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On March 25 2017 03:15 warding wrote:
"I am an internationalist and pro European integration even though I know it's a neoliberal shithole at the moment"
A neoliberal shithole whose countries have the highest quality of life and human development indexes in History.
"Funfact: Russian army can devour half of the EU before American help wins the war. That's also a smart attempt to evade nukes for the sake of EU."
Yeah the campaign in the Ukraine really shows how mighty the Russian army is. I'm also not sure about your usage of the word 'fact'.
The Anglosphere/Scandinavia top all those indices, not the EU. And the Russian army is afk on the Ukraine border. They're only waiting for an excuse, following which they would take half of Ukraine in a matter of days.
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On March 25 2017 03:25 a_flayer wrote:
Last I checked, Russia spends like 80 billion/year on their army. They reduced this by something like 20% for this year (admittedly, partially due to sanctions, I'm sure) -- at least, that's what they told me on the propaganda channel backed by the KGB-thug Vladimir Putin. The EU spends like 200 billion/year combined. I'm not particularly worried about the Russians, to be honest. Except for the nuclear weapons, but I'm just as worried about the Russian nuclear weapons as I am about the American ones.
If you want a serious comparison adjust it for purchasing power, especially wages. The absolute numbers are obviously meaningless as a Euro in Russia gets you much more than a Euro in Germany, and Russia produces much of it's military equipment domestically.
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I'm not american but I'm also troubled by Russia's attempt at influencing other countries. The West enjoys unparalleled living standards that are the result of having constructed democratic and liberal institutions that protect civil rights and allow for a plurality of interests, people and cultures to coexist. The troubles of the 20th century should have taught everyone in the West about the value of our democratic institutions and the peril of autocracies.
Putin is an autocrat and his political survival is based on a set of tactics that destroy political opposition and the public's thirst for democracies. Those tactics include things like destroying the notion of truth and facts in societies. Those same tactics are today applied by Trump and the 'real fake news' - the true purpose of the alternative reality these agents create is to make the public not know what to believe anymore and discredit those who actually try to figure out what the facts are.
Meanwhile, possibly because Americans never really had autocracy at home, a large number of them seems to not be able to identify an autocrat, or autocratic speech/tactics/tendencies, when they hit them in their faces. This should frighten all of us who value the institutions that have provided us with a previously unimaginable state of welfare and human development.
I'm really not sure why some Western and educated, individuals do not see this. Is it because they believe Russia really doesn't/can't have that much of an impact? Is it because they do not see Russia as an autocracy? Is it because they don't believe that democratic institutions are all that important?
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On March 25 2017 03:15 warding wrote:
"I am an internationalist and pro European integration even though I know it's a neoliberal shithole at the moment"
A neoliberal shithole whose countries have the highest quality of life and human development indexes in History.
"Funfact: Russian army can devour half of the EU before American help wins the war. That's also a smart attempt to evade nukes for the sake of EU."
Yeah the campaign in the Ukraine really shows how mighty the Russian army is. I'm also not sure about your usage of the word 'fact'.
quality of life and human development indexes in History.
Are you suggesting that anti-Putin policies make Europe economically rich?
You can claim EU can defend herself without US help against Russian invasion without mentioning a nation that Nato has abandoned to her fate. All I see is Putin annexing Crimea and making it his land. And yes, I still think it would be pretty late for some EU capitals if world goes war against Putin, I see dialogue is the only way to prevent it, not sanctions. What's the problem with the idea?
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On March 25 2017 03:29 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2017 03:15 warding wrote:
"I am an internationalist and pro European integration even though I know it's a neoliberal shithole at the moment"
A neoliberal shithole whose countries have the highest quality of life and human development indexes in History.
"Funfact: Russian army can devour half of the EU before American help wins the war. That's also a smart attempt to evade nukes for the sake of EU."
Yeah the campaign in the Ukraine really shows how mighty the Russian army is. I'm also not sure about your usage of the word 'fact'. The Anglosphere/Scandinavia top all those indices, not the EU. And the Russian army is afk on the Ukraine border. They're only waiting for an excuse, following which they would take half of Ukraine in a matter of days.
Uhm.. france, germany, austria, italy, belgium, netherlands, luxembourg...
And eastern Europe is when compared to just about anywhere else except probably NA, Skorea and Japan also more than fine.
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On March 25 2017 03:29 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2017 03:15 warding wrote:
"I am an internationalist and pro European integration even though I know it's a neoliberal shithole at the moment"
A neoliberal shithole whose countries have the highest quality of life and human development indexes in History.
"Funfact: Russian army can devour half of the EU before American help wins the war. That's also a smart attempt to evade nukes for the sake of EU."
Yeah the campaign in the Ukraine really shows how mighty the Russian army is. I'm also not sure about your usage of the word 'fact'. The Anglosphere/Scandinavia top all those indices, not the EU. And the Russian army is afk on the Ukraine border. They're only waiting for an excuse, following which they would take half of Ukraine in a matter of days.
I don't know if you know this, but the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia are in the EU. So is Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and Finland. Meanwhile, Norway and Switzerland benefit from the existence of the EU too. Those who are slightly lower in these indexes are also among the ones whose development has benefitted the most from the EU.
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On March 25 2017 03:48 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2017 03:29 bardtown wrote:On March 25 2017 03:15 warding wrote:
"I am an internationalist and pro European integration even though I know it's a neoliberal shithole at the moment"
A neoliberal shithole whose countries have the highest quality of life and human development indexes in History.
"Funfact: Russian army can devour half of the EU before American help wins the war. That's also a smart attempt to evade nukes for the sake of EU."
Yeah the campaign in the Ukraine really shows how mighty the Russian army is. I'm also not sure about your usage of the word 'fact'. The Anglosphere/Scandinavia top all those indices, not the EU. And the Russian army is afk on the Ukraine border. They're only waiting for an excuse, following which they would take half of Ukraine in a matter of days. I don't know if you know this, but the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia are in the EU. So is Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and Finland. Meanwhile, Norway and Switzerland benefit from the existence of the EU too. Those who are slightly lower in these indexes are also among the ones whose development has benefitted the most from the EU.
This kind of argument makes me cringe. Europe has been ahead of the rest of the world for centuries. Trying to give the EU credit for the strength of what have always been extremely highly developed countries is beyond disingenuous. The EU gets some credit for helping the eastern Europeans catch up - it gets absolutely none for strength of Norway or the UK or the Netherlands. It gets none for the success of Canada, New Zealand or Australia. On the other hand, it does get credit for crippling your country, and Spain, and Greece. And I grant you it subsequently gets some credit for Germany who get to export their goods at ridiculously low prices thanks to your crippled economies devaluing its currency.
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On March 25 2017 03:55 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2017 03:48 warding wrote:On March 25 2017 03:29 bardtown wrote:On March 25 2017 03:15 warding wrote:
"I am an internationalist and pro European integration even though I know it's a neoliberal shithole at the moment"
A neoliberal shithole whose countries have the highest quality of life and human development indexes in History.
"Funfact: Russian army can devour half of the EU before American help wins the war. That's also a smart attempt to evade nukes for the sake of EU."
Yeah the campaign in the Ukraine really shows how mighty the Russian army is. I'm also not sure about your usage of the word 'fact'. The Anglosphere/Scandinavia top all those indices, not the EU. And the Russian army is afk on the Ukraine border. They're only waiting for an excuse, following which they would take half of Ukraine in a matter of days. I don't know if you know this, but the UK, Ireland and Scandinavia are in the EU. So is Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and Finland. Meanwhile, Norway and Switzerland benefit from the existence of the EU too. Those who are slightly lower in these indexes are also among the ones whose development has benefitted the most from the EU. This kind of argument makes me cringe. Europe has been ahead of the rest of the world for centuries. Trying to give the EU credit for the strength of what have always been extremely highly developed countries is beyond disingenuous. The EU gets some credit for helping the eastern Europeans catch up - it gets absolutely none for strength of Norway or the UK or the Netherlands. It gets none for the success of Canada, New Zealand or Australia. On the other hand, it does get credit for crippling your country, and Spain, and Greece. And I grant you it subsequently gets some credit for Germany who get to export their goods at ridiculously low prices thanks to your crippled economies devaluing its currency.
Well, my initial statement was to put into perspective the statement that the EU was a neoliberal shithole.
I do think the EU benefits all the nations in it because of the single market, the regulatory synergies and having a framework for working out together problems that affect the continent as a whole. A country that is developed in 1910 is only going to continue it's progress of development if it maintains the quality of its institutions and if it can benefit from freedom of trade, which is part of how the EU has benefited these countries. You can check the progress of countries like the Czech Republic for example - a developed economy in 1900, suffered immensely under the Soviet Union, and then joined the EU which helped it catch up.
As for Portugal, it owes to the EU the fact that it can today claim it is a developed nation. As for the sovereign debt crisis, that was our own fault, to blame those who helped us would be idiotic. As for the reforms the EU imposed, the majority actually vastly enhanced the quality of our institutions. I can't speak for Spain and Greece.
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I think it's hard to attribute that success to the EU. Who's to say what Portugal would have done if it had spent the last 20 years outside the EU instead, seeing neighbouring countries making those reforms? As I understand it, Portugal was a great country long before the EU came along, and is currently more progressive than the rest of the EU on issues like drug decriminalisation. If only sharing a currency with Germany hadn't kept it at the bottom of the pile after 2008.
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Not really. Their GDP PPP rose from 51% of the EU average to 78% in 2002 only to go down again afterwards. They were coined the sick man of Europe by the Economist in 2007 (before the crisis). Portugal's crisis is home grown. You can make the argument that not having its own currency didn't help in the recovery but it's certainly not what caused Portugal to be on the bottom of the pile.
http://www.economist.com/node/9009032
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The whole shtick of "if we only got our own currency we'd be free!" has been disproved so many times it's not even funny. Many countries that are not in the EU or the US are pegged against the respective currencies voluntarily because constant devaluation has eroded trust in investors and the end result was almost always bad.
If you give away the monetary toolbox the problem is simply that domestic politics needs to function or else you're in a horrible situation. But especially smaller countries have a lot to gain when they can leverage the effects of strong currencies. Especially the Baltic countries have done this successfully.
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That's like saying 'right wing politics has been disproved'. These are not things that can be disproved. They are approaches and trade-offs. And the trade off for the Mediterranean nations has been absolutely appalling.
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disproved as in "we have plenty of examples and arguments that show that this policy doesn't work", obviously it's not a mathematical proof and there's nuance to it. But there are many structural issues that make monetary policy an ineffective tool. Not just the investor trust and bad practical results in the past, but also global supply chains in the future. If you rely on imports as almost any developed nation does a devaluation will directly hurt you and might be ineffective, you're closing yourself off to transfer of knowledge, capital and so on, you hamper innovation in your own country because you combat competition through monetary means rather than better products.
Practical example is Greece. Greece biggest export is refined petroleum. To sell this they need to buy... petroleum. If they get out of the currency union every advantage in competitiveness will be offset by increased import prices.
The better mid and long term solution is almost always to fix the underlying problems in the region.
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Meh. We have a completely different view of the situation. Good look 'fixing the region' when they are all trapped in debt they cannot pay off. Cannot express how thankful I am to be outside this monetary union...
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Which is caused by the currency in what way?
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The entire economy is affected by the currency... Nothing is at an appropriate level. Not interest, not inflation, not exchange rates. They cannot compete, they cannot grow, they cannot get out of debt. If you think there is no link between a massively overvalued currency and debt in Italy/Greece then you know essentially nothing about economics.
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On March 25 2017 05:28 bardtown wrote:
Meh. We have a completely different view of the situation. Good look 'fixing the region' when they are all trapped in debt they cannot pay off. Cannot express how thankful I am to be outside this monetary union...
Well. You also live in one of the richer countries of the union. So it would never have affected you like that. Moreover, Greece's choice was to be fucked the way they were or to be fucked Argentina style (can't borrow, because they didn't repay loans and were sent to IMF purgatory). Between the two, Greece is the lesser of two evils.
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On March 25 2017 05:40 bardtown wrote:
The entire economy is affected by the currency... Nothing is at an appropriate level. Not interest, not inflation, not exchange rates. They cannot compete, they cannot grow, they cannot get out of debt. If you think there is no link between a massively overvalued currency and debt in Italy/Greece then you know essentially nothing about economics.
That would be somewhat apt aimed at me, but pretty sure RvB knows more about economics than the two of us combined.
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Poland and Czech Republic are keeping their own currency and have had fantastic growth under the EU.
But also Romania kept its own currency, though in day to day use the euro is just as popular. Unlike Poland where you cannot use a euro to buy a beer in most of the country.
One of the concerns I hear is that because the Polish currency is so weak, if they switched to euro and then were forced to price match the cost of goods to the rest of the EU they would not be able to buy food. A guy working for 10PLN per hour can buy a liter of milk for 4PLN lets say. If he earned 2 euros per hour, that liter of milk might cost him 1 euro. That is a big drop in purchasing power.
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Are you Romanian? I stayed there for 6 months and I don't think I saw any euros at all!
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EPT
