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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On February 24 2017 18:59 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2017 18:36 Big J wrote:On February 24 2017 18:28 TheDwf wrote:On February 24 2017 17:48 Big J wrote:On February 24 2017 17:17 Laurens wrote:On February 24 2017 08:45 LegalLord wrote:On February 24 2017 08:43 TheDwf wrote:On February 24 2017 08:42 LegalLord wrote:
Of course it's not a game. But it's good to cheer for the candidate who would be best for the rest of us. Who is “the rest of us”? Those who don't have to live with the results of her domestic policy, whatever it may be. She would help end the EU which would certainly be a good thing, so she has my full support for that alone. Even if Le Pen wins, there is no chance of a Frexit referendum passing, I'm not sure what other steps she could take to "help end the EU" but I'm skeptical. Can she realize her plan to leave the Euro and bancrupt France without a referendum? Why would there be an automatic bankrupt? She said that she would hold a referendum (and resign if she lost it!). Because if she converts all debt to Francs as she says she will, France is immidiately unable to fullfill its financial obligations, as they are in Euro. That is what is called bancruptcy. Nope, those obligations would be relabelled in the new French currency (97% of the bond contracts obey to the French law, so debts would be paid in what the French state considers the legal tender). Plus the euro would disappear in the following weeks/months anyway if France left it, so the real problem would rather be to master the consequences of this upheaval.
Besides that, and other considerations aside (panic in the financial markets, need for capital controls, etc, etc), wouldn't the French governtment be sitting on a pile of euros after conversion? Or is there some treaty that would require France to return the euros distributed when the frank->euro conversion first took place plus whatever the ECB printed for them since then?
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On February 24 2017 21:20 pmh wrote:
Why would a frexit referendum not pass? I doubt there is a large majority in france for staying in the Eurozone.
Fairly sure it would be close either way.
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On February 24 2017 21:04 Laurens wrote:
I think it's just a way of putting pressure on the voters.
"Vote for what I want or face political chaos in your country"
Didn't seem to work for Cameron and Renzi though.
Actually it was expected that David Cameron would continue. The leave voters expected that he would be the one to lead UK out of the EU. His resignation was very unexpected.
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On February 24 2017 21:51 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2017 21:04 Laurens wrote:
I think it's just a way of putting pressure on the voters.
"Vote for what I want or face political chaos in your country"
Didn't seem to work for Cameron and Renzi though. Actually it was expected that David Cameron would continue. The leave voters expected that he would be the one to lead UK out of the EU. His resignation was very unexpected.
I guess it depends who you asked 
It's certainly true that Cameron didn't announce beforehand that he would resign in case of Brexit, my bad, but a lot of people did expect it to happen.
Just the first article on the issue I found: www.independent.co.uk
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On February 24 2017 17:17 Laurens wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2017 08:45 LegalLord wrote:On February 24 2017 08:43 TheDwf wrote:On February 24 2017 08:42 LegalLord wrote:
Of course it's not a game. But it's good to cheer for the candidate who would be best for the rest of us. Who is “the rest of us”? Those who don't have to live with the results of her domestic policy, whatever it may be. She would help end the EU which would certainly be a good thing, so she has my full support for that alone. Even if Le Pen wins, there is no chance of a Frexit referendum passing, I'm not sure what other steps she could take to "help end the EU" but I'm skeptical.
Well regardless of what politicians would say, it is absolutely painful to have one pillar of that organization (France) actively undermining the EU. Last time around it was Cameron, Obama, Hollande, and Merkel, a pretty solid pro-EU coalition with a unified message. Two of those are already gone. The third would make it be just Germany standing there in defense of the EU, which simply won't look like the face of unity that would be necessary in a troubled time.
France withdrawing would alone herald the end of the EU; that much is true but it's also true that the popular opinion probably isn't there yet. But if the opinion of the union is fractured that will lead to fracturing of the union itself. Which is already happening, but it will get even worse.
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On February 24 2017 21:51 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2017 21:04 Laurens wrote:
I think it's just a way of putting pressure on the voters.
"Vote for what I want or face political chaos in your country"
Didn't seem to work for Cameron and Renzi though. Actually it was expected that David Cameron would continue. The leave voters expected that he would be the one to lead UK out of the EU. His resignation was very unexpected.
Not in the slightest. After the ridiculous spin of the campaign there was almost nobody who voted Leave that still supported Cameron/Osborne, and that was a large majority of their voter base. His resignation was inevitable even if campaigners said the polite thing about wanting him to stay.
If he hadn't been so involved in the campaign it would have been different.
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I think it really quite odd to call a referendum then say "pls vote against it" for months.
He should have sat back and let it play out. Would have probably yielded better results too.
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On February 25 2017 00:34 LegalLord wrote:
I think it really quite odd to call a referendum then say "pls vote against it" for months.
He should have sat back and let it play out. Would have probably yielded better results too.
Yeah. Even if he had won it would have been entirely off the backs of Scottish/London/Labour voters and he would have lost the support of his backbenchers and voters. He put himself in a lose-lose situation. It was a pretty poor strategic decision.
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On February 24 2017 20:58 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2017 18:28 TheDwf wrote:On February 24 2017 17:48 Big J wrote:On February 24 2017 17:17 Laurens wrote:On February 24 2017 08:45 LegalLord wrote:On February 24 2017 08:43 TheDwf wrote:On February 24 2017 08:42 LegalLord wrote:
Of course it's not a game. But it's good to cheer for the candidate who would be best for the rest of us. Who is “the rest of us”? Those who don't have to live with the results of her domestic policy, whatever it may be. She would help end the EU which would certainly be a good thing, so she has my full support for that alone. Even if Le Pen wins, there is no chance of a Frexit referendum passing, I'm not sure what other steps she could take to "help end the EU" but I'm skeptical. Can she realize her plan to leave the Euro and bancrupt France without a referendum? Why would there be an automatic bankrupt? She said that she would hold a referendum (and resign if she lost it!). I have to admit I don't understand that whole "I'll resign if I lose the referendum" thing (Mélenchon said he would do the same last night). I mean come on, as a President you should be able to respect the fact that once you decide to directly ask the people what it wants, you do what the people wants. It's your job, and even your duty. Resigning in such a case is desertion and basically means that you don't have what it takes to be a President, only a small egocentric tyrant who needs to know people love him. (also, you're taking a huge and unnecessary risk, as Cameron showed)
Well... if you tell your boss
"I believe very strongly that X is the wrong way to do things (for professional/moral/legal/etc reasons). However you are the boss and If you tell me to do X I won't sit in my office stopping you from doing X, I will leave so someone else can do X"
Then it seems quite reasonable. Especially if there is someone ready to take your place.
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Emmanuel Macron has outlined a Nordic-style economic programme mixing fiscal discipline and public spending, amid mounting pressure to clarify his policies two months before France’s presidential election.
The election hopeful said in an interview with Les Echos that he would target €60bn in savings over five years and cut up to 120,000 civil service jobs while vowing at the same time to reinject €50bn into the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
“We need to invent a new growth model,” Mr Macron was quoted as saying in the French business daily late on Thursday. “To be fair and sustainable, it must be environmentally friendly and increase social mobility.”
Under his plan, France would keep budget deficit below the EU-required threshold of 3 per cent of gross domestic product — a target he estimates will be met this year. He would reform the labour market to give companies more flexibility to negotiate working hours and pay, but he would also extend the welfare state, allowing entrepreneurs and self-employed to be eligible to unemployment benefits. He would lower companies and households’ tax bill by €20bn.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/3691a448-fa1d-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65 (paywalled)
So is he lying out of his ass?
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On February 25 2017 02:39 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +Emmanuel Macron has outlined a Nordic-style economic programme mixing fiscal discipline and public spending, amid mounting pressure to clarify his policies two months before France’s presidential election.
The election hopeful said in an interview with Les Echos that he would target €60bn in savings over five years and cut up to 120,000 civil service jobs while vowing at the same time to reinject €50bn into the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
“We need to invent a new growth model,” Mr Macron was quoted as saying in the French business daily late on Thursday. “To be fair and sustainable, it must be environmentally friendly and increase social mobility.”
Under his plan, France would keep budget deficit below the EU-required threshold of 3 per cent of gross domestic product — a target he estimates will be met this year. He would reform the labour market to give companies more flexibility to negotiate working hours and pay, but he would also extend the welfare state, allowing entrepreneurs and self-employed to be eligible to unemployment benefits. He would lower companies and households’ tax bill by €20bn. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/3691a448-fa1d-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65 (paywalled) So is he lying out of his ass?
Lying about what?
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He's promising a social-democratic Nordic economy simultaneous to neoliberal austerity. Is it even possible?
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On February 25 2017 02:55 LightSpectra wrote:
He's promising a social-democratic Nordic economy simultaneous to neoliberal austerity. Is it even possible?
Never heard Macron talk about a “nordic model,” nor about “social-democracy,” + Show Spoiler +Macron defines himself as a “progressist”
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The first line there was "Emmanuel Macron has outlined a Nordic-style economic programme", so unless that means something else that I'm not aware of....?
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On February 25 2017 03:14 LightSpectra wrote:
The first line there was "Emmanuel Macron has outlined a Nordic-style economic programme", so unless that means something else that I'm not aware of....?
Then it's probably the appreciation of the author.
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On February 25 2017 02:55 LightSpectra wrote:
He's promising a social-democratic Nordic economy simultaneous to neoliberal austerity. Is it even possible?
if you're asking if it's contradictory, not really. This has also been dubbed 'flexicurity' among other things and simply tries to leverage the 'neoliberal' economy with a central welfare state rather than pushing for unions or worker coops or strong regulations.
More individual labour markets, lifelong learning, flexible pension age, that kind of stuff.
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Marine Le Pen was summoned by the police in the EU fake jobs case. She refused to go (she still has the parliamentary immunity...), and wrote a letter saying that she would not go before both campaigns (presidential and legislative) end, complaining that it was not the right time, etc. Basically victimization and conspirationnist accusations about the justice having a political agenda, blabla.
It's insane how arrogant this woman is. The prime minister blamed her for behaving like she's above the law.
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On February 25 2017 01:13 Krikkitone wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2017 20:58 OtherWorld wrote:On February 24 2017 18:28 TheDwf wrote:On February 24 2017 17:48 Big J wrote:On February 24 2017 17:17 Laurens wrote:On February 24 2017 08:45 LegalLord wrote:On February 24 2017 08:43 TheDwf wrote:On February 24 2017 08:42 LegalLord wrote:
Of course it's not a game. But it's good to cheer for the candidate who would be best for the rest of us. Who is “the rest of us”? Those who don't have to live with the results of her domestic policy, whatever it may be. She would help end the EU which would certainly be a good thing, so she has my full support for that alone. Even if Le Pen wins, there is no chance of a Frexit referendum passing, I'm not sure what other steps she could take to "help end the EU" but I'm skeptical. Can she realize her plan to leave the Euro and bancrupt France without a referendum? Why would there be an automatic bankrupt? She said that she would hold a referendum (and resign if she lost it!). I have to admit I don't understand that whole "I'll resign if I lose the referendum" thing (Mélenchon said he would do the same last night). I mean come on, as a President you should be able to respect the fact that once you decide to directly ask the people what it wants, you do what the people wants. It's your job, and even your duty. Resigning in such a case is desertion and basically means that you don't have what it takes to be a President, only a small egocentric tyrant who needs to know people love him. (also, you're taking a huge and unnecessary risk, as Cameron showed) Well... if you tell your boss "I believe very strongly that X is the wrong way to do things (for professional/moral/legal/etc reasons). However you are the boss and If you tell me to do X I won't sit in my office stopping you from doing X, I will leave so someone else can do X" Then it seems quite reasonable. Especially if there is someone ready to take your place.
Except as a president, you kinda are the boss, even though you're a boss elected by your own employees. So here, it would be like the boss saying to his employees "okay, so I asked you if you agreed about working more hours for the next week to meet temporarily increased demand, you refused. So, instead of working out a compromise or trying to do my best for our brand despite the added constraint that is your refusal, I'll just leave."
Does it still seem quite reasonable ? I'll add that I expect them to be able to apply their platform even when new data appears - such as a lost referendum. If your whole program relies on a single binary decision (leaving or not leaving the UE, here), then maybe your program is just bad. And if it relies on single binary decision and you're ready to submit that decision to a referendum while you've been democratically elected (essentially asking the people to elect you for a second time), maybe you're just afraid of taking your responsabilities.
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The PNF announced a few hours ago that a judicial investigation has been opened in the Fillon case. This brings Fillon closer to an indictment, though it will probably not happen before the election. There are 6 charges: misuse of corporate assets, embezzlement of public funds, complicity and concealment of those two last charges, influence peddling and failure to fulfill the mandatory declarations required by the High Authority for the Transparence of Public Life.
The PNF had to act now because the next week, our brilliant MPs will vote a law which... reduces the prescription period for some financial offences! And this new law might have benefited to Fillon, since some of the facts happened between 1998 and 2005.
Anyway, as of now, Fillon can be summoned any time by the justice and get charged.
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Didn't Fillion say that he's going to drop out if this continues to go on? Who are his voters gonna flock to?
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EPT
