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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2297

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

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If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-30 00:14:48
April 30 2020 00:14 GMT
#45921
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23793 Posts
April 30 2020 00:27 GMT
#45922
On April 30 2020 08:39 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 08:06 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 30 2020 07:55 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Decent and beloved people on the left like Bernie, Chomsky, AOC and Obama have thrown their support and votes behind Biden, reluctantly or not. There's people who are picking Biden because he proposes to preserve their healthcare, do something rather than nothing about climate change and not have the courts from top to bottom conservative-leaning for a generation.

I get that it really, really sucks that your choices are an elderly boomer who looks like he's teetering on dementia in edited bite-sized social media clips with a credible sexual assault/rape allegation who gets very handsy with women and girls, or Trump, but these decent people have no choice but to vote for something beyond the person they want in the Oval Office.


I understand, it's just the political equivalent of wishcycling imo.

On April 30 2020 08:04 farvacola wrote:
On April 30 2020 07:55 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Decent and beloved people on the left like Bernie, Chomsky, AOC and Obama have thrown their support and votes behind Biden, reluctantly or not. There's people who are picking Biden because he proposes to preserve their healthcare, do something rather than nothing about climate change and not have the courts from top to bottom conservative-leaning for a generation.

I get that it really, really sucks that your choices are an elderly boomer who looks like he's teetering on dementia in edited bite-sized social media clips with a credible sexual assault/rape allegation who gets very handsy with women and girls, or Trump, but these decent people have no choice but to vote for something beyond the person they want in the Oval Office.

This is pretty close to my assessment, and one I'd couch in all sorts of casuistry and pragmatics that wrestle with the difficult question of weighing more Trump against pushing for more fundamental change. Acting as though that question cannot be a difficult one is where I have trouble.


This process started for me in earnest for Obama's second term. Seeing where Democrats have gone since the soaring rhetoric of Obama's 08 campaign is disappointing.

When I found out about Obama's bombings having 9 out of 10 people killed be innocent civilians I realized things had gone too far. Now looking back more soberly it was way worse than I knew much longer than I realized.

I'm totally with you, I bring up the problem that Dems have with admitting that tons of awful shit happened under Obama's deliberate watch all the time, but I still think getting Trump out is the right way to go, which is a lurking point to my inquiry in the first place.

That Trump shouldn't be president is something most of us agree on. Would you agree that voting for Biden (independent of his opposition) based on what you know about him conflicts more with your politics and ethics than when you voted for Obama or Hillary (based on what you knew/believed at the time)?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Erasme
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Bahamas15899 Posts
April 30 2020 00:34 GMT
#45923
The fact that some states are opening up sooner than some of the europeans countries who were hit earlier speaks tons on how your governors regard your life compared to the stocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7lxwFEB6FI “‘Drain the swamp’? Stupid saying, means nothing, but you guys loved it so I kept saying it.”
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
April 30 2020 00:35 GMT
#45924
Corporations are people, my friend
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12422 Posts
April 30 2020 00:38 GMT
#45925
On April 30 2020 09:34 Erasme wrote:
The fact that some states are opening up sooner than some of the europeans countries who were hit earlier speaks tons on how your governors regard your life compared to the stocks.


100%. Even Europe is opening slightly early imo, I hope we don't come to regret this.
No will to live, no wish to die
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 30 2020 01:02 GMT
#45926
--- Nuked ---
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35172 Posts
April 30 2020 01:59 GMT
#45927
Makes me glad that I have a sane governor that shut things down early, has a general plan for phases of re-opening, and a list of criteria that needs to be met before a county does so.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11787 Posts
April 30 2020 08:41 GMT
#45928
On April 30 2020 09:38 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 09:34 Erasme wrote:
The fact that some states are opening up sooner than some of the europeans countries who were hit earlier speaks tons on how your governors regard your life compared to the stocks.


100%. Even Europe is opening slightly early imo, I hope we don't come to regret this.


True. Europe has manage to get the Virus to reliably trend downwards now, but i fear that if we open too much too quickly, all of that is lost. And the lag of data to action is horrible. What we do now is seen in effects in two weeks, so if we notice we have opened to far, we have already opened too far for two weeks.

Meanwhile, the US is still in a complete upswing, with active cases still increasing pretty much in every state, has now passed a Vietnam war in deaths, and just opens up again.That is just utter insanity. More US citizens have now died of Corona, in about two months, than have died in all of the Vietnam war. And the reaction is "Yeah, we should probably stop caring about this."

I am just wondering if you will stop at WW1 deaths, or go up to WW2.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23793 Posts
April 30 2020 09:05 GMT
#45929
On April 30 2020 17:41 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 09:38 Nebuchad wrote:
On April 30 2020 09:34 Erasme wrote:
The fact that some states are opening up sooner than some of the europeans countries who were hit earlier speaks tons on how your governors regard your life compared to the stocks.


100%. Even Europe is opening slightly early imo, I hope we don't come to regret this.


True. Europe has manage to get the Virus to reliably trend downwards now, but i fear that if we open too much too quickly, all of that is lost. And the lag of data to action is horrible. What we do now is seen in effects in two weeks, so if we notice we have opened to far, we have already opened too far for two weeks.

Meanwhile, the US is still in a complete upswing, with active cases still increasing pretty much in every state, has now passed a Vietnam war in deaths, and just opens up again.That is just utter insanity. More US citizens have now died of Corona, in about two months, than have died in all of the Vietnam war. And the reaction is "Yeah, we should probably stop caring about this."

I am just wondering if you will stop at WW1 deaths, or go up to WW2.


The worst is ahead of us in the US imo. Whole host of reasons, not the least of which is the gigantic hole in state and local budgets this is blowing with little hope for a competent federal bailout. Cuomo already plans to cut education to make up the shortfall (or is at least saying so to pressure DC), so we can expect a lot more of that across the country.

With Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo proposing a possible 20% cut in state aid to schools – an idea that surfaced for real over the weekend less than four weeks into the state’s new fiscal year – the New York State School Boards Association said Monday that districts statewide could be forced to cut a range of student programs and lay off tens of thousands of staff.

“The quality of public education in all of our communities – urban, suburban and rural – is at stake," said the education group.

On Monday, the group joined Cuomo and others in making a clear plea: Washington needs to step in with a bailout – on top of those for everything from unemployment benefit payments to small businesses and health care – that this time is directed in unrestricted money for states and localities, like schools, to use to balance their red-ink budgets. But that is no sure thing and, even if aid flows directly to the state government, no one knows how much Albany will try to keep for itself or share with local governments.


buffalonews.com
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22189 Posts
April 30 2020 09:23 GMT
#45930
On April 30 2020 18:05 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 17:41 Simberto wrote:
On April 30 2020 09:38 Nebuchad wrote:
On April 30 2020 09:34 Erasme wrote:
The fact that some states are opening up sooner than some of the europeans countries who were hit earlier speaks tons on how your governors regard your life compared to the stocks.


100%. Even Europe is opening slightly early imo, I hope we don't come to regret this.


True. Europe has manage to get the Virus to reliably trend downwards now, but i fear that if we open too much too quickly, all of that is lost. And the lag of data to action is horrible. What we do now is seen in effects in two weeks, so if we notice we have opened to far, we have already opened too far for two weeks.

Meanwhile, the US is still in a complete upswing, with active cases still increasing pretty much in every state, has now passed a Vietnam war in deaths, and just opens up again.That is just utter insanity. More US citizens have now died of Corona, in about two months, than have died in all of the Vietnam war. And the reaction is "Yeah, we should probably stop caring about this."

I am just wondering if you will stop at WW1 deaths, or go up to WW2.


The worst is ahead of us in the US imo. Whole host of reasons, not the least of which is the gigantic hole in state and local budgets this is blowing with little hope for a competent federal bailout. Cuomo already plans to cut education to make up the shortfall (or is at least saying so to pressure DC), so we can expect a lot more of that across the country.

Show nested quote +
With Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo proposing a possible 20% cut in state aid to schools – an idea that surfaced for real over the weekend less than four weeks into the state’s new fiscal year – the New York State School Boards Association said Monday that districts statewide could be forced to cut a range of student programs and lay off tens of thousands of staff.

“The quality of public education in all of our communities – urban, suburban and rural – is at stake," said the education group.

On Monday, the group joined Cuomo and others in making a clear plea: Washington needs to step in with a bailout – on top of those for everything from unemployment benefit payments to small businesses and health care – that this time is directed in unrestricted money for states and localities, like schools, to use to balance their red-ink budgets. But that is no sure thing and, even if aid flows directly to the state government, no one knows how much Albany will try to keep for itself or share with local governments.


buffalonews.com
Trying to force DC's hand by threatening to cut education seems weird to me when to many politicians seem to not care about education at the best of times.

It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
9037 Posts
April 30 2020 14:36 GMT
#45931
Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
April 30 2020 15:04 GMT
#45932
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet.


Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though.

So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system.

And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.".
Erasme
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Bahamas15899 Posts
April 30 2020 15:26 GMT
#45933
On April 30 2020 10:02 JimmiC wrote:
Some of this stuff is crazy and so complicated. Quebec is by far are worst hit province (half the total deaths and cases) and they are planning to open early elementary schools starting next week with a fair bit of rules around social distancing and so on, I'm not sure how it will work with 5 a six year olds. Which sounds crazy.

But there is also 250,000 kids across Quebec that take advantage of the breakfast program which means that their parents are likely either working poor, so they be at home alone if their parent or parents are still working and not getting enough food if or if not their working. Or their parent might have a addiction or who knows.

So while they are opening them up and some other things I don't believe the decision is being made based on economy or at least not economy alone. I'm not familiar with the states policies that are reopening but I'm guessing that they don't have these sort of social programs?


Yes, so they'd rather have their citizens get infected and die in the worst case scenario, than to write them another check for another month and so on. The economy doesn't work if your population is dying. For christs sake the economy depends on those workers not the other way around
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7lxwFEB6FI “‘Drain the swamp’? Stupid saying, means nothing, but you guys loved it so I kept saying it.”
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-04-30 15:31:13
April 30 2020 15:27 GMT
#45934
On May 01 2020 00:04 mahrgell wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet.


Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though.

So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system.

And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.".

With a bit of context to the 2nd paragraph of mahrgell: we have 10 million people on "Kurzarbeit". Where the state pays 60% of net pay to workers whose usual workflow has been disrupted by at least 50% so that they wont be laid off.

That is the company has at least 50% less to do for the workers.

e: a quick correction. Not that many are actually not working, but they were registered for it by their employer. The actual number I do not have a source for at the moment.
passive quaranstream fan
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
9037 Posts
April 30 2020 15:53 GMT
#45935
On May 01 2020 00:04 mahrgell wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet.


Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though.

So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system.

And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.".

It would be nice if that wasn't the case, that the system failed them. But even taking that into consideration, the amount of people/places not working is still staggeringly high. We've talked briefly here about how nothing will be full to capacity for a long time, but that also holds true for the people working. If you don't have a full restaurant/bar, then you're not going to have that many employees getting hours. Those people will remain on the dole for a long time until things start to "normalize" where more people = more employees to serve. This is also true for hotels and retail. It would be nice if the companies, like Art said, provided some kind of minimum wage even if they're not working, to help slow the bleed. But it won't happen.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 30 2020 16:01 GMT
#45936
--- Nuked ---
Nouar
Profile Joined May 2009
France3270 Posts
April 30 2020 16:33 GMT
#45937
On April 30 2020 17:41 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2020 09:38 Nebuchad wrote:
On April 30 2020 09:34 Erasme wrote:
The fact that some states are opening up sooner than some of the europeans countries who were hit earlier speaks tons on how your governors regard your life compared to the stocks.


100%. Even Europe is opening slightly early imo, I hope we don't come to regret this.


True. Europe has manage to get the Virus to reliably trend downwards now, but i fear that if we open too much too quickly, all of that is lost. And the lag of data to action is horrible. What we do now is seen in effects in two weeks, so if we notice we have opened to far, we have already opened too far for two weeks.

Meanwhile, the US is still in a complete upswing, with active cases still increasing pretty much in every state, has now passed a Vietnam war in deaths, and just opens up again.That is just utter insanity. More US citizens have now died of Corona, in about two months, than have died in all of the Vietnam war. And the reaction is "Yeah, we should probably stop caring about this."

I am just wondering if you will stop at WW1 deaths, or go up to WW2.

You cannot compare the death toll of this virus with wars. War deaths are dramatic because the younger generation is culled and demographics are messed up for generations. Coronavirus mainly targets the elderly and wouldn't have nearly the same impact on the country in the long term (demographic pyramid etc) even if the amount of casualties was 5x the one of war.

Of course it's sad to see family go before their time has come, and absolutely terrible when they have to go in isolation, not seeing anyone before passing and should be avoided as much as possible, but you can't really compare those.
(controversal view ahead, warning, this is not my opinion or a wish in any case, just cold analysis) On the contrary, more old people dying means less burden on the health system and on public pension schemes, while the will money is redistributed to their descendance. Could have a negative impact on elderly care employment, but there is already too few workers there so I wouldn't expect any issue.

Europe is reopening a bit too soon for health purposes, but governments are realising that if they want their countries to avoid the worst of the economic damage, they have to do what they can now. Any more and the scale of the collapse would be exponentially larger. For now unemployment figures are still okay.

So measures are taken to minimize risks, now that plans had the time to be made to lessen it, and they will slowly open what they can. The plan was never to close until the virus dissappears, only to delay it until we are ready to cope and not caught unaware. (There was time in January/February to prepare, but... nothing was done or too little.)
NoiR
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
April 30 2020 16:40 GMT
#45938
On May 01 2020 00:53 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 00:04 mahrgell wrote:
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet.


Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though.

So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system.

And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.".

It would be nice if that wasn't the case, that the system failed them. But even taking that into consideration, the amount of people/places not working is still staggeringly high. We've talked briefly here about how nothing will be full to capacity for a long time, but that also holds true for the people working. If you don't have a full restaurant/bar, then you're not going to have that many employees getting hours. Those people will remain on the dole for a long time until things start to "normalize" where more people = more employees to serve. This is also true for hotels and retail. It would be nice if the companies, like Art said, provided some kind of minimum wage even if they're not working, to help slow the bleed. But it won't happen.

That's the State paying these benefits. Some companies do pay some or the entirety of the difference to nominal wages but that's not mandatory.
passive quaranstream fan
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
April 30 2020 16:52 GMT
#45939
On May 01 2020 00:27 Artisreal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2020 00:04 mahrgell wrote:
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet.


Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though.

So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system.

And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.".

With a bit of context to the 2nd paragraph of mahrgell: we have 10 million people on "Kurzarbeit". Where the state pays 60% of net pay to workers whose usual workflow has been disrupted by at least 50% so that they wont be laid off.

That is the company has at least 50% less to do for the workers.

e: a quick correction. Not that many are actually not working, but they were registered for it by their employer. The actual number I do not have a source for at the moment.


Well, sure, the impact on the "economy" is pretty much the same here. But the impact on people's financial survival is drastically different.
And Kurzarbeit also has the advantage of still being employed. If you are 50+ and would have troubles finding a new job, knowing that you can continue with your current employer once tthe situation allows it, this alone is extremely valuable.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
April 30 2020 16:57 GMT
#45940
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet.


There was a piece on cnn about this today. They did ask some experts and the consensus was that halve of the jobs would come back very quickly and the other halve might take longer.
If the pandemic starts to die down and everything opens up again and there does not follow a huge breakout again then recovery could be quick i think,maybe even faster then suggested in the piece on cnn.
Its like a spring under tension,lots of energy build up waiting to be released. Some households also managed to safe money during this time,though that obviously doesnt go for everyone. Its kinda difficult to spend a lot of money when you dont go out.
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