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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
seems legit not that there are any hard numbers but The Netherlands is the largest investor in Germany. The bulk of Dutch investments are in North Rhine-Westphalia (35% of the total), followed by Hesse, Hamburg, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. makes it sound like it isn't just shipping | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
We're exporting 98b towards the netherlands and importing 122b. And Wikipedia claims that they'd have a bigger trade surplus than Germany if you scale them up. So that's in line and while imports arriving in the Netherlands might be a thing I don't see any reason why a german company wouldn't just use Hamburg/Frankfurt for exports. long story short, I'm assuming it's already adjusted | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18381 Posts
On November 23 2016 03:40 Toadesstern wrote: it's also in line if you compare export/import. We're exporting 98b towards the netherlands and importing 122b. And Wikipedia claims that they'd have a bigger trade surplus than Germany if you scale them up. So that's in line and while imports arriving in the Netherlands might be a thing I don't see any reason why a german company wouldn't just use Hamburg/Frankfurt for exports. long story short, I'm assuming it's already adjusted Okay, interesting. I guess seeing as Germany is the Netherlands most important trading partner "by far", that also makes sense (China has huge trade volumes with everybody else as well as Germany). | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6302 Posts
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Incognoto
France10239 Posts
I just want to come back to this thread to say a few things. First off, I really don't like it when someone says "google it" or "I don't have time to explain it to you" and then refuse to explain their ideas. If you can't break down an idea in a paragraph or two, then I'm just going to consider that your argument is weightless. Pretty much any idea or issue can be explained in one or two paragraphs really. If you don't want to discuss things and hide behind google and external links, then that is fine, but don't spout the "you're totally ignorant xD NEWBIE" with that. Secondly, I think that there is little doubt that public spending can be an excellent stimulus to the economy. However the question is how you invest that money, a question which you also conveniently dodged. I'm asking what are, precisely, the investments that the government should bring to the table in order to stimulate economic growth, hiring, etc. You say that Fillon is worse than Le Pen, when Le Pen is basically communism and racism. How silly can you get? Fillon is going to rightfully sack half a million unproductive people (who don't even work 20 hours a week) and have the rest of them work full-time. €100B in economies. That is that much weight that companies and people need to carry through taxes, thus making it easier for companies to make profit (or are companies evil slave drivers in your eyes?) and thus for people to get hired and actually earn a damn living. I'm all for government investment, but I'm not for excessively taxing everything and anything in the name of spending billions for useless things which don't actually create wealth. Expensive social protection is another thing which deserves to go. It's fine to pay for medical expenses and offer social protection, however you and I both know full well that in France things go way beyond that. So many perfectly fine road have been torn apart and remade in the area where I live, for fucking no good reason. You aren't going to make the economy prosper by destroying wealth (old, good road) and creating it right after (new road, no better than the old one). In my personal circles I have heard of so many different instances of public spending being wasted for no good reason. Fuck, just watch youtube videos and you see so many useless public ads (edf making ads for no reason since they have monopoly, government making ads against radical islam and djihad, government making ads against wasting food, etc.). It's abhorrent the way public money is wasted. It's fine to say that austerity is the next holocaust, but wasting money for no reason is equally stupid. This is just in my own circles, I can't even begin to imagine where else the government is burning tax payer money for no reason. So I repeat my question: can you please share with me, what are the investments which will truly stimulate economic growth in France? Do you think that taxes should be raised further and do you believe that high taxation has no negative impact of economic stimulus? Do you think that the debt problem is moot in Europe? Would you personally borrow more money than you could reimburse? If not, why is it fine for France and Europe to do so? Too big to sink? Just to underline: I'm not against you or the left personally. I'm merely interested in discussing these topics with other people than those who share my own views, because if Trump's election taught me one thing, it's the danger of echo chambers and validating your own views by discussing them with other people with the same views. That's one of the catches of social media. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6302 Posts
Minsky started with an explanation of investment. It is, in essence, an exchange of money today for money tomorrow. A firm pays now for the construction of a factory; profits from running the facility will, all going well, translate into money for it in coming years. Put crudely, money today can come from one of two sources: the firm’s own cash or that of others (for example, if the firm borrows from a bank). The balance between the two is the key question for the financial system. Minsky distinguished between three kinds of financing. The first, which he called “hedge financing”, is the safest: firms rely on their future cashflow to repay all their borrowings. For this to work, they need to have very limited borrowings and healthy profits. The second, speculative financing, is a bit riskier: firms rely on their cashflow to repay the interest on their borrowings but must roll over their debt to repay the principal. This should be manageable as long as the economy functions smoothly, but a downturn could cause distress. The third, Ponzi financing, is the most dangerous. Cashflow covers neither principal nor interest; firms are betting only that the underlying asset will appreciate by enough to cover their liabilities. If that fails to happen, they will be left exposed. Economies dominated by hedge financing—that is, those with strong cashflows and low debt levels—are the most stable. When speculative and, especially, Ponzi financing come to the fore, financial systems are more vulnerable. If asset values start to fall, either because of monetary tightening or some external shock, the most overstretched firms will be forced to sell their positions. This further undermines asset values, causing pain for even more firms. They could avoid this trouble by restricting themselves to hedge financing. But over time, particularly when the economy is in fine fettle, the temptation to take on debt is irresistible. When growth looks assured, why not borrow more? Banks add to the dynamic, lowering their credit standards the longer booms last. If defaults are minimal, why not lend more? Minsky’s conclusion was unsettling. Economic stability breeds instability. Periods of prosperity give way to financial fragility. www.economist.com The Economist explains a Minsky moment quite wel. | ||
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Incognoto
France10239 Posts
Austerity seems like responsibility 101. I'm not saying public spending should be ended, I'm saying it should be reduced and only things which actually contribute should be considered. Social measures should be reduced to their minimal amount and on the other hand, all the incentives should be there for companies to hire and for people to find work. High taxation and high social security garners the opposite effect. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10924 Posts
As for taxes, somehow i don't see this "Ultra-low-tax" countries blowing everyone else out of the wather when it comes to productivity. Aside from Banking/Trading and other overblown sectors that make their Money with financial Transactions (no, they are not unecessary, just way bigger than they should be). | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6302 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 23 2016 18:10 Incognoto wrote: You say that Fillon is worse than Le Pen, when Le Pen is basically communism and racism. How can you even write things like that, lol... The FN is historically and viscerally anti-communist—as every right-wing party. There is literally nothing communist in their program. The only communist parties left in France belong to the far-left (e.g. LO and NPA). Not even the French Communist Party is communist anymore! The FN has zero intention of overthrowing the capitalist system. During the protests against the labour reform, Marine Le Pen actually had to urgently call their députés so that they would withdraw the even more liberal amendments that they had proposed, since saving the pseudo-social narrative is essential to their opportunist storytelling. Just because there is a mixture of étatisme and a superficial critique of “ultraliberalism” (a fairly stupid concept) in their speeches doesn't make them communist at all. They are [or rather, part of them are, because there are different lines...] for a regulated capitalism on a national basis (“economic patriotism”), with protectionism to shield small companies from the alien concurrence and globalization. Unlike communists, they have absolutely no connection with social protests or the historical labour movement—which they rather fight, see the reactions of the historical line of the FN during the labour reform protests. Fillon is going to rightfully sack half a million unproductive people (who don't even work 20 hours a week) and have the rest of them work full-time. €100B in economies. ?? Who are you referring to? | ||
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corumjhaelen
France6884 Posts
Pretty much any idea or issue can be explained in one or two paragraphs really. Well, like, no ? I do wonder what you did study... | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9235 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/y3tELk7.jpg) Their logo is Vlad the Impaler (!) superimposed on an outline of Romania + Moldova. A translation of the juiciest points: - no.1 is "stop selling land to foreigners", "land sales only to Romanian citizens with the state having preemptive rights", "inheritance for foreigners forbidden"' - no. 2 is "stop to the colonization of Romania with refugees!" (we received a whooping 200 refugees in the past 2 years, which are evidently subjugating the 19 million natives with their muslamic ray guns ) - no .6 is "stop the state parasitizing and the creation of a parallel state by Soros NGOs" (you may think this is a joke but I assure you it isn't, Soros is the ultimate boogeyman to the Eastern European right) - no. 10 is "stop the destruction of the Romanian orthodox church by the Anti-corruption agency" | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
 so, instead of trying to touch on your half assed issues, i'd rather stay here and laugh at you. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 23 2016 21:05 Dan HH wrote: - no .6 is "stop the state parasitizing and the creation of a parallel state by Soros NGOs" (you may think this is a joke but I assure you it isn't, Soros is the ultimate boogeyman to the Eastern European right) Yes, he's fairly popular too among our far right lunatics here. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
On November 23 2016 19:10 Incognoto wrote: Precisely, high debt levels are riskier, that makes sense. Austerity is paying off the debt so that we don't risk defaulting. It's lower growth, lower risk. It makes sense. It's responsible. Hedge funding is what makes most sense to me and it's what I would personally do as a person; it's what I would do as a company. No need to borrow large sums of money, hire many people, fuck up and lay everyone off. So why would governments risk more? Maybe because it's not their money they're risking. Austerity seems like responsibility 101. I'm not saying public spending should be ended, I'm saying it should be reduced and only things which actually contribute should be considered. Social measures should be reduced to their minimal amount and on the other hand, all the incentives should be there for companies to hire and for people to find work. High taxation and high social security garners the opposite effect. Low social security measures force people in fields with a sufficiently high amount of human capital available to take on jobs for low wages, which is exactly what is happening. People with low education are working longer for lower wages than they previously did, because states and unions are not keeping the price on work - the wage - up. Yet, everyone has to live on a certain minimum standard, which means the market does not work for people without high social security standards, as they have to take on any available job to survive or not become homeless. So the wages for the poorer and middle class are falling or stagnating - which are the ones who spend their money entirely on consumption on the home market - and the ones with higher incomes are increasing - which are spending large parts on it on investments, either directly by buying houses (which then in return increases inflation for those who have to rent, so the lower classes again) or through financial institutions. Now low wages in theory would only mean that we also have low prices - but since we allow excessive export, our own companies do not have any pressure to lower the prices and make goods affordable again, they are simply exporting more and more for other countries upper classes. This is why populists are gaining ground, because the people in less educated jobs are essentially losing out on globalization and liberalization matters. They provide other answers - not the right answers, but easy answers - and I cannot blame those voters, for seeking something new, since the left-winged parties, which are meant to stand up against that and got various chances, have failed in providing the necessary standards throughout Europe to make everyone profit from globalization, not just the capitalists who can run their money and investments from country to country and are hardly taxed at all. Germany is the perfect example for that. All the neoliberal economic numbers are looking fine - employment, deficit, growth - but they have a downwards spiral in wages and living standard for many. They have extreme amounts of exports as a result and therefore a growing populist extreme-left and extreme-right politically, as a result of the Social Democrats' Hartz 4 and Agenda 2010 programs being some of the keystones to sinking wages and living standards on behalf of good numbers. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18381 Posts
On November 23 2016 21:22 xM(Z wrote: you started a point out the stupid(est) contest and put yourself on top of the list so, instead of trying to touch on your half assed issues, i'd rather stay here and laugh at you. He put you on the list too. Or is Dan from the other Romania where you can point and laugh rather than be ashamed about your fellow countryman? | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9235 Posts
On November 23 2016 23:09 Acrofales wrote: He put you on the list too. Or is Dan from the other Romania where you can point and laugh rather than be ashamed about your fellow countryman? That wasn't my intention, I saw that party's platform earlier and found it amusing and bizarre enough to share it. I didn't consider that Xmz or anyone might be a fan of the party given how fringe it is, and I still can't tell if that's the case or if it's one of his random attacks. Not that the distinction even matters at this point, can't be arsed to get into it every time. | ||
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