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Northern Ireland27352 Posts
On June 21 2020 09:57 StalkerTL wrote:
Peak of manliness right there, being able to drink a glass of water with one hand.
It is so incredibly odd that Trump’s machismo appeals to people but that’s pretty standard fair when it comes to his type of leader.
Also nice of him to admit that he’s purposely suppressing coronavirus testing. We already knew that but it’s good to get confirmation.
It really baffles me. I do get that plenty of people like the strongman type, I’m more confused that Trump is perceived in such a light.
If he didn’t have that layer of crazy insecurity and skin as thin as a shrimp I mean OK, but Jesus
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On June 21 2020 11:37 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 09:57 StalkerTL wrote:
Peak of manliness right there, being able to drink a glass of water with one hand.
It is so incredibly odd that Trump’s machismo appeals to people but that’s pretty standard fair when it comes to his type of leader.
Also nice of him to admit that he’s purposely suppressing coronavirus testing. We already knew that but it’s good to get confirmation. It really baffles me. I do get that plenty of people like the strongman type, I’m more confused that Trump is perceived in such a light. If he didn’t have that layer of crazy insecurity and skin as thin as a shrimp I mean OK, but Jesus
What I’ve heard people say, which I think is true, is that trump is what weak men assume a strong man looks like.
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On June 21 2020 11:42 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 11:37 Wombat_NI wrote:On June 21 2020 09:57 StalkerTL wrote:
Peak of manliness right there, being able to drink a glass of water with one hand.
It is so incredibly odd that Trump’s machismo appeals to people but that’s pretty standard fair when it comes to his type of leader.
Also nice of him to admit that he’s purposely suppressing coronavirus testing. We already knew that but it’s good to get confirmation. It really baffles me. I do get that plenty of people like the strongman type, I’m more confused that Trump is perceived in such a light. If he didn’t have that layer of crazy insecurity and skin as thin as a shrimp I mean OK, but Jesus What I’ve heard people say, which I think is true, is that trump is what weak men assume a strong man looks like.
Weak person's idea of a strong man, poor person's idea of a rich man, stupid person's idea of a smart man.
Trump supporters come in a couple flavors:
1) The type who know he's a fucking clown but who are content to use him as a stooge to rubber stamp the stuff they want.
2) The shitheads who genuinely believe he's smart (usually racist types fall into this category)
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On June 21 2020 09:40 Nevuk wrote:
Berman has agreed to leave office immediately. Strange turn of events. I'm wondering if he is going to testify this week.
Saw a tweet from Preet saying that his deputy who's taking over is an excellent and principles prosecutor, which I think was a big factor in him agreeing to step down. That much at least gives me some relief.
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On June 21 2020 12:49 YumYumGranola wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 09:40 Nevuk wrote:
Berman has agreed to leave office immediately. Strange turn of events. I'm wondering if he is going to testify this week. Saw a tweet from Preet saying that his deputy who's taking over is an excellent and principles prosecutor, which I think was a big factor in him agreeing to step down. That much at least gives me some relief.
What I don’t understand then is what the incentive is to remove berman. If someone principled and honest replaces berman rather than a trump stooge, why remove berman?
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On June 21 2020 13:34 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 13:31 Mohdoo wrote:On June 21 2020 12:49 YumYumGranola wrote:On June 21 2020 09:40 Nevuk wrote:
Berman has agreed to leave office immediately. Strange turn of events. I'm wondering if he is going to testify this week. Saw a tweet from Preet saying that his deputy who's taking over is an excellent and principles prosecutor, which I think was a big factor in him agreeing to step down. That much at least gives me some relief. What I don’t understand then is what the incentive is to remove berman. If someone principled and honest replaces berman rather than a trump stooge, why remove berman? I think it is a save face move. They wanted to put in their man but when when Berman pushed back they had to settle for Berman's choice. That way that can still tell their base they got rid of more of the deep state. Trump and his campaign never let the truth get in the way of a good story.
The deep state representative Berman, who entered office during Trumps presidency... :D
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That was more than a month ago, so no one remembers it.
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On June 21 2020 13:31 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 12:49 YumYumGranola wrote:On June 21 2020 09:40 Nevuk wrote:
Berman has agreed to leave office immediately. Strange turn of events. I'm wondering if he is going to testify this week. Saw a tweet from Preet saying that his deputy who's taking over is an excellent and principles prosecutor, which I think was a big factor in him agreeing to step down. That much at least gives me some relief. What I don’t understand then is what the incentive is to remove berman. If someone principled and honest replaces berman rather than a trump stooge, why remove berman? You hope you can pressure the next guy, better then you could the current guy. And if that fails you get rid of the next guy and try pressuring the one after that, ect.
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On June 21 2020 06:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Something in the back of my mind is telling me the turnout of this election will be higher than 2008 by a mile.
Explain to me how Biden is going to achieve a higher turnout 'by a mile' than Obama 2008.
You think Biden will get out the young and black vote more than Obama 2008? Where's the enthusiasm for Biden?
Even Trumps rally wasn't capacity by any means, although this may be due to the virus.Trump turnout higher in 2020 than 2016? Probably not in my opinion.
Personally right now i'm interested in seeing what happens with the CHAZ/CHOP situation in Seattle.Clearly the democrats are hoping Trump will storm in with the armed forces and clear it up.Cue media coverage of Trumps fascist police state etc.Hasn't happened so far, in fact there was a death there yesterday, a shooting.Every day the mayor of Seattle looks worse with this circus ongoing, lets just hope there's no more deaths/violence in there.
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On June 21 2020 17:26 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 06:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Something in the back of my mind is telling me the turnout of this election will be higher than 2008 by a mile. Explain to me how Biden is going to achieve a higher turnout 'by a mile' than Obama 2008. You think Biden will get out the young and black vote more than Obama 2008? Where's the enthusiasm for Biden? Even Trumps rally wasn't capacity by any means, although this may be due to the virus. The idea is that people come out to get rid of Trump more then because of Biden.
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On June 21 2020 17:31 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 17:26 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On June 21 2020 06:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Something in the back of my mind is telling me the turnout of this election will be higher than 2008 by a mile. Explain to me how Biden is going to achieve a higher turnout 'by a mile' than Obama 2008. You think Biden will get out the young and black vote more than Obama 2008? Where's the enthusiasm for Biden? Even Trumps rally wasn't capacity by any means, although this may be due to the virus. The idea is that people come out to get rid of Trump more then because of Biden.
Did they do that in the midterms? When Republicans picked up senate seats?
Obama 2008 had charisma, Biden 2020 doesn't.He won't get close to the turnout.
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On June 21 2020 17:34 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 17:31 Gorsameth wrote:On June 21 2020 17:26 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On June 21 2020 06:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Something in the back of my mind is telling me the turnout of this election will be higher than 2008 by a mile. Explain to me how Biden is going to achieve a higher turnout 'by a mile' than Obama 2008. You think Biden will get out the young and black vote more than Obama 2008? Where's the enthusiasm for Biden? Even Trumps rally wasn't capacity by any means, although this may be due to the virus. The idea is that people come out to get rid of Trump more then because of Biden. Did they do that in the midterms? When Republicans picked up senate seats? Obama 2008 had charisma, Biden 2020 doesn't.He won't get close to the turnout. ![[image loading]](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout-figure-1.jpg) https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html
Highest turnout in atleast 40 years says yes?
I hope I don't have to explain to you how voter turnout and seat allocation are only loosely connected because of the US system.
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Worth noting that 2018 increased turnout was primarily driven by a dramatic rise in voter participation among voters under 29, not a group inspired by either candidate.
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RCP averages - Pre-Election
Obama 2008 Favourable/Unfavourable 69/23
Biden 2020 Favourable/Unfavourable 44.5/46.1
I'd be shocked if he had more votes than Obama.
If he's even the final nominee.
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On June 21 2020 17:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
Worth noting that 2018 increased turnout was primarily driven by a dramatic rise in voter participation among voters under 29, not a group inspired by either candidate. And why would <29 not be inspired to vote by seeing the shitshow of the Trump administration?
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I don't think Biden needs to win the election. He can just let Trump lose it.
McCain was no Trump. If Obama's adversary had been a twitter troll more interested in schoolboy taunts and bullying than in confronting ideas, he couldn't have had the positive and inspiring campaign he had. If his voters had been living in a paranoid post factual bubble besieged by non existant antifa villains and the deep state, I don't think there would have been space to inspire anyone.
At the moment, Biden's sole strategy to not give Trump a target and let him the spotlight to self destruct in peace is a very good one.
It's certain that Biden doesn't have Obama charisma, but again, the context is very different from when Obama was elected.
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On June 21 2020 18:02 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 17:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
Worth noting that 2018 increased turnout was primarily driven by a dramatic rise in voter participation among voters under 29, not a group inspired by either candidate. And why would <29 not be inspired to vote by seeing the shitshow of the Trump administration?
Lots of reasons they aren't inspired by Biden. A handful that come to mind.
1. The candidate they overwhelmingly preferred isn't on the ballot.
2. Democrats ignored their votes being suppressed on campuses and in places like Chicago.
3. Hiding and hoping the other guy makes you look acceptable by comparison is cynical, pathetic, and uninspiring.
4. He's literally said "nothing will fundamentally change" and campaigned on "restoring" a US they've never liked.
That overlaps with the standard reasons people don't vote in general.
This is hardly the place I would think people need to be convinced relying on voters under 29 is less than ideal though.
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On June 21 2020 18:16 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 18:02 Gorsameth wrote:On June 21 2020 17:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
Worth noting that 2018 increased turnout was primarily driven by a dramatic rise in voter participation among voters under 29, not a group inspired by either candidate. And why would <29 not be inspired to vote by seeing the shitshow of the Trump administration? Lots of reasons they aren't inspired by Biden. A handful that come to mind. 1. The candidate they overwhelmingly preferred isn't on the ballot. 2. Democrats ignored their votes being suppressed on campuses and in places like Chicago. 3. Hiding and hoping the other guy makes you look acceptable by comparison is cynical, pathetic, and uninspiring. 4. He's literally said "nothing will fundamentally change" and campaigned on "restoring" a US they've never liked. That overlaps with the standard reasons people don't vote in general. This is hardly the place I would think people need to be convinced relying on voters under 29 is less than ideal though. I agree you shouldn't rely on them but I also don't think the improved turnout in 2018 was because of Bernie.
Don't underestimate people willingness to go out and vote when they see the current situation as a bad thing.
(And before you bring up the many social/economic bad things going on constantly, most people simply don't give a shit, sad as that may be).
Either way its all speculation, we will see what the numbers say in November.
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On June 21 2020 18:02 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2020 17:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
Worth noting that 2018 increased turnout was primarily driven by a dramatic rise in voter participation among voters under 29, not a group inspired by either candidate. And why would <29 not be inspired to vote by seeing the shitshow of the Trump administration?
Actually the two times I was most inspired to vote in France were for Chirac in 2002 and Macron last time. Both times because the opponent was a Le Pen (father and daughter). There were the two most important elections of my lifetime, even though I really didn't like Chirac (I am left and he was right) and am very unenthusiastic about Macron. It's also the elections I have seen people being most passionate about. In comparison, Royal vs Sarkozy and Hollande vs Sarkozy caught a bit less people's interests, because the stakes were not nearly as high.
If comparing Biden to someone makes any sense, it would be to Clinton. Same opponent, relatively same context.
According to 538, he is doing all right with young voters (comparable to her) and substantially better with older voters. Also Trump is doing worse with both than he was last time.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-doesnt-really-have-a-young-voters-problem/
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