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On September 10 2020 05:46 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 05:38 Nouar wrote:On September 10 2020 05:03 JimmiC wrote:The hits keep coming. Another whistle-blower complaint that Trump and team withheld information and lied to the American people. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schiff-whistleblower-complaint-russian-intel-reports“The whistleblower retaliation complaint filed by former Acting Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis Brian Murphy outlines grave and disturbing allegations that senior White House and Department of Homeland Security officials improperly sought to politicize, manipulate, and censor intelligence in order to benefit President Trump politically,” Schiff said in a statement. “This puts our nation and its security at grave risk.” Schiff went on to call Murphy’s allegations “serious,” saying they include senior administration officials allegedly “suppressing intelligence reports on Russia’s election interference and making false statements to Congress about terrorism threats at our southern border, to modifying intelligence assessments to match the president’s rhetoric on Antifa and minimizing the threat posed by white supremacists.” “We’ve received a whistleblower complaint alleging DHS suppressed intel reports on Russian election interference, altered intel to match false Trump claims and made false statements to Congress,” Schiff, D-Calif., tweeted Wednesday afternoon. “This puts our national security at risk.” To put in relation with this excerpt : -- Woodward reports new details on Russia's election meddling, writing that the NSA and CIA have classified evidence the Russians had placed malware in the election registration systems of at least two Florida counties, St. Lucie and Washington. While there was no evidence the malware had been activated, Woodward writes, it was sophisticated and could erase voters in specific districts. The voting system vendor used by Florida was also used in states across the country. Putting that in context with Trusting Putin and Kim over his own people. Not to mention the bounties he ignored, military comments. It is so scary that this nitwit is in charge of the most powerful country in the world. The more and more you find out, on top of the narcissism and not being a nice person he is just stupid. He is so under qualified it is mind boggling. He just does not have the horsepower. I mean even the spin that he had to lie to the American people to keep them "calm". First if you think this is right then you have to agree that you are too stupid to make good choices (which is probably true of many of Trumps supporters at this point). And you have to have such incredible faith in this man who has a huge history of cheating people (trump university, his charity, the 100's of law suits he has lost, so on and so forth) that this time he is doing whats best for you. And then why would he do this? Because he just loves America so much? Does not seem like it when he trusts all of American's enemies more than he does its own people. I expect some day to read "how an unintelligent grifter born to great wealth was able to con america into becoming their president".
Still, all those things matter less to people than keeping guns and denying others abortion I guess. I have lost all hope towards the USA I had a few years ago. I thought it was heading slowly in the right direction, but seeing Trump still be in contention for the presidency after all that. No way in hell.
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On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it.
Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses.
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On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses.
That's only if there is no constitutional crisis due to early numbers calling it for Trump, before mail-in results come. The rift will have no bottom and I'm betting my money on that, sadly...
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It is also pretty scary how easy it will be this time to have a 269/269 tie. It would take Pennsylvania flipping, but the aggregate is only at +5 Biden so I can see it happening.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/OlbbZ
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On September 10 2020 06:01 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses. Imagine calls from the right to "defund the police" as Trump, his cronies and various white supremacists are being arrested.
"Patriots ILLEGALLY arrested by the VIOLENT OPPRESSIVE STATE!"
Is roughly what I'm expecting to hear in various degrees.
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This is so depressing already. Earlier this week my state had a bunch of "Trump caravans" driving around. We are living in alternate realities.
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On September 10 2020 05:53 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 05:48 Nouar wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2020 05:38 Nouar wrote:On September 10 2020 05:03 JimmiC wrote:The hits keep coming. Another whistle-blower complaint that Trump and team withheld information and lied to the American people. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schiff-whistleblower-complaint-russian-intel-reports“The whistleblower retaliation complaint filed by former Acting Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis Brian Murphy outlines grave and disturbing allegations that senior White House and Department of Homeland Security officials improperly sought to politicize, manipulate, and censor intelligence in order to benefit President Trump politically,” Schiff said in a statement. “This puts our nation and its security at grave risk.” Schiff went on to call Murphy’s allegations “serious,” saying they include senior administration officials allegedly “suppressing intelligence reports on Russia’s election interference and making false statements to Congress about terrorism threats at our southern border, to modifying intelligence assessments to match the president’s rhetoric on Antifa and minimizing the threat posed by white supremacists.” “We’ve received a whistleblower complaint alleging DHS suppressed intel reports on Russian election interference, altered intel to match false Trump claims and made false statements to Congress,” Schiff, D-Calif., tweeted Wednesday afternoon. “This puts our national security at risk.” To put in relation with this excerpt : -- Woodward reports new details on Russia's election meddling, writing that the NSA and CIA have classified evidence the Russians had placed malware in the election registration systems of at least two Florida counties, St. Lucie and Washington. While there was no evidence the malware had been activated, Woodward writes, it was sophisticated and could erase voters in specific districts. The voting system vendor used by Florida was also used in states across the country. Putting that in context with Trusting Putin and Kim over his own people. Not to mention the bounties he ignored, military comments. It is so scary that this nitwit is in charge of the most powerful country in the world. The more and more you find out, on top of the narcissism and not being a nice person he is just stupid. He is so under qualified it is mind boggling. He just does not have the horsepower. I mean even the spin that he had to lie to the American people to keep them "calm". First if you think this is right then you have to agree that you are too stupid to make good choices (which is probably true of many of Trumps supporters at this point). And you have to have such incredible faith in this man who has a huge history of cheating people (trump university, his charity, the 100's of law suits he has lost, so on and so forth) that this time he is doing whats best for you. And then why would he do this? Because he just loves America so much? Does not seem like it when he trusts all of American's enemies more than he does its own people. I expect some day to read "how an unintelligent grifter born to great wealth was able to con america into becoming their president". Still, all those things matter less to people than keeping guns and denying others abortion I guess. I have lost all hope towards the USA I had a few years ago. I thought it was heading slowly in the right direction, but seeing Trump still be in contention for the presidency after all that. No way in hell. it is frightening when people can look at Donald and think "this is a godly man here to protect our Christian values". The dude is the poster boy for the 7 deadly sins had broken most of the commandments proudly. It is strongly fascinating but oh so disturbing.
If you grew up evangelical (as I did) then it makes perfect sense. I grew up bordering on the dominionists, was given Falwell books growing up that advised masturbation was a sin, that sort of thing. Evangelicals are largely some of the most vile, hypocritical scum of the earth. There are exceptions but they're pretty rare. It's mostly an excuse to gather together in a racist, misogynistic, tribalistic group of like minded people and perform the occasional business deal. If there's a part of the bible that won't let them put someone else down or grift for money then it's entirely ignored. These aren't the people clutching pearls over someone taking god's name in vain, they're clutching pearls over anything depicting women as not subservient to men or that depicts something they're afraid of in a positive light. I'd literally describe Trump as on the better side of evangelical figures of power I've met in my life.
Many evangelicals are end times cultists who want the US government replaced with a christian theocracy. They want world war 3 to happen so that Jesus will come back to earth again. That's why they're fine with Trump - he is setting up Israel/Iran in a way reminiscent of certain things in revelations (or at least, their interpretations of it) and irritates all the people who tell them that 5th trimester abortions aren't a thing and that they really need to stop talking women's health until they know basic facts. They're not just the people shouting "The End is Coming!", they're the people shouting "The End is Coming, and this is what we need to do to make it come faster!"
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On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office.
I think 10% is wishful thinking. For a large part of America, he's doing a fine job. He's unfavoured to win at this point (who knows in November!), but the gap isn't that large.
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On September 10 2020 06:31 EnDeR_ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. I think 10% is wishful thinking. For a large part of America, he's doing a fine job. He's unfavoured to win at this point (who knows in November!), but the gap isn't that large.
Biden is up by roughly 7.5%, and this is the high water mark for the GOP nominee, usually - right after the convention. He only shaved off 1-1.5% from Biden's lead.
We're less than 8 weeks from the election. Polls are quite predictive now, though not perfect. Short of a black swan event, Trump isn't winning the popular vote. The only reason I think he even has 10% is due to an electoral college advantage.
If Trump can get Biden's lead down to 3% then Trump is favored, but not 100% favored, still - just slightly favored.
So Trump needs to get at least 4.5% more people to stay home. I don't see it happening, and doubt he can flip more than a miniscule amount.
For note, 538's predictions right now are 26% Trump - but that doesn't factor in things like Trump having a really chaotic campaign that's almost run of money, and is a lagging indicator - it gives the status of the race 3-4 days ago. He's fired his campaign manager and lost Kellyanne. Trump's approval, is as always, 40-43%. He needs at least 4% more to win.
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538 predictions also consider that we are some months from the election. If the election was tomorrow, the odds would be substantially better for Biden.
I don’t like Biden but polling suggests that they haven’t really found anything that sticks on Biden in a meaningful way, despite what a lot of my comrades in this thread think. He’s too boring of a candidate, people aren’t buying attacks that he or Harris are more left wing than Sanders. That’s half of their appeal to suburbanites all across America.
The other problem is that they’re running a strange campaign where they’re suggesting Biden is president right now and only Trump can save America from Trump. It might be appealing to the base but it’s an argument that makes no sense. They should be attacking Biden from a policy perspective but they’re not really doing that and just relying on the type of attacks used similarly by Hillary Clinton. The only thing really keeping Trump afloat are our 401k with the amount of pumping they’re doing right now and that isn’t me downplaying this, I know a lot of people’s who have basically doubled in value.
Edit: More specifically, this is Trump's problem in 2020 vs 2016:
Its pretty consistent in polling, Biden might be weaker than Clinton with people of colour (reason why his Florida polls are all over the place) but it might not matter when he's appealing to traditionally Republican demographics that vote reliably. I like Sanders but the youth did not bother turning out.
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On September 10 2020 06:13 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 06:01 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses. Imagine calls from the right to "defund the police" as Trump, his cronies and various white supremacists are being arrested. "Patriots ILLEGALLY arrested by the VIOLENT OPPRESSIVE STATE!" Is roughly what I'm expecting to hear in various degrees.
lmao who do you guys think would be arresting Trump and and these white supremacists? Law enforcement and white supremacy are like peas and carrots.
There might not be another occupational category besides law enforcement where Trump and white supremacy enjoy such support.
White supremacist groups have infiltrated US law enforcement agencies in every region of the country over the last two decades, according to a new report about the ties between police and far-right vigilante groups.
In a timely new analysis, Michael German, a former FBI special agent who has written extensively on the ways that US law enforcement have failed to respond to far-right domestic terror threats, concludes that US law enforcement officials have been tied to racist militant activities in more than a dozen states since 2000, and hundreds of police officers have been caught posting racist and bigoted social media content.
Police in Sacramento, California, in 2018 worked with neo-Nazis to pursue charges against anti-racist activists, including some who had been stabbed, according to records.
www.theguardian.com
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On September 10 2020 07:47 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 07:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On September 10 2020 06:13 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 06:01 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses. Imagine calls from the right to "defund the police" as Trump, his cronies and various white supremacists are being arrested. "Patriots ILLEGALLY arrested by the VIOLENT OPPRESSIVE STATE!" Is roughly what I'm expecting to hear in various degrees. lmao who do you guys think would be arresting Trump and and these white supremacists? Law enforcement and white supremacy are like peas and carrots. There might not be another occupational category besides law enforcement where Trump and white supremacy enjoy such support. White supremacist groups have infiltrated US law enforcement agencies in every region of the country over the last two decades, according to a new report about the ties between police and far-right vigilante groups.
In a timely new analysis, Michael German, a former FBI special agent who has written extensively on the ways that US law enforcement have failed to respond to far-right domestic terror threats, concludes that US law enforcement officials have been tied to racist militant activities in more than a dozen states since 2000, and hundreds of police officers have been caught posting racist and bigoted social media content.
Police in Sacramento, California, in 2018 worked with neo-Nazis to pursue charges against anti-racist activists, including some who had been stabbed, according to records. www.theguardian.com I suspect it would be the police, + Show Spoiler + I bet you would be surprised about how fast these guys would throw each other under the bus to serve the new leadership. And if they won't it would be the military, if there is a group that really really dislikes Trump it is military leadership. If Trump takes a resounding defeat I expect a lot of other domino's to fall shortly after.
Only a few months away we might as well start making predictions! Of course you would.
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On September 10 2020 07:36 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 06:13 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 06:01 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses. Imagine calls from the right to "defund the police" as Trump, his cronies and various white supremacists are being arrested. "Patriots ILLEGALLY arrested by the VIOLENT OPPRESSIVE STATE!" Is roughly what I'm expecting to hear in various degrees. lmao who do you guys think would be arresting Trump and and these white supremacists? Law enforcement and white supremacy are like peas and carrots. There might not be another occupational category besides law enforcement where Trump and white supremacy enjoy such support. Show nested quote +White supremacist groups have infiltrated US law enforcement agencies in every region of the country over the last two decades, according to a new report about the ties between police and far-right vigilante groups.
In a timely new analysis, Michael German, a former FBI special agent who has written extensively on the ways that US law enforcement have failed to respond to far-right domestic terror threats, concludes that US law enforcement officials have been tied to racist militant activities in more than a dozen states since 2000, and hundreds of police officers have been caught posting racist and bigoted social media content.
Police in Sacramento, California, in 2018 worked with neo-Nazis to pursue charges against anti-racist activists, including some who had been stabbed, according to records. www.theguardian.com
I didnt say police, I said White House security, the police probably won't be involved, the Secret Service will likely kick him out if he loses, he doesn't seem well liked enough to pull even a minor sort of coup with government support. Armed militia jackasses, yes, they could certainly come out in droves (and probably will including off-duty and on-duty and former and current pigs) but I'm relatively confident that if Trump is confirmed to have lost the election and refuses to vacate the White House that noone will be able to keep him in the building when Biden arrives and the Secret Service escort him out. Now once hes out the threshold of the doors, who the fuck knows what happens, but I doubt he'd succeed in holing up in the White House if he tried.
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On September 10 2020 07:51 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 07:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On September 10 2020 06:13 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 06:01 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses. Imagine calls from the right to "defund the police" as Trump, his cronies and various white supremacists are being arrested. "Patriots ILLEGALLY arrested by the VIOLENT OPPRESSIVE STATE!" Is roughly what I'm expecting to hear in various degrees. lmao who do you guys think would be arresting Trump and and these white supremacists? Law enforcement and white supremacy are like peas and carrots. There might not be another occupational category besides law enforcement where Trump and white supremacy enjoy such support. White supremacist groups have infiltrated US law enforcement agencies in every region of the country over the last two decades, according to a new report about the ties between police and far-right vigilante groups.
In a timely new analysis, Michael German, a former FBI special agent who has written extensively on the ways that US law enforcement have failed to respond to far-right domestic terror threats, concludes that US law enforcement officials have been tied to racist militant activities in more than a dozen states since 2000, and hundreds of police officers have been caught posting racist and bigoted social media content.
Police in Sacramento, California, in 2018 worked with neo-Nazis to pursue charges against anti-racist activists, including some who had been stabbed, according to records. www.theguardian.com I didnt say police, I said White House security, the police probably won't be involved, the Secret Service will likely kick him out if he loses, he doesn't seem well liked enough to pull even a minor sort of coup with government support. Armed militia jackasses, yes, they could certainly come out in droves (and probably will including off-duty and on-duty and former and current pigs) but I'm relatively confident that if Trump is confirmed to have lost the election and refuses to vacate the White House that noone will be able to keep him in the building when Biden arrives and the Secret Service escort him out. Now once hes out the threshold of the doors, who the fuck knows what happens, but I doubt he'd succeed in holing up in the White House if he tried.
The mistake is thinking there will be some definitive and unquestionable election result. It's much more likely to be a Bush-Gore type scenario with Trump refusing to admit defeat and Democrats caving (presuming they did technically win).
It's unlikely Democrats would be willing to even risk a violent confrontation were they able to find people with the authority and willingness to try and remove him.
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On September 10 2020 08:08 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 07:51 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 07:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On September 10 2020 06:13 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 06:01 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:On September 10 2020 04:05 Nevuk wrote:
I think Woodward should have released this in March, or at the latest, April. Sitting on it until september seems crazy to me. Sure, it's better for his book sales and Biden's election chances, but it seems crazy irresponsible to not put this out after we passed 10k deaths. Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there? I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses. Imagine calls from the right to "defund the police" as Trump, his cronies and various white supremacists are being arrested. "Patriots ILLEGALLY arrested by the VIOLENT OPPRESSIVE STATE!" Is roughly what I'm expecting to hear in various degrees. lmao who do you guys think would be arresting Trump and and these white supremacists? Law enforcement and white supremacy are like peas and carrots. There might not be another occupational category besides law enforcement where Trump and white supremacy enjoy such support. White supremacist groups have infiltrated US law enforcement agencies in every region of the country over the last two decades, according to a new report about the ties between police and far-right vigilante groups.
In a timely new analysis, Michael German, a former FBI special agent who has written extensively on the ways that US law enforcement have failed to respond to far-right domestic terror threats, concludes that US law enforcement officials have been tied to racist militant activities in more than a dozen states since 2000, and hundreds of police officers have been caught posting racist and bigoted social media content.
Police in Sacramento, California, in 2018 worked with neo-Nazis to pursue charges against anti-racist activists, including some who had been stabbed, according to records. www.theguardian.com I didnt say police, I said White House security, the police probably won't be involved, the Secret Service will likely kick him out if he loses, he doesn't seem well liked enough to pull even a minor sort of coup with government support. Armed militia jackasses, yes, they could certainly come out in droves (and probably will including off-duty and on-duty and former and current pigs) but I'm relatively confident that if Trump is confirmed to have lost the election and refuses to vacate the White House that noone will be able to keep him in the building when Biden arrives and the Secret Service escort him out. Now once hes out the threshold of the doors, who the fuck knows what happens, but I doubt he'd succeed in holing up in the White House if he tried. The mistake is thinking there will be some definitive and unquestionable election result. It's much more likely to be a Bush-Gore type scenario with Trump refusing to admit defeat and Democrats caving (presuming they did technically win). It's unlikely Democrats would be willing to even risk a violent confrontation were they able to find people with the authority and willingness to try and remove him.
He's either going to win the electoral college or he isnt. And yeah if there's any actual legwork to be done if Trump loses the electoral college or ties or whatever, I fully expect Democrats to throw their hands up, say "nothing to be done here!" and start attacking Bernie Sanders and Progressives.
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On September 10 2020 09:02 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2020 08:08 GreenHorizons wrote:On September 10 2020 07:51 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 07:36 GreenHorizons wrote:On September 10 2020 06:13 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 06:01 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2020 05:54 Zambrah wrote:On September 10 2020 05:46 NewSunshine wrote:On September 10 2020 05:13 Nevuk wrote:On September 10 2020 05:04 Sermokala wrote:
[quote]
Do you think anything will actualy change now that this is out there?
I'm convinced trump is going to win somehow and I don't know what to think anymore. Not really. It would've mattered back in march, since it's an exponential growth. Politically it won't hurt him with his base, but that he kept the info from his campaign may have a pile on effect. Trump has a chance but I think it's lower than 10%. Biden has to make a ton of errors on top of nothing else bad coming out for Trump. Bad stuff is going to keep dropping for Trump, it's just how he's always worked and everyone that was holding back out of caution will be unloading in October. I'm more concerned about the inevitable violence, or the chance that Trump wins big on election day and then tries to ignore all mail-in votes and has to be forced out of office. Trump has never given anyone reason to expect he'll actually surrender his office peaceably if he loses. Expect anything from rampant declarations of Democratic hoaxes and conspiracies with no evidence, to potential violence solicited from his gun-toting supporters that want to see if Trump can get 3 terms or more. Basically, he's already been laying the groundwork for all the excuses and calls to violence he's going to make when he loses, because he's already been doing it. Whether or not he leaves peacefully (at least non-bloodshed, he might have to be carried out by security, but Id file that under peaceful) is definitely going to be his psychotic proud boy scumbag crowd. If they try and pull some shit I actually expect a SERIOUS crack down from the White House security people, because I guarantee they are not going to be on Trump's side if he loses. Imagine calls from the right to "defund the police" as Trump, his cronies and various white supremacists are being arrested. "Patriots ILLEGALLY arrested by the VIOLENT OPPRESSIVE STATE!" Is roughly what I'm expecting to hear in various degrees. lmao who do you guys think would be arresting Trump and and these white supremacists? Law enforcement and white supremacy are like peas and carrots. There might not be another occupational category besides law enforcement where Trump and white supremacy enjoy such support. White supremacist groups have infiltrated US law enforcement agencies in every region of the country over the last two decades, according to a new report about the ties between police and far-right vigilante groups.
In a timely new analysis, Michael German, a former FBI special agent who has written extensively on the ways that US law enforcement have failed to respond to far-right domestic terror threats, concludes that US law enforcement officials have been tied to racist militant activities in more than a dozen states since 2000, and hundreds of police officers have been caught posting racist and bigoted social media content.
Police in Sacramento, California, in 2018 worked with neo-Nazis to pursue charges against anti-racist activists, including some who had been stabbed, according to records. www.theguardian.com I didnt say police, I said White House security, the police probably won't be involved, the Secret Service will likely kick him out if he loses, he doesn't seem well liked enough to pull even a minor sort of coup with government support. Armed militia jackasses, yes, they could certainly come out in droves (and probably will including off-duty and on-duty and former and current pigs) but I'm relatively confident that if Trump is confirmed to have lost the election and refuses to vacate the White House that noone will be able to keep him in the building when Biden arrives and the Secret Service escort him out. Now once hes out the threshold of the doors, who the fuck knows what happens, but I doubt he'd succeed in holing up in the White House if he tried. The mistake is thinking there will be some definitive and unquestionable election result. It's much more likely to be a Bush-Gore type scenario with Trump refusing to admit defeat and Democrats caving (presuming they did technically win). It's unlikely Democrats would be willing to even risk a violent confrontation were they able to find people with the authority and willingness to try and remove him. He's either going to win the electoral college or he isnt. And yeah if there's any actual legwork to be done if Trump loses the electoral college or ties or whatever, I fully expect Democrats to throw their hands up, say "nothing to be done here!" and start attacking Bernie Sanders and Progressives.
As has been pointed out 269 - 269 isn't off the table. More realistically what we'll have is a couple of swing states with results that can be validly contested and a couple deep blue/red states with the same. The details will be muddled among them and the winner will be whoever the voter voted for to them.
Any scenario that isn't a walk-off win for Biden ends in another Trump term. One wildcard is that this is sorta like Bush in 08 where the next president will have to push policy people don't like (austerity in this case) due to their ideological/donors limitations.
People should probably spend a bit more time interrogating the notion that vote results will pierce the anti-reality shield of most of Trump's supporters as well.
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EPT
