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On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives.
It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are.
Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have.
It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks.
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On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives.
I agree with you. I think the local elections for a lot of places will have a longer lasting impact on many lives as well. I'm basically farvacola at this point. To mitigate the damage that will be done, we have to at least take a step in the right direction and get things back on track. Once that is done, then we can worry about the progressive/aggressive shift the country needs to head in. But until that moment comes, getting local governments as progressively packed and this administration out should be the only concern.
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The world is going to be losing millions of people to climate change monthly before Democrats realize local progressive politicians 5-10 years from now is too little too late, like the US realized waiting for a half-assed shutdown has us losing thousands per day right now to covid-19.
Sucks because we can't just shut it all down when the people start dying in large numbers (like we did with covid-19), by the time the mass die-offs (of humans, it's already happening ecologically) start it'll be too late to save most of humanity according to the best available science.
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Northern Ireland26362 Posts
It’s possibly a good time to be radical and do the previously unthinkable stuff right after coming out of this current crisis.
By virtue of many previously materially comfortable folks being dragged into the mire, problems with various structures getting widespread exposure etc.
Not sure how it is over in your various areas of the States but there is quite a palpable ‘we’re in this together’ atmosphere, people are pissed off at NHS underfunding, even more so than usual.
Strike while the iron’s hot.
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On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks.
If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution).
If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says.
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On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says.
As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person.
For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle.
So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me".
Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc.
So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]).
If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that.
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On April 12 2020 00:19 Wombat_NI wrote:
It’s possibly a good time to be radical and do the previously unthinkable stuff right after coming out of this current crisis.
By virtue of many previously materially comfortable folks being dragged into the mire, problems with various structures getting widespread exposure etc.
Not sure how it is over in your various areas of the States but there is quite a palpable ‘we’re in this together’ atmosphere, people are pissed off at NHS underfunding, even more so than usual.
Strike while the iron’s hot.
Honestly, my impression is that as a country we're more concerned about how "the economy" - and the stock market - will look when this is over than about the obvious failures in our healthcare system and disease control infrastructure that exacerbated the crisis. Too many people are much more interested in knowing when we can open the country back up for business and less interested in preventing more death. If the Fed's infinite money printing strategy is any indication, there must be one hell of a financial crisis buried under Trump's miracle economy, which is hopefully some consolation to the economy-obsessed folks.
Politically, it seems to have driven apathy rather than a big push to reform the system. Part of the reason Sanders dropped seems to be that no one is interested in the presidential campaign right now, let alone issues like universal healthcare. Don't really see any kind of unity around meaningful change in the US at the moment.
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On April 12 2020 00:55 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says. As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person. For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle. So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me". Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc. So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]). If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that.
I mean, neither of our votes matter, I know that. But if “the American people” or “the American left” or “swing voters” (all nebulous concepts, maybe so much so to be meaningless) are being asked to throw the switch and decide which track the trolley goes on, you probably have an opinion what they should decide, and I’m inferring it’s something like “don’t throw the switch at all, and let the trolley try to call you complicit.”
I think there will almost certainly be an election in November (and if you disagree, I’d be interested to know why). It won’t be devoid of the sorts of undemocratic abuses you’re describing, and it remains to be seen if the coronavirus will present new and creative ways to suppress the vote, but at the end of the day, I think any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote, their votes will be tallied accurately within a reasonable margin of error. Low bar for an election, maybe.
And then I think Americans will accept the legitimacy of whoever won as being president in 2021, even if there are irregularities. And that person, either Biden or Trump, will have all the powers associated with the presidency.
Do you disagree on any particular point?
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On April 12 2020 01:44 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 00:55 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says. As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person. For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle. So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me". Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc. So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]). If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that. I mean, neither of our votes matter, I know that. But if “the American people” or “the American left” or “swing voters” (all nebulous concepts, maybe so much so to be meaningless) are being asked to throw the switch and decide which track the trolley goes on, you probably have an opinion what they should decide, and I’m inferring it’s something like “don’t throw the switch at all, and let the trolley try to call you complicit.” I think there will almost certainly be an election in November (and if you disagree, I’d be interested to know why). It won’t be devoid of the sorts of undemocratic abuses you’re describing, and it remains to be seen if the coronavirus will present new and creative ways to suppress the vote, but at the end of the day, I think any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote, their votes will be tallied accurately within a reasonable margin of error. Low bar for an election, maybe. And then I think Americans will accept the legitimacy of whoever won as being president in 2021, even if there are irregularities. And that person, either Biden or Trump, will have all the powers associated with the presidency. Do you disagree on any particular point?
The people to the left of Bernie and the "swing voters" in swing states at the allegorical switch are largely distinct groups, though there is some overlap. Typically I'm speaking from/about/raising the perspective of the countless people on the tracks.
I think the trolly question is a moral abstraction meant to distance the people pushing the trolly over their countrymen and fellow humans around the planet of their role/responsibility by starting the question with the presumption the trolly, tracks, and people tied to them are inevitable and unquestionable.
Within this faulty framing I suggested the only ethical action imo was to derail the trolly. In that way this ties into Wombat's point about striking while the iron is hot. Covid-19 has the trolly teetering and both Biden and Trump (and their supporters) want to get it back on the tracks (Trump's tracks lined with more people). Which is the place from which I argue derailing the teetering train is not only the ethical action, but necessary and more possible than it has been in our lives while what we'll need to do and how many people will be lost increases by the second.
We've seen coronavirus already impact Wisconsin/Illinois and Republicans/Democrats are fully willing to exploit it for political gain. With that and the Mueller investigation/Ukraine impeachment I think your confidence in a valid election even by US standards just prior to Trump is misplaced. That said I'd put the odds that there isn't more significant foreign interference, election fraud, voter suppression, etc. than 2016 very low and the odds that there will be enough to argue the results are questionable for more than just some of the losing side is closer to 50/50.
That said, I think most Americans will consider the election valid regardless if for no other reason than they can't imagine an alternative.
With all respect I disagree with pretty much everything about what you're saying but to try to wrap up the specifics you asked if I disagreed with I sorta missed: any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote as a matter of fact isn't true without a LOT of *'s and what you describe/what we have is a low bar for an election objectively/compared to other democracies in "1st world" countries would be my position.
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On April 12 2020 02:18 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 01:44 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 00:55 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says. As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person. For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle. So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me". Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc. So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]). If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that. I mean, neither of our votes matter, I know that. But if “the American people” or “the American left” or “swing voters” (all nebulous concepts, maybe so much so to be meaningless) are being asked to throw the switch and decide which track the trolley goes on, you probably have an opinion what they should decide, and I’m inferring it’s something like “don’t throw the switch at all, and let the trolley try to call you complicit.” I think there will almost certainly be an election in November (and if you disagree, I’d be interested to know why). It won’t be devoid of the sorts of undemocratic abuses you’re describing, and it remains to be seen if the coronavirus will present new and creative ways to suppress the vote, but at the end of the day, I think any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote, their votes will be tallied accurately within a reasonable margin of error. Low bar for an election, maybe. And then I think Americans will accept the legitimacy of whoever won as being president in 2021, even if there are irregularities. And that person, either Biden or Trump, will have all the powers associated with the presidency. Do you disagree on any particular point? The people to the left of Bernie and the "swing voters" in swing states at the allegorical switch are largely distinct groups, though there is some overlap. Typically I'm speaking from/about/raising the perspective of the countless people on the tracks. I think the trolly question is a moral abstraction meant to distance the people pushing the trolly over their countrymen and fellow humans around the planet of their role/responsibility by starting the question with the presumption the trolly, tracks, and people tied to them are inevitable and unquestionable. Within this faulty framing I suggested the only ethical action imo was to derail the trolly. In that way this ties into Wombat's point about striking while the iron is hot. Covid-19 has the trolly teetering and both Biden and Trump (and their supporters) want to get it back on the tracks (Trump's tracks lined with more people). Which is the place from which I argue derailing the teetering train is not only the ethical action, but necessary and more possible than it has been in our lives while what we'll need to do and how many people will be lost increases by the second. We've seen coronavirus already impact Wisconsin/Illinois and Republicans/Democrats are fully willing to exploit it for political gain. With that and the Mueller investigation/Ukraine impeachment I think your confidence in a valid election even by US standards just prior to Trump is misplaced. That said I'd put the odds that there isn't more significant foreign interference, election fraud, voter suppression, etc. than 2016 very low and the odds that there will be enough to argue the results are questionable for more than just some of the losing side is closer to 50/50. That said, I think most Americans will consider the election valid regardless if for no other reason than they can't imagine an alternative. With all respect I disagree with pretty much everything about what you're saying but to try to wrap up the specifics you asked if I disagreed with I sorta missed: as a matter of fact isn't true without a LOT of *'s and what you describe/what we have is a low bar for an election objectively/compared to other democracies in "1st world" countries would be my position.
Then to abandon the analogy you object to, and return to the original question: are you thinking this political movement will somehow produce a reasonable chance of neither Trump nor Biden being president in 2021? And if so, can you briefly describe a reasonable path from here to there? Because I honestly can’t picture it, and maybe a specific scenario would help people understand where you’re coming from.
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On April 12 2020 02:35 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 02:18 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 01:44 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 00:55 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says. As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person. For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle. So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me". Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc. So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]). If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that. I mean, neither of our votes matter, I know that. But if “the American people” or “the American left” or “swing voters” (all nebulous concepts, maybe so much so to be meaningless) are being asked to throw the switch and decide which track the trolley goes on, you probably have an opinion what they should decide, and I’m inferring it’s something like “don’t throw the switch at all, and let the trolley try to call you complicit.” I think there will almost certainly be an election in November (and if you disagree, I’d be interested to know why). It won’t be devoid of the sorts of undemocratic abuses you’re describing, and it remains to be seen if the coronavirus will present new and creative ways to suppress the vote, but at the end of the day, I think any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote, their votes will be tallied accurately within a reasonable margin of error. Low bar for an election, maybe. And then I think Americans will accept the legitimacy of whoever won as being president in 2021, even if there are irregularities. And that person, either Biden or Trump, will have all the powers associated with the presidency. Do you disagree on any particular point? The people to the left of Bernie and the "swing voters" in swing states at the allegorical switch are largely distinct groups, though there is some overlap. Typically I'm speaking from/about/raising the perspective of the countless people on the tracks. I think the trolly question is a moral abstraction meant to distance the people pushing the trolly over their countrymen and fellow humans around the planet of their role/responsibility by starting the question with the presumption the trolly, tracks, and people tied to them are inevitable and unquestionable. Within this faulty framing I suggested the only ethical action imo was to derail the trolly. In that way this ties into Wombat's point about striking while the iron is hot. Covid-19 has the trolly teetering and both Biden and Trump (and their supporters) want to get it back on the tracks (Trump's tracks lined with more people). Which is the place from which I argue derailing the teetering train is not only the ethical action, but necessary and more possible than it has been in our lives while what we'll need to do and how many people will be lost increases by the second. We've seen coronavirus already impact Wisconsin/Illinois and Republicans/Democrats are fully willing to exploit it for political gain. With that and the Mueller investigation/Ukraine impeachment I think your confidence in a valid election even by US standards just prior to Trump is misplaced. That said I'd put the odds that there isn't more significant foreign interference, election fraud, voter suppression, etc. than 2016 very low and the odds that there will be enough to argue the results are questionable for more than just some of the losing side is closer to 50/50. That said, I think most Americans will consider the election valid regardless if for no other reason than they can't imagine an alternative. With all respect I disagree with pretty much everything about what you're saying but to try to wrap up the specifics you asked if I disagreed with I sorta missed: any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote as a matter of fact isn't true without a LOT of *'s and what you describe/what we have is a low bar for an election objectively/compared to other democracies in "1st world" countries would be my position. Then to abandon the analogy you object to, and return to the original question: are you thinking this political movement will somehow produce a reasonable chance of neither Trump nor Biden being president in 2021? And if so, can you briefly describe a reasonable path from here to there? Because I honestly can’t picture it, and maybe a specific scenario would help people understand where you’re coming from.
Might be easier to amend the trolly analogy to a less imperfect (anything short of a treatise will be) one but let's see.
Odds aren't great it will, but revolutionary optimism springs eternal. What would it look like? Starting today it would be Biden's support plummeting when people see both his record and mental/physical condition with more scrutiny (our media is unlikely to provide). Then, desperate to replace him (before whatever becomes of the convention) Democrats across the country reject someone like Cuomo, Clinton, Buttigieg or anyone to the right of Bernie as a suitable replacement and he cleans up enough delegates in June to make it clean electorally.
Unfortunately it seems that the overwhelming number of the most politically involved Democrats have seen the worst of Biden and chose to actively support it and demand those that find it unacceptable support him anyway.
Just to be clear Bernie isn't really "derailing" imo, but hopping to an off-screen track that has far fewer people than the others with them spaced further out.
Trolly version:
+ Show Spoiler +"Derailing" would fall more under refusing to move forward electorally until we committed to rebuilding the whole thing from trolly to track. I'm more just trying to encourage the people getting kicked off the trolly to the front to work to slow the trolly and untie people from the tracks (solidarity from newly unemployed middle class), encourage those kicked off to the back to not start pushing ( not tell people "Vote for Biden! It's the only moral mature choice!"), and those kicked to the sides of the trolly (affluent/comfortable onlookers under minimal/temporary financial stress) to try to tip that bih over before the billionaires send it over the edge of a rollercoaster style drop heading straight for the most marginalized people in society on both the Biden and Trump track (significantly less so, like a much bigger distance than between Biden and Trump, is the Bernie track,). The Bernie track the one being still a reasonable and viable path within the political imagination of most Americans imo.
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On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks.
Even if you believe the democrats are shit and dooming us, you can't be unaware of the hundred of environmental regulations and all the international agreements and pacts the democrats have worked for years to implement that Trump has scrapped out of spite and science denial.
Again, you seem to just reason as if you were totally unaware that nuances even exist. Yeah, Burger King sucks, but again, I'd rather eat a burger king than juicy dog poop for lunch. Your whole contribution to this thread is to say that both are bad.
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On April 12 2020 03:06 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. Even if you believe the democrats are shit and dooming us, you can't be unaware of the hundred of environmental regulations and all the international agreements and pacts the democrats have worked for years to implement that Trump has scrapped out of spite and science denial.
Of course I'm aware, that he could scrap decades worth of work from Democrats with a EO is part of the problem with "going back to normal".
My post preceding yours (but following the one you quoted) is loaded full of nuance btw.
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I'll be honest, if this crisis does not yield a change in the view on public healthcare in the USA, I'm going to loose all hope in USA reclaiming the top position that it once took in the democratic civilized world. I do hope at least this will lead to some positive changes in the EU, especially in the countries that failed on this "exam". I have to say I'm positively stunned by my country (Croatia) and its strict response that is now bearing fruits. We are actually having linear growth and slowly see the numbers of daily infected people drop.
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If your only contribution to the choice of where we're eating is to point out that poop is bad and that the people who want to eat somewhere else than Burger King or want to improve the menu of Burger King have unrealistic expectations and should be shunned, is that fundamentally different from just wanting to eat at Burger King?
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On April 12 2020 03:01 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 02:35 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 02:18 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 01:44 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 00:55 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says. As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person. For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle. So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me". Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc. So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]). If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that. I mean, neither of our votes matter, I know that. But if “the American people” or “the American left” or “swing voters” (all nebulous concepts, maybe so much so to be meaningless) are being asked to throw the switch and decide which track the trolley goes on, you probably have an opinion what they should decide, and I’m inferring it’s something like “don’t throw the switch at all, and let the trolley try to call you complicit.” I think there will almost certainly be an election in November (and if you disagree, I’d be interested to know why). It won’t be devoid of the sorts of undemocratic abuses you’re describing, and it remains to be seen if the coronavirus will present new and creative ways to suppress the vote, but at the end of the day, I think any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote, their votes will be tallied accurately within a reasonable margin of error. Low bar for an election, maybe. And then I think Americans will accept the legitimacy of whoever won as being president in 2021, even if there are irregularities. And that person, either Biden or Trump, will have all the powers associated with the presidency. Do you disagree on any particular point? The people to the left of Bernie and the "swing voters" in swing states at the allegorical switch are largely distinct groups, though there is some overlap. Typically I'm speaking from/about/raising the perspective of the countless people on the tracks. I think the trolly question is a moral abstraction meant to distance the people pushing the trolly over their countrymen and fellow humans around the planet of their role/responsibility by starting the question with the presumption the trolly, tracks, and people tied to them are inevitable and unquestionable. Within this faulty framing I suggested the only ethical action imo was to derail the trolly. In that way this ties into Wombat's point about striking while the iron is hot. Covid-19 has the trolly teetering and both Biden and Trump (and their supporters) want to get it back on the tracks (Trump's tracks lined with more people). Which is the place from which I argue derailing the teetering train is not only the ethical action, but necessary and more possible than it has been in our lives while what we'll need to do and how many people will be lost increases by the second. We've seen coronavirus already impact Wisconsin/Illinois and Republicans/Democrats are fully willing to exploit it for political gain. With that and the Mueller investigation/Ukraine impeachment I think your confidence in a valid election even by US standards just prior to Trump is misplaced. That said I'd put the odds that there isn't more significant foreign interference, election fraud, voter suppression, etc. than 2016 very low and the odds that there will be enough to argue the results are questionable for more than just some of the losing side is closer to 50/50. That said, I think most Americans will consider the election valid regardless if for no other reason than they can't imagine an alternative. With all respect I disagree with pretty much everything about what you're saying but to try to wrap up the specifics you asked if I disagreed with I sorta missed: any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote as a matter of fact isn't true without a LOT of *'s and what you describe/what we have is a low bar for an election objectively/compared to other democracies in "1st world" countries would be my position. Then to abandon the analogy you object to, and return to the original question: are you thinking this political movement will somehow produce a reasonable chance of neither Trump nor Biden being president in 2021? And if so, can you briefly describe a reasonable path from here to there? Because I honestly can’t picture it, and maybe a specific scenario would help people understand where you’re coming from. Might be easier to amend the trolly analogy to a less imperfect (anything short of a treatise will be) one but let's see. Odds aren't great it will, but revolutionary optimism springs eternal. What would it look like? Starting today it would be Biden's support plummeting when people see both his record and mental/physical condition with more scrutiny (our media is unlikely to provide). Then, desperate to replace him (before whatever becomes of the convention) Democrats across the country reject someone like Cuomo, Clinton, Buttigieg or anyone to the right of Bernie as a suitable replacement and he cleans up enough delegates in June to make it clean electorally. Unfortunately it seems that the overwhelming number of the most politically involved Democrats have seen the worst of Biden and chose to actively support it and demand those that find it unacceptable support him anyway. Just to be clear Bernie isn't really "derailing" imo, but hopping to an off-screen track that has far fewer people than the others with them spaced further out. Trolly version: + Show Spoiler +"Derailing" would fall more under refusing to move forward electorally until we committed to rebuilding the whole thing from trolly to track. I'm more just trying to encourage the people getting kicked off the trolly to the front to work to slow the trolly and untie people from the tracks (solidarity from newly unemployed middle class), encourage those kicked off to the back to not start pushing ( not tell people "Vote for Biden! It's the only moral mature choice!"), and those kicked to the sides of the trolly (affluent/comfortable onlookers under minimal/temporary financial stress) to try to tip that bih over before the billionaires send it over the edge of a rollercoaster style drop heading straight for the most marginalized people in society on both the Biden and Trump track (significantly less so, like a much bigger distance than between Biden and Trump, is the Bernie track,). The Bernie track the one being still a reasonable and viable path within the political imagination of most Americans imo.
Would you agree that the Bernie track (of all the tracks you might be persuaded to include under “acceptable”) has demonstrated the broadest appeal? And that we just recently concluded an electoral contest in which the Bernie track couldn’t find plurality support even among the “left?”
I mean, don’t get me wrong, a scenario in which Bernie somehow convinces Democrats to back him at the last minute sounds great to me. But Bernie just spent a year trying to convince them any way he knew how, and it didn’t work, right? What do you think will change? Coronavirus certainly didn’t seem to hurt Biden’s polling. If anything the opposite, actually.
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On April 12 2020 03:24 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 03:01 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 02:35 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 02:18 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 01:44 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 00:55 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says. As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person. For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle. So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me". Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc. So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]). If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that. I mean, neither of our votes matter, I know that. But if “the American people” or “the American left” or “swing voters” (all nebulous concepts, maybe so much so to be meaningless) are being asked to throw the switch and decide which track the trolley goes on, you probably have an opinion what they should decide, and I’m inferring it’s something like “don’t throw the switch at all, and let the trolley try to call you complicit.” I think there will almost certainly be an election in November (and if you disagree, I’d be interested to know why). It won’t be devoid of the sorts of undemocratic abuses you’re describing, and it remains to be seen if the coronavirus will present new and creative ways to suppress the vote, but at the end of the day, I think any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote, their votes will be tallied accurately within a reasonable margin of error. Low bar for an election, maybe. And then I think Americans will accept the legitimacy of whoever won as being president in 2021, even if there are irregularities. And that person, either Biden or Trump, will have all the powers associated with the presidency. Do you disagree on any particular point? The people to the left of Bernie and the "swing voters" in swing states at the allegorical switch are largely distinct groups, though there is some overlap. Typically I'm speaking from/about/raising the perspective of the countless people on the tracks. I think the trolly question is a moral abstraction meant to distance the people pushing the trolly over their countrymen and fellow humans around the planet of their role/responsibility by starting the question with the presumption the trolly, tracks, and people tied to them are inevitable and unquestionable. Within this faulty framing I suggested the only ethical action imo was to derail the trolly. In that way this ties into Wombat's point about striking while the iron is hot. Covid-19 has the trolly teetering and both Biden and Trump (and their supporters) want to get it back on the tracks (Trump's tracks lined with more people). Which is the place from which I argue derailing the teetering train is not only the ethical action, but necessary and more possible than it has been in our lives while what we'll need to do and how many people will be lost increases by the second. We've seen coronavirus already impact Wisconsin/Illinois and Republicans/Democrats are fully willing to exploit it for political gain. With that and the Mueller investigation/Ukraine impeachment I think your confidence in a valid election even by US standards just prior to Trump is misplaced. That said I'd put the odds that there isn't more significant foreign interference, election fraud, voter suppression, etc. than 2016 very low and the odds that there will be enough to argue the results are questionable for more than just some of the losing side is closer to 50/50. That said, I think most Americans will consider the election valid regardless if for no other reason than they can't imagine an alternative. With all respect I disagree with pretty much everything about what you're saying but to try to wrap up the specifics you asked if I disagreed with I sorta missed: any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote as a matter of fact isn't true without a LOT of *'s and what you describe/what we have is a low bar for an election objectively/compared to other democracies in "1st world" countries would be my position. Then to abandon the analogy you object to, and return to the original question: are you thinking this political movement will somehow produce a reasonable chance of neither Trump nor Biden being president in 2021? And if so, can you briefly describe a reasonable path from here to there? Because I honestly can’t picture it, and maybe a specific scenario would help people understand where you’re coming from. Might be easier to amend the trolly analogy to a less imperfect (anything short of a treatise will be) one but let's see. Odds aren't great it will, but revolutionary optimism springs eternal. What would it look like? Starting today it would be Biden's support plummeting when people see both his record and mental/physical condition with more scrutiny (our media is unlikely to provide). Then, desperate to replace him (before whatever becomes of the convention) Democrats across the country reject someone like Cuomo, Clinton, Buttigieg or anyone to the right of Bernie as a suitable replacement and he cleans up enough delegates in June to make it clean electorally. Unfortunately it seems that the overwhelming number of the most politically involved Democrats have seen the worst of Biden and chose to actively support it and demand those that find it unacceptable support him anyway. Just to be clear Bernie isn't really "derailing" imo, but hopping to an off-screen track that has far fewer people than the others with them spaced further out. Trolly version: + Show Spoiler +"Derailing" would fall more under refusing to move forward electorally until we committed to rebuilding the whole thing from trolly to track. I'm more just trying to encourage the people getting kicked off the trolly to the front to work to slow the trolly and untie people from the tracks (solidarity from newly unemployed middle class), encourage those kicked off to the back to not start pushing ( not tell people "Vote for Biden! It's the only moral mature choice!"), and those kicked to the sides of the trolly (affluent/comfortable onlookers under minimal/temporary financial stress) to try to tip that bih over before the billionaires send it over the edge of a rollercoaster style drop heading straight for the most marginalized people in society on both the Biden and Trump track (significantly less so, like a much bigger distance than between Biden and Trump, is the Bernie track,). The Bernie track the one being still a reasonable and viable path within the political imagination of most Americans imo. Would you agree that the Bernie track (of all the tracks you might be persuaded to include under “acceptable”) has demonstrated the broadest appeal? And that we just recently concluded an electoral contest in which the Bernie track couldn’t find plurality support even among the “left?”
The very first contest (if you ignore everything leading up to it in media and the party) demonstrated that electoral contest was not valid imo. Several subsequent state contests demonstrated that as well. If you set aside the electoral fraud we all witnessed in Iowa and the subsequent voter suppression lines in Texas, Chicago, Wisconsin, etc.. the small fraction of the general electorate that constitutes the Democratic primary (typically a moderate group) selecting Biden doesn't allow me to draw the conclusions you have. Bernie support among the left is overwhelming, the left is only a small part of the Democratic primary (for many reasons within and beyond their control)
I mean, don’t get me wrong, a scenario in which Bernie somehow convinces Democrats to back him at the last minute sounds great to me. But Bernie just spent a year trying to convince them any way he knew how, and it didn’t work, right? What do you think will change? Coronavirus certainly didn’t seem to hurt Biden’s polling. If anything the opposite, actually.
I'm suggesting the increased scrutiny a competent and non-complacent media would provide could expose people to enough to realize how terrible of an idea it is to put Biden up against Trump and there's more than enough votes left to prevent that fate. Also that doing so by way of delayed primary voting and a delayed convention (made possible/unavoidable by covid-19) is far preferable than trying to come up with solutions after Biden is nominated or if he wins, or worse, if he loses.
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What electoral fraud in Iowa? You state it as if it is established fact but when I googled it to find out what you were referring to the top results were debunking false stories about voter fraud.
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On April 12 2020 03:59 Melliflue wrote:
What electoral fraud in Iowa? You state it as if it is established fact but when I googled it to find out what you were referring to the top results were debunking false stories about voter fraud.
You're probably seeing stuff about voter fraud from Trump which is distinct. The Democratic primary results of Iowa couldn't be supported by election desks across the country as a result of the declared winner not matching the vote tally.
NYT wrote up something on the math errors and refusal to correct them (though I'm not sure which specific errors remained after it was published) www.nytimes.com
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On April 12 2020 03:36 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 03:24 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 03:01 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 02:35 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 02:18 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 01:44 ChristianS wrote:On April 12 2020 00:55 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 12 2020 00:34 ChristianS wrote:On April 11 2020 22:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On April 11 2020 17:23 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Just read the NYT chat on the consequences of the COVID to the economy and the human cost of the crisis. It's chilling.
So, anyway, outside the 12d chess of some of our friends are doing (if Biden lose, then in 5 years, maybe our guy has better chances of winning because [insert logic]), the question one has to ask himself, and I think the only one that is truly relevant right now is: who, between Trump and Biden, and which administration, do you want to navigate the country out of the COVID crisis.
What is abundantly clear is that the reconstruction of the economy will shape the country for decades. We've got only two choices.
If the liberals win, they will have to govern with the progressives, that are a force to reckon with in both chambers. If the Republican win, it will give Trump and his goons a once in a century opportunity to remold America the way they want it to be.
I think it's going to be one of the most important elections of our lifetime. We are going to live with the consequences all our lives. It can't be either of them or we're doomed according to the best available science. I don't understand why Democrats refused to recognize that but here we are. Because as you rightly note how we come out of this will shape the country for decades and neither Trump or Biden have any intention to implement the radical climate/economic proposals required to mitigate catastrophic and irreversible warming in the shrinking ~10 year window we have. It's similar to covid imo in that the lag between action and consequence makes it more difficult to convince people of the necessity of that action. But much trickier in that the delay is measured in years and decades rather than days and weeks. If you don’t mind my asking: is your thinking that by you and people like you refusing to vote for either major party, neither Biden nor Trump will be president in 2021? If so, how? If not, doesn’t the bolded not make sense? Biff is saying that 2021-2024 specifically will be a critical period in shaping the US economy (including how much it focuses on reducing carbon emissions and other pollution). If you’re saying “on either track, the trolley will destroy all living things” I can understand the apathy about which track to put it on, but I also don’t think that’s what the science says. As of now a valid 2020 election is a probability. Depending on what one think constitutes a valid election influences where the baseline for that probability is for any particular person. For example. Several hour lines to vote are both ubiquitous to US elections and recognized (globally) as voter suppression. Both parties don't consider that (or when combined with specific demographic targeting) is sufficient to make elections invalid. Disenfranchising people that have served their time, closed polling stations, lost or miscounted votes, etc. None of that is enough to invalidate elections in the US. Both parties have demonstrated this as recently as this cycle. So we go back to the question of the probability there will be a valid 2020 election. I would set a different bar for what constitutes a valid election than what passes for one in the US. So before entertaining questions about 2021 I'd have to know what we mean by "me and people like me". Because me and people like me live in places where our votes have already been stripped of their meaning by the system working as intended. That's an electoral college that means my vote is actually for electors (determined at the state level), not the president through to people who have been disenfranchised by other means like conflicts between exploitative jobs and absurd election processes, pandemic voting, voter ID, etc. So we're the millions of people that whether we vote Biden, Columbo, Willy Wonka, or watch a Pokemon marathon instead of voting we get the same result (Biden get's the electoral votes assigned to us geographically [or doesn't for Democrats in Red states]). If you want me to put myself in the shoes of a different kind of voter we should specify that. I mean, neither of our votes matter, I know that. But if “the American people” or “the American left” or “swing voters” (all nebulous concepts, maybe so much so to be meaningless) are being asked to throw the switch and decide which track the trolley goes on, you probably have an opinion what they should decide, and I’m inferring it’s something like “don’t throw the switch at all, and let the trolley try to call you complicit.” I think there will almost certainly be an election in November (and if you disagree, I’d be interested to know why). It won’t be devoid of the sorts of undemocratic abuses you’re describing, and it remains to be seen if the coronavirus will present new and creative ways to suppress the vote, but at the end of the day, I think any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote, their votes will be tallied accurately within a reasonable margin of error. Low bar for an election, maybe. And then I think Americans will accept the legitimacy of whoever won as being president in 2021, even if there are irregularities. And that person, either Biden or Trump, will have all the powers associated with the presidency. Do you disagree on any particular point? The people to the left of Bernie and the "swing voters" in swing states at the allegorical switch are largely distinct groups, though there is some overlap. Typically I'm speaking from/about/raising the perspective of the countless people on the tracks. I think the trolly question is a moral abstraction meant to distance the people pushing the trolly over their countrymen and fellow humans around the planet of their role/responsibility by starting the question with the presumption the trolly, tracks, and people tied to them are inevitable and unquestionable. Within this faulty framing I suggested the only ethical action imo was to derail the trolly. In that way this ties into Wombat's point about striking while the iron is hot. Covid-19 has the trolly teetering and both Biden and Trump (and their supporters) want to get it back on the tracks (Trump's tracks lined with more people). Which is the place from which I argue derailing the teetering train is not only the ethical action, but necessary and more possible than it has been in our lives while what we'll need to do and how many people will be lost increases by the second. We've seen coronavirus already impact Wisconsin/Illinois and Republicans/Democrats are fully willing to exploit it for political gain. With that and the Mueller investigation/Ukraine impeachment I think your confidence in a valid election even by US standards just prior to Trump is misplaced. That said I'd put the odds that there isn't more significant foreign interference, election fraud, voter suppression, etc. than 2016 very low and the odds that there will be enough to argue the results are questionable for more than just some of the losing side is closer to 50/50. That said, I think most Americans will consider the election valid regardless if for no other reason than they can't imagine an alternative. With all respect I disagree with pretty much everything about what you're saying but to try to wrap up the specifics you asked if I disagreed with I sorta missed: any citizen sufficiently motivated will be allowed to vote as a matter of fact isn't true without a LOT of *'s and what you describe/what we have is a low bar for an election objectively/compared to other democracies in "1st world" countries would be my position. Then to abandon the analogy you object to, and return to the original question: are you thinking this political movement will somehow produce a reasonable chance of neither Trump nor Biden being president in 2021? And if so, can you briefly describe a reasonable path from here to there? Because I honestly can’t picture it, and maybe a specific scenario would help people understand where you’re coming from. Might be easier to amend the trolly analogy to a less imperfect (anything short of a treatise will be) one but let's see. Odds aren't great it will, but revolutionary optimism springs eternal. What would it look like? Starting today it would be Biden's support plummeting when people see both his record and mental/physical condition with more scrutiny (our media is unlikely to provide). Then, desperate to replace him (before whatever becomes of the convention) Democrats across the country reject someone like Cuomo, Clinton, Buttigieg or anyone to the right of Bernie as a suitable replacement and he cleans up enough delegates in June to make it clean electorally. Unfortunately it seems that the overwhelming number of the most politically involved Democrats have seen the worst of Biden and chose to actively support it and demand those that find it unacceptable support him anyway. Just to be clear Bernie isn't really "derailing" imo, but hopping to an off-screen track that has far fewer people than the others with them spaced further out. Trolly version: + Show Spoiler +"Derailing" would fall more under refusing to move forward electorally until we committed to rebuilding the whole thing from trolly to track. I'm more just trying to encourage the people getting kicked off the trolly to the front to work to slow the trolly and untie people from the tracks (solidarity from newly unemployed middle class), encourage those kicked off to the back to not start pushing ( not tell people "Vote for Biden! It's the only moral mature choice!"), and those kicked to the sides of the trolly (affluent/comfortable onlookers under minimal/temporary financial stress) to try to tip that bih over before the billionaires send it over the edge of a rollercoaster style drop heading straight for the most marginalized people in society on both the Biden and Trump track (significantly less so, like a much bigger distance than between Biden and Trump, is the Bernie track,). The Bernie track the one being still a reasonable and viable path within the political imagination of most Americans imo. Would you agree that the Bernie track (of all the tracks you might be persuaded to include under “acceptable”) has demonstrated the broadest appeal? And that we just recently concluded an electoral contest in which the Bernie track couldn’t find plurality support even among the “left?” The very first contest (if you ignore everything leading up to it in media and the party) demonstrated that electoral contest was not valid imo. Several subsequent state contests demonstrated that as well. If you set aside the electoral fraud we all witnessed in Iowa and the subsequent voter suppression lines in Texas, Chicago, Wisconsin, etc.. the small fraction of the general electorate that constitutes the Democratic primary (typically a moderate group) selecting Biden doesn't allow me to draw the conclusions you have. Bernie support among the left is overwhelming, the left is only a small part of the Democratic primary (for many reasons within and beyond their control) Show nested quote +I mean, don’t get me wrong, a scenario in which Bernie somehow convinces Democrats to back him at the last minute sounds great to me. But Bernie just spent a year trying to convince them any way he knew how, and it didn’t work, right? What do you think will change? Coronavirus certainly didn’t seem to hurt Biden’s polling. If anything the opposite, actually. I'm suggesting the increased scrutiny a competent and non-complacent media would provide could expose people to enough to realize how terrible of an idea it is to put Biden up against Trump and there's more than enough votes left to prevent that fate. Also that doing so by way of delayed primary voting and a delayed convention (made possible/unavoidable by covid-19) is far preferable than trying to come up with solutions after Biden is nominated or if he wins, or worse, if he loses.
But your assessment of the validity of the election isn’t the issue here. Whether you think those irregularities cost Bernie the primary (and I think it’s pretty clear they didn’t), there’s not any clear metric by which Bernie could claim legitimacy. He didn’t win the primary, he hasn’t been ahead in polls at almost any point, and at this point he himself has dropped out. You’re hoping some negative media will take Biden down, but he’s been in the public eye for decades, including as VP for eight years. If there’s an angle the media could cover him by that would sink him, why would it only happen in the next 6 months?
Do you think Bernie was wrong to drop out? Do you think he was likely to turn it around? And more importantly, do you really think there’s a real chance of convincing voters to support a guy who already dropped out?
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EPT
