US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2297
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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22736 Posts
On April 30 2020 08:39 farvacola wrote: I'm totally with you, I bring up the problem that Dems have with admitting that tons of awful shit happened under Obama's deliberate watch all the time, but I still think getting Trump out is the right way to go, which is a lurking point to my inquiry in the first place. That Trump shouldn't be president is something most of us agree on. Would you agree that voting for Biden (independent of his opposition) based on what you know about him conflicts more with your politics and ethics than when you voted for Obama or Hillary (based on what you knew/believed at the time)? | ||
Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland11933 Posts
On April 30 2020 09:34 Erasme wrote: The fact that some states are opening up sooner than some of the europeans countries who were hit earlier speaks tons on how your governors regard your life compared to the stocks. 100%. Even Europe is opening slightly early imo, I hope we don't come to regret this. | ||
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Gahlo
United States35093 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11340 Posts
On April 30 2020 09:38 Nebuchad wrote: 100%. Even Europe is opening slightly early imo, I hope we don't come to regret this. True. Europe has manage to get the Virus to reliably trend downwards now, but i fear that if we open too much too quickly, all of that is lost. And the lag of data to action is horrible. What we do now is seen in effects in two weeks, so if we notice we have opened to far, we have already opened too far for two weeks. Meanwhile, the US is still in a complete upswing, with active cases still increasing pretty much in every state, has now passed a Vietnam war in deaths, and just opens up again.That is just utter insanity. More US citizens have now died of Corona, in about two months, than have died in all of the Vietnam war. And the reaction is "Yeah, we should probably stop caring about this." I am just wondering if you will stop at WW1 deaths, or go up to WW2. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22736 Posts
On April 30 2020 17:41 Simberto wrote: True. Europe has manage to get the Virus to reliably trend downwards now, but i fear that if we open too much too quickly, all of that is lost. And the lag of data to action is horrible. What we do now is seen in effects in two weeks, so if we notice we have opened to far, we have already opened too far for two weeks. Meanwhile, the US is still in a complete upswing, with active cases still increasing pretty much in every state, has now passed a Vietnam war in deaths, and just opens up again.That is just utter insanity. More US citizens have now died of Corona, in about two months, than have died in all of the Vietnam war. And the reaction is "Yeah, we should probably stop caring about this." I am just wondering if you will stop at WW1 deaths, or go up to WW2. The worst is ahead of us in the US imo. Whole host of reasons, not the least of which is the gigantic hole in state and local budgets this is blowing with little hope for a competent federal bailout. Cuomo already plans to cut education to make up the shortfall (or is at least saying so to pressure DC), so we can expect a lot more of that across the country. With Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo proposing a possible 20% cut in state aid to schools – an idea that surfaced for real over the weekend less than four weeks into the state’s new fiscal year – the New York State School Boards Association said Monday that districts statewide could be forced to cut a range of student programs and lay off tens of thousands of staff. “The quality of public education in all of our communities – urban, suburban and rural – is at stake," said the education group. On Monday, the group joined Cuomo and others in making a clear plea: Washington needs to step in with a bailout – on top of those for everything from unemployment benefit payments to small businesses and health care – that this time is directed in unrestricted money for states and localities, like schools, to use to balance their red-ink budgets. But that is no sure thing and, even if aid flows directly to the state government, no one knows how much Albany will try to keep for itself or share with local governments. buffalonews.com | ||
Gorsameth
Netherlands21377 Posts
On April 30 2020 18:05 GreenHorizons wrote: Trying to force DC's hand by threatening to cut education seems weird to me when to many politicians seem to not care about education at the best of times.The worst is ahead of us in the US imo. Whole host of reasons, not the least of which is the gigantic hole in state and local budgets this is blowing with little hope for a competent federal bailout. Cuomo already plans to cut education to make up the shortfall (or is at least saying so to pressure DC), so we can expect a lot more of that across the country. buffalonews.com | ||
ZerOCoolSC2
8939 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3942 Posts
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet. Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though. So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system. And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.". | ||
Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
On April 30 2020 10:02 JimmiC wrote: Some of this stuff is crazy and so complicated. Quebec is by far are worst hit province (half the total deaths and cases) and they are planning to open early elementary schools starting next week with a fair bit of rules around social distancing and so on, I'm not sure how it will work with 5 a six year olds. Which sounds crazy. But there is also 250,000 kids across Quebec that take advantage of the breakfast program which means that their parents are likely either working poor, so they be at home alone if their parent or parents are still working and not getting enough food if or if not their working. Or their parent might have a addiction or who knows. So while they are opening them up and some other things I don't believe the decision is being made based on economy or at least not economy alone. I'm not familiar with the states policies that are reopening but I'm guessing that they don't have these sort of social programs? Yes, so they'd rather have their citizens get infected and die in the worst case scenario, than to write them another check for another month and so on. The economy doesn't work if your population is dying. For christs sake the economy depends on those workers not the other way around | ||
Artisreal
Germany9234 Posts
On May 01 2020 00:04 mahrgell wrote: Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though. So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system. And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.". With a bit of context to the 2nd paragraph of mahrgell: we have 10 million people on "Kurzarbeit". Where the state pays 60% of net pay to workers whose usual workflow has been disrupted by at least 50% so that they wont be laid off. That is the company has at least 50% less to do for the workers. e: a quick correction. Not that many are actually not working, but they were registered for it by their employer. The actual number I do not have a source for at the moment. | ||
ZerOCoolSC2
8939 Posts
On May 01 2020 00:04 mahrgell wrote: Just for comparison: While the US has now reported 4-6 million new unemployed per week, Germany today had the shocking news, when it was announced, that in entire April unemployment had risen by 375k (instead of the Corona-expected loss of 75k jobs, which would have already been the first April in eternities with a job loss). And yes, the US is about 4 times bigger. Doesn't really change the relation though. So those US numbers are not only because of the crisis. They are also due to the system. And whenever I see this topic, I'm always amazed, how people simply accept those numbers like "yeah, its really bad, it is really sad.... but those people had to be fired, cuz everything is bad. That's just the natural thing.". It would be nice if that wasn't the case, that the system failed them. But even taking that into consideration, the amount of people/places not working is still staggeringly high. We've talked briefly here about how nothing will be full to capacity for a long time, but that also holds true for the people working. If you don't have a full restaurant/bar, then you're not going to have that many employees getting hours. Those people will remain on the dole for a long time until things start to "normalize" where more people = more employees to serve. This is also true for hotels and retail. It would be nice if the companies, like Art said, provided some kind of minimum wage even if they're not working, to help slow the bleed. But it won't happen. | ||
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On April 30 2020 17:41 Simberto wrote: True. Europe has manage to get the Virus to reliably trend downwards now, but i fear that if we open too much too quickly, all of that is lost. And the lag of data to action is horrible. What we do now is seen in effects in two weeks, so if we notice we have opened to far, we have already opened too far for two weeks. Meanwhile, the US is still in a complete upswing, with active cases still increasing pretty much in every state, has now passed a Vietnam war in deaths, and just opens up again.That is just utter insanity. More US citizens have now died of Corona, in about two months, than have died in all of the Vietnam war. And the reaction is "Yeah, we should probably stop caring about this." I am just wondering if you will stop at WW1 deaths, or go up to WW2. You cannot compare the death toll of this virus with wars. War deaths are dramatic because the younger generation is culled and demographics are messed up for generations. Coronavirus mainly targets the elderly and wouldn't have nearly the same impact on the country in the long term (demographic pyramid etc) even if the amount of casualties was 5x the one of war. Of course it's sad to see family go before their time has come, and absolutely terrible when they have to go in isolation, not seeing anyone before passing and should be avoided as much as possible, but you can't really compare those. (controversal view ahead, warning, this is not my opinion or a wish in any case, just cold analysis) On the contrary, more old people dying means less burden on the health system and on public pension schemes, while the will money is redistributed to their descendance. Could have a negative impact on elderly care employment, but there is already too few workers there so I wouldn't expect any issue. Europe is reopening a bit too soon for health purposes, but governments are realising that if they want their countries to avoid the worst of the economic damage, they have to do what they can now. Any more and the scale of the collapse would be exponentially larger. For now unemployment figures are still okay. So measures are taken to minimize risks, now that plans had the time to be made to lessen it, and they will slowly open what they can. The plan was never to close until the virus dissappears, only to delay it until we are ready to cope and not caught unaware. (There was time in January/February to prepare, but... nothing was done or too little.) | ||
Artisreal
Germany9234 Posts
On May 01 2020 00:53 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: It would be nice if that wasn't the case, that the system failed them. But even taking that into consideration, the amount of people/places not working is still staggeringly high. We've talked briefly here about how nothing will be full to capacity for a long time, but that also holds true for the people working. If you don't have a full restaurant/bar, then you're not going to have that many employees getting hours. Those people will remain on the dole for a long time until things start to "normalize" where more people = more employees to serve. This is also true for hotels and retail. It would be nice if the companies, like Art said, provided some kind of minimum wage even if they're not working, to help slow the bleed. But it won't happen. That's the State paying these benefits. Some companies do pay some or the entirety of the difference to nominal wages but that's not mandatory. | ||
mahrgell
Germany3942 Posts
On May 01 2020 00:27 Artisreal wrote: With a bit of context to the 2nd paragraph of mahrgell: we have 10 million people on "Kurzarbeit". Where the state pays 60% of net pay to workers whose usual workflow has been disrupted by at least 50% so that they wont be laid off. That is the company has at least 50% less to do for the workers. e: a quick correction. Not that many are actually not working, but they were registered for it by their employer. The actual number I do not have a source for at the moment. Well, sure, the impact on the "economy" is pretty much the same here. But the impact on people's financial survival is drastically different. And Kurzarbeit also has the advantage of still being employed. If you are 50+ and would have troubles finding a new job, knowing that you can continue with your current employer once tthe situation allows it, this alone is extremely valuable. | ||
pmh
1351 Posts
On April 30 2020 23:36 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: Anyone want to guess where the unemployment number ends up at after all of this? We just hit 30mil that have filed for unemployment. And if this is anything like 2008, it'll be a long while before a lot of the economy gets back on its feet. There was a piece on cnn about this today. They did ask some experts and the consensus was that halve of the jobs would come back very quickly and the other halve might take longer. If the pandemic starts to die down and everything opens up again and there does not follow a huge breakout again then recovery could be quick i think,maybe even faster then suggested in the piece on cnn. Its like a spring under tension,lots of energy build up waiting to be released. Some households also managed to safe money during this time,though that obviously doesnt go for everyone. Its kinda difficult to spend a lot of money when you dont go out. | ||
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