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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 21 2016 08:31 Nyxisto wrote: How do the Socialists have only 10% of the electorate? How did Hollande win the election? Sarkozy ran for reelection, Hollande simply made promises (hope, change, justice, blabla). | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
(Marginally you could get some Le Pen votes from left-wingers using it as a “f*ck the system” card, but it shouldn't matter much in the bigger picture.) You are understating the discourse of the national front under Philippot imo. Especially against a heavy liberal like Fillon, who would cut down most of our welfare to reduce the debt : if the FN play intelligently, I could see a lot of leftist voting FN. Everything is really open, most candidates will have to clarify their stance, especially in regard to europe : this will be the key of the election (since all candidates will have a very authoritarian discourse on security, for sure). | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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stilt
France2751 Posts
On November 21 2016 08:31 Nyxisto wrote: How do the Socialists have only 10% of the electorate? How did Hollande win the election? Hollande is the most hated president in french history, his party is a shadow of his former self and extremely deconsidered, the last time a french leader has been so much hated must have been january 21 1793. The PS and ecolo party are completely shattered. Moreover, the bipartism has never been that strong and the vote fluctuate greatly since the new orientation taken by the fn in 2007, they basically use a patriotic and leftist rhetoric and are not on the purely racial provocation like father Lepen. And this works despite all their flaws, Philippot is some kind of Mitterand, a cynical asshole but a pretty intelligent one. What ticket is Macron actually running on btw? I know that he started this En Marche movement but will he run as independent or Socialist? He will run as independent, he wants to transcend the parties. But he is seen as an arrogant and shaddy idiot. Too much linked with Europe and finance to get credible to win the cake. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 21 2016 08:41 WhiteDog wrote: You are understating the discourse of the national front under Philippot imo. Especially against a heavy liberal like Fillon, who would cut down most of our welfare to reduce the debt : if the FN play intelligently, I could see a lot of leftist voting FN. Everything is really open, most candidates will have to clarify their stance, especially in regard to europe : this will be the key of the election (since all candidates will have a very authoritarian discourse on security, for sure). Every informed left-winger knows that the confusionnist, pseudo-social discourse of the FN is just blabla to get elected, that's one of the old tricks from the far right. Philippot is a minority in the FN; the real, historical line in the back simply waits the announced failure of 2017 to kick him out and purge the party from Philippot's influence. On top of that, the FN electorate cares less about economy or Europe than about immigration, islam, identity and insecurity (all linked in their minds, naturally...), so Le Pen will at least be forced to talk a bit about those, and this will help reminding left-wingers why they should never vote for the FN. On November 21 2016 08:48 Nyxisto wrote: What ticket is Macron actually running on btw? I know that he started this En Marche movement but will he run as independent or Socialist? Independent. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
Confusionnism is a term I can't take seriously. Gorcuff is using it like every two lines he writes : a concept used to kill the debate. Note that many people put well received left wing writters in the "confusionnist" camp (Lordon, Michéa, etc.). Those times are over. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + This new culture had to be syncretistic. Syncretism is not only, as the dictionary says, “the combination of different forms of belief or practice”; such a combination must tolerate contradictions. Each of the original messages contains a silver of wisdom, and whenever they seem to say different or incompatible things it is only because all are alluding, allegorically, to the same primeval truth. As a consequence, there can be no advancement of learning. Truth has been already spelled out once and for all, and we can only keep interpreting its obscure message. One has only to look at the syllabus of every fascist movement to find the major traditionalist thinkers. The Nazi gnosis was nourished by traditionalist, syncretistic, occult elements. The most influential theoretical source of the theories of the new Italian right, Julius Evola, merged the Holy Grail with The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, alchemy with the Holy Roman and Germanic Empire. The very fact that the Italian right, in order to show its open-mindedness, recently broadened its syllabus to include works by De Maistre, Guenon, and Gramsci, is a blatant proof of syncretism. If you browse in the shelves that, in American bookstores, are labeled as New Age, you can find there even Saint Augustine who, as far as I know, was not a fascist. But combining Saint Augustine and Stonehenge—that is a symptom of Ur-Fascism. This kind of melting of contradictory beliefs, lies, conspiracy theories and ideas is at the very core of many of the new right-wing movements which makes them very scary. I think the whole essay is worth reading again anyway. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1995/06/22/ur-fascism/ | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
Confusionnism is totally different : it is used to discredit specific arguments on the basis that it is also used by the far right. For exemple, Frederic Lordon wrote a book called Imperium, and various other books, arguing that without a state - the power of the multitude - all is lost (we can't achieve emancipation). The guy is a clear socialist, who try to combine Spinoza with Marx to think about desires and passions in our capitalist society. Some people from the extreme left argued that he was a "confusionnist" because he had no internationalist vision ... It's like saying to Jaurès' corpse that he is part of the national front because he thought that internationalism was only possible through a certain degree of patriotism ... Michéa is criticized (even by Lordon ! lol) because he valorize the qualities of the worker class (like a classical marxist - altho he is doing on anthropological ground by saying that they have a "common decency" - an orwellian concept), arguing that the solidarity that they display on their daily life is the basis for the values that the left must defend ... And he is also categorized as a dangerous confusionnist by some part of the extreme left ... The term confusionnism is used to KILL NUANCE and agglomerate various ideas in a filthy box that no one should touch, and sadly, by using it, the left is losing most of what made its legitimacy in the last centuries (the idea of Republic, the french universalism and the citizenship, the laïcité and anticlericalism, etc.). Your quote of Eco is very good. The extreme right love Gramsci and it's a real problem indeed. | ||
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stilt
France2751 Posts
On November 21 2016 09:03 TheDwf wrote: Every informed left-winger knows that the confusionnist, pseudo-social discourse of the FN is just blabla to get elected, that's one of the old tricks from the far right. Philippot is a minority in the FN; the real, historical line in the back simply waits the announced failure of 2017 to kick him out and purge the party from Philippot's influence. On top of that, the FN electorate cares less about economy or Europe than about immigration, islam, identity and insecurity (all linked in their minds, naturally...), so Le Pen will at least be forced to talk a bit about those, and this will help reminding left-wingers why they should never vote for the FN. Independent. You really seem to live in liberal bubble, beware, it could explode rather quickly. The fn axes his critics toward the multiculturalism, a model of society linked to globalization, that's largely exonerate them of biological racism, maybe not from you but for a lot people who are totally defiant of the parisian elite and their networks, that's ok. Moreover, well, thinking that the economy is not the priority of the FN electorat shows clearly you have no idea what you talk about. Ppl who are in a lot of precarity vote fn, old communists bastion vote fn. Most of my fucking family who voted communist in 2007 voted fn in the last election, my best friend in the 10-14 votes fn, not by racism, but because they have the feeling like the elite with their deregulation did everything wrong, it's time to vote against. I know the racial analysis is pretty easy to do as most of the left is now full on the communautarism, anipatriotism and internationalism (you really have a great responsability on the fn's rise). It revals how much most of the left and far left is deconnected of reality. As said Philippot, 15% of the fn electorat comes from the basis, the rest are just the unhappies. All in all, the fn vote is becoming a vote against the bourgeoisie. Analysing this as a racial one is laughable or rather, made me desesperate, happily, there still is Melenchon who remains coherent and strong with his jacobinist legacy, he is the only one in this ocean of pure mediocrity. However, it is pretty certain that the racism is in progress because this is still the major composant of the FN and a way of resistance against the elite for many, the fresh fn electors will be soon or later. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 21 2016 09:20 WhiteDog wrote: The left is much more fragmented than what you make it seems. Confusionnism is a term I can't take seriously. Gorcuff is using it like every two lines he writes : a concept used to kill the debate. Note that many people put well received left wing writters in the "confusionnist" camp (Lordon, Michéa, etc.). Those times are over. Then replace it with opportunism, electoralism, demagogy, ... The left is fragmented, but precisely one of the few (rare) things all its currents have in common is their deep aversion for the far right. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 21 2016 09:42 stilt wrote: You really seem to live in liberal bubble, beware, it could explode rather quickly. The fn axes his critics toward the multiculturalism, a model of society linked to globalization, that's largely exonerate them of biological racism, maybe not from you but for a lot people who are totally defiant of the parisian elite and their networks, that's ok. Moreover, well, thinking that the economy is not the priority of the FN electorat shows clearly you have no idea what you talk about. Ppl who are in a lot of precarity vote fn, old communists bastion vote fn. Most of my fucking family who voted communist in 2007 voted fn in the last election, my best friend in the 10-14 votes fn, not by racism, but because they have the feeling like the elite with their deregulation did everything wrong, it's time to vote against. I know the racial analysis is pretty easy to do as most of the left is now full on the communautarism, anipatriotism and internationalism (you really have a great responsability on the fn's rise). It revals how much most of the left and far left is deconnected of reality. As said Philippot, 15% of the fn electorat comes from the basis, the rest are just the unhappies. All in all, the fn vote is becoming a vote against the bourgeoisie. Analysing this as a racial one is laughable or rather, made me desesperate, happily, there still is Melenchon who remains coherent and strong with his jacobinist legacy, he is the only one in this ocean of pure mediocrity. However, it is pretty certain that the racism is in progress because this is still the major composant of the FN and a way of resistance against the elite for many, the fresh fn electors will be soon or later. Not my fault if immigration systematically comes first when FN voters are asked what's their main concern in politics, you know... There are enough studies/polls about this, which beats your “but my sister!” argument. http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_svv_2012_-_23_avril_2012_-_10h.pdf (See for instance p. 18.) http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/3519-1-study_file.pdf (page 6) http://www.ifop.com/?option=com_publication&type=poll&id=3504 http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/france/2017-les-sujets-economiques-et-sociaux-au-coeur-des-preoccupations-des-francais-1032927.html For 64% of the French people, economic and social themes are more important than identity & security. For 76% of the FN electorate, identity & security matter more. (Sorry for people who don't speak French.) If there was that much equivalence between the old communist and the FN vote, Le Pen and Mélenchon's electorates would be much more porous, which is not the case. New FN = old PC is one of those clichés mainstream medias love to spout nonstop so that centrists and pseudo-reasonables can keep singing “extremes are all the same!” The transfer phenomenon existed, but it's been exaggerated. The FN is there since the 1980s, they didn't wait the Philippot line to exist and score decently... The fact that you put me in the “liberal left” case is beyond hilarious, almost stopped reading there. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
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Makro
France16890 Posts
On November 21 2016 08:31 WhiteDog wrote: He lost all support during the last 5 years. It heavily depends on the person the socialists nominate tho. Here is a poll for exemple for the 1 turn of the presidential election (from here : http://www.tns-sofres.com/publications/presidentielle-2017-intentions-de-vote-17-avril-2016) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/R8U9CmZ.png) As you see, by itself Le Pen + Dupont Aignan have 40 % of the votes intentions. And we know polls usually understate the weight of the far right. lol i do seriously wonder how can you fuck up that much, the left has the easiest way to win, considering the right is really divided de facto between the right and the far right (gift of mitterand), and yet they will be completely crushed the left really means nothing nowaday it's quite amazing i just hope it will be an electric shock to propose something new otherwise that's gonna be worse | ||
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Oshuy
Netherlands529 Posts
On November 21 2016 08:31 Nyxisto wrote: How do the Socialists have only 10% of the electorate? How did Hollande win the election? Hollande got 28.6 in the first round in 2012. Prior to that, socialist candidate got 25.9% in 2007 ; 16.2% in 2002 (not qualified for runoffs) ; 23.3% in 1995 ; 34.1% in 1988 (Mitterrand's second term), ... But that does not mean the party lost half its electorate between 1988 and 2002 to regain it between 2002 and 2012. People vote for a candidate and/or for his ideas more than they vote for a party (PS has 70k members out of 50M voters). When several candidates seem to have close to the same ideas, votes get split among them based on campaign and candidate. Being the PS candidates provides some exposure and endorsement by known politicians (some of whom the voters do not hate), but a score above 10% is not guaranteed. In 2002, there were a lot of left-wing candidates (9 total) and Jospin (PS) did not manage to convince the voters. PS still got the best score out of the 9 with 16.2, but two on the right side (FN and RPR) made it to the runoffs. Situation for 2017 as it stands seems similar: Split vote between Mélenchon, Macron and the winner of the PS primaries (with scraps for a bunch of far left candidates), leading to a runoff between FN and the winner of right primaries. New elements this time around are that the PS candidate might not be the highest score for the left wing (a first since 1968) and FN might get first overall. (then again, 7 months is a long time when we do not even know the candidates yet) | ||
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Laurens
Belgium4548 Posts
Fillon 30%, Juppé 29%, Sarkozy 29% (conducted by Ipsos 18 Nov) This was also the first poll ever where Fillon got more than Juppé. Actual results: 44%, 28%, 20% Another glorious loss for polls. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6237 Posts
On November 21 2016 07:21 LegalLord wrote: I suppose my original statement was a wee bit open to interpretation in that regard. I suppose I should have said "don't mistake circumstance for causality." That was really my point. Democracy or a democratic-like system of government has its strengths and its weaknesses. It's definitely not a one-size-fits-all model, and it very much fails in cases where there is internal instability or a foreign power which can for all intents and purposes decide those elections in its favor. Nevertheless it has a lot of well-acknowledged strengths and there is a good reason why it is pretty popular these days. But it certainly isn't the cause of the success of nations because there are plenty of counterexamples of both kinds (unsuccessful democratic nations, successful undemocratic nations) that really make that statement contrary-to-fact. Would developing to the first world be enough to surpass Germany? On absolute terms, not per capita. The only difference would be population. There's nothing stopping a country from developing the same strong fundamentals as rich countries. It's obviously not an easy process but possible. Democracy is actually linked to higher growth. You're right in that it's not the only factor in economic development but it's still pretty significant. Our baseline results use a dynamic panel model for GDP, and show that democratizations increase GDP per capita by about 20% in the long run. We find similar results when we estimate the effect of democratizations on annual GDP, controlling for the GDP dynamics linearly or using the estimated propensity to democratize based on past GDP dynamics Our results suggest that democracy increases future GDP by encouraging investment, increasing schooling, inducing economic reforms, improving public goods provision, and reducing social unrest. We find little support for the view that democracy is a constraint on economic growth for less developed economies. economics.mit.edu | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 21 2016 10:39 Makro wrote: lol i do seriously wonder how can you fuck up that much, the left has the easiest way to win, considering the right is really divided de facto between the right and the far right (gift of mitterand), and yet they will be completely crushed the left really means nothing nowaday it's quite amazing i just hope it will be an electric shock to propose something new otherwise that's gonna be worse The left was always a minority under the Vth Republic, with the exception of 1981 the right systematically has more votes than the left in the first round of the presidential. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://img4.hostingpics.net/pics/342126Pourcentagevoixgauchedroite.jpg) % of left-right votes in the first round of the presidential Red = total left Blue = total right France leans to the right, so there's never anything easy for the left; especially given that its total in the first round swings from 35 to 45%. It's actually the right which has to fail badly to lose the presidential. You also have to consider that the far right “stole” some themes from the left (adopting an antiliberal speech, criticizing financial capitalism, etc.). Then you factor in the internal divisions from the left, add the fact that a government which claims to be left completely failed this mandate on nearly everything, and you have the gloomy-looking picture of next year. On November 21 2016 19:17 Laurens wrote: So from what I can find, the most recent poll had: Fillon 30%, Juppé 29%, Sarkozy 29% (conducted by Ipsos 18 Nov) This was also the first poll ever where Fillon got more than Juppé. Actual results: 44%, 28%, 20% Another glorious loss for polls. Polls actually saw correctly his spectacular rise during the last week. Of course they had too little time after the third debate (3 days before the vote) to predict a clear win; plus pollsters insisted on the fact that there was quite a lot of unknown regarding how many people would come, and who they would be. Not to mention the last minute “bandwagon” effect with Fillon's sharp rise. In the end of the day, for a first time (no UMP primary before), it wasn't the worst “failure” from polls. Edit—by the way, near-final results: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://images.scribblelive.com/2016/11/21/e6484360-1075-4b42-813f-ebffa1b14a91.png) | ||
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nojok
France15845 Posts
France leans to the right, so there's never anything easy for the left That's true but with a strong attachment to our expensive health care and retirement plan. Juppé's result is probably linked to his 1995 plan on changing our retirement sysem. | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On November 21 2016 21:25 nojok wrote: Fillon reminds me of Jospin, he was the Prime Minister of a shady President, he does seem hard working and not very sympathic. He's not been involved in any judiciary problem either. As a left voter, I won't have any problem voting for him against Le Pen in the second turn. Sarkozy or Juppé would have been a bitter vote given their antecedents with justice. That's true but with a strong attachment to our expensive health care and retirement plan. Juppé's result is probably linked to his 1995 plan on changing our retirement sysem. You'll have no problem voting for someone with a borderline reactionary program as far as society issues are concerned ?... | ||
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nojok
France15845 Posts
On November 21 2016 21:32 OtherWorld wrote: You'll have no problem voting for someone with a borderline reactionary program as far as society issues are concerned ?... Given that it should be Le Pen or Les Républicains's candidtate, I'll be happy to be able to vote for someone without problems with justice which I agree is kinda sad to be happy about what should be mandatory. | ||
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