EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 585
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 17 2016 00:32 WhiteDog wrote: The UMP (and LR) is a fusion of the right RPR and the center UDI so they are supposed to be center right. Yeah, and the PS is supposed to be left... | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On November 17 2016 00:41 TheDwf wrote: Yeah, and the PS is supposed to be left... They totally are. What they are not is socialist. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 17 2016 00:18 Dan HH wrote: I agree that it is a statement of American policy, but I don't think it's wrong for governments to make such statements. The stance of your allies is a relevant factor in an election, and like any other factor it can be used both ways domestically. Well if we disagree on the fact that making a public statement of a nation's policy on foreign elections is something of a questionable / reckless move, I think there's a fundamental disagreement here. | ||
Laurens
Belgium4548 Posts
On November 16 2016 23:59 Big J wrote: I haven't been to Graz in ages. There are some far-left groups which do this to any FPÖ posters, which is the most stupid thing in the world, because by declaring them Nazis they can hide behind the Prohibition Act (against Nationalsozialism) and can basically say: "Since we aren't forbidden we are not Nazis, therefore the Nazis are the ones who don't respect our opinion. Vote against them." (There is an infamous quote by the FPÖ-leader Strache who said: "We are the new jews.") I guess Graz is a lost cause for them, although Styria as a whole is pretty good for them and Hofer. All the large towns have voted Van der Bellen. Austria looks pretty much like the Brexit map if you turn it by 90 degrees. The rich countries on the left voted progressiv in the election and Vienna stands as a lone beacon of hope like London on the other side. It's the same situation as everywhere around the world, the (best of the) young people are leaving the rural areas for the towns to study and get jobs. The people which are left behind are the boom generation, which are then left in a slowly overaging enviroment without their children and the traditional family strings and a bad local economy. We have the most refugees per capita in Europe as far as I understand. We would have to kid ourselves not to acknowledge that. We are in a situation in which it is really hard to argue for what our government has been doing in the past years - which is almost nothing, since the conservatives have been in power for 30-years now and gotten everything what they wanted from the social democrats, who had no alternative as they do not want to form a coalition with FPÖ, but gotten a lot of chancellors out of the coalition with the conservatives. The question is, what do you do when so many refugees are coming and the EU does not split the work? Well, you build concentration camps like Orban and try to pretend you are saving Western values, not destroying them. Or you accept the situation and try to make the best of it. FPÖ wants the first solution, the social democrats (and the greens and the liberals) want the second solution and the conservatives have no clue what they want and just block the government, which then drags them and the social democrats down. (while Merkel in Germany also tries to go the second way together with the social democrats) Interesting post, cheers. Will be interesting to see what happens with the re-elections. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Makro
France16890 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 17 2016 02:16 Makro wrote: macron doesn't matter, juppé vs lepen second round juppé free win it's expected Balladur had won in 1995 Jospin was in the second round in 2002 The “yes” would win the 2005 referendum DSK had won in 2012 | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
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maartendq
Belgium3115 Posts
On November 17 2016 03:09 WhiteDog wrote: An ex criminal who is a liberal, a globalist and a technocrat. Yeah pretty close to Merkel. Isn't that the common thing with French presidents? Practically all of them had a past. It's practically a necessity if you want to get anywhere in French politics. | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
On November 17 2016 01:12 LegalLord wrote: So Hofer is acting as president (well, as one of three) right now, right? Do people consider that that gives him some form of "incumbency" status, or not really? I would say he is using it to gain media presence and work on one of his biggest weaknesses, which is that he was inexperienced internationally and his and his party's anti-EU propaganda has created the view, that they are not good for Austria's international position, which is something the VdB campaign has been heavily emphasizing on. So now he is visting other right-winged countries in his role as part of the presidental commitee and pretending that it would be good for Austria if we would side with countries with a third of our GDP with completely detrimental interests like Hungary, which are trying to stop their highly-educated migration towards us, and are trying to suck our companies towards them. How the people perceive it is hard to tell. Since it is a re-election I believe there won't be a massive change in people's voting choice. The question will be, which side can mobilize better, which is really hard to tell. The higher educated people, high-school diploma or university degree, are usually the ones that vote anyways and they are voting 70-80% Van der Bellen. My guess is, that a low turnout rate is going to help Van der Bellen, but in general I would consider Hofer the favorite, simply because it is a traditional catch-all party candidate with much bigger funds against a Green candidate and FPÖ's propaganda man is one of the highest skilled and most experienced political strategists I have ever seen. | ||
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Laurens
Belgium4548 Posts
On November 17 2016 02:30 TheDwf wrote: Balladur had won in 1995 Jospin was in the second round in 2002 The “yes” would win the 2005 referendum DSK had won in 2012 Yea if there's anything we've learned in 2016 so far it's that expectations and polls are to be taken with a grain of salt. The most recent polls suggest a Juppé - Le Pen 2nd round and for that particular scenario the polls showed 70-30 in favour of Juppé. Of course this was before Trump. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 17 2016 03:00 Nyxisto wrote: where does Juppe stand politically, is he like a French Merkel? More like Thatcher. He wants to suppress the ISF, raise the TVA, cut taxes (trickle down...), raise the legal retirement age to 65 years (up from 62), go back to the 39h week, make it easier to lay off people, reduce public spending by 100 billions, ... | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6236 Posts
On November 17 2016 03:57 Laurens wrote: Yea if there's anything we've learned in 2016 so far it's that expectations and polls are to be taken with a grain of salt. The most recent polls suggest a Juppé - Le Pen 2nd round and for that particular scenario the polls showed 70-30 in favour of Juppé. Of course this was before Trump. Polls except for exit polls have always been unreliable. 2016 is just a year where they've been wrong more than usual. | ||
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/11/16/world/europe/ap-eu-germany-turkish-soldiers.html?_r=0 It doesnt look like much at first glance but when I think about it it seems like a very dangerous thing. Giving asylum to those soldiers could kill most diplomatic ties to turkey, no? | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
There were quite a few diplomats already who successfully applied for asylum before and after that declaration. Why would we do anything different here? | ||
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
On November 17 2016 07:51 mahrgell wrote: German government had announced about 2 weeks ago that we would grant asylum to those being in danger from the Erdogan regime. (Of course with the limitation that those are not considered terrorists in Germany) There were quite a few diplomats already who successfully applied for asylum before and after that declaration. Why would we do anything different here? Isnt that like saying turkey is not a safe country or perhaps even a dangerous country because their own citizens have to fear unjust punishment? How could you stamp a country as dangerous and at the same time consider talks about that country joining the EU? Or just strengthen ties to turkey in general? | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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