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On July 08 2020 16:25 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2020 15:35 Danglars wrote:On July 08 2020 13:09 Wegandi wrote:On July 08 2020 12:51 StalkerTL wrote:On July 08 2020 12:07 Wegandi wrote:On July 07 2020 06:39 Nyxisto wrote:On July 07 2020 03:18 IgnE wrote: I understand why people think Europe is a better place to raise kids right now but looking 10-20 years down the road it is not at all clear to me that Europe will be a great place to live with job prospects. There are already (ie before covid) a lot of European countries with high unemployment, specifically youth unemployment. The demographics don’t look good. The debt burdens in a federated Euro system don’t look good. I am not saying the whole thing will definitely crumble but if you are thinking about emigrating in order to bet on the next generation’s prospects the situation is far more complicated than some of you are making it out to be. The US in comparison has the capacity for food independence, energy independence, market independence, and a younger demographic profile.
None of that speaks to aesthetic and lifestyle concerns that are only loosely related to material prosperity of course. That Europe 10-20 years in the future is pretty much Japan today and living there is relatively pleasant. The continent basically just needs some Abenomics to get everyone a job and the ageing isn't that big of a deal. I've talked to people in the US who blow tens of thousands of dollars on private schools just to get their kids a middle-class education. In the Netherlands, they'll give you an education for free, public transport and you're set basically. The situation is more complicated if you're a single guy with a STEM degree, then going to the US is a pretty good choice. As a family, hell no the US working hours and safety net looks bad. Look, if you think workplace culture is bad in the US, multiply that by 20 for Japan. In addition, they're still in an economic malaise from the 90s, have pretty suffocating and unhealthy sub-cultures (you thought incels were awful?), high suicide rates, a declining demographic placing extreme burdens on the young, etc. There's of course lots of good to be found in Japan, but as a model...I don't think Europeans will be happy if the EU in 2 decades becomes what Japan is today. I’m not sure why you’re bringing up half of these things because 99% of problems in Japanese society are untransferable to anywhere else in the world. There’s no culture of 頑張ります in Europe (or anywhere else really) and will never be. The only real comparison is a large government, stagnant economy and ageing demographics which is why people use Japan as a model since that’s a problem most Western countries are going to face. Unlike Japan, most European nations have some degree of noteworthy amounts of immigration so the issue of labour shortages is less of an issue than it currently is in Japan. As far as the economy goes, life in Japan is still pretty comfortable especially if you’re not working in Tokyo or Osaka where it’s basically hell on earth. If Europe becomes like Japan minus the 頑張ります and refusal to accept any immigration, I don’t think most Europeans would really mind. I bring it up because the poster talked about Japan being relatively pleasant and the implication of how good it'll be for EU to be like Japan in 10-20 years. There are a lot of problems in Japan. Handwaving them away and only looking at the positives seems pretty biased. Something tells me that young folks living in the EU don't want Japanese suicide rates, don't want cultural burdens and expectations placed by an aging and majority demographic, etc. If you thought Baby Boomers in the US dictating policy and what politicians get elected sucks you're not going to like the future if you want Japan. It's so weird for me to see people celebrate low native birth rates while advocating for immigration to solve their labor issues, then in the same breath decrying labor exploitation like what you're advocating for isn't labor exploitation from third world countries? Iono man, if the future of the EU is Japan today that's not good. Maybe you saw IgnE's post: On July 07 2020 03:18 IgnE wrote: I understand why people think Europe is a better place to raise kids right now but looking 10-20 years down the road it is not at all clear to me that Europe will be a great place to live with job prospects. There are already (ie before covid) a lot of European countries with high unemployment, specifically youth unemployment. The demographics don’t look good. The debt burdens in a federated Euro system don’t look good. I am not saying the whole thing will definitely crumble but if you are thinking about emigrating in order to bet on the next generation’s prospects the situation is far more complicated than some of you are making it out to be. The US in comparison has the capacity for food independence, energy independence, market independence, and a younger demographic profile.
None of that speaks to aesthetic and lifestyle concerns that are only loosely related to material prosperity of course. I put even odds on whether or not in a decade or two, EU citizens want the EU to be more like the US. Monetary union and closer country integration have severe long-term risks. The right and far-right parties have had unheard-of results, if you zoom back to year 2000. This isn't so much to the credit of these parties, so poorly led and organized, but as a measure of the protest vote of unheard EU citizens. We'll see, I also don't have good prospects for EU a decade or two out. The PIIGS stuff is still unresolved and their demographics look awful. Immigration is still a hot button issue. Just wait. Anyways, maybe the "left" posters here who are thinking about moving would ya know instead embrace federalism/secession? Remember the 60s lefties when small was beautiful. Local was in vogue. Of course, they'll switch to this view while the "right" continues its nationalist trajectory. Bleh. Come on folks this should be common ground for us Americans. Either lets part ways or you gotta live with folks in different parts of the country live according to their values, not yours. Just so frustrating. Maybe NH libertarians will be the first to lead there (eventually) :p.
more federalism in the EU is always a possibility and it's not a new idea. The "Europe of regions" was popular and has remained popular among a relatively small audience but it's not a particular left/right issue.
It's not really compatible with the American version of libertarianism though because in reality decentralisation if successful always is underpinned by a strong authority. So if there's something like that I'd imagine it be more of a bifurcation. A much stronger EU and more regional autonomy, with waning power of the nation-states. Only decentralising just balkanizes Europe.
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I have a really hard time imagining on what front Europe, at this point, would actually want to take the US as it's inspiration.
What does the US have, that Europe doesn't and would want? The US is worse off in basically any positive metric when compared to the rich EU countries... So i would imagine a model for europe as a whole would try to take ideas from its most succsesfull members and not from the US. US politics are downright horrifying and thats even when you don't think of trump, the Videogame style "red vs blue" is bad enough on its own. Your judical Systems biggest achievment is to jail record amounts of people. Your HealthCare system is world famous for being absolute trash tier for anyone but rich people...
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The huge problem for Europe is basically its vast differences in political forces for every nation and how they adhere to their demographies.
Belgium already feels like a mess and that's because I feel impotent because I can't vote for the political parties residing in the french part of the country, even when voting for federal elections.
There seems to be a very difficult problem in resolving unification versus individualism.
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Ummm....
User was warned for this post
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On July 08 2020 19:27 Velr wrote: I have a really hard time imagining on what front Europe, at this point, would actually want to take the US as it's inspiration.
What does the US have, that Europe doesn't and would want? The US is worse off in basically any positive metric when compared to the rich EU countries... So i would imagine a model for europe as a whole would try to take ideas from its most succsesfull members and not from the US. US politics are downright horrifying and thats even when you don't think of trump, the Videogame style "red vs blue" is bad enough on its own. Your judical Systems biggest achievment is to jail record amounts of people. Your HealthCare system is world famous for being absolute trash tier for anyone but rich people...
What about Hungary's politics? Poland's politics?
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On July 08 2020 23:55 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2020 19:27 Velr wrote: I have a really hard time imagining on what front Europe, at this point, would actually want to take the US as it's inspiration.
What does the US have, that Europe doesn't and would want? The US is worse off in basically any positive metric when compared to the rich EU countries... So i would imagine a model for europe as a whole would try to take ideas from its most succsesfull members and not from the US. US politics are downright horrifying and thats even when you don't think of trump, the Videogame style "red vs blue" is bad enough on its own. Your judical Systems biggest achievment is to jail record amounts of people. Your HealthCare system is world famous for being absolute trash tier for anyone but rich people... What about Hungary's politics? Poland's politics?
What does this have to do with his questions?
Velr didn't say at any point that there are no problems in Europe. But I don't see how anyone would solve the issue of Hungary's or Poland's politics by taking the US as inspiration...
Well, except you are trying to say that in Poland and Hungary some political parties would wish they could rule like Trump.
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The EU has plenty of Problems. But very diffrent ones from the US. Europe also has to deal with an actual refugee crysis (that you easily can make the US responsible for), not just imaginary "immigration caravans".
Poland and Hungaries politics may be abhorrent to diffrent Degrees... But they seem more sane than what the US does. I imagine if I would be a fan of such policies, i could see me voting for them. I could never ever see me to vote for Trump (or Kanye, or the Rock for that matter).
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On July 09 2020 00:41 Velr wrote: Are bad, but still seem more "sane" than US politics. Where do you see the stuff that would make these worse than the US? Aside from obviously also being horrible. At least they aren't presented like a Wrestling match.
It also funny to compare the US to two countries that exist since barely 30 years in their modern form and therefore have basically no democratic tradition.
My point is just that the US and the EU are both heterogeneous. An American emigrating to Greece to "escape" the US would find a very different life than one emigrating to Denmark. Just like a European emigrating to Mississippi would find a very different life from that in California or Oregon.
But to answer your question, abortion is mostly illegal in Poland is it not? In Hungary I've heard that people are getting arrested for writing facebook posts criticizing Orban. So far as I know Trump is not doing that.
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On July 08 2020 19:27 Velr wrote: I have a really hard time imagining on what front Europe, at this point, would actually want to take the US as it's inspiration.
What does the US have, that Europe doesn't and would want? The US is worse off in basically any positive metric when compared to the rich EU countries... So i would imagine a model for europe as a whole would try to take ideas from its most succsesfull members and not from the US. US politics are downright horrifying and thats even when you don't think of trump, the Videogame style "red vs blue" is bad enough on its own. Your judical Systems biggest achievment is to jail record amounts of people. Your HealthCare system is world famous for being absolute trash tier for anyone but rich people... All this is true and I agree with you.
I think the problems with Europe are very different than anything you listed here. Demographics and birth rate are a huge problem, and don't seem to be reversing anytime soon. The resulting need for immigration vs people's 'want' of immigration leading to tension, social strife, and increased nationalistic & right-wing political power is another problem. The economies of Europe are in big trouble. The systems they have set up are far superior to the US but the economies powering those systems, are heavily indebted and unlike the USD, the Euro is not a reserve currency of the world. They are also showing little growth prospects so they will be hurting, exacerbating the social effects of shifting politics. They cannot be as self-reliant on food and energy as others and trade headwinds affect them more than almost all parts of the world (except Japan maybe? lol)
Europe's politics in many countries may actually start becoming more like the US over time (due to the factors above, not as an 'inspiration' or goal) even though that is not what you want, obviously. I know being European you may think that cultural superiority and complexity would make it impossible for politics to become like the US, but dont underestimate the economic and sociopolitical factors in play.
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On July 08 2020 23:55 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2020 19:27 Velr wrote: I have a really hard time imagining on what front Europe, at this point, would actually want to take the US as it's inspiration.
What does the US have, that Europe doesn't and would want? The US is worse off in basically any positive metric when compared to the rich EU countries... So i would imagine a model for europe as a whole would try to take ideas from its most succsesfull members and not from the US. US politics are downright horrifying and thats even when you don't think of trump, the Videogame style "red vs blue" is bad enough on its own. Your judical Systems biggest achievment is to jail record amounts of people. Your HealthCare system is world famous for being absolute trash tier for anyone but rich people... What about Hungary's politics? Poland's politics? He did say both "rich EU countries" and "most successful members", and while I don't want to put words in his mouth, he probably does not mean Hungary and Poland.
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On July 09 2020 01:00 nath wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2020 23:55 IgnE wrote:On July 08 2020 19:27 Velr wrote: I have a really hard time imagining on what front Europe, at this point, would actually want to take the US as it's inspiration.
What does the US have, that Europe doesn't and would want? The US is worse off in basically any positive metric when compared to the rich EU countries... So i would imagine a model for europe as a whole would try to take ideas from its most succsesfull members and not from the US. US politics are downright horrifying and thats even when you don't think of trump, the Videogame style "red vs blue" is bad enough on its own. Your judical Systems biggest achievment is to jail record amounts of people. Your HealthCare system is world famous for being absolute trash tier for anyone but rich people... What about Hungary's politics? Poland's politics? He did say both "rich EU countries" and "most successful members", and while I don't want to put words in his mouth, he probably does not mean Hungary and Poland.
Fair enough. But if you are rich and successful and move to a rich and successful city in the US life is pretty good. Part of my hesitation in predicting the future success of rich and successful countries has to do with trying to understand how those countries are linked juridically, monetarily, and otherwise to the poorer areas in the respective unions. If the EU disintegrates how long do countries like Slovenia and Belgium hold onto their success?
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If anything our politics resemble US too much. PiS has moved Poland towards conservatism on social issues and towards socialism on economic issues. And also eroded our democracy with genreous reading from Trump/Republican playbook.
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The Becket legal fund, with its mission to defend religious liberty, is now 2-0 at the Supreme Court for the day. First, hopefully the end of nearly a decade of litigation as Little Sisters of the Poor win their right to serve the elderly poor while living according to their religious conscience. They are exempted from the Obamacare contraception mandate. Trump's HHS(&HRSA), like Obama's HHS, has the discretion to carve exemptions and define standards, since that's in the law. Thomas wrote the opinion for the 7-2 victory.
The second case involves whether employees of religious schools can sue their employer under employment discrimination law, or whether those lawsuits are barred by First Amendment protections. The court held that it is a matter of religious institution independence that courts should "stay out of employment disputes" and that the employees concerned were charged with "vital religious duties, such as educating their students in the Catholic faith and guiding their students to live their lives in accordance with that faith." I'll just link the opinion for this case.
These are two good victories after quite a few disappointments in prior days. I wish cases like a group of nuns or a Catholic religious school had their first amendment rights verified quickly, instead of being forced to fight for them through multiple levels of the court system. It's a good reminder that these rights aren't extended to all by default, no matter how many people here and elsewhere want to tell people that they support civil rights, but that they must be watched and defended.
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I never said I was planning to move to Europe/Canada, just that if I didn't have family ties I'd strongly consider it. There are moral, economic, and philosophical reasons. I doubt I'd move to any EU country aside from (maybe) Germany, purely because learning new languages is hard.
Moral - US is the only country in the world where slavery is still openly legal (yes, China has some factories where it's been discovered, but it's not in their constitution that it's OK to do so). Remaining in the US donates my taxes to preserving this system.
Economic- It's a gamble. Yes, you can make significantly more in the US, but only with some massive gambles viz a viz the health insurance industry. It's safer to live in a country with universal health care, economically. A single serious illness could wipe out 15x my savings. Any children I have are likely to have certain illnesses under this system, and it could condemn then to a life of debt.
Philosophically - I'm far left (by American standards). I had no representation in congress until 2018. It's incredibly strongly entrenched in capitalism, a system I think inevitably leads to abuses.
I think billionaires are a product of a system that rewards a mental illness. That isn't to say that other countries don't produce them, but the vast majority are from here, and they lead to a very skewed representation politically.
Culturally- I find US culture generally pretty abhorrent. While every country has shitty people, the US glorifies many of them. I'm not just talking about Trump, but also various celebrities. (I think even conservatives would agree with this point, at least). I'm also visibly Cherokee/not quite white, so racism is a consideration (while still an issue in Europe/Canada, it's not got the same systemic structures in place that has half of their political system currently openly pandering directly to racists).
It'd also be easy for me to relocate as I have a master's, work in a fairly in-demand/essential and low-interest/boring job. I write programs for an American branch of a German reinsurance company currently. I'm already bilingual, but I'd rather not learn a third language, so CA or UK would be my first choices, with Germany as the most likely, and my second language is in the one country with a worse work/life balance and more hostile to immigrants than the US (Japanese).
Now, even if I didn't have family ties I probably wouldn't, for the following reasons - I do feel some debt to the US for making me who I am today. It would be an act of cowardice to flee rather than try to make positive changes. I'm very stubborn. There are signs that the US may change for the better as the current generation of politicians loses power.
But I think there are very strong arguments to abandon the US, especially if remaining there would provide benefit to it.
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On July 09 2020 01:20 Danglars wrote:The Becket legal fund, with its mission to defend religious liberty, is now 2-0 at the Supreme Court for the day. First, hopefully the end of nearly a decade of litigation as Little Sisters of the Poor win their right to serve the elderly poor while living according to their religious conscience. They are exempted from the Obamacare contraception mandate. Trump's HHS(&HRSA), like Obama's HHS, has the discretion to carve exemptions and define standards, since that's in the law. Thomas wrote the opinion for the 7-2 victory. https://twitter.com/BECKETlaw/status/1280867792682733569The second case involves whether employees of religious schools can sue their employer under employment discrimination law, or whether those lawsuits are barred by First Amendment protections. The court held that it is a matter of religious institution independence that courts should "stay out of employment disputes" and that the employees concerned were charged with "vital religious duties, such as educating their students in the Catholic faith and guiding their students to live their lives in accordance with that faith." I'll just link the opinion for this case. These are two good victories after quite a few disappointments in prior days. I wish cases like a group of nuns or a Catholic religious school had their first amendment rights verified quickly, instead of being forced to fight for them through multiple levels of the court system. It's a good reminder that these rights aren't extended to all by default, no matter how many people here and elsewhere want to tell people that they support civil rights, but that they must be watched and defended.
It is amazing how you can call "not providing effective healthcare to your employees" "religious freedom" instead.
Being religious should not be a shortcut to avoid workplace regulations. Can i just start a religion which doesn't believe in paying taxes and then claim religious freedom to not pay taxes? It is absurd that religious laws apparently go above democratically legitimate laws.
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On July 09 2020 01:25 Nevuk wrote: I never said I was planning to move to Europe/Canada, just that if I didn't have family ties I'd strongly consider it. There are moral, economic, and philosophical reasons. I doubt I'd move to any EU country aside from (maybe) Germany, purely because learning new languages is hard.
Moral - US is the only country in the world where slavery is still openly legal (yes, China has some factories where it's been discovered, but it's not in their constitution that it's OK to do so). Remaining in the US donates my taxes to preserving this system.
Economic- It's a gamble. Yes, you can make significantly more in the US, but only with some massive gambles viz a viz the health insurance industry. It's safer to live in a country with universal health care, economically. A single serious illness could wipe out 15x my savings. Any children I have are likely to have certain illnesses under this system, and it could condemn then to a life of debt.
Philosophically - I'm far left (by American standards). I had no representation in congress until 2018. It's incredibly strongly entrenched in capitalism, a system I think inevitably leads to abuses.
I think billionaires are a product of a system that rewards a mental illness. That isn't to say that other countries don't produce them, but the vast majority are from here, and they lead to a very skewed representation politically.
Culturally- I find US culture generally pretty abhorrent. While every country has shitty people, the US glorifies many of them. I'm not just talking about Trump, but also various celebrities. (I think even conservatives would agree with this point, at least). I'm also visibly Cherokee/not quite white, so racism is a consideration (while still an issue in Europe/Canada, it's not got the same systemic structures in place that has half of their political system currently openly pandering directly to racists).
It'd also be easy for me to relocate as I have a master's, work in a fairly in-demand/essential and low-interest/boring job. I write programs for an American branch of a German reinsurance company currently. I'm already bilingual, but I'd rather not learn a third language, so CA or UK would be my first choices, with Germany as the most likely, and my second language is in the one country with a worse work/life balance and more hostile to immigrants than the US (Japanese).
Now, even if I didn't have family ties I probably wouldn't, for the following reasons - I do feel some debt to the US for making me who I am today. It would be an act of cowardice to flee rather than try to make positive changes. I'm very stubborn. There are signs that the US may change for the better as the current generation of politicians loses power.
But I think there are very strong arguments to abandon the US, especially if remaining there would provide benefit to it.
Slavery is still openly legal in the US? and nowhere else?
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On July 09 2020 01:25 Nevuk wrote: I never said I was planning to move to Europe/Canada, just that if I didn't have family ties I'd strongly consider it. There are moral, economic, and philosophical reasons. I doubt I'd move to any EU country aside from (maybe) Germany, purely because learning new languages is hard.
Moral - US is the only country in the world where slavery is still openly legal (yes, China has some factories where it's been discovered, but it's not in their constitution that it's OK to do so). Remaining in the US donates my taxes to preserving this system.
Economic- It's a gamble. Yes, you can make significantly more in the US, but only with some massive gambles viz a viz the health insurance industry. It's safer to live in a country with universal health care, economically. A single serious illness could wipe out 15x my savings. Any children I have are likely to have certain illnesses under this system, and it could condemn then to a life of debt.
Philosophically - I'm far left (by American standards). I had no representation in congress until 2018. It's incredibly strongly entrenched in capitalism, a system I think inevitably leads to abuses.
I think billionaires are a product of a system that rewards a mental illness. That isn't to say that other countries don't produce them, but the vast majority are from here, and they lead to a very skewed representation politically.
Culturally- I find US culture generally pretty abhorrent. While every country has shitty people, the US glorifies many of them. I'm not just talking about Trump, but also various celebrities. (I think even conservatives would agree with this point, at least). I'm also visibly Cherokee/not quite white, so racism is a consideration (while still an issue in Europe/Canada, it's not got the same systemic structures in place that has half of their political system currently openly pandering directly to racists).
It'd also be easy for me to relocate as I have a master's, work in a fairly in-demand/essential and low-interest/boring job. I write programs for an American branch of a German reinsurance company currently. I'm already bilingual, but I'd rather not learn a third language, so CA or UK would be my first choices, with Germany as the most likely, and my second language is in the one country with a worse work/life balance and more hostile to immigrants than the US (Japanese).
Now, even if I didn't have family ties I probably wouldn't, for the following reasons - I do feel some debt to the US for making me who I am today. It would be an act of cowardice to flee rather than try to make positive changes. I'm very stubborn. There are signs that the US may change for the better as the current generation of politicians loses power.
But I think there are very strong arguments to abandon the US, especially if remaining there would provide benefit to it.
Could you explain this more? This seems way off base like one of those you dont have to legally pay taxes lines.
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On July 09 2020 01:39 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2020 01:25 Nevuk wrote: I never said I was planning to move to Europe/Canada, just that if I didn't have family ties I'd strongly consider it. There are moral, economic, and philosophical reasons. I doubt I'd move to any EU country aside from (maybe) Germany, purely because learning new languages is hard.
Moral - US is the only country in the world where slavery is still openly legal (yes, China has some factories where it's been discovered, but it's not in their constitution that it's OK to do so). Remaining in the US donates my taxes to preserving this system.
Economic- It's a gamble. Yes, you can make significantly more in the US, but only with some massive gambles viz a viz the health insurance industry. It's safer to live in a country with universal health care, economically. A single serious illness could wipe out 15x my savings. Any children I have are likely to have certain illnesses under this system, and it could condemn then to a life of debt.
Philosophically - I'm far left (by American standards). I had no representation in congress until 2018. It's incredibly strongly entrenched in capitalism, a system I think inevitably leads to abuses.
I think billionaires are a product of a system that rewards a mental illness. That isn't to say that other countries don't produce them, but the vast majority are from here, and they lead to a very skewed representation politically.
Culturally- I find US culture generally pretty abhorrent. While every country has shitty people, the US glorifies many of them. I'm not just talking about Trump, but also various celebrities. (I think even conservatives would agree with this point, at least). I'm also visibly Cherokee/not quite white, so racism is a consideration (while still an issue in Europe/Canada, it's not got the same systemic structures in place that has half of their political system currently openly pandering directly to racists).
It'd also be easy for me to relocate as I have a master's, work in a fairly in-demand/essential and low-interest/boring job. I write programs for an American branch of a German reinsurance company currently. I'm already bilingual, but I'd rather not learn a third language, so CA or UK would be my first choices, with Germany as the most likely, and my second language is in the one country with a worse work/life balance and more hostile to immigrants than the US (Japanese).
Now, even if I didn't have family ties I probably wouldn't, for the following reasons - I do feel some debt to the US for making me who I am today. It would be an act of cowardice to flee rather than try to make positive changes. I'm very stubborn. There are signs that the US may change for the better as the current generation of politicians loses power.
But I think there are very strong arguments to abandon the US, especially if remaining there would provide benefit to it. Slavery is still openly legal in the US? and nowhere else? OK, don't know about NOWHERE else. Was an exaggeration, probably. No 1st world country I know of, though.
The 13th amendment specifically legalizes it as a punishment for crime. That's why prisoners can be forced to work for 30 cents an hour, well below minimum wage.
edit - At least 5 states pay nothing for work by prisoners.
With a few rare exceptions, regular prison jobs are still unpaid in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, and Texas. https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2017/04/10/wages/
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The population that mainly sees nation states with separate land and culture is slowly dying out though. Among younger Europeans, Europe is just a big playing field with different languages already. Certainly, there is still the question of how the division in wealth is being treated, but culturally, most of the nations will become highly interchangeable very soon. I don't know what the odds are, but the movement for more unity is growing as well.
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