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On November 28 2016 05:41 LegalLord wrote:
Can anyone summarize the reasons behind why Hollande is unpopular right now?
He betrayed his electorate, and overall the left, to extents never seen before. He didn't hold most of his promises—most notably, his original sin was not to renegotiate the last European treaty. He failed on almost everything. Almost no social progress was made. 1.3 million extra unemployed people since 2012. Gave dozens of billions of euros to companies for free, hoping that they would hire people… surprise, surprise, they didn't. Meanwhile, austerity and more taxes for people. Didn't rise salaries or small pensions (poverty increased). Bulldozed workers' rights, using an authoritarian method (that he was denouncing as undemocratic 10 years before, when the right did it) which allows the government to bypass the parliamentary vote; and he did this despite 65-70% of the population being against his reform (there were months of protests, a first for the social movement against a government which claims to be left). Proposed a nonsensical far right measure regarding nationality after the terror attacks of November 2015. Terrible foreign policy, getting involved in more wars than ever for dubious reasons. Attacked fundamental liberties under the pretext of “fighting terrorism” (we're stuck under a state of emergency for more than a year, for nothing). Too many renouncements about ecology—he lost the support of nearly all ecologists. Shameful management of migrants/refugees, obnoxious debates about islam which helped to spread far right theses. Didn't address problems with the police, including racial profiling. Prison overcrowding. His minister who was supposed to fight fiscal fraud… was a fraud himself.
It's just a never-ending list of betrayals, renunciations and mistakes. He talked left during the campaign, but acted right afterwards. His policy was globally harsher than Sarkozy's one in most domains. The right cannot be happy about him because of partisanship and “not enough” mindset, and all but the most moderate left fled from him.
Basically just the classic story of the Blair/Clinton line failing as it did everywhere.
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Incognito you're just a liberal basically. I gave you plenty of proof that austerity in this context does not work, you just don't want to listen.
From what I've heard, there are 300 000 public workers who are bureacrats, the others are either working as nurses, doctor, policemen, judge, teachers. Fillon wants to cut the number of public workers by 500 000, so tell me who is he going to cut ?
On November 28 2016 05:41 LegalLord wrote:
Can anyone summarize the reasons behind why Hollande is unpopular right now?
To add something that Dwf didn't say : french need someone at the top of the state that is more than just a technocrat. He need to incarnate the status, and Hollande is a complete idiot with no charisma at all.
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The right isn't happy with Hollande because he raised taxes and the French people got literally nothing in return.
I don't know about bulldozing worker rights, in the end the crappy law he tried to push ended up being emptied of anything of substance. French worker rights went no-where but he absolutely pissed off everyone in the way he tried (and failed, rofl) to enforce the law.
Fillon might actually free up the labor market. Better to have a job where you can get fired if you suck than not being hired at all - of course many people disagree with that because they believe they are entitled to exchange (shitty) work for money, as if it's a fundamental human right.
There isn't a single French person who profited from Hollande. The lower, middle and upper classes were equally fucked by Hollande.
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On November 28 2016 06:21 Makro wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2016 05:28 Incognoto wrote:On November 28 2016 04:57 Dan HH wrote:On November 28 2016 04:31 TheDwf wrote:
Fillon leading 70:30 so far (first results, based on 20% of the vote counts). Because we all know what France needs as an alternative to Le Pen is someone trying to catch up with Botswana's GINI coefficient What a ghastly runoff that would be + Show Spoiler +Fillon makes sense to me. I don't see what's wrong with his proposed policies. This isn't communism, the public sector is not and should not be the principal actor of the economy. He's going to make it easier for companies to hire people, easier for companies to make money and he's going to tackle the ridiculous amount of debt which France has amassed. Before the left-wingers in this thread call me a Nazi for saying these policies make sense, I really want to let them know that I know of Keynesian economics. I just don't think that's really done anything for France. Socialists in France have heavily augmented taxes during the past 4 years. It didn't help shit, get over it. Companies aren't hiring. Unemployment is high. It's an actual recession. There aren't any jobs. All of our good companies are getting bought by foreigner investors, factories all over the nation are getting closed. This is reality, the reality of what 4 years of raising taxes, raising public spending, raising our level of debt has done. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/mYH5VZw.png) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/government-debt-to-gdphttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/government-spending-to-gdpThese policies don't work, because contrarily to what Hollande thinks, the economy is stagnant and unemployment is still high. The issue isn't public spending in itself, it's actually a good tool to help stimulate the economy, if your politicians aren't French, corrupt retards (which they are in France). French public spending has been squandered hard and it shows when you look at the basic economic situation. Fillon will at very least make the load lighter for the private sector (gasp gasp, Europeans hate the idea of individual liberties and responsibilities, I know), thus making it easier for THEM to make a difference. The public sector isn't going to make the difference, it's down to each individual to do so. Individuals aren't going to do that if taxes are high and they can't keep the money to EARNED (another European notion: money and work are horrible things). There's also the entire mess in that it makes 0 fucking sense to invest any cash in France. Literally all gains are confiscated. Why bother? If you make €100 through investing in France, €95 goes to the state, where it's wasted by the French government. There's NO incentive for any economic activity in France. Companies can't hire anyone because it's an incredibly big risk to take. So everyone gets shitty temporary contracts instead of good contracts and everyone is stressing out thinking about if they're going to be making a living in a few months (or thinking about their next job). completely agree, let's deregulate the labour market, put an end to our current healthcare and france is gonna be alright within the span of 5 years i just realized that lepen - fillon is gonna be way closer than what i thought just for the two things i mentioned above
Yeah, just imagine that : the national front might be the new left. LOL.
I heard Philippot today he said that they would end the el khomry law if le pen was elected, and that he wanted to protect the social security ... like wut.
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they're essentially a nationalist socialist party in the literal sense so it's not that surprising. It's also an ideology that has a uniquely poor track record on this continent
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Here comes the german trying to put their mistake on humanity again.
User was temp banned for this post.
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On November 28 2016 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:
Incognito you're just a liberal basically. I gave you plenty of proof that austerity in this context does not work, you just don't want to listen.
Where is this austerity you speak of?
Taxes went up, yes. However the debt went up, so did public spending. A massive amount of cash was burned by the government on projects which did not create value to the country (like my example of tearing up perfectly good roads, only to replace them).
Austerity may even be a bad policy but I don't really think austerity happened, mostly because the debt is higher than ever before, public spending is higher than ever before and unemployment is also higher than ever before. There is NOTHING which is has been advanced positively.
I don't see Keynesian policies doing their work here either, so you can flame me for being a liberal all day you want, in the end the economy is still in a sorry state.
To me, saying public spending is good for the economy is very comparable to the hardcore capitalist saying that the wealth of rich people trickles down to lower classes. Both of those ideas are equally stupid and a middle ground needs to be found.
France is waaaaaaaaay over the top when it comes to its public sector.
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On November 28 2016 08:17 WhiteDog wrote:
Here comes the german trying to put their mistake on humanity again.
Yeah we should essentially just shut up if we see demagogues getting into power all over the place, sounds completely reasonable. Do you think national socialism is great and we just screwed it up or something? The crap has been repeated all over the place with the same results.
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On November 28 2016 08:17 WhiteDog wrote:
Here comes the german trying to put their mistake on humanity again.
I can't remember any nationalist movement ever leading to anything good, because in the end, once they have "taken back control" for their countries, they eventually have to realize that their countries are not islands and that when a country next to you does shit that is hurting you and you have no common table left that you sit on, you are eventually left with the ultima ratio if you want to stand to your words and that means war.
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On November 28 2016 05:39 Big J wrote:
But she has shown the decensy that in a real world situation in which you will have to deal with refugees because they are coming no matter what, you have to prepare the own people beforehand and that if you have to deal with foreign assholes like Orban in a peaceful manner that make you decide between basic human dignity for hundret thousands and staying true to a European regulation you always choose dignity. It's the least one can do to not become a human abomination like Orban.
I can't speak for Hungary or Orban in specific, but I do know that they were part of the Warsaw Pact and that perhaps they see the dangers of uncontrolled migration in the same way we did back then. While it certainly seems backwards from a Western perspective, the East has not been a stable place, and importing a mass of individuals from backwards nations truly does represent an existential threat. Frankly the security structure (i.e. the KGB and similar groups), despite being bloated and overbearing, existed to defend against several very real threats, among which is terrorism and other dangers that come with those migrant populations. We've seen how that game can play out and what the stakes are.
Maybe that's what Orban and Hungary are concerned about, maybe not. Nevertheless, it's absolutely true that the Western perspective on refugees has proven to be absurdly naive and has set something of a massive train wreck in motion. And while I couldn't have predicted exactly when and where things would go wrong, as someone from that world I knew from the very start that what would come of that migrant crisis would be a dangerous existential crisis that could undermine the entire Europe project. We have been there in the past, we know the dangers of poorly conceived migration ploys and how they play out. Nothing here is surprising and I think Orban acted as he needed to in order to minimize the fallout of that crisis on his own nation.
And given that the criticisms of Orban are pretty much the exact same as those in the wake of Russian troops dealing with terror cells within its own country, I see reason to doubt the villainous view ascribed to Orban. I hear from some Hungarians that they aren't greatly fond of him for economic reasons though. But to be fair people always say that.
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I'm not a pro FN or anything, I'll most certainly only vote in the first turn of this election, but the idea that the national front is similar to the nazis is gross. Like, let's be serious a little. Nyxisto is just playing on words, he knows full well that the nazi had nothing socialist in them.
About nationalisme, I do not even know what that term means nowadays.
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On November 28 2016 07:57 Incognoto wrote:
Another French poster who posts a sarcastic two liner without bringing anything of merit to actually discuss.
Well, you criticize Hollande for not controlling the debt and say that at least Fillon would fix this... but he did basically twice as worse during his 2007-2012 mandate. Debt rose by 600 billions of euros under him (socialized banksters' losses without any counterparty...), and his austerity policy is responsible for the unemployment rise past 2011.
What Fillon wants is an even harsher variant of what failed so far. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
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On November 28 2016 08:11 Incognoto wrote:
There isn't a single French person who profited from Hollande.
Oh yes, there are. The 500 wealthiest families in France are fine, thanks for them. Also record of dividends paid last year.
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On November 28 2016 08:24 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2016 07:57 Incognoto wrote:
Another French poster who posts a sarcastic two liner without bringing anything of merit to actually discuss. Well, you criticize Hollande for not controlling the debt and say that at least Fillon would fix this... but he did basically twice as worse during his 2007-2012 mandate. Debt rose by 600 billions of euros under him (socialized banksters' losses without any counterparty...), and his austerity policy is responsible for the unemployment rise past 2011. What Fillon wants is an even harsher variant of what failed so far. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Socializing banking losses is something the entire world had to do due to the 2009 sub prime crisis. It's an ugly thing but you can put that on the banker's of wall street really. They're too big to die, otherwise they take the world with them.
Saying austerity policies lead to unemployment is a bit of a stretch but I can imagine that public sector workers becoming useless once they try to work in the private sector. <_<
Again, you're saying we have austerity policies but the debt has not gone down, nor has public spending. Is that really austerity or is my definition somehow off? I thought austerity was less public spending, less debt and more taxes to pay for it all. we have more taxes but also more public spending and more debt under both fillon/sarko and hollande.
I don't see austerity, just money being burned or being hidden in fiscal paradises
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On November 28 2016 08:23 WhiteDog wrote:
I'm not a pro FN or anything, I'll most certainly only vote in the first turn of this election, but the idea that the national front is similar to the nazis is gross. Like, let's be serious a little. Nyxisto is just playing on words, he knows full well that the nazi had nothing socialist in them.
About nationalisme, I do not even know what that term means nowadays.
Of course they haven't but neither has the FN. They're not literal socialists like Orwell or whatever but they use the same kind of emotional mass appeal and Jean Marie Le Pen is a literal neo-nazi and just because they've thrown the guy out and put suits on they're not much less radical. Just like the Sweden Democrats or other comparable parties they come out of a 70's and 80's far right milieu. I don't believe for a second that they can shake that off, it's where their longest core supporters come from.
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Tell me about states that actually have austerity policy.
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On November 28 2016 08:19 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2016 08:17 WhiteDog wrote:
Here comes the german trying to put their mistake on humanity again. Yeah we should essentially just shut up if we see demagogues getting into power all over the place, sounds completely reasonable. Do you think national socialism is great and we just screwed it up or something? The crap has been repeated all over the place with the same results.
lepen is not part of the system, even if she, by miracle, get into power, the whole administration(préfecture, ENA, technocrat) will not follow and she will have a really hard time rulling over the country
and even then trying to make the slightest comparison between her and the national socialism is extremely exaggerated to say the least for obvious reason (the context is vastly different, no need to say)
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On November 28 2016 08:16 Nyxisto wrote:
they're essentially a nationalist socialist party in the literal sense so it's not that surprising. It's also an ideology that has a uniquely poor track record on this continent
There is nothing socialist in the Front National, they're simply national-opportunist who ride whatever wave is popular at the moment. They were liberal in the 1980s (Jean-Marie Le Pen wanted to be France's Reagan...); now that globalization and neoliberalism are under fire, they claim that the State has virtues... But beyond what they call “economic patriotism,” there is no coherence in their economic program—economy has never been their core theme anyway. At their last meeting to define their economic program, they were still torn between liberalism and interventionnism. Since Fillon won and Marine Le Pen is the one who carries the Philippot line, they will probably adopt something which differentiates them strongly from Fillon's program, if only to match their critic of “ultraliberalism” and their pseudo-social rhetoric; but they still want to appeal to their social base of small business owners, who want liberal measures and less workers' rights, so I can't wait to discover what pathetic contortions they will use to remain credible in the eyes of workers and small bosses. You can't please everyone, except in the fairy land of nationalism, where class struggle doesn't exist because Fraaaaaaance transcends it.
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"You can't please everyone, except in the fairy land of nationalism, where class struggle doesn't exist because Fraaaaaaance transcends it."
Yeah, the nation - france - is a short term compromise between antagonist groups, like all institutions. If you refuse this, how do you defend the social security, public school, and everything else. If you refuse this, voting has no importance, and you're part of lutte ouvrière who refuse to vote for a bourgeois because he or she is a bourgeois.
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On November 28 2016 08:33 Big J wrote:
Tell me about states that actually have austerity policy.
Canada, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, maybe Spain?
It's hard to find neutral material since whoever writes about this topic are guilty confirmation bias to an almost disgusting degree.
Japan, France, etc. would be examples of countries where anti-austerity didn't work (though again, some argue that France is in austerity?)
I'm not sure, it's hard to talk about this topic because people get pissy straight off (myself included, sorry about that)
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EPT
