" voters into a single group. We are not remotely cohesive. Tons of racism within south america directed inwards. Cubans in particular are extremely distinct and the least "connected". Are you alleging the only reason Trump is leading in Hispanics is that some are racist and not connected?
As found in a poll by the Center for American Greatness... I'd take it with a bigger grain of salt than Rasmussen!
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On September 30 2020 02:20 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:On September 30 2020 00:45 Mohdoo wrote:https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/28/new-poll-biden-leads-trump-in-tight-florida-race-trump-ahead-with-hispanics/Trump outperforms Biden with Hispanics with 43 percent viewing him favorably compared to 40 percent for Biden. And Trump is winning more Hispanic support than Biden, topping him 45-43 percent. This is consistent with a Nevada poll released over the weekend by the Center for American Greatness and with Florida polling conducted by NBC News. Reminder: It is completely and totally ridiculous to lump "Hispanic" voters into a single group. We are not remotely cohesive. Tons of racism within south america directed inwards. Cubans in particular are extremely distinct and the least "connected". Are you alleging the only reason Trump is leading in Hispanics is that some are racist and not connected? As found in a poll by the Center for American Greatness... I'd take it with a bigger grain of salt than Rasmussen!
So the group that's proclaiming Hispanics actually support Trump is the same group that claims Democrats want more Hispanic immigrants because they vote Democratic? Some interesting mental gymnastics going on here.
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I hope the debate will be more than an infomercial/clown show. Won't get my hopes up though. Will be interesting to see the two side by side for the first time at least.
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On September 30 2020 04:45 Starlightsun wrote:
I hope the debate will be more than an infomercial/clown show. Won't get my hopes up though. Will be interesting to see the two side by side for the first time at least. It has Trump, I think a clown show is guaranteed, but atleast it might be interesting to see if he talks about anything other then a rigged election and immigrant caravans.
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I'm not really sure how Trump's performance tonight could be impactful. Biden on the other hand has a pretty straightforward task in front of him. I view these debates as squarely in Biden's best interest, the opportunity is there for the taking because Trump's behavior should have no direct impact on Biden's ability to answer questions concisely. He has to demonstrate clearly that he does not have dementia. It could get murky because he might have a good performance tonight but the next debate he looks shaky.
My intuition is that if the question of Biden's mental clarity remains due to varying performances across debates; the tie will go in Trump's favor for the undecided voters who count.
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On September 30 2020 06:15 Gorgonoth wrote:
I'm not really sure how Trump's performance tonight could be impactful. Biden on the other hand has a pretty straightforward task in front of him. I view these debates as squarely in Biden's best interest, the opportunity is there for the taking because Trump's behavior should have no direct impact on Biden's ability to answer questions concisely. He has to demonstrate clearly that he does not have dementia. It could get murky because he might have a good performance tonight but the next debate he looks shaky.
My intuition is that if the question of Biden's mental clarity remains due to varying performances across debates; the tie will go in Trump's favor for the undecided voters who count.
If one of them appears notably more senile than the other, I think it will have an impact.
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FiveThirtyEight has some worthwhile breakdowns of the pre-debate environment.
-They poll more voters going Biden's way, but Trump expected to win the debate by a hair
-Voters are similarly enthusiastic and excited to vote for either candidate, which pokes another hole in this myth of Biden having no enthusiasm and Trump holding a monopoly on it
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-debate-poll/
-First debates rarely lead to a meaningful shift in the voting preferences and are mostly temporary bumps for the perceived winner
-Very polarized political environment today means it's unlikely that debates will shift voters' minds on either candidate
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-first-presidential-debate-shake-up-the-race/
Biden has more to lose if he has flimsy debates with noticeable malapropisms that falls into the attack that he's senile, and an inability to defend his record like we saw during the primaries. But the bar has been set so low at Biden being some drooling dementia-ridden grandpa that if he summons up the sharp debater he was against Paul Ryan in 2012 or the voice he had in his DNC acceptance speech, I think he'll surprise even some skeptics. Though I bet there will be the excuses lined up that Biden was drugged on stimulants or using a teleprompter if this happens.
Trump is going to be Trump, what can I say. Worth noting he wasn't deemed the winner of the debates against Clinton by a long shot according to some reputable polling, which further reinforces my idea that Trump isn't a strong debater and that they really don't change minds except in cases like an outrageously good performance or an extremely poor one. If Trump does well or Biden fumbles hard, I'd think it's one of Trump's saving graces at taking undecided voters who dislike Trump but are usually uncertain about Biden's mental fitness as their main disqualifier.
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Tonight is the night.
Its going to be dirty according to cnn. (they have to sell their coverage)
Both will be trying to get under the opponents skin,trump attacking bidens son,biden attacking trumps tax returns where mentioned amongst no doubt many other low balls.
Cnn seems to be less in favor of biden then they where say a few months ago but maybe thats just my imagination. Republicans now get a lot more airtime to make their case,a republican from ohio explaining to wolf blitzer how happy they are with the judges apointed and all.
Both will be heavily prepared,specially biden. Trump i think will improvise more and maybe he can surprise biden.
Biden has to hold it together and if he can get under trumps skin,make him angry,then that will be a bonus.
Trump is a slight favorite imo. A small disapointment i think is quiet likely,its only the first debate and maybe both will take it slow. Its all about apearences and not so much about substance,as it is often the case with the presidential debates in the usa.
I will go with a 5th option,a tie with neither looking very good nor embarassingly bad. A small disapointed overall when compared to the high expectations.
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Norway28797 Posts
Trump isn't gonna prepare. He's never prepared for anything in his life and isn't about to start. (This isn't really me insulting him, I think willingness and ability to improvise is one of his strongest sides as a politician.)
I do agree with your last sentence tho pmh, I picture a mehdiocre performance from both. (Which might be good for Biden, in that being mediocre beats expectations, and because his mental acuity is a bigger question mark for Biden than it is for Trump. Not stating that Biden is more senile than he is - but everybody who considers Trump senile is already voting Biden, while I picture some of the undecideds would be put off by Biden looking off.
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Biden's just gotta not leave the night with an embarrassing soundbite/awkward reaction that can be meme'd until the last day to vote and it's a win for him.
I'll personally be embarrassed these two jackasses are the best our country could summon even if they both overperform though.
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I'm predicting this to devolve into insults and Biden challenging Trump to some sort of physical contest or fist fight.
If we're REALLY lucky we'll actually GET the fist fight.
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I don't see Biden breaking the decorum
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I've never actually been excited for a presidential debate in my life until now. Hopefully it's as entertaining as I believe it will be 
I'm backing up Zambrah's prediction. Waiting to see uncle Joe shadowboxing backstage.
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What is a Biden win in this context anyway? If you're still voting Trump at this point I can't see anything a democrat says changing your mind.
I feel like Biden has a lot of downside risk and not much upside; it will be disastrous if he screws it up, but if he's flawless, what does it really change?
Trump seems the opposite, he's going to bluster and lie and throw things at the wall the same as always. If you're somehow still undecided, it's not like that will be a surprise, but he has an opportunity to catch Biden out.
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If they don't bring up Trump's taxes I'm gunna be pissed. 
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Norway28797 Posts
From 538, looks like Biden 50.2 and Trump 43.2 nationally. Electoral college means Trump wins if the national result is 51/49, maybe even 52/48, but certainly not if it's 55/45. Trump isn't getting any significant number of the 50.2 for Biden, and Biden isn't getting any significant number of the 43.2 for Trump, regardless of how their performance goes.
So a Biden win in this context is showing something like half the undecided voters that he's better than they fear him being.
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EPT
