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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 787

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
April 20 2017 20:22 GMT
#15721
On April 21 2017 05:20 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:17 Gorsameth wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:15 TheDwf wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
LePen going to win now pretty much.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/961Economist/status/855145247415963648

Yes, she's totally going to win 5 millions of extra votes now! We don't even know what happened, seriously what's the point of this kind of reaction?

Because these kinds of attacks tend to stir nationalistic feelings. Its pretty much a known fact by now.

And how do you know it's a terrorist attack? There are jewelry shops around there, could be linked to some armed robbery for all we know. We don't know yet.

Even if it's a terrorist attack, one policeman killed won't send tons of voters who already don't want to vote for Le Pen into her arms.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22239 Posts
April 20 2017 20:24 GMT
#15722
On April 21 2017 05:20 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:17 Gorsameth wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:15 TheDwf wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
LePen going to win now pretty much.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/961Economist/status/855145247415963648

Yes, she's totally going to win 5 millions of extra votes now! We don't even know what happened, seriously what's the point of this kind of reaction?

Because these kinds of attacks tend to stir nationalistic feelings. Its pretty much a known fact by now.

And how do you know it's a terrorist attack? There are jewelry shops around there, could be linked to some armed robbery for all we know. We don't know yet.

It doesnt matter what the facts say. it matters how people react and people react strongest to the first news they see.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Makro
Profile Joined March 2011
France16890 Posts
April 20 2017 20:25 GMT
#15723
one sure thing is that the tourism's attractivity of paris is gonna go down way faster than it is already doing, and if it can finally force the minister of tourism to focus on 90% of the rest of the country for once, that would be a net positive
Matthew 5:10 "Blessed are those who are persecuted because of shitposting, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven".
TL+ Member
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
April 20 2017 20:25 GMT
#15724
On April 21 2017 05:19 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:15 TheDwf wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
LePen going to win now pretty much.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/961Economist/status/855145247415963648

Yes, she's totally going to win 5 millions of extra votes now! We don't even know what happened, seriously what's the point of this kind of reaction?

Fear, mostly. The French elections have most of the world in a panic in light of the recent past.

Fairly sure people are blasé now, not a week goes by without hearing about terrorist attacks here or abroad in some way, one dead isn't enough to trigger significant moves at this point. I hope nothing happens on the voting day though, don't know what would be done then...
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
April 20 2017 20:28 GMT
#15725
On April 21 2017 05:25 Makro wrote:
one sure thing is that the tourism's attractivity of paris is gonna go down way faster than it is already doing, and if it can finally force the minister of tourism to focus on 90% of the rest of the country for once, that would be a net positive

Especially since a good chunk of the countryside is a touristic goldmine : local alcohols, chateaux, military history...
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
Makro
Profile Joined March 2011
France16890 Posts
April 20 2017 20:30 GMT
#15726
On April 21 2017 05:28 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:25 Makro wrote:
one sure thing is that the tourism's attractivity of paris is gonna go down way faster than it is already doing, and if it can finally force the minister of tourism to focus on 90% of the rest of the country for once, that would be a net positive

Especially since a good chunk of the countryside is a touristic goldmine : local alcohols, chateaux, military history...

that's, specially the south which is totally underrated

many area lack of founding when it comes to tourism (normandy for example) because it's not paris
Matthew 5:10 "Blessed are those who are persecuted because of shitposting, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven".
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 20 2017 20:33 GMT
#15727
On April 21 2017 05:25 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:19 LegalLord wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:15 TheDwf wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
LePen going to win now pretty much.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/961Economist/status/855145247415963648

Yes, she's totally going to win 5 millions of extra votes now! We don't even know what happened, seriously what's the point of this kind of reaction?

Fear, mostly. The French elections have most of the world in a panic in light of the recent past.

Fairly sure people are blasé now, not a week goes by without hearing about terrorist attacks here or abroad in some way, one dead isn't enough to trigger significant moves at this point. I hope nothing happens on the voting day though, don't know what would be done then...

Paris has had more terrorism than most, so that perhaps is true. But the fact that populists are doing scarily well over 2016 has people on edge. Trump may have won because of one or two nasty October surprises, Brexit won in an upset, and people abroad are scared that this might be what tips it for Le Pen.

I'm not sure about that. I don't speak French so I can't really gauge that side of the world at all. Statistically, it looks questionable, if feasible. I would neither call it likely nor out of the range of reasonable possibility.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
April 20 2017 20:38 GMT
#15728
On April 21 2017 05:28 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:25 Makro wrote:
one sure thing is that the tourism's attractivity of paris is gonna go down way faster than it is already doing, and if it can finally force the minister of tourism to focus on 90% of the rest of the country for once, that would be a net positive

Especially since a good chunk of the countryside is a touristic goldmine : local alcohols, chateaux, military history...

As long as it's properly advertised. For instance:

Visit the castle of the most famous crooked French politician!

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
April 20 2017 20:39 GMT
#15729
On April 21 2017 04:58 LegalLord wrote:
Ultimately religious beliefs should be respected and supported, but they have no place establishing any form of practices which undermine the principles upon which the government is founded. The burqini ban seems pointless in that regard, but stopping people from accessing important medical procedures cuz religion or bilking them for all their money because Xenu wills it are all fair game for government crackdowns. But religion matters to people and denying people the right to practice in general is going to look a lot like oppression.


I agree, but explicitly rejecting 'wordly' education and withholding contact to society crosses that line too, right? I think mandatory public education is a really good thing. Especially here in Germany it always seem to be the nutty people that are opposing it.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28786 Posts
April 20 2017 20:43 GMT
#15730
Macron vs Le Pen generally looks like a 65-35 situation. I understand polls are not completely accurate and that 2016 showed that nobody should try to predict anything but at the same time, I don't understand how that kind of advantage can be overcome.
Moderator
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9296 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-20 20:44:14
April 20 2017 20:43 GMT
#15731
Ask Clinton

jk Trump had much more time and easier environment
You're now breathing manually
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-20 20:51:43
April 20 2017 20:47 GMT
#15732
It is blatantly terrorism, and even the police have said all indicators point to that. Possible it's not Islamic terrorism, but it's terrorism. Second gunman is still on the loose and a second policeman is dead.

Edit: Second policeman is not dead. Two seriously injured.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
April 20 2017 20:48 GMT
#15733
On April 21 2017 05:39 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 04:58 LegalLord wrote:
Ultimately religious beliefs should be respected and supported, but they have no place establishing any form of practices which undermine the principles upon which the government is founded. The burqini ban seems pointless in that regard, but stopping people from accessing important medical procedures cuz religion or bilking them for all their money because Xenu wills it are all fair game for government crackdowns. But religion matters to people and denying people the right to practice in general is going to look a lot like oppression.


I agree, but explicitly rejecting 'wordly' education and withholding contact to society crosses that line too, right? I think mandatory public education is a really good thing. Especially here in Germany it always seem to be the nutty people that are opposing it.


Calling people nutty when they can justify their opinion with religion is a crime in Austria. Just saying...
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 20 2017 20:49 GMT
#15734
NPR had a story a while ago that the EU as a whole spends less on polling in general, but a considerable amount. But considering the last election, it is hard to say if that that means anything.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28786 Posts
April 20 2017 20:50 GMT
#15735
Clinton vs Trump polls fluctuated wildly and there were points where he was ahead, especially in outlier polls. Looking at this, 58 vs 42 is the best Le Pen has done in any poll, but she's also been down 29 vs 71. Average looks like it's in the 65-35 range.. Surely has to be too much? :p
Moderator
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 20 2017 20:54 GMT
#15736
On April 21 2017 05:25 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:19 LegalLord wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:15 TheDwf wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
LePen going to win now pretty much.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/961Economist/status/855145247415963648

Yes, she's totally going to win 5 millions of extra votes now! We don't even know what happened, seriously what's the point of this kind of reaction?

Fear, mostly. The French elections have most of the world in a panic in light of the recent past.

Fairly sure people are blasé now, not a week goes by without hearing about terrorist attacks here or abroad in some way, one dead isn't enough to trigger significant moves at this point. I hope nothing happens on the voting day though, don't know what would be done then...

The interchange between aspects of "terrorist attacks are so rare, why care about something that you stand an insignificant chance of dying from?" and "people are blasé now, not a week goes by without hearing about terrorist attacks here or abroad in some way" is one aspect of divided opinion. Too rare and not rare enough.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 20 2017 20:54 GMT
#15737
On April 21 2017 05:39 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 04:58 LegalLord wrote:
Ultimately religious beliefs should be respected and supported, but they have no place establishing any form of practices which undermine the principles upon which the government is founded. The burqini ban seems pointless in that regard, but stopping people from accessing important medical procedures cuz religion or bilking them for all their money because Xenu wills it are all fair game for government crackdowns. But religion matters to people and denying people the right to practice in general is going to look a lot like oppression.


I agree, but explicitly rejecting 'wordly' education and withholding contact to society crosses that line too, right? I think mandatory public education is a really good thing. Especially here in Germany it always seem to be the nutty people that are opposing it.

That's a tough one. Is it fair for people to do that just because they say fuck school cuz skoolz 4 foolz and they don't like society none too much? For religious reasons, the answer should be along the same lines and I think that would just depend on the specific country in question. In the US, it would be quite clearly acceptable to do that. In countries with a much more stringent approach to religious practice, not so much. Though the US has a disproportionate share of religious crazies so I'm not sure that such a great job is being done on that front...
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
April 20 2017 20:59 GMT
#15738
On April 21 2017 05:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Clinton vs Trump polls fluctuated wildly and there were points where he was ahead, especially in outlier polls. Looking at this, 58 vs 42 is the best Le Pen has done in any poll, but she's also been down 29 vs 71. Average looks like it's in the 65-35 range.. Surely has to be too much? :p

Well for one you presume Macron. That's not really clear. Against Fillon or Melenchon the win is more likely - especially because there is less polling data. And there's a lot of undecideds. In hindsight we can say that Clinton < Trump was a very real possibility - I even wrote a gigantic treatise on it - but we also had a prevailing "Trump has to win 7 out of 6 competitive states" vibe. And then things rapidly changed course.

I don't think Le Pen will win. But I see multiple possible paths to victory for her. I wouldn't just dismiss her cuz Macron.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
April 20 2017 21:06 GMT
#15739
On April 20 2017 23:29 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 20 2017 23:27 Mohdoo wrote:
Still terrified Le Pen is gonna win

Why do you care that much? Do you live in France?


The world is basically one giant being at this point. Pretending relevance stops at a border is silly. The EU is an enormous deal and the strength of the EU is the strength of the world. Just like is also the case for the US, China, etc. When one does shitty, everyone suffers.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28786 Posts
April 20 2017 21:21 GMT
#15740
On April 21 2017 05:54 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2017 05:25 TheDwf wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:19 LegalLord wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:15 TheDwf wrote:
On April 21 2017 05:06 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
LePen going to win now pretty much.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/961Economist/status/855145247415963648

Yes, she's totally going to win 5 millions of extra votes now! We don't even know what happened, seriously what's the point of this kind of reaction?

Fear, mostly. The French elections have most of the world in a panic in light of the recent past.

Fairly sure people are blasé now, not a week goes by without hearing about terrorist attacks here or abroad in some way, one dead isn't enough to trigger significant moves at this point. I hope nothing happens on the voting day though, don't know what would be done then...

The interchange between aspects of "terrorist attacks are so rare, why care about something that you stand an insignificant chance of dying from?" and "people are blasé now, not a week goes by without hearing about terrorist attacks here or abroad in some way" is one aspect of divided opinion. Too rare and not rare enough.


deaths in traffic are just like that? I don't know anybody who worries particularly about dying in a car accident, yet even in Norway, a country with 5 million inhabitants and one of the lowest rates of fatal car accidents in the world, experience a couple per week.

Obviously terrorist attacks are different in the sense that traffic accidents are considered an unfortunate and inevitable consequence of the massive advantage of being able to quickly travel places by car, while it's much harder to find the positive side of terrorist attacks. But even for something that takes 100+ times as many lives as terrorist attacks, it's still a) something you stand an insignificant chance of dying from and b) something you don't care about when it happens. You'll still hear about a massive car crash killing 60 people, but nobody really cares if two people died.
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