EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 596
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
The move (the quoted article from xM(Z) is nothing new. Turkey wants to get into the EU, has been that way for years, the EU has for years basicly told them to get lost without explicitly stating that Turkey's chances to get in are 0% because, like someone else already mentioned, Germany doesn't like to shut doors. So they dangled that "if you improve a bit you might have a chance after all..." in front of them when everyone involved knew that a chance doesn't exist and it's just trying to be nice about not being too straight with how fucked they are. So it turned into a game of chicken with Turkey preferring the EU over Asia, tried to scare the EU with "omg, if you won't let me join I'll join them" (again, this is hardly anything new). Only that the EU couldn't care less so Turkey increases the scare-factor every year or so and the EU still doesn't give a fuck. This is just the next level and it would be better for everyone involved if Turkey just gives up on the EU and joins whatever else they want because EU is not going to happen for them. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
The other thing Turkey has is the Bosporus and the land bridge between the Middle East and Europe. It's important but it certainly shouldn't consider itself indispensable to anyone. Everyone pretty much shower that they're willing to slap Turkey down if it chooses to get out of line. And rightly so. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9322 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:09 Sent. wrote: I think his point was that as long as there is no ME-Turkey-Europe pipe, Russians can maintain higher gas prices in Europe because of their soft monopoly. Hard to tell with how vaguely he posts. I wonder how willing the EU is to cooperate with Turkey relative to Russia on that front though. Neither is considered to be a particularly fun country to work with by the European powers that be. Certainly a risk, but not a short term one. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:06 LegalLord wrote: Does Turkey control the only possible path that Russia could use to ship gas to Europe? There is still Nord Stream (and II) the Ukraine pipeline, and the South Stream (might be more feasible if Bulgaria takes a more pro-Russian shift). You could argue that none of those are particularly stable situations but neither is the Turkey one. It's just one more in a long list of unreliable partners for gas pipelines, an important yet increasingly less so industry in Russia. The other thing Turkey has is the Bosporus and the land bridge between the Middle East and Europe. It's important but it certainly shouldn't consider itself indispensable to anyone. Everyone pretty much shower that they're willing to slap Turkey down if it chooses to get out of line. And rightly so. Especially with Trump and if he upholds his less agressive points on Russia I can only see the situation for Russia <-> Europe trade improving as Europe follows US lead. We'd never have that much sanctions on Russia if the US wasn't pushing so hard for them. That's not something you as a leader of Germany/France ever tell people living in the eastern parts of Europe, but Germany sure as hell doesn't want to stop trading with Russia and it's hurting Germany a lot. Germany <-> Russia is kinda like USA <-> China in that point. We might not particularly like Russia or what they're doing there but we still want to trade with them because it's lots of money. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:06 LegalLord wrote: Does Turkey control the only possible path that Russia could use to ship gas to Europe? There is still Nord Stream (and II) the Ukraine pipeline, and the South Stream (might be more feasible if Bulgaria takes a more pro-Russian shift). You could argue that none of those are particularly stable situations but neither is the Turkey one. It's just one more in a long list of unreliable partners for gas pipelines, an important yet increasingly less so industry in Russia. The other thing Turkey has is the Bosporus and the land bridge between the Middle East and Europe. It's important but it certainly shouldn't consider itself indispensable to anyone. Everyone pretty much shower that they're willing to slap Turkey down if it chooses to get out of line. And rightly so. i have some objections to the assumptions you made in the first part of your post but i'll let them be for now and say that even if all of those happen, any gas/oil pipe lines going through Turkey and bringing resources from countries in the Middle East (Israel, Iran, Qatar, Saudi A., Azerbaijan and so on) would mean competition. with competition, in a best case scenario you'd have lower prices for exported energy and in the worst case, countries replacing energy suppliers all together. either way Russia goes bankrupt. about the later part: - you should read how Russia's naval forces were totally destroyed/ambushed/humiliated in/after WW2 because their fleets (Baltic, Black Sea, etc) could not back each other up in emergency cases. it takes months to get (for ex.)the Black Sea fleet to help Russia's fleet near Kamchatka. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:16 Toadesstern wrote: Especially with Trump and if he upholds his less agressive points on Russia I can only see the situation for Russia <-> Europe trade improving as Europe follows US lead. We'd never have that much sanctions on Russia if the US wasn't pushing so hard for them. That's not something you as a leader of Germany/France ever tell people living in the eastern parts of Europe, but Germany sure as hell doesn't want to stop trading with Russia and it's hurting Germany a lot. Germany <-> Russia is kinda like USA <-> China in that point. We might not particularly like Russia or what they're doing there but we still want to trade with them because it's lots of money. You know, that part reminds me of one program or other on Russian news, where they were asking both American and European representatives about the will for sanctions. The US reps swore that Europeans were acting on their own, while the Europeans quite thoroughly acknowledged that the pressure on them to maintain sanctions was very real. It's not scientific by any means, but certainly very consistent with what I have actually seen, including the bolded part. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9322 Posts
That's not something you as a leader of Germany/France ever tell people living in the eastern parts of Europe, but Germany sure as hell doesn't want to stop trading with Russia and it's hurting Germany a lot. Russia isn't THAT important as a trade partner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/ (scroll to the middle, "destinations" and "origins" parts) | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18382 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:26 LegalLord wrote: You know, that part reminds me of one program or other on Russian news, where they were asking both American and European representatives about the will for sanctions. The US reps swore that Europeans were acting on their own, while the Europeans quite thoroughly acknowledged that the pressure on them to maintain sanctions was very real. It's not scientific by any means, but certainly very consistent with what I have actually seen, including the bolded part. Well, the Netherlands is still (rightfully) pissed off by MH17, and as long as Russia plays silly buggers with the investigation into that, the Netherlands will keep lobbying for maintaining sanctions on Russia within the EU. So there's that as well. But mostly it's about oil, and that is all between the US and Russia. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:26 LegalLord wrote: on that note, the french Auchan and the german Metro have malls opened in Crimea which is under EU economical sanctions; as far as i understood they're abusing some gray lines on who owns those succursale.You know, that part reminds me of one program or other on Russian news, where they were asking both American and European representatives about the will for sanctions. The US reps swore that Europeans were acting on their own, while the Europeans quite thoroughly acknowledged that the pressure on them to maintain sanctions was very real. It's not scientific by any means, but certainly very consistent with what I have actually seen, including the bolded part. Edit: something like http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-sanctions-insig-idUSKCN11R1AN Products for sale in the Crimean stores of two European retailers are being shipped there from Russia via a ferry and port that are subject to EU sanctions, people involved in the transportation said, suggesting companies are finding ways around the punitive economic regime facing Moscow since 2014. Products carrying the brands of Germany's Metro AG and Auchan [AUCH.UL] of France are visibly for sale on the shelves of the retailers' Crimean subsidiaries. People involved in transporting the goods say they arrived via a ferry that serves the Crimean port of Kerch. European companies are banned from doing business with the ferry and the port under EU sanctions imposed on Russia after it annexed Crimea from Ukraine. Both retailers said they were not violating the sanctions because the stores are operated by their Russian subsidiaries, which are not subject to the EU sanctions. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:33 Sent. wrote: Russia isn't THAT important as a trade partner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/ (scroll to the middle, "destinations" and "origins" parts) okay perhaps a slight exaggeration on how much it hurts Germany but it's there. If there's no Gas from Russia we have people freezing during the winters and we have to get it elsewhere, probably more expensive. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6302 Posts
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
The European Parliament on Tuesday backed an EU plan to deepen coordination of member states' defence policies and rely less on the United States, driven in part by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's suggestion he may scale back protection of NATO allies. EU lawmakers voted 369-255 in favour of plans to increase European spending on military missions, as well as developing and sharing assets like helicopters. There were 70 abstentions. While the parliament's backing is not binding on European governments, it represents a sign of cross-party political support for the European Union to pursue its most ambitious defence plan in decades after years of spending cuts. ... The EU defence plan proposed in September by France and Germany had been months in the making, but Britain's vote in June to leave the EU and Trump's election on Nov. 8 have lent extra momentum to the initiative. ... Britain has blocked plans for joint EU defence for years, objecting to a European army run from Brussels. France, which along with Britain is Europe's main military power, now sees an opportunity with Germany to push a so-called Common Defence Union, while stressing that this is not an "EU army". ... EU leaders are expected to discuss the joint defence plans at a summit in Brussels in December, before tasking their governments and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to flesh out the proposals. Ideas include creating a new planning headquarters to oversee training missions, deploying military crisis-response forces, working together to develop new weapons systems and annual reviews of defence spending across the bloc. The EU insists it is not duplicating NATO, but wants to be able to act independently of the U.S.-led military alliance when necessary. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On November 23 2016 02:33 Sent. wrote: Russia isn't THAT important as a trade partner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/ (scroll to the middle, "destinations" and "origins" parts) Our total trade volume with the Netherlands is bigger than our trade volume with China? Huh the Dutch sure are industrious people, that's pretty crazy | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18382 Posts
On November 23 2016 03:07 Nyxisto wrote: Our total trade volume with the Netherlands is bigger than our trade volume with China? Huh the Dutch sure are industrious people, that's pretty crazy Probably not; we have the largest port in Europe, and a pretty big airport as well, both with a great connection to Germany, so German import from otherwhere tends to use Dutch logistics, and I think that's what you're seeing there. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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