EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2607
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On September 06 2020 12:34 iamthedave wrote: Really? Other than we've had four years of him, does Trump really look more awful than he did in 2016? The problem as I see it is the same one that screwed Hilary; principled Dems don't like Biden much because he's dodgy and there's a host of reasons not to vote for him, while the Republicans will come together and vote for Trump. Everything looks set to go the same as it did in 2016, unless the black vote gets out in force not because they like Biden but because they're sick of the current administration and just want to sock it to them. Otherwise... I don't see where Biden gets the votes he needs. Moderates probably do like him more, so there's that I suppose. By polls alone, Biden definitely has an advantage at this point. It's not a "comfortable" lead by any stretch, but it's a lead nonetheless. Trump just isn't all that popular, especially after bungling this coronavirus thing something fierce. This is 100% going to be a referendum on Trump's presidency, and we'll see if the popular indifferent-at-best popular view of Biden beats out over the prospect of 4 more years of Trump. I'd say that it's more likely than not that Biden edges it out. Admittedly I find it hard to justify voting for Biden after his Harris pick. Not because it's harder to swallow than the Hillary ticket, but because going along with that Dem game like a lemming isn't my cup of tea. Probably going with the GH "third party" camp at this point. Maybe, if enough people vote like that... it will indeed play out exactly like '16. | ||
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StalkerTL
212 Posts
The polling itself, ignoring online heavy pollsters who put out polls in the immediate aftermath of the RNC and DNC, has shown a very consistent Biden lead of 6-10 points. Its a referendum on Trump's presidency and his method of governance has in him in the media every single day of the 4 years. There's just not many undecideds this election because there's no way you can avoid hearing about Trump, whether through the media or through social media. There's a lot of garbage happening all around America to delegitimize the election, such as the Trump Administration doing their very best efforts to cripple the USPS so mail voting may come in later than sooner. So obviously Biden can lose pretty easily. But the polling wouldn't suggest this at all and obviously can't take into account things like voter suppression and the voting behaviour during the coronavirus. I don't believe third parties are going to spoil the election for either side. Name recognition of the Greens and Libertarian candidate is close to non-existent in polling and more importantly there's few undecideds compared to 2016 where both Trump and Clinton were polling in the low 40s (and even the 30s in some states!). If there was ever a sign that Clinton was in trouble, it was the sheer number of undecideds and her inability to poll higher than something like 45%. Compare that to the consistent low-mid 40s for Trump and Biden consistently hitting 50. Even the single Kanye presidential poll I've seen suggests he has little pull and if he does have any pull he probably pulls more Trump voters than Democratic voters (not surprising, his campaign has been extremely evangelical). | ||
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
On September 06 2020 13:19 JimmiC wrote: Pretty sure the Dems know that the left of Bernie vote is not coming their way and makes up a super tiny amount of the voting public. Communism is so unpopular in the USA it is the first attack the Reps use. If you want Trump out you are glad the Biden is sticking to the middle since that is what won him, by a lot, the Dem nomination. Doesn't the Dem nomination involve a shit ton of states that will literally never go Blue no matter what though? The Dem nomination doesnt seem to me like it speaks to picking the ideal candidate for the general election, after all, who gives a flying fuck what people in Alabama think about the Democrat's candidate when their state will NEVER flip red to blue? Thinking his chances in the general are stronger since he won the nomination is the kind of argument that let Biden's centrism look so appealing and its obvious by the amount of doubt about him floating around that the argument doesn't seem to be some golden ticket against Trump. If Democrats are having to worry so much about the margins and seem to be unable to afford alienating their progressive constituents maybe having Biden swing to the right so damn much because it won him the nomination isn't ACTUALLY a good thing for a general election when Democrats want an energized voting base thats excited to get out and vote for them. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8193 Posts
On September 06 2020 13:19 JimmiC wrote: Pretty sure the Dems know that the left of Bernie vote is not coming their way and makes up a super tiny amount of the voting public. Communism is so unpopular in the USA it is the first attack the Reps use. If you want Trump out you are glad the Biden is sticking to the middle since that is what won him, by a lot, the Dem nomination. Communism is hugely unpopular everywhere. But to be honest, there is some margin even between Sanders and the marxist leninist rubbish that the most extreme leftists advocate. I think many regular left wing parties in Europe that are not communists for the least could be considered on the left of Sanders. I think he would be a regular social democrat in Northern Europe. The "Revolution" rhetoric is just a marketing trick to get hardcore leftists on board, even though there is not much hardcore leftism in his program. I think that backfired, unfortunately. | ||
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Yurie
12171 Posts
On September 06 2020 17:59 Biff The Understudy wrote: Communism is hugely unpopular everywhere. But to be honest, there is some margin even between Sanders and the marxist leninist rubbish that the most extreme leftists advocate. I think many regular left wing parties in Europe that are not communists for the least could be considered on the left of Sanders. I think he would be a regular social democrat in Northern Europe. The "Revolution" rhetoric is just a marketing trick to get hardcore leftists on board, even though there is not much hardcore leftism in his program. I think that backfired, unfortunately. I would say he is a bit more centre than the social democrats would be, not to talk about the real left wing parties. That is due to the realities of the US political system, he can't get elected if he tries for everything at once. On September 06 2020 17:40 Zambrah wrote: Doesn't the Dem nomination involve a shit ton of states that will literally never go Blue no matter what though? The Dem nomination doesnt seem to me like it speaks to picking the ideal candidate for the general election, after all, who gives a flying fuck what people in Alabama think about the Democrat's candidate when their state will NEVER flip red to blue? Thinking his chances in the general are stronger since he won the nomination is the kind of argument that let Biden's centrism look so appealing and its obvious by the amount of doubt about him floating around that the argument doesn't seem to be some golden ticket against Trump. If Democrats are having to worry so much about the margins and seem to be unable to afford alienating their progressive constituents maybe having Biden swing to the right so damn much because it won him the nomination isn't ACTUALLY a good thing for a general election when Democrats want an energized voting base thats excited to get out and vote for them. I think is one of the strongest arguments about how broken the US election system is. Disregard entire regions since the voters there doesn't matter. At least on a national level. On a regional level the internal party election matters more than the actual election, so you have some choices there at least. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On September 06 2020 14:49 StalkerTL wrote: For better or worse, the polls themselves suggest a pretty clear Biden lead that isn't really shifting unless you're taking into account pollsters that use a large amount of online methods such as using Amazon's Mechanical Turk. A lot of those same polls have extremely odd results, such as that Atlas Intel poll suggesting 48% of white Americans support Biden (that would be the largest white support for any Democratic candidate since LBJ) and 30% black support Trump (that would be a ~20 point improvement vs the 2018 midterm elections). The polling itself, ignoring online heavy pollsters who put out polls in the immediate aftermath of the RNC and DNC, has shown a very consistent Biden lead of 6-10 points. Its a referendum on Trump's presidency and his method of governance has in him in the media every single day of the 4 years. There's just not many undecideds this election because there's no way you can avoid hearing about Trump, whether through the media or through social media. There's a lot of garbage happening all around America to delegitimize the election, such as the Trump Administration doing their very best efforts to cripple the USPS so mail voting may come in later than sooner. So obviously Biden can lose pretty easily. But the polling wouldn't suggest this at all and obviously can't take into account things like voter suppression and the voting behaviour during the coronavirus. I don't believe third parties are going to spoil the election for either side. Name recognition of the Greens and Libertarian candidate is close to non-existent in polling and more importantly there's few undecideds compared to 2016 where both Trump and Clinton were polling in the low 40s (and even the 30s in some states!). If there was ever a sign that Clinton was in trouble, it was the sheer number of undecideds and her inability to poll higher than something like 45%. Compare that to the consistent low-mid 40s for Trump and Biden consistently hitting 50. Even the single Kanye presidential poll I've seen suggests he has little pull and if he does have any pull he probably pulls more Trump voters than Democratic voters (not surprising, his campaign has been extremely evangelical). Didn't 100% of the polls in 2016 show a clear Hilary lead though? I thought after 2016 we all admitted that polling doesn't work because of how the data is collected (either the sample size isn't good enough or the questions are too simplistic). | ||
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Gahlo
United States35174 Posts
On September 06 2020 13:19 JimmiC wrote: Pretty sure the Dems know that the left of Bernie vote is not coming their way and makes up a super tiny amount of the voting public. Communism is so unpopular in the USA it is the first attack the Reps use. If you want Trump out you are glad the Biden is sticking to the middle since that is what won him, by a lot, the Dem nomination. Doesn't matter when they paint everybody on the Democratic party with socialism regardless of their policies. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On September 06 2020 20:03 iamthedave wrote: Didn't 100% of the polls in 2016 show a clear Hilary lead though? I thought after 2016 we all admitted that polling doesn't work because of how the data is collected (either the sample size isn't good enough or the questions are too simplistic). They showed a clear but not decisive Hillary lead. 538 published an article shortly before the election, Trump is only an average polling error away from victory. The national polls were dead on, while the Midwest polls were off by 2-3 points, which is expected. There was also the fact that there were a large number of undecideds that could go either way. The polls were things like Hillary 46 Trump 39. Polls now are closer to Biden 51 Trump 43. There just aren't any undecideds currently. Trump still has an electoral college advantage, Biden needs to win popular vote by 3 to be an even contest and 6 to be treated as a sure thing. | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On September 06 2020 20:03 iamthedave wrote: Didn't 100% of the polls in 2016 show a clear Hilary lead though? I thought after 2016 we all admitted that polling doesn't work because of how the data is collected (either the sample size isn't good enough or the questions are too simplistic). Trump will lose the popular vote in 2020. He lost by millions in 2016 and still won the election. He could lose by an order of magnitude more and still technically win. You should pay attention to specific swing states and not a national average. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Zambrah
United States7393 Posts
On September 07 2020 00:06 JimmiC wrote: Maybe, my thought is that if Bernie couldn't energize enough of his base to beat Biden, I doubt he could do it for Trump. Biden is going to lose some of the progressives, Bernie would have lost most of the moderates. With two parties there is basically no one who can fit everyone or even close. Yeah it is like a swear word to them. But I think outside of their base most independents they are fighting over will not believe it on Biden but some would for Bernie when they played a bunch of clips using the terms. I think Bernie ran a pretty good campaign and in a 4 party system he could do quite well. Just there was not was not enough in his Camp in the USA. If it bounces left post Trump and millennial's and younger keep trending left I think there is a chance a social democrat could win the dems and what is now moderate dem could flip to the reps. It is too bad Bernie is so old I think each time he lost (especially in 16 when it was dirty) and then took it with such grace he gained standing in the party. He will have a powerful endorsement going forward. I cant disagree with this enough, American elections arent about moderates theyre about driving turnout, Trump especially, since people are going to have hard and fast opinions about whether or not theyll vote for him. This election wanted a candidate to really energize people to get out there and VOTE. Democrats win when people vote, when you have a candidate like Biden that is in so many ways a blue version of Trump you're not going to get people who WANT to vote for him, youre relying on people voting AGAINST Trump. Let me know how that worked out the last time it was the approach the DNC used. Anyways, "moderates" are a dumb thing in the US, we don't have people who love to swing between candidates so freely. Drive turnout. Give the people what they want so they feel compelled to go out there and make it happen. I hope to god that if Trump wins we stop hearing this, "Americans want moderates!" for the rest of eternity as a justification for why Progressives cant be trusted to win elections. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27405 Posts
It’s intriguing to see where things going being serious for a second. Generational churn has often capped the pull of the left as people’s dissatisfaction can tail off as they get economically enfranchised. Then it’s back to the youth again and the cycle repeats. That hypothetical age ceiling of the left’s appeal seems to be raising and raising, plus the standard cohort of the young swinging that way doesn’t seem to be going away any time soon. It is a rather crude framing, but if part of the generational switch is from people acquiring wealth and property and not wanting to lose it (as opposed to getting more conservative), when that’s not happening for a whole generation I don’t see it dissipating to the same degree we usually see. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On September 06 2020 05:48 IgnE wrote: Yes great. I know. What’s one measly city block anyway? Makes one wonder what all the hubbub is about. This is how us Portland residents feel as well. For a movement as important as this, a simple city block is peanuts. We are happy to give it up, which is why you see overwhelming support from those who aren't even protesting. It is important to keep in mind that there may be a reason your perspective is so different from Joe Shmoe people living here, not just the protesters. Similar to the 60s, when people would clench pearls and ask "but is it worth???", Portland residents are instead saying "yes". | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22611 Posts
On September 07 2020 00:59 Zambrah wrote: If Bernie would really get people out come out and vote compared to Biden, why does he keep losing primaries?I cant disagree with this enough, American elections arent about moderates theyre about driving turnout, Trump especially, since people are going to have hard and fast opinions about whether or not theyll vote for him. This election wanted a candidate to really energize people to get out there and VOTE. Democrats win when people vote, when you have a candidate like Biden that is in so many ways a blue version of Trump you're not going to get people who WANT to vote for him, youre relying on people voting AGAINST Trump. Let me know how that worked out the last time it was the approach the DNC used. Anyways, "moderates" are a dumb thing in the US, we don't have people who love to swing between candidates so freely. Drive turnout. Give the people what they want so they feel compelled to go out there and make it happen. I hope to god that if Trump wins we stop hearing this, "Americans want moderates!" for the rest of eternity as a justification for why Progressives cant be trusted to win elections. | ||
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reborn8u2
16 Posts
On September 06 2020 20:03 iamthedave wrote: Didn't 100% of the polls in 2016 show a clear Hilary lead though? I thought after 2016 we all admitted that polling doesn't work because of how the data is collected (either the sample size isn't good enough or the questions are too simplistic). Just want to share my Boss's experience with polling. A bit of background, he is in his early 50's and was a lifelong democrat until Trump. As he put's it, he was a "Blue dog" democrat. He's been following and interested in politics his whole life, he literally studies all the local/state politics as well, we've had a lot of state constitution changes on the ballot in the last few years (he can talk about those alone for hours). Even as a teenager he couldn't wait to turn 18 so he could vote. He's always been very outspoken about his views/values. He's taken hundreds of polls in his life, but no more. When he decided in 2016 he was voting for Trump, he took 2 polls just before the election (over the phone). After that experience he says "I'll never take another poll again". He says that as soon as he stated he intended to vote for Trump the person giving the poll on the phone became extremely condescending and flat out rude. The other thing that really pissed him off was how loaded the questions were. He says there was no way for him to voice his opinions because all of the questions and answers were worded in such a way that there were no responses he could make that showed his opinion. He says he's now a "shy tory" en.wikipedia.org , and if you told him 10 years ago he'd be where he is now he would have "called you an idiot". With so many calling Trump supporters racists and nazi's, who can blame him for no longer sharing his politics. He says he would never even put a Trump bumper sticker on his car or wear a maga hat, for fear of vandalism, or violence. I think there are a lot of people who are in the same mindset. There has been a lot of suppression, vandalism, and violence against Trump supporters in the last 4 years. If you have been following mainstream media, you probably don't realize how bad the problem is, they don't give it any attention. The media as well as most major online platforms have been very one sided in what and how they cover stories, and have been flat out censoring conservative voices for years now. I don't think we can have any confidence in the polls. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
Do we want to pretend polls are a distinctly anti-Trump mechanism all of a sudden? Let's ignore the one where your opinion of his performance can be either "Amazing", "Excellent", "Very Good", "Good" or "Other". That never happened. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9999 Posts
On September 07 2020 02:13 reborn8u2 wrote: Just want to share my Boss's experience with polling. A bit of background, he is in his early 50's and was a lifelong democrat until Trump. As he put's it, he was a "Blue dog" democrat. He's been following and interested in politics his whole life, he literally studies all the local/state politics as well, we've had a lot of state constitution changes on the ballot in the last few years (he can talk about those alone for hours). Even as a teenager he couldn't wait to turn 18 so he could vote. He's always been very outspoken about his views/values. He's taken hundreds of polls in his life, but no more. When he decided in 2016 he was voting for Trump, he took 2 polls just before the election (over the phone). After that experience he says "I'll never take another poll again". He says that as soon as he stated he intended to vote for Trump the person giving the poll on the phone became extremely condescending and flat out rude. The other thing that really pissed him off was how loaded the questions were. He says there was no way for him to voice his opinions because all of the questions and answers were worded in such a way that there were no responses he could make that showed his opinion. He says he's now a "shy tory" en.wikipedia.org , and if you told him 10 years ago he'd be where he is now he would have "called you an idiot". With so many calling Trump supporters racists and nazi's, who can blame him for no longer sharing his politics. He says he would never even put a Trump bumper sticker on his car or wear a maga hat, for fear of vandalism, or violence. I think there are a lot of people who are in the same mindset. There has been a lot of suppression, vandalism, and violence against Trump supporters in the last 4 years. If you have been following mainstream media, you probably don't realize how bad the problem is, they don't give it any attention. The media as well as most major online platforms have been very one sided in what and how they cover stories, and have been flat out censoring conservative voices for years now. I don't think we can have any confidence in the polls. You're right in that we can't have confidence in polls. The shy tory effect is really well known. There are a few different explanations, from moralism coming from the left, to many conservatives simply having 'grown out' of leftism and feeling a bit sheepish about admitting that their deeply held views are no longer so deeply held. | ||
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