EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 852
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On May 15 2017 01:50 RvB wrote: Am I right to conclude that this is a disaster for the SPD? This would be a very kind description. It is absolutely devastating for the SPD. But hey, when you present St. Martin and then completely fail to present any ideas or plans on federal level, but hope that his magic aura alone will carry you... In the end what seems to have happened across all those state elections is: - the SPD surge of voters got hit by a wave of resignation as there came absolutely no followup play form the SPD - meanwhile the former CDU voters who abstained the last election(s) suddenly all felt they have to prevent something and came back to the booth. Most of the former non-voters came to the CDU in all those elections lately... | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On May 15 2017 02:06 LegalLord wrote: Any particular reason they are doing badly? the SPD is generally perceived as weak on security issues, which together with the refugee situation has benefited the CDU who focused on law & order issues, the economic situation is mediocre at best and the administration generally hasn't really accomplished anything in the last five years. Infrastructure and education are in a bad state too. | ||
TheNewEra
Germany3128 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
cant see merkel losing in september now, unless we get hit by some kind of freak event | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
Kurz has put forward a list of demands towards his conservative party for a very strict organization behind him with things like total control over the delegate list, with the name ÖVP being replaced with his own on the ballot, so that he would not suffer the same fate as his successors who used to become lame ducks through the various interests of various party wings. Today the succession has been officially realised with a ton of media coverage all week long. Seems like the party will be on a very hardline course to the right (although he hasn't put forward any concrete economic plans, Kurz has been very happy about Macron's plans, although supporting Fillion and calling Hollande's government an example of "pure socialism") and they'll have a big shot at becoming the strongest party after the election with the popular youngster finally taking over. The collapse of the government by the conservatives has basically been in the air for half a year or longer, with Kurz openly being in support of elections before Austria will take the EU chairmanship and the ÖVP governors wanting an election before early 2018 so that their countries elections wouldn't coincide with the general election, so that voters wouldn't punish the ÖVP for the current government. However this moment was probably still a bit faster than they'd have liked it. Election date has yet to be decided, but with the coalition down, SPÖ chancellor Christian Kern might try to realize some of his policies through open parliamentarism until that day. The opposition under leadership of the populist FPÖ, so Greens, NEOS (ALDE), Team Stronach (right-wing populists, formerly under the rule of the oligarch Frank Stronach) and said populists will have a big say in the election date, given that SPÖ probably won't accept on ÖVP's terms. And of course, all of this is happening in a way that "sadly" will turn of the Eurofighter investigation that is inspecting the - probably heavily corrupted - ÖVP-induced purchase of fighter jets from 10-years ago. For the second time (last time the ÖVP urging the social-democrats to turn it off, or they'd leave the coalition back then). The conservatives are surely very sad about it.  | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 15 2017 03:17 LegalLord wrote: Didn't really look like anyone but Merkel being a real possibility. Just fake hype. don't think so, SPD was really ahead of CDU for some weeks when Schulz was chosen as their candidate. It just didn't stick around and he's dropping in favorability right now. I'd personally say there wasn't any strong indication one way or the other and both could have happened: SPD staying that strong or it just being a fleeting strong perioid On May 15 2017 00:47 mustaju wrote: What happened with the FDP in popularity rating? When I asked a political scientist in september last year, they told me they thought the FDP was close to dead. German articles as a response in PM's would be fine, too. The FDP was pretty much dead some time ago. If I had to say I'd guess Semptember last year was already part of them getting back into politics but not too surprising. They became REALLY unpopular while they were together in a coalition with the CDU on federal level (that would be 2009-2013 iirc?) for catering only to their voterbase and doing nothing else. Ever since they pretty much dropped out of politics. Their new head of the party Christian Lindner seems to be doing work to get them back in the game over the last year or so. Also it's "only" a 4 percent gain for them. It's still massive no question, but I think NRW was a fairly strong state for them to begin with. They got 8.6% in 2012 (de.wikipedia.org) over there and went up to 12.6% now. Again, certainly a big gain but you have to compare those 8.6% in NRW 2012 with the 4.8% on the federal level they had during the same time imo. A bit besides the point but I personally find it kind of hilarious that CDU+FDP are getting to exactly 100 seats out of 199 in NRW. German precision indeed  | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
While at the same time being rather coarse and at times too upfront to actually gain anything but a defensive answer. I felt a distinctly different vibe from yesterday's post election panels. Less of giving the politicians a platform to spout their usual bla bla we lost or bla bla we won, potshot here, potshot there. Rather like: ok, you won but wtf are you gonna do with the chance? Please be specific and answer my question, stop evading... And you, you lost, why, is Schultz even gonna make it now that he lost thrice? Is the SPD done for good? | ||
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TheNewEra
Germany3128 Posts
On May 15 2017 17:46 Artisreal wrote: Did anyone else have the feeling that the moderation / interview questions in the aftermath of the vote were unusually critic / challenging for all parties involved? While at the same time being rather coarse and at times too upfront to actually gain anything but a defensive answer. I felt a distinctly different vibe from yesterday's post election panels. Less of giving the politicians a platform to spout their usual bla bla we lost or bla bla we won, potshot here, potshot there. Rather like: ok, you won but wtf are you gonna do with the chance? Please be specific and answer my question, stop evading... And you, you lost, why, is Schultz even gonna make it now that he lost thrice? Is the SPD done for good? Yeah I felt the same. Sometimes too harsch but definitely better than the other times when everyone could use prewritten answers because of generic questions. | ||
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Clonester
Germany2808 Posts
To the election: Here in NRW it was in the air for 2-3 weeks, that the SPD would lose a giant amount of voters. The new way of CDU campaigning works also really well, instead of stopping the other parties voters to got to the election, they now try to encourage their own voters to come to the elections. For Schulz, he never had a chance, a core part of SPD voters see him not as a German but as a Brussler politician and these guys are going to vote AfD or CDU. The gains in other parts of the electorate are not enough to gain a majority under these conditions. | ||
zatic
Zurich15361 Posts
On May 15 2017 17:46 Artisreal wrote: Did anyone else have the feeling that the moderation / interview questions in the aftermath of the vote were unusually critic / challenging for all parties involved? While at the same time being rather coarse and at times too upfront to actually gain anything but a defensive answer. I felt a distinctly different vibe from yesterday's post election panels. Less of giving the politicians a platform to spout their usual bla bla we lost or bla bla we won, potshot here, potshot there. Rather like: ok, you won but wtf are you gonna do with the chance? Please be specific and answer my question, stop evading... And you, you lost, why, is Schultz even gonna make it now that he lost thrice? Is the SPD done for good? I fail to see how this is a bad thing in any way. Keep them honest from day one, there is enough fluff out there. I am very happy that our media overall is doing a decent job. They were getting soft during the boring mid-phase of Merkel reign, it's only good if they show teeth again. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
I do appreciate them taking a firmer stance on holding everyone to their agenda and putting pressure on the parties' members to further differenciate themselves from each other and put them down on their actual policies. It just suprised me to be frank. And it felt unpolished. Unpolished is not what I'd expect from Tina Hassel. Imo she can do alot better than yesterday might suggest. On an unrelated note, I'd really appreciate if they had a kill switch for the microphones if one of the interviewees talks too much or interrupts. | ||
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Elizar
Germany431 Posts
As Turkey again and again refuses to let members of the german parliament visit the 260 soldiers stationed in Incirlik (without providing any reason) we now hear for the first time, that the german government considers leaving that military base. The government is now looking for an alternative. The german government hopes that by considering that step alone the turkish stance about the visits of german members of parliament changes. german source: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/tuerkei-untersagt-bundestagsabgeordneten-incirlik-besuch-a-1147719.html NATO-partners? Ridiculous ... I assume the turkish government wants some kind of revenge for Germany giving asylum to some of the turkish soldiers that fled after the attempted coup. | ||
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Yurie
12021 Posts
On May 15 2017 18:49 Artisreal wrote: I diddn't say it was bad, did I? Well, rereading my part, I can understand your sentiment. I do appreciate them taking a firmer stance on holding everyone to their agenda and putting pressure on the parties' members to further differenciate themselves from each other and put them down on their actual policies. It just suprised me to be frank. And it felt unpolished. Unpolished is not what I'd expect from Tina Hassel. Imo she can do alot better than yesterday might suggest. On an unrelated note, I'd really appreciate if they had a kill switch for the microphones if one of the interviewees talks too much or interrupts. They can kill the mics from the sound board. That doesn't help though since they are still talking to the people that are near them and thus not giving opportunities for them to talk. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
Edouard Philippe's name had circulated for days in the press, so no surprise there. He's the mayor of a fairly big city, Le Havre (172k inhabitants). He's a member of the mainstream right party, close to Juppé; he was in his campaign for the primary. Macron chose a right-wing Prime minister to put further pressure on the right. Just like the PS exploded, he aims at dismantling LR and rally the moderate wing to him. Edit—The rest of the government should follow tomorrow. | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On May 15 2017 22:05 TheDwf wrote: King Macron just named his Prime minister: Edouard Philippe, mostly a clone coming from the same prestigious schools (Sciences-PO, ENA). He's some centre-right guy; should also note that he had begun his career... in the PS, liberal wing; further proof, if needed, of the almost complete indifferentiation between center-left and center-right politicians, who mostly choose their party out of opportunism and career prospects. Edouard Philippe's name had circulated for days in the press, so no surprise there. He's the mayor of a fairly big city, Le Havre (172k inhabitants). He's a member of the mainstream right party, close to Juppé; he was in his campaign for the primary. Macron chose a right-wing Prime minister to put further pressure on the right. Just like the PS exploded, he aims at dismantling LR and rally the moderate wing to him. Edit—The rest of the government should follow tomorrow. Well I mean, they're centrists, of course there's little difference between centre-right and centre-left. And since there isn't (well, wasn't, if Macron succeeds in his deeds) a major centrist party, of course they're going to chose depending on career opportunity. LREM is precisely aimed at creating a big centrist party, to force non-centrist parts of the left and right to join the extremes. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On May 15 2017 23:23 OtherWorld wrote: Well I mean, they're centrists, of course there's little difference between centre-right and centre-left. Naturally, but so far those coming from the PS pretended to be “socialists” from the “left”. I am glad that the alternation comedy has finally come to an end: at last the TINA bloc materializes right in front of us, without the smokescreen and the superficial war of the labels. Macron's mandate will be symbolically priceless for us, the great clarification which should have been done since the 80's is about to happen. Fauxcialists will be separated from socialists. If karma exists, what remains of the incoherent, sniveling social-democrats will be wiped as well. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5298 Posts
what is that scam men?. | ||
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