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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On March 25 2017 05:40 bardtown wrote:
The entire economy is affected by the currency... Nothing is at an appropriate level. Not interest, not inflation, not exchange rates. They cannot compete, they cannot grow, they cannot get out of debt. If you think there is no link between a massively overvalued currency and debt in Italy/Greece then you know essentially nothing about economics.
THere's certainly a link but the link is caused by bad policy. In a situation where monetary policy is too loose (as it was for Spain, Greece, Portugal) you can counteract the increased lending by private actors by reducing the lending of public actors (the government). To its credit Spain did do this to a large extent but Greece and Portugal did not.
Long term a deficit on the current account doesn't have to result in larger debt. It all depends on how the capital inflows are spent. In these countries it largely went to wage increases which outpaced productivity increases.
As the trading partners of Greece, Spain and Portugal had a better control over their unit labour cost increases, the real effective exchange rate (REER) based on unit labour costs increased – according to data from the European Commission – in Spain by 15%, in Portugal by 10% and in Greece by 8% in 1999-2007.
In Spain, total gross savings (relative to GDP) remained fairly constant between 1999 and 2007, while the ratio of total gross investment increased substantially, but went partially into a real estate build-up of questionable sustainability.
In contrast, in Greece and Portugal the savings ratio declined significantly between 1999 and 2007 (and further up to 2009)
and ended up at rather low levels below 10% of GDP, particularly in Greece. At the same time, the investment ratio stagnated
in Greece relative to GDP and even declined substantially in Portugal.
What happened in these countries is instead of using capital inflows on productive investment and increasing productivity (and as a consequence being able to increase wages while not reducing competitiveness) they used it on increased consumption instead. This increase in productivity could've reduced the current account deficit in the long term too.
So while there is a link between the increase in debt in these countries and the euro it's due to earlier (wrong) policy
archive.intereconomics.eu
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Erdogan says Turkey may hold referendum on EU accession bid
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey may hold a second referendum on whether to continue with European Union accession talks following a planned vote on April 16 that could give him sweeping new powers.
"Right now we are holding a referendum on April 16 and after that we could choose to do a second one on the (EU) accession talks and we would abide by whatever our people would say there," Erdogan told a forum in the southern city of Antalya.
Turkey began EU accession talks in 2005 but they have moved very slowly due to disagreements over Cyprus, human rights and other issues. Relations between Ankara and Brussels have become particularly strained in recent months.
source: www.reuters.com
this should be good. Really had to laugh out for a second once I saw that
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On March 26 2017 02:58 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +Erdogan says Turkey may hold referendum on EU accession bid
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey may hold a second referendum on whether to continue with European Union accession talks following a planned vote on April 16 that could give him sweeping new powers.
"Right now we are holding a referendum on April 16 and after that we could choose to do a second one on the (EU) accession talks and we would abide by whatever our people would say there," Erdogan told a forum in the southern city of Antalya.
Turkey began EU accession talks in 2005 but they have moved very slowly due to disagreements over Cyprus, human rights and other issues. Relations between Ankara and Brussels have become particularly strained in recent months. source: www.reuters.comthis should be good. Really had to laugh out for a second once I saw that
Is this some wierd PR stunt for people who oppose him?
Because it makes no sense at all. Erdogan killed the EU talks with his actions. A vote for Accession is a vote against Erdogan.
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On March 26 2017 02:45 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2017 05:40 bardtown wrote:
The entire economy is affected by the currency... Nothing is at an appropriate level. Not interest, not inflation, not exchange rates. They cannot compete, they cannot grow, they cannot get out of debt. If you think there is no link between a massively overvalued currency and debt in Italy/Greece then you know essentially nothing about economics. THere's certainly a link but the link is caused by bad policy. In a situation where monetary policy is too loose (as it was for Spain, Greece, Portugal) you can counteract the increased lending by private actors by reducing the lending of public actors (the government). To its credit Spain did do this to a large extent but Greece and Portugal did not. Long term a deficit on the current account doesn't have to result in larger debt. It all depends on how the capital inflows are spent. In these countries it largely went to wage increases which outpaced productivity increases. Show nested quote +As the trading partners of Greece, Spain and Portugal had a better control over their unit labour cost increases, the real effective exchange rate (REER) based on unit labour costs increased – according to data from the European Commission – in Spain by 15%, in Portugal by 10% and in Greece by 8% in 1999-2007. Show nested quote +In Spain, total gross savings (relative to GDP) remained fairly constant between 1999 and 2007, while the ratio of total gross investment increased substantially, but went partially into a real estate build-up of questionable sustainability.
In contrast, in Greece and Portugal the savings ratio declined significantly between 1999 and 2007 (and further up to 2009)
and ended up at rather low levels below 10% of GDP, particularly in Greece. At the same time, the investment ratio stagnated
in Greece relative to GDP and even declined substantially in Portugal. What happened in these countries is instead of using capital inflows on productive investment and increasing productivity (and as a consequence being able to increase wages while not reducing competitiveness) they used it on increased consumption instead. This increase in productivity could've reduced the current account deficit in the long term too. So while there is a link between the increase in debt in these countries and the euro it's due to earlier (wrong) policy archive.intereconomics.eu
I am definitely not denying the role of poor management/corruption in causing economic difficulties for some of those countries. I agree with what you're pointing out. What I'm saying is that their inability to adapt their monetary policy to suit their circumstances has them trapped, and that if devaluation had been an option they would have come out the other side of this crisis in better shape. And frankly, they would not have been able to make all those mistakes if they weren't in the euro in the first place. Greece in particular was living entirely beyond its means.
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On March 26 2017 02:58 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +Erdogan says Turkey may hold referendum on EU accession bid
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey may hold a second referendum on whether to continue with European Union accession talks following a planned vote on April 16 that could give him sweeping new powers.
"Right now we are holding a referendum on April 16 and after that we could choose to do a second one on the (EU) accession talks and we would abide by whatever our people would say there," Erdogan told a forum in the southern city of Antalya.
Turkey began EU accession talks in 2005 but they have moved very slowly due to disagreements over Cyprus, human rights and other issues. Relations between Ankara and Brussels have become particularly strained in recent months. source: www.reuters.comthis should be good. Really had to laugh out for a second once I saw that
Erdogan is a gem. Of course the point is moot in that the even the EU isn't stupid enough to take Turkey seriously (and that's a VERY low threshold), and Turkey under Erdogan has always teetered from one idiocy to the next. But there's some good schadenfreude in watching this play out in a place where the consequences are less consequential than with our own US clown-in-chief.
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Bardtown someone posted earlier favorability polls on the Euro. If I recall, the Euro was particularly popular in Portugal and Greece, and in 2010-2013 we were beaten to death with people arguing that if we left the Euro we could devalue and things wouldn't be so bad.
So given all of that, why do you think the Euro is popular here and in Greece?
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On March 26 2017 03:53 warding wrote:
Bardtown someone posted earlier favorability polls on the Euro. If I recall, the Euro was particularly popular in Portugal and Greece, and in 2010-2013 we were beaten to death with people arguing that if we left the Euro we could devalue and things wouldn't be so bad.
So given all of that, why do you think the Euro is popular here and in Greece?
I would need to see the study. I could easily point to Italy becoming increasingly anti euro, though. Same applies to most of the countries that have managed to retain their own currencies, as far as I can tell. So maybe the general feeling is that pulling out would cause more harm than good, potentially destabilising the entire continent, but from the outside there's nobody particularly keen to get in.
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On March 26 2017 03:04 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2017 02:58 Toadesstern wrote:Erdogan says Turkey may hold referendum on EU accession bid
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey may hold a second referendum on whether to continue with European Union accession talks following a planned vote on April 16 that could give him sweeping new powers.
"Right now we are holding a referendum on April 16 and after that we could choose to do a second one on the (EU) accession talks and we would abide by whatever our people would say there," Erdogan told a forum in the southern city of Antalya.
Turkey began EU accession talks in 2005 but they have moved very slowly due to disagreements over Cyprus, human rights and other issues. Relations between Ankara and Brussels have become particularly strained in recent months. source: www.reuters.comthis should be good. Really had to laugh out for a second once I saw that Is this some wierd PR stunt for people who oppose him? Because it makes no sense at all. Erdogan killed the EU talks with his actions. A vote for Accession is a vote against Erdogan.
I can only imagine that he thinks people don't like the EU anymore and will vote against EU and thus he wants this... for some reason... like "ha, I have a mandate to hate on the EU" ?
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On March 26 2017 05:23 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2017 03:04 Gorsameth wrote:On March 26 2017 02:58 Toadesstern wrote:Erdogan says Turkey may hold referendum on EU accession bid
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey may hold a second referendum on whether to continue with European Union accession talks following a planned vote on April 16 that could give him sweeping new powers.
"Right now we are holding a referendum on April 16 and after that we could choose to do a second one on the (EU) accession talks and we would abide by whatever our people would say there," Erdogan told a forum in the southern city of Antalya.
Turkey began EU accession talks in 2005 but they have moved very slowly due to disagreements over Cyprus, human rights and other issues. Relations between Ankara and Brussels have become particularly strained in recent months. source: www.reuters.comthis should be good. Really had to laugh out for a second once I saw that Is this some wierd PR stunt for people who oppose him? Because it makes no sense at all. Erdogan killed the EU talks with his actions. A vote for Accession is a vote against Erdogan. I can only imagine that he thinks people don't like the EU anymore and will vote against EU and thus he wants this... for some reason... like "ha, I have a mandate to hate on the EU" ?
Would be interesting to see polls on what the Turks actually think. They're not necessarily in favour of what he wants from the other referendum, so they might not be on his side for this either. Could it result in a Ukraine style stand off?
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On March 26 2017 05:23 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2017 03:04 Gorsameth wrote:On March 26 2017 02:58 Toadesstern wrote:Erdogan says Turkey may hold referendum on EU accession bid
President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey may hold a second referendum on whether to continue with European Union accession talks following a planned vote on April 16 that could give him sweeping new powers.
"Right now we are holding a referendum on April 16 and after that we could choose to do a second one on the (EU) accession talks and we would abide by whatever our people would say there," Erdogan told a forum in the southern city of Antalya.
Turkey began EU accession talks in 2005 but they have moved very slowly due to disagreements over Cyprus, human rights and other issues. Relations between Ankara and Brussels have become particularly strained in recent months. source: www.reuters.comthis should be good. Really had to laugh out for a second once I saw that Is this some wierd PR stunt for people who oppose him? Because it makes no sense at all. Erdogan killed the EU talks with his actions. A vote for Accession is a vote against Erdogan. I can only imagine that he thinks people don't like the EU anymore and will vote against EU and thus he wants this... for some reason... like "ha, I have a mandate to hate on the EU" ?
The only thing I can think of is a parallel to the Brexit referendum. "Vote for me in the election (which you don't want to do) and I will give you a referendum (which you do want)".
But it doesn't hold up for this because if A happens (Erdogan gets more power) B is never happening (Turkey joining the EU).
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Considering the amount of the PKK rallies allowed in Europe, don't think Turkish people will want to be part of the EU. Turkey will probably acquire/want a British model and I personally as well will be voting against EU. You guys can have your fun with Kurds all the way you want.
And frankly, it's almost stupid to say Erdogan's dictatorship or press freedom, or so called oppression against Kurds harmed EU talks. Never been the case. There was none of these problems 5 years ago, media was free, was a cease-fire between state and the Pkk and Erdogan was a "model" politician to other İslamic countries, yet the EU talks was still failing.
Turkey won't be a part of the EU unless it gives up Cyprus completely, which is a politic demand by EU and both sides are wrong in terms of how they handle the process and their demands. Turkey being a Muslim nation will be problem, always. Armenian genocide will be always a matter as if there's something Turkey could do apart from saying sorry. There's still a huge gap between mindset of a Turkish and a EU citizen, both sides deeply regard each other as threat to their existence etc etc. It would be ideal to join EU in a parallel reality where UK does not campaign a good portion of her Brexit over racism against Turks and Austria welcoming us.
Let Turks be Turks and Europe be Europe. More fun. We still have our Nato to guarantee that we won't be killing each other anyways.
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Well, if Turkey started with admitting the Armenian genocide happened and apologize, that would be a pretty huge deal...
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Turkey is content to be pissy about it every time a government makes official mention of the Armenian Genocide.
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On March 26 2017 15:25 Acrofales wrote:
Well, if Turkey started with admitting the Armenian genocide happened and apologize, that would be a pretty huge deal...
There was a Turkish official on the TV years ago from a ministry I can't recall now, he was saying "when you google genocides, you only see recognized Nazi, Soviet, Ottoman ones but none of the American, British, French ones as a part of a history whitewashing campaign" and then he stressed around 5 millions of Turks have been massacred systematically with a politic goal on Balkans, which we hear nothing about them from the same EU countries that push Turkey over the Armenian genocide.I think this is the hidden Turkish motive. Her imperial past will always, naturally, clash with the European imperial past on history. And both sides will keep on believing their stories.
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On March 26 2017 16:11 lastpuritan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2017 15:25 Acrofales wrote:
Well, if Turkey started with admitting the Armenian genocide happened and apologize, that would be a pretty huge deal... There was a Turkish official on the TV years ago from a ministry I can't recall now, he was saying "when you google genocides, you only see recognized Nazi, Soviet, Ottoman ones but none of the American, British, French ones as a part of a history whitewashing campaign" and then he stressed around 5 millions of Turks have been massacred systematically with a politic goal on Balkans, which we hear nothing about them from the same EU countries that push Turkey over the Armenian genocide.I think this is the hidden Turkish motive. Her imperial past will always, naturally, clash with the European imperial past on history. And both sides will keep on believing their stories.
Or you could simply google "Genocides in history" YOURSELF. Do it. I just did it. Guess what, there are the things mentioned your Turkish official didn´t (want?) to see.
Yes, you have to read it aloud yourself, to actually hear it, but relying on politicians for complete information is naive.
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When the US starts cutting diplomatic ties for talking about Native American genocides or you get kicked out of Belgium for mentioning the Congo, then the Turks will start to have a point.
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On March 26 2017 14:57 lastpuritan wrote:
Considering the amount of the PKK rallies allowed in Europe, don't think Turkish people will want to be part of the EU. Turkey will probably acquire/want a British model and I personally as well will be voting against EU. You guys can have your fun with Kurds all the way you want.
And frankly, it's almost stupid to say Erdogan's dictatorship or press freedom, or so called oppression against Kurds harmed EU talks. Never been the case. There was none of these problems 5 years ago, media was free, was a cease-fire between state and the Pkk and Erdogan was a "model" politician to other İslamic countries, yet the EU talks was still failing.
Turkey won't be a part of the EU unless it gives up Cyprus completely, which is a politic demand by EU and both sides are wrong in terms of how they handle the process and their demands. Turkey being a Muslim nation will be problem, always. Armenian genocide will be always a matter as if there's something Turkey could do apart from saying sorry. There's still a huge gap between mindset of a Turkish and a EU citizen, both sides deeply regard each other as threat to their existence etc etc. It would be ideal to join EU in a parallel reality where UK does not campaign a good portion of her Brexit over racism against Turks and Austria welcoming us.
Let Turks be Turks and Europe be Europe. More fun. We still have our Nato to guarantee that we won't be killing each other anyways.
Heard it here first, folks. Turkey did nothing wrong.
It's not racism to not want free movement between the UK and Turkey. Turkey is a relatively poor country and Turks in the rest of the EU have not integrated at all.
Deal with your problems rather than blaming them on everyone else and playing the victim.
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lastpuritan is one of those people who thinks the Armenian Genocide didn't really happen and is a plot against Turkey, so yeah.....
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come on men, what's wrong with you?; Erdogan can't officially stop the EU accession talks without the express approval of turkish citizens.
his rhetoric aside, he needs that formal go ahead from the turks.
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On March 26 2017 22:26 xM(Z wrote:
come on men, what's wrong with you?; Erdogan can't officially stop the EU accession talks without the express approval of turkish citizens.
his rhetoric aside, he needs that formal go ahead from the turks.
I wish we would bring Turkey in with the conditions of approving the European Court of Justice decisions and the standard EU laws and regulations agreed upon previously (which not all have ratified yet). Either they have to ignore the court, the rules or leave again to keep current behaviours. Showing he doesn't want to join on the same conditions as other countries.
That looks like the best solution for me since I am pro expanding the EU. Destabilising a burgeoning dictatorship on the borders at the same time.
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EPT
